Buying Strategies - Risk vs Reward

Welcome to the Sports Card Lessons Podcast with your host, Big Ken, a retired teacher bringing you lessons each week. He's learned in the hobby by taking you behind the table and inside the mind of a dealer and a collector. Sit back and relax. There won't be a test. The only thing being graded here is the cards. Welcome to the Sports Card Lessons Podcast. I'm your host, Big Ken. Whether you're watching on YouTube or listening on a streaming service, please, like, subscribe. Hit that notification bell so you'll be notified whenever I drop any new content. What is going on? Thanks for being here. Happy Saturday. Yes, I said Saturday. You're getting a day early this week. I planned it out this way because I went to a show today. I want to go to one tomorrow, and I figure if I get this done today, I don't have to rush home from the show tomorrow. But I just got back from a local show here in Connecticut, one of a couple shows that are. I mean, we're just crazy with shows now. I know there was at least three shows today. I know there's a couple shows tomorrow. There's also the. The big show in Marlboro, Mass. The. The Northeast Sports Expo, the Thousand Table show, which I've seen some videos from that look like the. The line to get in looks like just reminded me of the lines in Chicago last year getting into the national. But the show I went to here in Connecticut, I have to say I was a bit disappointed. This is a. A new. A show in a new location. This promoter does shows other places, but it was a new location and next town over from me. So super excited that I didn't have to go drive an hour to go check this show out. But I have to say I was a bit disappointed. The percentage of TCG to sports cards was overwhelming. It was probably 75% TCG to sports cards. So a little disappointing for me to see that. But I think, right. All these shows, and if I. I don't know where you are, but if you're in an area that, you know, has the ability to have a lot of shows, I really think all these shows now are all just able just to run up against each other and nobody cares. It used to be, oh, you know, this person has this show on this day, so I'm gonna plan mine a different day. I don't want it now. People don't care. It's just like, show on top of show on top of show. And. And it's almost as if people are purposely saying, oh, this guy's Doing a show, I'm gonna same day, you know, just, just because. And I think that's how you're able to sell. You have these 50 table shows, 70 table shows, 100 table show, right? And you're walking in now. I think the TCG market has exploded so much that they're able to sell all these and continue to hold these shows. So I mean we'll see, we'll see moving forward what these percentages look like. But right now it's, they, a lot of these, these local shows and these new pop up shows are, are heavy TCG. This show started at 11am it was at a hotel, was a 5 $5 admission, regular admission at 11, $10 if you wanted to get in at 10:30. The early bird. Now most every show you know, I go to always starts early, you know, between 8 and 9 in the morning, 10 at the latest. So this one was at 11am 11am start time, 10:30 for early bird, but 11am for general admission. And I can't tell you how many people came in after me wheeling their carts in to set up their tables. I'm like, come on man, this Show's starting at 8, 8:30am I could see you're running a little late. 11:00am start time. What? That's just disrespectful. Not only other promoter, right? But to the, the attendees who pay the extra $5 to watch you set up then you don't even get to see what's in your case yet, man. 11:00am Start time and people are running late. I don't even know where to begin with that. I do know some promoters. You're not getting invited back the next time regardless of the excuse. I saw a few new people set up at the show that, that you know, I've never seen them before but I heard them talking to other people saying oh yeah, you know, somebody said wow, you're a dealer. And they're like ah, it's first time, first time setting up. And there was a number of first timers there, you know, you could tell. I saw one young kid he 11am he's you know, got a stack of cards and he's pricing each card individually and putting it in the case. And I said, oh, let me give you a little tip. I know it's your first time but you really should have these, these cards priced the night before, right? Because most of this mo from experience. Most of your sales at a show come in the first hour and the last hour. A lot happens during the day. I'm not saying you don't make sales during the day, but first hour and the last hour of the show is usually the, the bulk of your sales gotta have got to be ready. Got to be ready at 11. Nobody can see a stack of cards that, that you've got sitting there that you're, that you've got your price. Gun out the price and looking up the prices at the same time. You want to be ready for those buyers when they come through the door when that show opens. I'll tell you one reason I find walking shows and buying cards difficult. And I, I understand, I understand the business, believe me, I understand the business. But I'm used to buying cards in advance, right? I'm buying them. And I've talked about this many years, right? I buy the cards, you know, in December, January, February for football season and, and in the summer, you know, and, and the fall for wnba and, you know, in the summer, if I'm buying basketball, I'm going to buy it now or in the summer, right, to. To sell in the fall. So when the mark, right, just, just common sense, when the market's down, buy their cards, hold them to the markets up and sell them. I mean, trying to make the best profit, you know, possible on there. So right now, right now I'm showing up at shows. What am I looking to buy? I'm. I'm going, I'm going to the national next month, right? So in my mind, I'm saying, look, if I can pick up some more football cards to add to my inventory for Chicago, let's, let's do it. So as I'm walking around these shows, I mean, that's, that's where my mindset is right now. But prices are up now, right? Dealers demanding close to current comps on cards. And you know what? Some shows, you can do that. Like if you're, if you're set up at a show like, you know, I was last weekend, and there's this sign paying 100% and you've got repackers roaming through the room, you know, rolling around the rooms and buying up, you know, and paying strong on those, you can demand more money for those. And it really depends too, on what you're into the cards for, right? But for me to pay strong now just doesn't make sense. It doesn't make sense to, to pay strong now for something I'm going to sell within a month, right, to, to take to Chicago and sell, you know, for, for that 5%, maybe 10%, right? If you're paying strong, can't do it. I just think that money is more valuable in my pocket than, than trying to buy inventory now because I bought these cards, I have a lot of these same cards already that I purchased. And I think to myself, wow, is the. And I start re comping them, I'm like, wow, this is where this, this card is at now. Like, yeah, I could get a second one, but not at that price. Not when I know what I paid four months ago or five months ago for that same card. Can't do it does not make sense. Money, that money is better off just in my pocket than put it out for. Hopefully that I'll make a few percentage, 5%, 4%, 7%, you know, a month from now. That's the way my mind works. And I know people are going to say, what, are you kidding me? You know, if you're making profit, you're making money. I completely understand that. But you know, I could get lucky and the card could spike up, right? I'd be like, wow, look at me. I knew what I was doing, right? Bought this card a few weeks ago, now look at it. Absolutely. But it can also go the other way too. And it's more likely if you've been in this hobby long enough. You know, cards are more likely to go down or stay the same than for them to go up, especially in a short amount of time. Unless you're doing a little prospecting or, you know, you, you're inside information, you're saying, look, I know this guy, he's going to do well because of this receiver or because of this quarterback or because, you know, the new, the, the line of scrimmage been improved, he's going to run better, whatever. Right? But those are a lot of variables that go into such a small percentage that I don't need to worry about. Right? It's, it's, it, it's things I'm passing on right now. I don't mind making those swings in December, January 3, February on players and cards I believe in that I think are really going to improve, you know, or not they're going to improve, but the value versus what I'm buying at is going to improve when it comes time to selling that card. And of course, there's a little prospecting, a little thought involved, like who do you think, and I talk about this all the time, who do we think that next year's quarterback's going to be? Who do we think is going to be all the rage going into the national and who, who's going to have the biggest Spike, you know, coming out of training camp, getting ready for, you know, the NFL season kickoff, right? And a lot of prospecting, a lot of speculation on that, too. It's hard enough to do that in December, January, February, it's even harder to do that, you know, to be able to try to do that in June, beginning of July, where we are right now in such a short time frame. And people will tell you, I know exactly whose cards are going up, you know, okay, maybe you do, but I, I bet you there's no guarantee that that same player doesn't go to training camp and tear an acl, right? Or, or, or break a foot or an ankle or something, right? So there's no guarantee on that. And right now, too, and I just mentioned this a minute ago, just knowing the prices, pricing cards out, I mean, I'm creating my spreadsheet, all my inventory, and looking at the comps, also knowing I've written on every card what I paid for every card that I'm putting in there, right? So looking to see how well I've done. So this is real time for me right now as I'm doing this, saying, okay, yep, did well on that. Did well. This guy really didn't move that much. Oh, what's going on? Why is this card, you know, cheaper than what I paid for it, right? So I get to go through this, and I do this every year. I get to go through it and see how well I've done, you know, fine tuning those skills. But they're not perfect. They're never perfect. You just try to make the best decisions possible. And it also lets me see in real time whose market has done better than others. And then try to figure out why. Why is it, why is this person's market, why is this card going up, right? Why. Why is a Brock Purdy card, you know, going up? But a Jaden Daniels card isn't like, it just gets. Let you look at that to see where. And it may be just certain cards, you may say, hey, look, these cards here, they haven't really moved that much in price, but that player's market is doing better. Okay, let's go look at the pop count. Let's see what the, the gem rate was on that card. Is there, is there 700? Is there a thousand of those cards? Is there only 25 or 40 of those cars? I mean, a lot of that, you know, comes into play on that, too. And I look at that a lot when I'm buying cards. POP counts, especially graded cards. And I love to buy those PSA 10s, right? Love the PSA 10s and, and love to look at those pop counts. Because if I'm buying a card in December and the, and the gem rate, the. The PSA 10s are say at 70 or 65, I mean, between December and July, that that count is not going to, you know, blow up. It's going to be there. And especially if it's a numbered card, even better, right? But it, you know, lets me look up, look to see who's increased, who d, who's decreased, right? Whose market has gone up, whose market has gone down, whose market is stale, right? Just nobody cares. You know, most, most of our information after the super bowl, right, is draft time, trade, free agency, trades with football, the draft. But then we have to wait for NFL training camps, right, where we'll wait for the news to come out of there. And interestingly enough, that training camp happens the same. Those. All those camps are happening the same week of the national. So that becomes real time, right? So sometimes, you know, there's somebody that says something or a video goes viral of somebody, and all of a sudden it could spike somebody's market up real time right there during that week. So you could go in there with your cards priced. The next thing you know is a video of somebody doing something amazing and bang, that goes up. Could be the opposite, right? Could be, oh, somebody tore their ACL out for the season. Oh, my God. Now those cars just tanked, right? So the only time for me up to this point, right, and, and I've done this for years as a dealer, but the only time that changes for me, where I'm buying in the moment, buying in their season, right, is when I'm buying to sell the same day at a show or within that week of a show or getting ready for a show. For instance, last week, EC3 con, I bought a number of easy FUD cards, right? I knew she was going to be, you know, pretty hot there, that people are going to be looking for her cards. Bought a bunch of cards, right? Put them all in one touches, lined them up right across the front row of the case, sold them all, right? Wasn't really worried. Like, I couldn't even go back and tell you what percentage of profit I made on that, whether. Whether one was 5% or 10% or 8%, right? Because it didn't make a difference. Because in my mind, what I made a profit and that's all that counted, right? I sold them at a fair price. I bought them at a fair price. I sold them At a fair price. The people. I was happy to have them and sell them, the people who bought them were happy. Everybody was happy at the end of all those transactions, right? And, and. Something that moving forward with me is what I need to try to do more of, right? I know I struggle with myself because I'm always taking big swings. Like, I, that's. That. That's the kind of person I am, right? I'm. I take big. Whatever I do, I'm always swinging for the fences. So the bigger, the bigger swing is, the longer you're waiting to. On selling a card or buying a card and prospecting, right? Things like that. But I have to dial that back a bit. Not going to be so much, you know, moving forward. I don't want to be buying more for future, but more for present, right? And kind of switching it up a little, you know, especially after the national, for me, I'm going to be buying, you know, more, more for the, the. The present versus the. Versus the future. The percentages I'm starting to notice on some cards holding for three months or six months versus selling it immediately. Some cards do much better than others. And I'm really starting to understand what, which cards have the biggest swings and why. So there's a lot of what I'm going to call filler cards that I've purchased that I've held, that I dropped in the box. Going to the national, going to the national, that's the. That inventory. And I pull them out. I'm like, I. I could have probably just sold these cards immediately and just taken that smaller piece of profit, right? And. And moved up into something a little bit bigger that has the opportunity for a bigger swing. And I think moving forward, that's going to be my mentality. And that's why, that's why I'm figuring it out this year. Because I have so much inventory and I'm really, really being able, getting, getting. Being able to understand what cards I could have just done without. Like, it didn't matter if I sold them then or I sold them now versus the cards where I'm like, wow, this was a. This was definitely a good pickup. This was a smart buy. And I'm starting to understand a little bit better, you know, why that, why that was a smart buy. Minimal risk, right? If you're buying, if you're buying that same day to sell or buying that week to sell that week, right? Profit's going to be minimal, right? There's just going to be small, small percentages. And it should be. I Mean, it could be bigger. You could, you could, you know, get great deals on cars, buying them at, you know, really low percentages and just, just move them out. And obviously that's a goal for everybody, but I think it's getting harder and harder to do. You know, if you listen to, to my guy Zip on Thursday night, it's easy. Yeah, everybody wants me to sell their car, sell me their, their, their, their cards cheap, but it doesn't happen to most. It. You got to put a lot of work into it, right. And, and a lot of relationship stuff too, which we talked about on the hobby shop Thursday night too. But for the most part, you're buying and selling it a show. It's, you know, as long as, as long as you're making a, you know, it's probably minimal risk, you know, minimal percentage profit, but banging that out, it's, it'll add up for sure. I've really, I've really taken, I really taken my argument to a lot of people who have, who have disagreed with me about sitting on inventory for so long, and I always, I've always done well with it. It's always worked out for me. We're gonna change that up just a little moving forward, hoping after the national I can be a little bit more balanced and especially. And now that the grading train has slowed to a stop. Right. We don't have to worry about that was a whole other piece of that too, where buying the car, it's sending them out to grading, waiting for them to come back. You know, it used to be, you know, 30 to 45 days and then 60 days and 90 days and 100 and something days. Now not at all unless you want to pay $80. But it's interesting, you see, getting ready for the national, you've got PSA and BGS up, same day service, end of show service. We've got it all. We're good. We're doing it all for you. Just don't send them to us. Come hand them to us at a show. And, and the purchasing end of it too, you know, being set up as a dealer, it's, it's much better. Better buying opportunities to buy cards versus walking a show as an attendee. I saw some cars today in, in cases price 30 to 40% over comps. I'm not even sure how to make an offer on those cards. I mean, I, I could certainly tell them, look, you're way overpriced on this card. But I tried the old. Do you have room on these cards? And not much. I'M a little bit. Feel free to make me an offer. Okay. All right. You know, I feel as a dealer, when somebody comes to sell, this comes up to the table to sell you their cards. I'm making realistic offers on what the market value is in the card. And sometimes they'll be like, wait, well, I thought one just sold for whatever. And I'll be like, no, I mean, this is what I got. And I, I, I don't mind showing them my phone and exactly what I'm looking at and, you know, tell them what I'm paying and I'm honest with them, too. Look, I mean, this is what I could pay you because I could put it in my case and this is what I feel I could make on it. I mean, I'm not, I'm not, I'm not here, you know, ripping you off, but just trying to make a little bit of profit trying to keep it going here. I hate no pickups. No pickups from today's show. Going to another show tomorrow, like I said earlier, so another chance. Still another day to make it happen. Next week is a holiday weekend. Independence Day on Saturday. So be safe out there. Enjoy your holiday. I will be back. I'll be back Sunday with an episode. Thursday night, I'll be back with zip on the hobby chop and new episode there for you. For you guys, solo episode next week. That's all I have. So until next time, take care of yourselves and everyone around you.