Are Repackers Good Or Bad For The Hobby?; Monster Sports Card Auctions Ending This Week On Fanatics Collect; Playing Over/Under With Cards Selling Around $10,000

You're listening to Cards to the Moon, a podcast about trading cards from both a collector and investor perspective. We hope you'll stick around for the ride as we take a deep dive into the state of the hobby, share some hot takes, hopefully some useful advice and fun stories along the way. Hey guys, welcome back to Cards to the Moon. This is episode 277. My name is Clark from 5cardguys.com and 5cardguys on Instagram and on YouTube. Co-hosting with me as usual is Hyung of Integrity Sports Cards. John's away this week but he should be back with us soon. Okay, off the top, there are some monster auctions live right now on Fanatics Collect and by the time this episode airs, there will be two days left before the auction closes. So I want to bring up three of these cards and what they're actually going for right now as of Thursday, March 13th when we're recording this episode. And Hyung, you tell me, which of these cards would you personally want for your PC and which of these cards do you think will have the best ROI in say 10 years, alright, based on current auction prices. So the three cards that I think everyone should check out. First, the Paul Skeens, of course, MLB debut patch 1 of 1, probably got the most press. I believe it's currently going for $550,000 and that's before the buyer's premium so that takes it over $600k. The second card, which I think is really overshadowed, but because of the Paul Skeens MLB debut patch card, is the Jackson Holiday MLB debut patch 1 of 1 card and that's raw and currently the bids are at $50,000. And the Paul Skeens we already know that's graded PSA 1010. And the third one is the Juan Soto, his first Bowman Chrome autograph red refractor card and I believe it's a true red and it's currently at $75,000 on bids. So which of these three would you personally want to have in your collection and which do you think will deliver the best ROI in 10 years? Oh man, this is a tough one. I think because the debut patches have so much legs, you don't know what it's going to do. But then the Bowman Chrome has such a rich history and that was Juan Soto's card. Out of all cards, I think the red refractor is the card to get and I doubt you'll see one surface in the next few years even. So I think everybody who has one, they're holding regardless. I think one person obviously wanted to cash out during this time and I think the best bargain depending on where the Soto ends, based on the pricing right now, that's something to definitely keep an eye out. In terms of sealing, I still think that could be a seven-figure card. I would say Juan Soto for sure. The Paul Skeens is obviously massively, massively hyped and that goes with all the marketing and the hype that's been done around it, not only from a fanatic standpoint. Fanatics marketed well with the whole debut patches in Topps Chrome update. The hype was last year where they started so they did a good job to kind of market the product and then on top of that you had Paul Skeens who was involved in the marketing. Whether it was a collab with Fanatics, his involvement and his obviously physical talent and ability plays a massive, massive role. And the way MLB is positioning Paul Skeens to be kind of like that future pitcher, like the best pitcher in Major League Baseball, right? That's the way they're painting it always. So there's a massive, massive premium for HEP550. I told everybody it's going to be a million-dollar card and I don't know, I think it's going to get there based on the trajectory right now. And you're right, Jackson Halday, I think he's kind of being undershadowed. Or you could put it this way, is everything else so much more overrated? And Jackson Halday is kind of like, okay, that's a $50,000 to $100,000 card, you know, in its market. It's a fair evaluation. Right. Whereas I even think that Jackson Halday is going to sell for six figures plus. So at the end of it, I think these cards are superly overvalued but it's in a position because they're one-on-ones where we could say currently it's undervalued or overvalued but you know, next year, two years or five years from now, it was super undervalued. Just like when somebody paid $3,500 for, you know, an orange Juan Soto, right, auto. And you could say that you're overpaying right now, this guy hasn't done anything. But then the next time the card surfaces because they're so rare, you know, it could be undervalued. It's one of those things where you're going to have to overpay for these type of cards in the current market. But at the end of the day, if you're looking at it from a long-term lens, you might be underpaying in the long run. Yeah. That's a good point there. I agree with you when you say, you know, like for all three of these cards, you're definitely overpaying, right? Because of, you know, they're for the most part, Juan Soto, very established and in terms of, you know, like knowing their talent, right? And Jackson Holliday still has the buzz, still has the potential. And Polsky's is kind of in that boat too, right? Like he's established himself as potentially this generational pitcher, but he's still in his second year. You know what I mean? He's still young. He's still young and he has a lot of people are expecting a lot from him still, you know, So, and you know, we could, it's another episode altogether about what we think of pitchers. But I agree with you when you say that, I think Juan Soto for me is the card that has the potential best ROI just because of the card itself too. And you know, Juan Soto, the player, we've established how great he is and he's been in the news with his 700 plus, million plus contract. But we're talking off air that his first moment, superfracture auto seems to be out of circulation. And I was just kind of doing quick research and on blowout forums in 2023, someone was asking about what happened to that superfracture and I'll just read a bit of it. The card, this, whoever wrote this post, the card was a BGS nine with a nine auto. Okay. It got cracked out. The auto was partially wiped and possibly altered or trimmed. Then it got into a PSA 10 holder and then they provide a cert number and then references in this thread site. It was decertified, pulled from circulation, bought by PSA, and then they have no idea what happened to the card. So PSA ended up purchasing it? According to this post. Or acquiring it? Right. And to just, to take it out of circulation, you know, I'm not. What is it? Michael Rubin's? Or is it? Whose pocket is it in? It's a long-term play from back two, three years ago. What a monster card. But then if that's true, if it's out of circulation, right? Like if no one knows where it is and what happened to it, the red refractor essentially becomes the best one soto card. Absolutely. And to go back to it. Yeah. That sucks that, you know, if it was trimmed or altered and then graded by PSA as a 10, like that's, it's unfortunate that that's the backstory of it, but I don't care if that card's trimmed. I'm keeping that card. Like, I mean, you know what I mean? I don't care if it's in the authentic altered slab. I don't care if it's the PSA 2. Like that card is massive. And I don't know if you've seen, this is kind of off topic, but Otani's, you know, first Bowman chrome auto, do you know the variation that surfaced the variation autos where he's carrying the bag. So I believe the regular autos of that is at a 25 and that's the super fractor. So seeing that card, seeing these cards that are, and to me that's a seven figure card, right? So, and you're, you're looking at Juan Soto Bowman first auto super fractor is, is definitely up there now in terms of someone, what someone's willing to pay. Right. And I think this red sale will prove that kind of statement because I don't know how much the red is going to sell for, but I would imagine it had, it would have to fall between like 200 and 500 K as crazy as that sounds because it's crazy. Cause the trout, the trout red, I think sold for like three 50 or something like that. And that was Vegas Dave's sale or something like that. So I would, I would say it would fall up, fall in that kind of category, especially with Juan Soto's massive contract and his trajectory as a player. But yeah, insane, but a cool, cool story and shout out to blow out. That's why I love blow out forms when, when I originally started getting back into card collecting, that's the first place that I would call home. Like I would be on that forum 24 seven messaging other users, you know, I would even go as far as some of my best purchases have come from the marketplace in blow out forms because a lot of these guys, these guys are lifers on blow out. So they don't, they still to this day probably don't even like understand the card market outside of blow out, but they're just regular collectors. And like I told you last year, I think a couple of years ago, I told you about that Manny Machado lot that I got like X factor rods that, you know, weren't graded. And I got a super, super good deal on this raw lot and 80 or 90% of them PSA 10. So for me, it's like, there's a lot of guys that don't believe in PSA grading or grading in general. So it's like the old school, old school forum that they have the backstory to everything. I'm telling you every single trim card is, is, is marked. So go check out blow out forums. They have an awesome, like a community there and a great marketplace as well. Great resource. Definitely. And yeah. A wealth of information. That's for sure. One note, the one Soto, the first Bowman red that's on auction is a graded PSA nine auto 10. I don't think it really matters when it's a red refractor number to five, but just to kind of complete those notes and yeah, you know, with, with Paul skeins, I, I, I'm with you too. I think it's going to be a million dollar card and I think whoever wins it, it's going to keep it. I don't think it's going to, I don't think you're going to see up for sale anytime soon once that sales completed. So that's my thought. So we'll see if you want to keep track of any of these cards, what they're going for or any other high end auctions, a shameless plug for my page at five card guys.com slash daily auctions. I have all the links for you there to the auctions directly on eBay and on fanatics collect and you could also check the show notes below. We'll provide the links for you there. All right, let's move on to hobby headlines. All right. This news dropped this past week and it's made some waves because the issue of repackers in the hobby is a little contentious to some in the hobby. But the news is that fanatics, they're getting into the repack market with the launch of its new instant rips. It's not what that's what they're calling it. Instant rips product this week. Now before we go deeper into this, for those who aren't familiar with what repacks are, it's essentially custom made packs that contain cards that have already been ripped from factory sealed packs and sets. So instead of a fresh pack from tops that you can rip, for example, a repack is a pack that's curated by usually like a hobby shop or a breaker, or even individual sellers and they could curate it in a way that maybe just is just by sport. They can make a basketball repack, a baseball repack. Other times they can include a wider mix from different sets, even different years, and it could even be multi-sport. So there's a variety of repacks. They would also put in some hits that you can get from these repacks, just like a factory sealed pack. And depending on the hits available, the packs could cost anywhere from a few bucks. It could be like a cheap repack to like hundreds of bucks, depending on the hit, obviously. If there's Otani Auto that they're advertising that's in one of these repacks, obviously they could sell it for hundreds of dollars. Anyway, before we get into what Fanatics is offering specifically, Hyung, I want to get your thoughts on repackers in the hobby. Are they good for the hobby? Are they bad for the hobby? Or somewhere in between? What do you think? I'm going to shoot myself in the foot here, but I think, one, I don't think it's bad for the hobby because repacks existed before the whole hype. And some of the most entertaining, from an entertainment standpoint, because I didn't really participate, because there's some guys in Facebook forums that are super, super high end. So there's guys that would make $1,000 repacks with $10,000 chases. So at the end of the day, they're still providing a service, as long as it makes sense. Obviously, if you're going to make the argument that, oh, people could cheat you out of, yes, for sure. If on the negative side of things, unregulated repack could, you might get ripped off. So let's take out all that and just kind of look at it from a conceptual standpoint. So from that standpoint. It's always existed. It's part of the hobby. So I think from that standpoint, it's it's okay. There's, there's nothing really wrong with it, because it makes sense. Because if you're, then you have to justify, well, is card ripping good for the hobby, because the odds are way worse in terms of ROI. So it's another form. And if you kind of unpack this, I think there's a lot to do with this, because let's take it from a context of what do you what are people doing with their slabs? They're kind of like worthless, but or they don't want to sell maybe a $50 slab, it might not be worth it. Whereas somebody might see it as treasure and kit could get it at a 25% discount. And he ends up putting them in a repack, where, you know, as a from a business standpoint, you could still make your margins. And that's why I always say it's not the selling price that, you know, is a good buy, it's always the buying price. So these repackers are obviously buying in bulk, at a really good deal, at least the face value is there. And as long as and we talked about arena club when they released the repacks. And I thought they did a really good job, because there's a lot of transparency, right? So you know, exactly what cards are in the repack. So if there's 1000 cards in a repack, all 1000 cards are listed. And as one gets kind of pulled, or whatever it could, or at least you could see what what was kind of in in the repack and what you're chasing. I think transparency is very, very important when it comes to repacks. And it goes back to why would someone drop $1,000 on a repack in a private breakers, like an on Facebook group, it would be because they trust that breaker, they have a credibility, the history and who's to say that that breaker is bad for doing this. Right? So there's that overall, I think it's great. I don't personally participate in repacks. But I have, I have multiple times, and I've done well, for the most part, or at least got my money back in some sort, right? So I don't think necessarily it's as high as a gamble as kind of ripping. Right? Yeah. So let's take it a step further, though. Now with fanatics. So they obviously have a way of bringing in the supply. So if you think of everything they've created, so let's just say even a PSA vault, right? So now they have a way to liquidate cards even faster, where it's not necessarily like fanatics connect collect, for instance, it's like a marketplace where you have to have a buyer and a seller. But if cards aren't selling, and you have millions and millions and millions of cards at like a vault or storage, yeah, this is where I feel like fanatics already has the supply, or at least a wholesale supply, where they could cash people out of their slabs. Right? And then now create a repack, where they're not out there necessarily chasing these slabs and trying to, you know, negotiate deal. Maybe they are maybe they put, hey, buying all all types of slabs, you know, and then they offer whatever 25%, or 20%, or 30% from comps, and they're able to kind of keep that supply going. But I think what they've built overall, in terms of the infrastructure, they could now access whatever infrastructure they've already built, and now potentially access those cards, where they could now liquidate the market. And I'll end it off with this. So this is interesting, totally off, off industries. But I was scrolling through Instagram, and there was a reel that basically explained how milk and cheese, like, would would be kind of like pressed down. And then the byproduct, the waste, they had so much waste of that byproduct, after they condensed it, that they didn't know what to do with it, because it was garbage. So what they did was that ended up becoming whey protein. Right. And now it's a whole industry of basically a byproduct waste of a totally different industry. So I see repacks almost the same way. Whereas like, where are all these millions and millions of cards that we're grading? Yeah. Every month? Where are they going? Trash. Right. Or it's sitting in somebody's shelf. Yeah. So it's almost like a byproduct of that, where it's kind of like worthless, or maybe it's a hold. Some people hold it. But there's a lot of slabs, is my point. A lot of byproduct, a wasteful byproduct of grading that necessarily doesn't hit the marketplace. So how can those cards hit the marketplace without someone actually buying it? Repacks would be that kind of answer. You know, to your point, some of the pros of repackers in general, right, and this is what fanatics will often promote as well, obviously, for their own gain. But I think there's some legitimacy to their reasoning. You get more chances of big hits. You mentioned this already, especially compared to ripping. And I'm laughing because like, we said we had a rip session with the boys last week, and that was a dreadful case, right, of top series one. It was the combined ROI from our case was like, super low, you know, and yeah, so it wasn't great. But you know, we did it for entertainment purposes. And to your second point, and I was going to mention this as well, that it's really trusting the breakers or trusting who you are, who you're buying the repacks from, right. And, and if you could trust them, and there's transparency involved, then I think it could be another form of entertainment. Like it is gambling at the end of the day, right? But at least you know, what you should know what the odds are, right with the checklist. And, you know, the, you know, you hope that the checklist gets updated. And there's always, you know, a few bad apples in any industry in anything that we talk about, right, especially within the hobby, that kind of, you know, taints the picture of what repacks can be. But, you know, other than that, like, you got to kind of do your own research and make sure you're buying into legitimate, you know, break or, or repack. Right. So I think the other thing is, and I kind of wanted to ask you about as young as one of the main complaints, though, about repackers is that they go to shows, and they really just buy a lot of inventory for their repacks. And they'll pay usually a little more than what an individual collector or buyer might want to pay for it, right? Because they, they could buy in bulk. And, and so the, the consequence or repercussion of that is, as shows a lot of these sellers, a lot of these booths are just looking for repackers to offload their inventory, because they think they can get the best deal. But who is left out in the cold in that sense, it's the individual collector, I guess, or buyer that can't, you know, buy their own cards at reasonable prices. So do you think that's a legitimate concern? Or do you think that's a small part of the whole thing? I think it's a small part, because at the end of the day, I don't think these resellers or, you know, people setting up at shows are looking to necessarily offload kind of like cards that are chases that people want. They're looking to offload and maximize the value on slabs that they have zero attachment to, and that they just want to, you know, get their grading feedback plus a little bit. So I don't, I don't mind it. Because let me ask you a question. If you had 100 slabs, and somebody came to you and offered comp, plus 5%, right, or whatever it is, even comp, yes, I would hit you if you didn't, if you didn't unload that, I'd be like, what's wrong with you, Clark, like, you gotta, right, right, you just take it, take it. So from that standpoint, I think I would do it. So I can't be hypocritical saying that it's, it's necessarily bad, because it's like, again, it's providing a service and making my job easier than there's always a demand for it. Because if I had a problem of unloading slabs, this would be a great solution for me. So I don't think necessarily it's bad. And I don't think there's enough of that. Like I said, I haven't been too many shows in the past year or so. So it might be different. Maybe it's, it's an issue where everyone's looking for a repack, deal or whatever it is. But based on my experience, I really haven't, you know, it hasn't really come into play for me. Yeah, no, I agree with you, too. I kind of wanted to bring this up, because I know that's a concern for some people, right. But I think the hobby is big enough to sustain just different, you know, people collecting the way they want to collect. Yeah, there's a space for repackers, there's a space for you know, I mean, yeah, for people looking for their PC collection. Yeah. And here's the thing, there, there will always be an issue to the individuals that are affected. So that's why it's like, if we're, if we're always looking at it from a subjective lens, because I'm not benefiting from it, it's bad. I think that's part of the issue with our hobby that we have all these arguments, oh, the hobby sucks. Oh, the hobby is not like it used to be. Oh, it's only because you've experienced something that probably it didn't benefit you. Right. But the moment it benefits you, it's the best hobby in existence. Right. And that's the thing. It's if we're always looking at it as a subjective lens, then we're always going to be arguing what's right and what's wrong, instead of looking at it objectively, kind of from kind of like 1000 feet zoomed out and say, Okay, is this good? Or is this bad? What are the threats? What are the opportunities like all those things that come into play? And I think that's what like, at least from my standpoint, when every time I speak, I'm always speaking at a neutral standpoint, of course, I'm going to have a bias towards things if, let's just say I hit something big on a repack, you know, I'm going to be all for repacks, right? If I hit something big in a RAS, am I going to talk bad about a RAS? Probably not. Right. So I think it's, that's the that's the problem with the hobby is that it's so subjective. But if you look at it as a whole, it's great. Because it's providing a service, like, like I said, I'm not big on repacks. But that that doesn't like I don't participate. I haven't participated in a repack since I think when Chris Costas, when he was doing repacks before card vault, that was and I hit a Jason Tatum prism base. At the time, it was like 250 bucks, and I paid 200 bucks for the repack. And I sold it for like 250 bucks or whatever. But that's my whole point. It's like, it was fun. You know, it was an experience. But I don't do it necessarily every week. So yeah, no, I get your point totally. And you know what, like, for me, the bigger picture and the bigger perspective is that the hobbies evolving, like as it's growing, it's evolving, there's different ways to enjoy the hobby. And I think, you know, one of the things we will do, especially on this podcast is like, you kind of see where the the hobby trends are. So, you know, there might be a point in the future that if repacks is are the only way to get good hits, you know, if like every booth and every seller say, Hey, you know what I want on this repack game, and there's just like, everyone starts going in that direction. That might be an issue, because now everything's kind of like off balanced. I mean, you're like, Oh, I can't even get any product that's not out of a repack. But right now, I feel like it's just a new part of the hobby that's growing, right, you know, and and now we're just reacting to, to and like, you're saying there are some people that just don't like it, because it's new. And there's this automatic reflex, right, of not liking it. And for sure, and wait until raz has come up, wait until fanatics gets into a raz, because it's going to be a full blown, like, alternative casino. And that you mentioned it before, it's like, card ripping is probably the biggest gamble in our hobby. Yeah, right. So it's like, if you think about it, if anything, it's it's a lot safer than card ripping. But that's, you're not going to eliminate card ripping. That's the whole point of our hobby. That was the reason why we love ripping, right. So and then it goes back into, Oh, are we sending a wrong message to kind of like the next generation, but it's part of the hobby. So it's like, how do you, I guess, normalize it in a way where, you know, it's especially from a fanatic standpoint. And that's why I think it's so important that someone like fanatics understands kind of like both consequences and benefits to it, the longevity of and sustainability of our hobby, and which they have been doing a great job in general. But again, from a business standpoint, this is another revenue stream. And this is probably Yeah. Also, if you look at, okay, how do we cut down storage fees, let's just say, in the PSA vault, I don't know how many cards they could fit, or maybe it doesn't even cost them that much, or how many cards they store. But this is an alternative to keep inventory low. Because if they're, let's just say their card vault services growing at 5%, 10%, how, what do they project their inventory to be? And we're housing all that inventory with security. So it's like, how do we offset that number in the future? So stuff like that, where it makes sense from a logistical standpoint, like if I was running a company like that, those are the concerns that as a someone running a company, you're going to have to really kind of scratch your head and say, How do I solve these issues without necessarily raising any huge, huge flags, where people are just bashing the fanatics brand, right? So and then going back, it's like, where's that line? Like where? We never know where that line is. So it's like, we could say card ripping is gambling, but then repack is gambling. But how about razzes razzes goes on every single day. And guess what, I remember I hit a $99 mini on a mini. So that's not even the main, the mini is gambling to get into the main. And then now you have a 10% percent chance in the main to get that card. So that's the stupidest gamble. But then I remember a $99 mini, you know, you finish top four or top three, you get a spot in the main or whatever it was. And I got a spot in the main and sure enough, I won the main and it was $3,000 at the time. You can laugh at it. It was a BGS 9.5 Zion Silver Prism, you know what I mean? So it's like I had a blast during that time, you know. Now is the odds great? Probably not. But that's our hobby. It's always been like that. Razzes always happen. Breaks always happen, you know. Repacks always happen. Card ripping always happen. So now that it's in the spotlight through a big corporate entity, I think a lot of people are like, what is this? This is insane, but it really isn't. Yeah. I mean, you can argue that now that Fanatics is involved, it might be better for the future of repacks, breaking, anything that involves this kind of gambling aspect of the hobby. Because I do think that there probably at some point needs to be some stronger regulation on it. For sure. I mean, when you have bigger players, like corporations involved, that brings about regulation a lot quicker, obviously because they can invest more into it and scale it faster. And then it becomes less of a Wild Wild West thing, with individual Facebook groups doing their own thing. And you just don't know which rings are legit and which ones aren't, you know what I mean? So in a way that with Fanatics introducing instant rips, this might bring it closer to having some sort of regulation. Because gambling can be definitely a big problem for some people, right? And the bigger question of kids getting involved, I think that has to be counterbalanced with why people collect. Maybe right now what's in the spotlight is this whole thing about getting big monster hits. You know, we even off the top talked about the three big cards of Fanatics collect auctions, right? But at the same time, there's a part of the hobby where people just want to collect their favorite baseball player. And that's part of it too. And it's kind of goes hand in hand over time. There needs to be this balance. So that's what I'm kind of envisioning the hobby to be. But right now, you know, obviously the gambling aspect of the hobby is getting a lot of play. But I don't think it's sustainable long run if it's just that, you know, if you forget that these are actual baseball players that people root for, that people are fans of, then there's no nostalgia component. Like we love baseball cards, obviously, because of the flip sometimes and the investment. But we also love the players, we talk about Trout and what's he going to do this year, you know, and there needs to be both those elements to I believe, to sustain the hobby long term. And it's a slippery slope, because it's it's then you get into the argument of like, can we trust these larger corporations, right? Like if they're regulating and it's same thing with stocks, it's the same thing with crypto. Those are always the question, well, is the SEC someone you can trust in the first place, right? Are the inside players someone you could trust? And that's the dangers of why, like, even we seen it with with card porn and why I had such an issue with their stance in the hobby is because they're trying to regulate a certain type of behavior. But then do we trust the people that are the leaders of the hobby, right? And that's the slippery slope I could see from both sides. Like as a hobbyist, it's like, do I want regulation? Do I want these crooked people anyways, making the rules in the first place, and that I guarantee that's with a lot of people, right? Because for me, I'm, I'm more on that camp where I'm like, I don't know if I want regulation, because it's like, like, even stuff like, you know, how taxes are in the hobby, we never talk about that. It's like, those are conversations, I think that are slippery slopes, you know, that can go any way. But I think in the bigger picture in the longer run of the card hobby, I see it like almost like a stock market. So you have like the casino for just straight up gambling, then you have sports betting now, it's become so normalized, right, that even MLB is involved, which is crazy, because we're, we're, we're shunning people like Pete Rose from the Hall of Fame because of gambling, yet we're participating in the same thing that we're accusing people of. So it's like, those are the things that, to me, at least, it doesn't make sense in terms of what's right and wrong, because we can't be at the same time having a hypocritical stance on it, doing one thing, but preaching another, right? So I think that's the evolution of the hobby. There are obviously concerns with a lot of this. But at the same time, if we don't push forward, we don't even know the concerns or the concerns can't even surface. And as those concerns kind of float up, this is when I think the leaders of the industry, like fanatics, need to address in a transparent way where everybody kind of understands it. So like, do I know all the answers to how you're going to regulate this? No, but it is a slippery slope where it has to be done properly, where it, it requires the trust from the true hobbyist and the outside collector from the other side of things. Yeah, definitely. I can agree with that for sure. And you know, it's, like I mentioned, it's always evolving. So there's going to be ebbs and flows and how this plays out. But yeah, it's an interesting time in the hobby, that's for sure. Before closing off this segment, let's get into the fanatics Instant Rips specifically, because the details of it is that they're calling it the Odyssey series, and it contains 1000 baseball card repacks for $250 each, all right. So that's, that's a cool quarter million for fanatics right there, if you do the math. And each repack contains one graded card. Yeah. According to fanatics, the floor value of these cards is 90 bucks, right? And there's a ceiling of about 3800 very specific. So let's say 4000. And they also say they're going to release a checklist. So you know which cards to expect, right? Something like that. Does that entice you to go to fanatics if you're looking for repack? For sure. If I'm new to the hobby, and you know, this is a service fanatics is offering and there's transparency and I've already trusted fanatics. Now some people might not have trust in fanatics. That's the thing from the get go, which I get like, maybe you don't agree with the way they're doing it. That's fine. The way I see it is, as long as they're transparent, as long as they, you know, every single card on that checklist is out there. Right. So I think that's super important. And it to me, it's very logical business move. Like, like, like you said, they're very specific with what's in there, the price. So it's $1,000, you know, 1000 or 1000 cards, checklists, and then, you know, it's selling for 250. That's 250 grand in revenue, they're probably trying to scout 2030 points off that, you know, and they do multiples of it a year. And now they just created, you know, a cash flowing revenue stream of whatever that is. And you could do that with every sport WWE, because realities is like, there's so many slabs out there, what's happening with the byproduct, the waste, the whey protein, what's happening with the whey protein of sports cards? That's where we're at. Yeah, you know, the only tricky part is, and maybe we'll close off with this is, the inventory value changes all the time. That's the only issue, right? So they can evaluate it at, you know, this dollar amount at this point in time. But if you're still trying to sell those repacks a year down the road, yeah, and you got like Zylon silver prism. Yeah, Zylon prism, saying it's overvalued. Exactly, right? So, you know, when we talk about transparency, I hope there's going to be an evolution of that system in place where those prices also change. And then that dictates the price of the repack itself, right? Do you know what I mean? Yeah, I think I think to solve that, I think they would have to do it really quick. Real time. Yeah, real time. They can't be like, oh, we got this repack coming up. And then next year, they finally released the repack. And, you know, the checklist is kind of like, well, this guy's injured. This guy tore his ACL. So it's not a $90 card anymore. It's like 20 bucks, right? And that's the problem with repacks in general is like a lot of people claim that the value is there. But then when they rip, it was it was a Zion base that was 150 bucks like three years ago. And they're claiming that it's the same card, right? So yeah, maybe maybe the solution is like, especially with fanatics, and they could provide inventory at any point in time, because they got the supply. It's got to be like a limited release kind of thing. Yeah, like, you know, right now 100 packs, sweat, it costs, we evaluated it, and you know, like, it won't change within a week, you know, I mean, so I think I think somebody's going to get really creative with it. And now, so for instance, let's just say I created a repack. And I said, Clark, I have a repack and the chase is a nine five Jordan 86 flare. But this hundred card chase is all Jordans. So it's like, this is a Jordan, this is a Jordan repack. So if you're a Jordan collector, you buy two of those slabs hoping to hit the chase, but then you you have all Jordan cards. So you're like, you know what, I don't mind this because I'm a Jordan collector anyways, instead of it being generic sports or basketball, or I think there's a lot of creative ways you could kind of go with this where even even and this is because I'm just speaking on based off the private repackers, because I guarantee you, they're not going to be happy with fanatics is move, right. So this is where you have to be more creative to kind of say, okay, I could provide a better product or service than fanatics to be able to, you know, keep my business going, right. So and then that flip side as well, fanatics might be helping you to introduce more people buying repacks to the hobby. So it's it's free marketing for you at the end of the day, right? Yeah, no, I'm glad you brought that point up. I totally forgot about it. That's just, you know, what other repackers will think about this, because it's competition to them now. 100%. So fanatics has a leg up for sure, because of the supply issue, right? Yeah, you also reminded us with the BGS 9.5 Jordan example, there was a little bit of controversy, we won't get into it, but Arena Club, I don't know if you saw this, Jeff Wilson was on the Jim Rome show. And there he was, you know, promoting Arena Club repack slabs. And then Jim Rome happened to hit the Michael Jordan 1986 FLIR BGS 9.5 on air. And now people are speculating, like, what's rigged? Yeah, what's going on? That's the problem. And this is and we could keep on going with this, because this is where I see like, going back to NFTs. Right? You know what I mean? Like, like, there's some way that technology is going to come in play. We don't know when and that's the way I see it. I see it as going back to kind of like, you got your casinos, you got your all these things, but stock market, you're investing in businesses, gambling, sports gambling, you're gambling on the team, sports cards, it's player based. So it's, it's, it's a marketplace that you're, you could call it investing or gambling, whatever you want to call it, right? You're investing in the individual player. So it's just an evolution of a marketplace, in my opinion. So it's like, eventually, it's like, how do we make it to a point where, you know, it's a lot more transparent and tracked where, you know, and I some sort of technology has to come into play eventually. And this is why else this is also why I say I'm bullish on the hobby, those rare, rare cards, I think, long term, that's where it's at, like the value of this hobby is the super rare cards that are good, long term pieces, and you have 50, 60, 70 years, 100 years of cards that are proof. It follows the same trend. So extrapolate the data that you have, and make smart investments. And I think in the long run, that's why I'm bullish on just collecting in general. Great. Yeah, well said. All right, I knew this would be a lively discussion, I'm sure. Got me going this morning, Clark. We're all awake now. But yeah, people listening to this podcast, I'm sure we'll have a lot to say as well. So we don't mind hearing from you. Of course, you could DM us at cards to the moon or at five card guys on Instagram. Okay, let's move on to over under. All right, this is a segment where I give you a dollar amount, and you guess if the last sold price of the card that I give you is over and under that amount. And that amount for this segment is $10,000. All right, $10,000 round. So four cards. First one, the 2009, and these all sold recently within a month or so, 2009 Bowman Chrome X Fractor of Mike Trout's rookie card. I got the refractor number to 500, the X Fractor is numbered to 225, the BGS 9.5 auto 10, over under 10,000. 10,000. Sold yesterday. Man. 10,000. It's BGS 9.5? Yep. Auto 10. It's first Bowman, right? So I already hear true collectors being like, it's not his rookie card. First Bowman auto, X Fractor, number 225? Is it 225? That's correct. BGS 9.5. True gem or true gem plus? I just think it might even be a min gem. I will double check with you right now. I have an idea, but I think this would be the kicker for me. If it's a min gem, I'm going to say under. It's a min gem, but the centering is a nine, edges are 10, corners and surface 9.5. Ooh, it could be a premium. because somebody's thinking PSA, somebody's thinking I'm gonna crack this, it might be DC. I'm gonna say, man, I feel like Mike Trout's market is going up. So I want to say over. But I also feel like a min gem would be like, it'd be higher by so I'm gonna say it's under. Under 10k, yes. You're correct. 8,900. Yeah. And you're right, because we talked about this in our chat group, the Mike Trout refractor number to 500 was a true gem plus. That's sold for almost 8k. Wow, that's crazy. That's a nice. Yeah. And this is what I always remember, especially about those cards and the people and the people in the market, and versus people are that are newer into the hobby BGS was the grading company during that time. So every single sub grade mattered. You look at any Jeter, any Jordan, you know that Jeter SP like 90 90. Was it 93? Three? Yeah. So those, those sub grades matter so much. So people value those sub grade, whereas modern cards were like, who cares this crack and submit it like, there's a lot of value in those sub grades. And like you said, it's like those that point five does matter if that was a true gem plus, I guarantee you that or even true gem that card is probably 10 grand. If it's true gem plus that card is probably 12 grand. If it's a PSA 10 is probably 15. Right? So yeah, it's crazy. The premiums Yeah, for sure. All right, next card. This is raw. But the player is Shea Gilgis Alexander. You know, there's a debate right now between SGA and Nikola Jokic who's going to win the NBA MVP this year, but it's 2018 National Treasures. Rookie patch auto number to 49 raw of SGA over under 10,000 over I'm gonna say over right away because I feel like SGA and this is thing we we watch his market. It's kind of like that Otani boom. It's like we could have bought SGA for floor floor floor floor price. But I still feel like some of SGA cards are still undervalued. But the the chase cards, National Treasures flawless, all those cards are going to be like crazy, crazy demanded now. Right? So I feel like it's going to be over. But I think SGA still a great buy like from like a certain card perspective where he's super, super undervalued. So I'm going to say it's definitely over with that card particular two for $13,522. Yeah, yeah, it's makes sense. On a roll and I agree with the National Treasures flawless, those kind of cards are going to be in super high demand now, right? Because people see that, especially raw, they're like, Oh, I could grade this and probably get a PSA six. That's true. Those cards are notorious. So whoever's buying those rods, thank you. PSA 10 National Treasures are flawless. Good luck. Careful. Yeah, be careful. Yeah. All right. Next card. Also raw. Jackson holiday. super fractor. But it's tops to 2023. tops pro debut chrome image. One of one obviously pro pro debut and it's a variation raw. So that that had to have been sorry, what was the price you said? It's over under 10,000 10,000. You're guessing rocks. I don't think that's a big card. It's a nice card. I don't think it's a big card. I'm going to say it's under because it's pro debut. Like I would say there's five other super fractors that would be highly desirable. And Jackson holiday. I remember a Vladdy tops chrome sold for like 10 grand. We were supposed to buy that tops. Like that. That card, I would say yes. Like his true tops chrome, but not his pro debut. I'm gonna say under dang three for $3,500. Yeah. Because I you know, there's a few things in play. It's a super fractor. It's Jackson holiday. You know, there may be hype on him still. But it is a pro debut card. It's a pro debut card. Yeah. All right, last one. Let's see if you could do the sweep. We're going vintage 1933 Gaudi of Babe Ruth PSA to okay, over under 10,000. I'm going to say it's over because vintage in general is is slow steady. It's not volatile. I I don't know what vintage pricing has been. But I would I would assume that any vintage is on a slow, gradual uphill trend. I could be wrong. Maybe it's gonna happen in two years. But I'm gonna roll the dice because it's in 1933. I'm gonna say people are investing their money there. So there's definitely more demand for it. So I'm going to say over 10 gate 10k. Congrats for for 13,560. This is all hobby logic. If you put on the hobby logic mindset, you'll be good. But yeah, I want to make the point that actually we know talking with DC, Daryl, our friend Daryl, vintage is like making a slow resurgence, you know, in terms of pricing, you know, we saw the boom during the hobby COVID hype, and then it dropped significantly. And then there are people speculating that, you know, there's a lot of these vintage cards out there. But you know, it's all in the grading that makes it rare, right? Like, but then, you know, so with some of these iconic cards, like the 1933 Gaudi, it's kind of less volatile. And and it's still seeing that bump from people getting into vintage more more these days, it seems. Yeah. All right, four for four. Nice. Good job. Let's end this show with our regular weekly segment called pick one. All right, this is when both of us we present two cards, and then we debate which one we would rather invest in. So do you want to start things off for us? Yeah, sure. I'm gonna, I'm gonna go into prospecting a bit just because there's a new kind of like, hype of wave players in the minor leagues coming up. And I want to talk about the number two and number three prospect in the top 100 list. Okay, so number one is Roki Sasaki. So right, rightfully so he has enormous amounts of hype. If Roki wasn't there. This person would be the number one prospect right now currently, and his name is Roman Anthony, Anthony, yes, from Boston Red Sox. So Boston, Boston Red Sox have have some interesting prospects with Marcelo Marin, Campbell, and now Roman Anthony, as their kind of future. So the Red Sox are gonna be a very, very interesting team. They have a very strong minor league system. And Roman Anthony is the number two prospect, which I believe he'll be the number one prospect within the next year or so. So his, his Bowman Chrome first auto recently PSA 10 sold for 455 bucks. Okay, so decent. So you know, you know, if you become a superstar in the MLB, those first Bowman chromes, I think I seen it 2000 to $3,000, I would say like, kind of like if you're a kuniya Soto, like, obviously, Otani is in a different category, but that's where the pricing kind of falls. So 455 bucks, if he becomes the player that people perceive him to become, that could be a decent investment, right? Being the number one or number two prospect. I'm going to pair that up. So that was from 2023 Bowman Chrome draft, his first auto Roman Anthony with the number three prospect, which I'm really high on Walker Jenkins. I think he has not yet proven his skill set. But I love the tools. I think he's going to have a breakout year in the minors. Here's the thing, Roman Anthony will probably be in the majors this year. Walker Jenkins, probably next year, I would say, depending on the season, I think he's going to have a tremendous season this year. So I think he's still going to have a bump, but not that crazy, crazy bump that Roman Anthony could have. Right. So his first Bowman Chrome PSA 10 came from 2024 Bowman Chrome $292. So you got Roman 92. So you got Roman Anthony who sold for $455. And then you got Walker Jenkins who sold for $292, $292. What's the better investment? Oh, man. Okay. I have a bias. I have a bias. I just like guys that play for big market teams. I think there's this intangible kind of value add benefit. So you know, Roman Anthony being part of the Boston Red Sox, the historic Boston Red Sox organization versus Walker Jenkins playing for the Minnesota Twins. You would know a lot more about their prospect abilities, their tools. But I'm buying into the hype, man, of Roman Anthony. I'm seeing headline after headline right now. And I knew I'm kicking myself because Roman Anthony, when I talk about prospecting, I like to go after guys that are in the number 10 to 20 range, because usually number one to 10 is overpriced. And the price is baked in because of the hype. And Roman Anthony was there for a while. And then he just moved up in the last few months. You know what I mean? All of a sudden, he's in the top five. And so now, obviously, his price values got a bump. But even when you're saying $450 for a base, that's not bad either. It's reasonable. Yeah, it was like $150 last year. You know what I mean? It's even cheaper. So at $450, it's reasonable. He hasn't played an MLB game. But I don't know, maybe there's this inherent bias, recency bias reading into the headlines. And yeah, he shares the first name with my second born son. So I think that's a clincher, Roman Anthony for me. There you go. No, I mean, I think you can't go wrong with either. Both are like very exciting players that can really hit. And that's the thing. These guys are offensive players first, with respectable defensive capabilities. But these guys are guys that can truly hit, that have power potential. They hit for average. And that's the thing. It's like Roman Anthony has... And when Roman Anthony was in the minors, he was under the radar. That's the difference. So he was so cheap at one point. And he's been climbing up. And now you have a surge of increase in his price. Whereas Walker Jenkins came in as a hype prospect. And he had six home runs last year where people were like, I thought this guy was the next goat. But that's the thing. They're both 20 years old. So super, super young. Baseball takes maturity and time to develop. So I like Walker Jenkins' price point better. Obviously, I'm a big guy on buying versus what the potential of selling is. Because I think the way you do in this market is you buy well. If you buy well, you always do well. If you buy based off price or potential price, that's where you end up kind of chasing and you end up holding the bags. Because if you look at Wyatt Lankford's PSA 10 Bowman first, it's around whatever 500 same price as that Roman Anthony. So I'd rather spend that 500 on like a Wyatt Lankford. Although Roman and like I said, he could be he's going to be a star in the big leagues, right? It's just a matter of timing. But I'm going to go Walker Jenkins just because price point you're you're 30% cheaper than or whatever 40% cheaper than the Roman Anthony. And I really, really think Walker Jenkins is going to have a coming out season this year. So I'm going to go Walker Jenkins. All right. Yeah, no, it makes sense to me. Every time I talk to you about different baseball players and rookie cards, I add another person to my watch list. So that's Wyatt Lankford a couple weeks ago. Now it's Walker Jenkins. Guys, this is not financial advice. All of this. Yes. All of this. These are just five card guys that like cards. Our opinions. Yes, that's it. Great disclaimer. All right, let's on that front. I'm going to higher end. Okay, so this is not financial advice. At the $50,000 mark. Okay. I always like to play in the high end. Would you rather have the 2024 tops Chrome logo superfractor of Ellie de la Cruz? Okay. Autograph card PSA 1010. All right. Or would you rather have the 2019 Bowman draft Chrome? First Bowman auto red refractor of Gunnar Henderson PSA nine auto 10 for 50k. Yeah. Red of Gunnar PSA nine, or Ellie logo fractor superfractor PSA 1010. Here's the thing. I really like Ellie. Like I think okay, I think his ceiling is astronomical as a player. But but his prices reflect that already. Yes. They reflect who he's supposed to become. And it goes back to the whole buying thing. I don't think there's room in Ellie, especially that logo fractor. Yeah. There could be I could be totally wrong because he could be an absolute superstar and that thing sells for 200k. Right. But I feel like Gunnar Henderson is a safer bet because I think he's already performed. He's already showed what he can do. And he hasn't necessarily reached his potential either. Right. Whereas Ellie put up, I would say mediocre seasons for Ellie, like respectable. It's kind of like O'Neal Cruz. O'Neal Cruz's ceiling is ridiculous and then you see him do what he did in spring training like hit 120 mile an hour exit velo off the bat that goes over the second baseman's head that ends up leaving the yard. You know what I mean? Like stupid stuff like that where you're like, oh my god, if O'Neal Cruz figures it out, if Ellie Dela Cruz figures it out, if James Wood figures it out, these guys are the superstars. But at $50,000, I'm going with the Gunnar Henderson red. Okay, that's even expensive. Yes, it is for Yeah, for a short career record. So yeah, Juan Soto. Absolutely. Like I meant. So that's a deal. Yeah. But between those two cards, like, I'd like and here, here, here's the thing. I love logo fractors. I think they're so underrated in general, but they are a niche brand, kind of like I would say under Sapphire, where it's like somebody rather have a true orange than orange Sapphire. Somebody rather have a true orange or true gold than a Sapphire gold orange. Yes. Right. So I would say logo fractors one step under Sapphire. Right. So that's the only thing first Bowman is the staple. Gunnar Henderson read the only better card is a super fractor, which I think is a quarter million dollar card anyway. So I'm going to go with the red. The Gunnar Henderson red sweep. I asked this because like I had I pull that le out of 50 that gold insert card, which I sold for 50 bucks. The other day, I only hit I sold my only hit from we made a 30, 40% back from a rip. But I'm selling because his, you know, there are there are only buyers there because his name is hyped, you know, and it's not that to your point, it's not that I don't like Ellie. I think he's exciting, dynamic player. I love seeing him. But for me, it's like, he needs to be a little bit more consistent, especially with the hitting, you know, like, he his speed is unreal. Like, that's what makes him exciting. Right. And I think that's what he's known for more. And I think if the hitting doesn't come around more consistently, then his prices will begin to drop. And the other way of thinking about this is, if the red first Bowman red refractor of if it was flipped, you know, like, it was Ellie's red refractor. First Bowman chrome that I was talking about PSE nine, it'll be way more than 50,000. Yeah, right. Yeah, exactly. I mean, yeah. And so that's just speaking to your point of Ellie just being over way overvalued right now compared to gunner Henderson himself, you know, and I'm super high on gunner this year. I think he's kind of underrated in a lot of ways for sure. Right. And you got to like like the moves that Orioles made too. So like, for me, it's like gunners really protected in that lineup. It's a lefty stick. They got Tyler O'Neill right right hand stick with power. So I mean, there's there's a lot of upside in gunner, I would like to see gunner hit between 280 300. That's his kicker. If he falls to like the 250 to 280 mark, I think his his markets going to kind of like just kind of go sideways. If he starts hitting 280 300 plus, and we're talking MVP type numbers, and gunner has that upside to him because he's a war monster. So he could hit 260 and still produce 260 with 30 home runs and still produce a six plus war, right? So to me, that's what I like about gunner is his career longevity in terms of war. He's a war machine, because he does both pretty well. And he's a game changer in that aspect. And I just like kind of the situation where gunner is where he's under the radar. I still think gunner in general is a buy. And that's what a lot of these guys like Ellie might be overpriced, but I guarantee you there's some cards that are underpriced. So it can't be black and white where Oh, I think Ellie is completely overvalued because I think there's super niche car and it goes back to the SGA. It's like there's national treasures flawless that everybody wants that are limited. So they only look at that. But then the real value is in SGA is, you know, prism colored or, you know, even his autos prism autos where prism auto suck, right? Nobody wants those autos or optic autos or whatever it is in basketball, at least baseball. Yeah, you know, they love the auto. So I think there's plays always in every player that you like. It's just don't chase the hype. Great point. Yeah, great point. And on off with his going back to gunner just for a quick sec, his composite 2025 projections, 31 home runs 17 stolen bases with a 275 batting average. So it's very good. He does that. He does that. Yeah, I think it'll be good. Alright, another great show. We hope you guys enjoyed it. And yeah, we'll have a brand new episode for you guys on Friday. Talk to you then. Bye. Hey, thanks for listening to cards to the moon. We'd really appreciate you subscribing to our podcast wherever you listen to your podcasts. And you can also connect with each of us on Instagram at five card guys. Or you can follow him at integrity sports cards, or john at trade you at recess. You can also check us out at five card guys.com. Thanks again, and hope to connect soon.