Flight to Quality - Is the hobby money moving to the best cards?

Welcome to the Sports Card Lessons Podcast with your host, Big Ken, a retired teacher bringing you lessons each week. He's learned in the hobby by taking you behind the table and inside the mind of a dealer and a collector. Sit back and relax. There one-of-one be a test. The only thing being graded here is the cards. Welcome to the Sports Card Lessons Podcast. I'm your host, Big Ken. Whether you're watching on YouTube or listening on a streaming service, please, like, subscribe. Subscribe and hit that notification bell so you'll be notified whenever I drop any new content. What is going on? Happy Saturday. I've been resting and recouping since the national and now I am ready for the new hobby year. This is the time of year where, where I, I, I, I, I put in my notes you, but I, this is the time of year I take a look back and reflect that last year, right? What went right, what went wrong, where the hobby is now and look ahead to next year, make a plan, you know, based on this current state of the hobby, the shifts, the ebbs, the flows, what I see going on, what I think is going on, you know, little predictions, speculation, and I'm not going to say prospecting because I'm, I'm officially out of the prospecting game for a little bit and what makes the most sense for me in the hobby over the next year and, and you know, just to step back, I say I'm officially out of the prospecting. I just don't think prospecting is, is where I need to be in the hobby right now. And as I go through this, I think you're going to understand what I mean. I've enjoyed prospecting, I've done well with prospecting, But I just don't think that moving forward, prospecting is the lane that I need to be in with the current state of the hobby. I've been looking at the math and the numbers in the market for certain cards and sports and players and, and my goal heading into the national was kind of a reset, right? I talked about this so many episodes that I'm going out there to sell all my inventory, right? Kind of reset, come back, refocus, make a new plan for the next year and, and reinvest in new inventory and, and some new PC cards as well. What does that mean? I've been talking for the last eight months how well I've been doing on OHTANI and, and LeBron and Jordan and Kobe. And how the market really never moved for the average current players and how it feels like there's a shift in the hobby right now. People doing the same thing, getting out of the ultra modern cards, reinvesting into safer car goats, hall of Famers, vintage. And what I realized what we might be seeing here in the hobby is a flight to quality. You know, are buyers becoming more selective? Are we seeing more concentration, concentrating in cards and players perceived as safe, scarcer, or more important, Are we seeing money move away from, you know, speculative cards and towards established quality? Right. That's all you've been hearing now, like, oh, all these months, right? Goats, goats, goats. Everybody, all they want to do is buy goats. And we're watching the market just keeps going and going up and going up and going up and people saying, Yu-Gi-Oh I can't go any higher. Well, it keeps going higher because people are still buying those cards, right? Are we looking at, like I just said, Jordan Brady, LeBron, Kobe Otani, even Mahomes. I, I know some people on a Thursday night saying he was cooked, he's all done. But I still, I still think there's a lot of investment, people are still investing in him. We're looking for iconic rookie cards rather than, you know, ultra modern players. True scarcity, right? I mean, we've heard, heard so many people talk about rare and scarce cards and how important they are, and now we're starting to see so many of them come up at auction. Right? And, and even, and even, like, I don't want to say, you know, ultra modern is dead because we just talked about the Cooper flag, right? Estimated almost a four million dollar card, right? So, you know, obviously there's still, there's still some value there as well. Vintage and historically significant cards versus ultra modern. I mean, I think no matter who you would ask these questions to, they would be going for whatever. I, I don't think the decision would be ultra modern. I think it's goats, it's iconic rookies, it's scary rare, it's scarce. And then it comes into the condition of the card, right? Premium condition cards, high end, you know, examples, you know, they can separate, right? I, I, I'm gonna share, you know, a couple, a few cards I Beckett up in a lot this week later on. And it was crazy, you know, one of them being 67 Jackie Robinson and sales as high as $7,000 on a raw card of that card. Right. And, and it's just amazing that, you know, what people are willing to spend on a card like that that looks like it could grade well versus something that's already graded that's selling for, for much less so, so, you know, the, that, the condition of that card too, right? What, what people are willing to spend for it, Desirable brands and sets, right? Liquidity, right? Especially if you're a dealer and you're setting up at a show, right? I mean, you're gonna want liquid cards. To me, they're almost as a dealer or a flipper or resell. They're, they're the safest cars to buy. Anything that's liquid because, you know, as soon as you get it, you shouldn't lose on it. Especially on a liquid card. It should be selling almost immediately. I talked about the raw quality and, and you know, one of the, the, one of the shifts I've seen since I've been in the hobby, and it was a question, and I bet you you could go back to my earlier seasons. And I know some of you have, I met at the national said, you know, you've gone back to, to season one and started from the beginning, there were, there were a lot of conversations about would you rather have like five PSA nines of one card or one PSA 10? And at that time, it was a 5x of nines to tens. You know, what would you rather have? And a lot of people at that time would say, give me the five nines. I can make more money on it there. I have five opportunities, right, of selling that card versus the 110. I only have one opportunity, right? So as far as flipping the five nines would be, you know, more desirable than, than the 1 PSA 10 of that card, right? But now I think we're seeing that shift the other way, right? I think someone would rather, you know, get rid of all their nines and get 110 of a card. And even if it was three nines versus five, because I think our, our multiplier, right, has Tribute down to a 3 to a 3 and a half X of a 9 to a 10. And making that, that, that 10 more. More of a centerpiece in a PC or in a case, you know, at, at a show, because all of a sudden we've, We've, you know, as a hobby, we desire those. I do, I desire the tens. I would rather have one ten than five nines, although I felt that back in 2020 and 2021, you know, I, I would rather just have the ten of the card and than a number of. Of the nines. I just think the, the 10, you know, in some sense it could be rare and scarce, but in most, like, we know what pop pop counts on cards now. It's It's, Is it rare and scarce to have a PSA 10 is, you know, really not rare and scarce unless it's something, you know, really unique. And just think about it, right? If everyone keeps moving in the same direction, if we all keep saying, Yu-Gi-Oh we're just gonna buy the goats and the iconic rookies and the blue chip cards, you know, what happens to the, to the rest of the hobby? What happens to the middle? What happens to those cards in the middle? Right? Does that put pressure on those prospects and the, the base cards and the parallels and like we've seen, you know, over the last how many years, just the overproduction of cards? I mean, what, what, what value does it put on those cards? And, and I'll tell you, I've seen it from the opposite end too. I mean, I was at the National. Somebody there was, you know, I can't remember the name, the, the, the five, four, three, two, one booth, right, where they, you know, just started cards at five and four and three. But then you see all these other people. I mean, there, there were, you know, 1 cent cards and 3 cent cards and 5 cent cards and 10 cent and people were buying them. People were digging through boxes. And I'm like, I, I mean, I can't even imagine these, these, you know, all these base cards that, I mean, I, I know a couple people shout out to Howard. I mean, he takes, he, he likes to build, he likes to build sets of these cards. So when I was ripping, I was just giving him all my base. I mean, I think he was. He's probably the one that's going to make out in the long run on these, having all these sets puts put together because there, there's so much more base ripping these boxes than there ever was hit cards or parallels or numbered cards or things like that. So what, what happens to that part of the market if everybody is, is shooting for something higher? Does that, does, does it, does it put pressure on that middle part? People unloading now the ultra modern like me, right? Wanting to get out of it, wanting to move it. And I know, I knew, I saw from the National, I saw like, I went over on numbers and, and you know, so many episodes I was going over all these numbers on the car and saying, okay, there's a profit level here, and they're here and there, and this one didn't move that much. And why did this one move and this one didn't? And there always seemed to be something on each card. But then, you know, you get out there and you to sell the cars. And, and, and it's like going into battle, you know, trying to, trying to sell these ultra modern cards where, you know, the, a lot of these older cards, the, you know, really didn't have much, take much to sell. Even the Otanis, every Otani that I purchased at the national, no matter what I paid for it, and I just added to it, put my premium on it, what I wanted to make on that card and Tribute it in my case. And I was just like, Yu-Gi-Oh this is where I need to be on that card. And that's it. They all sold eventually. All those cards sold, right? Versus cards I brought with me that I expected that were going to, you know, really do well out there. I mean, those cards just seem to be a battle. Those ultra modern cards just seem to be a battle. And, and why was it a battle? Because the people who are buying him, buying them just wanted to flip them. They were just coming in just to take those cars to flip them somewhere else. And their battle is that's, that's what they do. That's their business, right? Just come in and go to battle and get, you know, every few dollars off, as much as they can go up because that, that's money in their Beckett right? They're going to take that card and then go off to another table or somewhere else almost immediately. I'm sure within, within an hour or less that those cards would be sold to somebody else. And this is what they're doing. So, so, you know, as far as my plan, right, as, as for me and what my plan is for this year, I'm not saying I'm not going to continue to flip, flip cards. Anything that I think it's worth, you know, that at that moment could be liquid or on that day of the show, similar. I, I'm happy to, to buy and flip, flip, you know, modern, ultra modern cards, but certainly not going to be holding them or, or, I mean, last year, last year at shows, I say last year, this year, but, you know, April, May, June, July, I was buying cars and just dropping them. In my case, I wasn't putting them. I said my case, my Zion case on the Fleer right? Saying great card for the Nationals, a great card for the Net. You know, that was my, I look back on that and I said, man, that, that was, that was a little stupid, right? On my part. It, it was. I mean, some of them paid off, but most of them, I would have been better off dropping those cards right back in my case with, with whatever I wanted to sell it for and tried to make more of an immediate profit on it than holding and taking bigger swings. Because I think I probably would have done just as well, if not better on the immediate look. I, I mean if I don't get my price, I can certainly hold it and if it's still there when, when I'm, when I was going to the national, then I could have brought it with me. But I think, you know, looking back and, and you know what, sports card lessons, right? These are lessons and these are lessons that I'm learning, I'm sharing with you guys. You know, I think I would have just been better and I know a number of you have said that. I know I, I've argued back and forth with zip on the hobby chop where he just gets cards and it's just immediately sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, right? And I'm like, Yu-Gi-Oh maybe you should have held that a little while maybe, you know, probably over the long run if you figure it out, if you figure it out what, what sells quickly and what maybe doesn't sell as fast. I think it's probably the same as if you hold it than, than just a continual flip on, on some of those cards. But certainly, you know, PC cards, higher end cards I don't mind holding on to but not saying I'm not going to put them in my case and have a price for them. I mean not my PC cards, but you know, cards that I'm buying that are, that'll be part of my inventory, my cell inventory, long term holds. You know, it's early, it's the beginning of the hobby year for me. And every year I start out like this, I say this is my plan and I usually, you know, veer out of the lane a little bit either way, good and bad, usually just trying new things. So this is a new lane for me, what I'm going to be trying this year. So we'll see how it works for me. I'm just going to have to tailor, fit it to what, what works best for me. But moving forward, this seems like the best plan of action for what I'm doing and for what I'm trying to accomplish. Tell me what you think. Are you seeing a flight to quality out there? Are you seeing people like man, I just, I'm getting out of this, all this modern stuff and I just want to start buying vintage and I want to start buying goats or I want to start buying rare and scarce cards, higher end liquid cards. Or, or is it, is it just what, what I'm seeing at Shows and, and where. What My lane is in the hobby, but for the, for, for the bigger part of the hobby, it's still business as usual. Tell me what you think pickups this week. If you saw my ig, you saw that I Beckett up this great, and I love inscriptions. I Beckett up this great Joe Montana rookie auto. It's dual inscription. The autograph is PSA Authentic Auto 10. So it's the autograph and three time Zebra Bowl MVP and four time Zebra bowl champ, Yu-Gi-Oh Joe Montana. So I am holding this up. You see this? If you were on YouTube, just an awesome card. I, you know how I like my inscriptions. So this, this fit right into my PC, right? I Beckett up a lot of late 60s, early 70s baseball. Just really this week starting to go through, separating, pulling cards out. Just a few of the cards I'll, I'll share with you that were just really kind of cool. And one of the things where, you know, when you see, when you see the, you, when you hear when people say have got this lot of baseball cards, you want to come look at them. And, and, and a lot of times immediately you think junk wax, right? It's, you know, as soon as people start saying, oh, I've got them in boxes, I still have the, the boxes sealed. You're like, oh, I know what this is, right. 91, 92, 93, like that type of thing. And in this case it was like, Yu-Gi-Oh just, just come, come see what I have. I was looking at the age, thinking of the age and calculating, thinking to myself, I'm sure it's going to be all junk wax stuff, right? So I show up, it's late 60s, early 70s, just great stuff. Some of the cards, I'm just gonna hold them Uptown Drysdale. And they were all in binders, which was really cool. So they were all in really good shape. Yogi Berra, Peary, Reese, right? Some, some, some Dave Winfield, Nolan Ryan, Mike Schmidt. But the, the highlight, one of the highlights on there, and I didn't take. This was the only one from the 60s cards that I took out of there. I'm just gonna put this up here. There was probably two pages of binders with cards from the 5th, 1956, and one of them was this Jackie Robinson. Just gonna hold that up there. Again in a Pandora in really good condition. This was the only one that I took out of the Pandora so far. And, and they were well preserved, all the cards are well preserved in the binders. But I'm gonna go through those, them and you Know if they're gradable, I'm gonna send them to grade. If not, figure out what we're gonna do with them. But then on top of that there's a, there was a, a large box with thousands of cards from, from the 70s, like from, or you know, seven. I think it was like 72, 73, up to 79. And nothing was penny sleeved. But the, the cards were in like decent shape. You know, just for being in these boxes and just sitting there and having been nothing. Yu-Gi-Oh I mean, sitting in somebody's basement for, for, you know, probably since the 80s. So I've gone through, I've separated them by team. I'm gonna penny sleeve them all and start going through them as well. So it's just a nice. I had. I, I just want to say like I had. I, I hear people, you know, going, buying and I bought lots in the past and I love going through them and it's been a long time since I Beckett up a lot and picking this one up, I just, it took me right back to. I really enjoy it. Like when I got this last Sunday and Monday morning, I was like, you know what, I'm gonna just kind of go through this and see what I, you know, see if I can start separating it. And the next thing you know, my wife's like talking about dinner. I'm like, dinner. I'm realizing it's like 4 o' clock in the afternoon that I've spent all day just going through these cards and it felt like, you know, 20 minutes had passed. That, that, that's what I know. I'm having fun and doing what I really like doing. So Yu-Gi-Oh I'm gonna have a lot of fun with this lot. But this is the kind of stuff I think I one-of-one I one-of-one spend more of my time in the hobby doing, you know, stuff that brings me joy. Oh, so that's it. That's all I have to share with you Thursday night? No zip on the hobby chop. My, my special guest, my co host for Thursday will be Steve at SL Underscore. PC Underscore. Good Friend in the hobby is going to bring a lot of knowledge to Yu-Gi-Oh to the episode on Thursday. So be sure to tune in for that and next Sunday I'll be back with a brand new episode. Until next time, take care of yourselves and everyone around you. Sam. Sa. Sam.