CardsHQ, CardVault By Tom Brady, Other Big Retail Stores The Future Of The Hobby?; Revisiting PSA Value Tier Stoppage; Plus Another Round Of Over/Under (Superfractor Edition)

You're listening to Cards to the Moon, a podcast about trading cards from both a collector and investor perspective. We hope you'll stick around for the ride as we take a deep dive into the state of the hobby. Share some hot takes, hopefully some useful advice and fun stories along the way. Hey guys, welcome back to Cards to the Moon. This is episode 373 and my name is Clark from 5Card Guys.com. you can also find me at 5Card Guys all spelled out all one word on Instagram, Facebook, YouTube and TikTok.co hosting with me is Hyung who is o Hyang on IG and YouTube. All right, off the top. It's been a couple weeks, Hyung, since we were last on the pot together and a lot has happened in the hobby as it usually does. I don't know if you heard last week's episode, but D.C. and I, we talked about the big updates with PSA last week and I did a mini rant on the Friday episode. But Hyung, I want to get your thoughts on it because I know you dug up a bunch of nice bass and refractor rookie cards of Ohtani from the days when you ripped a ton that you just had lying around. And I know you wanted to get them graded, presumably with psa, but now with all the value service tiers halted for at least 4, 5, 6 months, it looks like I'm wondering what are you planning to do now? And second question, a follow up question to that is do you think this temporary pause in the value tiers will also result in a liquidity crunch within the hobby? So first, what are you planning to do with your cards that you had that you wanted to submit to psa? You know what, it's one of those things where you needed to trust your gut. Like do you know when you go against your gut? And I should have submitted it right before because I had till June 2 to I think submit it and I got lazy and well, not lazy, maybe busy and I didn't end up submitting it. But yeah, that kind of sucks. That really put a wrinkle in my plan. But at the end of the day I think Ohtani is pretty safe regardless. And maybe it's a blessing in disguise that I'm not sending it and I'm okay with it because it's kind of like my Ohtani collection. It's just I wanted to somewhat cash out on a lot of the stuff that wasn't even sleeved or anything, right? So it would have been a good event, a liquid event for Me, but I'm happy with keeping it. Okay. And the second part, you think there's going to be a liquidity crunch, you know, like people are. Especially if you did get in before June 2nd, now you're waiting for a while to get it back. Eight, nine, even 10 months. Do you think they're gonna just wait on that or what do you think is gonna happen to the hobby in this next year? Yeah, no, I mean, people who one are getting delayed on theirs. It's definitely. And it could go both ways. We could say, you know, timing made them, you know, they should have liquidated earlier or graded earlier because the timing is off, because PSA is late, they might have missed the boat. But at the same time it goes hand in hand. I think what DC was mentioning, it's like the delay was a blessing in disguise. Right. Because it made you kind of hold the Ohtani's and the values doubled. You know, so there's, there's both cases and you could argue both depending on what side you're sitting on. Right. So. Yeah, yeah. Honestly, for me, like, I kind of talked about this on the Friday episode, but, you know, the regular service is still open. I think people are willing to pay the $80 still. You know, I think, I mean, I mean, you have to reassess what you're sending. Sure. Can't. I think, I think with the value bulk and stuff like that, the minimum PSA 10 requirements would have been like a hundred to $150 in terms of a PSA 10. So I think now that just doubles it. So I'm guessing you don't really want to send in cards under that $300. Maybe my math's wrong, but that's where I would have, I would look into, see if, okay, if, if I'm sending a card for $80, what's the PSA 9 value of that card? Yeah, you got it. You got to make your 80, at least cover it. And then the PSA 10 would be kind of like you're crossing fingers that, you know, if you do hit that becomes very profitable or at least that's how I submit and qualify what I grade. So I think it just. Yeah, you're right. People are going to still submit. It's just a higher buy in, which is fine. PSA is still going to make a ton of money. And psa, I think, is the only company that could mess up their. Not mess up, but like they're so backed up in their internal. And it's a good thing for them because they could make hundreds of more millions of dollars on their regular service because people are still willing to pay for it. Ridiculous. What a business. What a business. Great business model. You know, I know this is getting Will really angry because it's just the, the fact that you could provide slower service, increase charges and you still have a profitable business. And that's what we have to learn. It's like, you know, why, why is that? The case is like obviously PSA is the king in the marketplace, but you know, if you see what like PSAs doing, they're in every single layer of the system, right? They're embedded in that secondary market. So it's like, that's the value of it. People are willing to pay enormous, enormous amounts of money. And it shows from the upper high end cards. That's why. And it trickles down, right? So PSA 10 just has that marketing power that they are king. And you know what they don't have to try to push? Oh, we have a special and get sales and hit numbers. The demand is there so much that it's all in the marketing. It's all in the brand perception and the market resale value. And unfortunately, yeah, you could argue is PSA superior? Probably not in terms of quality or whatever you want to justify it as, but it has nothing to do with that. At the end of the day, hey, it's has everything to do with, you know, what PSA is perceived by the whole marketplace as a whole for sure the marketing leads to the higher roi, right? And so I think as consumers, if you really want to change and it's harder to do it now because Beckett and SGC are owned by the same umbrella company. But you need other grading companies to be competitive and to have better ROI in terms of like us submitting to them and then us willing to buy other graded cards, other greatest slabs for a higher price value. But I don't know, can CGC10 ever get there with sports cards? We talked about that with DC. It doesn't seem likely right now. Can tag 10 get there? You know, they're even there fumbling the ball. And actually a really interesting question that DC brought up was that, you know, tag 10, you know, flaunt itself as being a AI driven company, but they're also halting services. Like, we don't get why that's the case. If they're, you know, not dependent on humans as much as psa, why are, you know, like what's. But that, that could just straight up show the enormous amounts of demand in, in our hobby, right? It's just, you know, we're not looking at it as a whole where, how much, how much our hobby has grown in terms of participation, even on the, you know, TCG side. Right. So it's like they're getting an influx amount no matter if they have AI and it no longer becomes anything to do with sports cards. Has everything to do with business and scalability. And some people have it and some people don't. And you've seen it in companies like Beckett where they struggled to scale. Yet some companies like psa, I mean, while they're having hurdles of scaling to enormous amounts of levels, like right now, they've still scaled, you know, they're grading millions and millions of cards as opposed to, you know, back in 2019, whatever it was. Right. So, yeah, I mean, it's, it's more of an operational thing. And, and I go back to this, like, how many of your collection or of the cards you have? How many or how many CSG or cgc. CGC or TAG cards do you personally own? I own two TAG cards. Zero cgc. Okay. And is that, is any in sports? No. Okay, point. It's that. That's it. It's just doesn't matter. And you're, you're, I would say you're very neutral in this because you want tag to blow up. You want. But at the end of the day, where your actions are showing it until the market proves what it proves. Right. And that's, that's the thing. It's, it's no matter what, that's what you're up against. That was my initial PSA rant. And I, you know, what was a couple of weeks ago, I said there's a level of accountability. We need to take ourselves as consumers, as buyers, as collectors if we want to see real systemic change. And, but it's just easier to blame. But, but it's impossible to do it because we all have personal biases and agendas. So for instance, we talk about liquidity on the show. Yeah, right. Does PSA 10 provide liquidity over any other card? So that's what I'm saying. So we can't necessarily do dog that because it's an exit strategy for all, all of us. And we are not complaining about that at all. Right. You know, but we're taking advantage of it. I guarantee you, everybody is. So that's why I'm more neutral. I get it. Like, there's, there's a lot of negative and bad stuff that we could talk about psa, but at the same time, we all benefit from it and it's the marketplace as a whole. So it's just a different perspective and on kind of giving PSA more slack just because you know what, you can't sit at both sides and, you know, complain. You got it. You know, if one side's, you're benefiting from it, then you got to see it as equal value. Right. So it's, it's, we always come down to this. It's a love hate relationship with people. Love hate. That's perfect. Yeah, absolutely. All right. Thanks for your insight, your input. I was really curious to see where you stood and what were you going to do with those Otani cards. I guess you're holding. And until the. I think it started as a 10 million card backlog, but on the day they announced that they would close submissions for value tiers, another 2 1/2 million were submitted. So it's up to 12 1/2, 13 million. I gotta say, Clark, let me end off on this note. Okay? Sure. You're running a billion dollar company. I don't know if it's billion dollars, but it should be soon. It will be multi. Yeah, yeah. You cannot figure out AI right now. Like you can't figure out the process like you could. It's hard to implement it. Yeah. I'm telling you could figure hire someone that knows how to do it and just do it. Like it's not hard. Right. And to me it would totally take the subjectivity out of grading. Right. All the funny business would be eliminated. Turnaround times would be way quicker, you know. Yeah. There's so many benefits. Their backlog would disappear. And to me it's like, what's that? But tag. But TAG is at. It's different. It's different because TAG is an operational. They're not experts in scaling where PSA level scaled their business to. They're too small. You're saying they're too small. You have to understand scale at hundreds of millions of dollars. And that's where PSA is at. So PSA issue isn't a scaling issue, it's a technology issue in a bottleneck. Right. So it's implementing the right technology to now make the ship run smoothly. You've scaled it to a billion dollar company. And if you want to get to two, three, four billion dollars, it's not people adding more people that's going to solve the issue. It's adding the right technology that's accessible that will expedite that process. Right. You could hire me PSA if you want consultation. So they're not going to hire you, they're just going to buy out Tag. That's their next. Yes, that's their next move. Just become a full out monopoly. All right, let's move on to hobby headlines. All right, so I saw sports card investor Jeff Wilson announced that Cards hq, they received a sizable investment from Shamrock Capital which will fund such initiatives as opening additional retail locations. That's the big announcement. Also expanding breaking and e commerce experiences, hosting more live events. And in their press release, it's a significantly broadening inventory selection. The next retail location is set to open later this year with additional flagship locations planned in major markets across the us. Now to me, that's big news with another being another bullish sign of the industry growing. Of course, we heard similar news like this from Card Vault by Tom Brady. They've been expanding very rapidly across the States. More recently though, Dave and Adams, I don't know if this kind of went under the radar a little bit, but they're partnering with Lewis Hamilton of all people, to launch Card Culture by Lewis Hamilton, which is a global trading card retail venture that targets expansion across Europe and beyond. So with all those news, I want to take a step back and you know, because when we think traditionally what we thought of the hobby, we were thinking mom and pop LCs local card shops, and we even talked about it on this pod, that a healthy hobby should see more LCS shops continue to grow. But with these bigger retailers really expanding into the hobby space, do you think this is the future of the hobby? Do you think this is where we're just going generally speaking, you know, is it better for the hobby or do you think both can coexist and if so, what's the right balance? So just your initial thoughts on all these new developments happening in the hobby? Some old school heads might not like this, what I'm about to say. Okay, well first, I think local card shops are going to struggle. I've mentioned this many times previously, two, three, four years ago even, because like I said, the whole industry has shifted. It is no longer the 1990s and 2000s. Therefore you cannot apply the same principles that you applied that was successful in the 90s and 2000s to today's marketplace and companies like Cards HQ, the rapid expansion of the hobby, the high vision of fanatics and where they're trying to go, all these bigger capital brands like Cards hq, they're seeing it, what the stakeholders want and they're following. Right? And this is, this is important and I know morally whether you agree or disagree it's business, it doesn't have any morals other than legality. Are they doing anything like illegal? If not, it's fair game and that's the way industries work and those are the movers. So to me it's inevitable because like I said, it goes back to what technology is available now for card shops. What are they doing to be creative, to create new revenue streams that wasn't there before? Can I implement new technology to better process my customer experience? Can I have social media as an engine to create enormous amounts of demand for my clients? For instance, stuff like that, where these guys like Jeff Wilson, they understand this, they understand this is the foundation to do business. They understand what fanatics wants, maybe their vision, I don't know what their high level vision is, but I would imagine that allocation is going to be set to these big boys as opposed to local card shows or stores. They're not going to get any allocation. You've seen it in the last four or five years. That was the trend. So to me it's not surprising. You know, we've talked about this, it was a matter of when it was going to happen and I think more and more people are going to catch on to this. Even Dave and Adams, they're not just stopping where they used to be. They were, yes, the largest hobby, one of the largest hobby shops, you know, across the world. But they're seeing that, hey, we got to adapt, we got to be able to be creative and you know, create our demand and our brand in the digital space. So that's kind of, yeah, how I see it. It's a no brainer. Is it going to affect local car shops? Absolutely. Right. Will it take the fun out of the hobby the way we used to do it? Absolutely. But it is what it is. Yeah, I think you're right. A lot of old school heads won't like hearing that and I guess it depends for me on who is still in the hobby. Right. Local card shops, I see them almost as those mom and pop corner bookstores that used to exist and then here in Canada, Indigo chapters kind of wipe them away. But even that's not a good comp because those big retailer box stores are also disappearing because of what's going on digitally. Right. So I, I almost see this as, I don't know if you've got. When the last time you went bowling, when, like when, you know, when the last time you went bowling you think of like, like a huge space, physical space, because you need all those alleys and you know, it's how do you say it? It's old. It's, you know, old school. Right. And, and you know, you see in the movies, like, oh, there's a lot of middle aged men just bowling. But if you've gone recently, the ones that are doing really well also have a big arcade, like a gaming experience. They have a nice bar, pub, restaurant. They have my, my kid, I just, just went to a birthday party and it was, they had an amazing time at a, what is traditionally a bowling alley. Yeah. But they have all these other things that they can bring people in and just had to have a good time. So I kind of see it as what's going on with Cards HQ Carve Out. It's becoming a destination because of the experience that these places offer. And you know, these local card shops that don't adapt that just think that their stores is a destination because there's inventory. I mean bigger stores can just do that better and they'll have more in stock. Like the worst thing of going to a local card shops that's small, it's like, oh, I want a 2026 Bowman baseball. And you're like, well, we're sold out. I'm like, okay, so I, why did he even come? I could have just ordered on, you know, online or going to a bigger store with more inventory. Yeah. So it can't just be about having inventory for sure. No. And that's the thing. It's like, that's the adaptation that you're going to. And everything you said is 100% true because the way, you know, these bigger stores are looking at it, especially if you have capital investments coming from private equity or wherever it is, it's, it's going to, you know, you're going to need to layer your business model. You're going to have to have multiple revenue streams. You might have four or five different businesses within your business that's paying, you know, an equal rent share that offsets, you know, your overhead, for instance. So it's like if you're a hobby shop owner, right now I'd be thinking of, you know, stacking different types of businesses within the business, different revenue streams. Using digital as a way, there's different, you know, ways that you could stack revenue. And that's exactly what these places like Cards HQ is doing. And like I said, the digital side becomes the justification on owning a physical experience because they go hand in hand and people see the experience and they want to experience it. So it's a marketing ecosystem because it's like, why would you want to Go to Fanatics Fest for instance. The only reason is because you've seen it on social media and you've seen the experience and you want to experience it, right? So marketing social media becomes, has to become the engine of experience because, and then it feeds itself because once you go there now, now they have more content as an experience and then they, the more they put it out there, the more people come. Right? So it's stuff like that where this is what we're talking about of adapting to kind of like what technology is offering right now and how you could position yourself to take advantage or at least, you know, be successful and within your own business. Right? So like I said, it's not about, you know, feeling bad about these hobby shops. It's saying, hey, it's if you want to exist, you got to do things differently. You got to start thinking differently. You got to, you know, invest in areas that are going to be, you know, you know, valuable to what is lacking within our industry. And I say this all the time, it's like you don't have to chase, you don't have to do what Jeff Wilson's doing. What you have to do is find the gap, find the problems within the industry and service them really well. Whether it's a local PSA drop off center, whether it's, you know, breaking or whether it's, you know, whatever it is, Trade nights, this is what people value. And as long as you cater to the value, the monetization will come after that. Right? So there's, yeah, it's a mindset where you're not trying to chase results. You're kind of becoming valuable within the space and that's why you get paid for what your worth. I agree 100%. I'm glad you brought that last point up because I think that's how local card shops or smaller card shops can coexist. Can actually survive in a way that you know, might be counterintuitive. You know, you might think like, oh I wish I had more inventory. But that's the old school way of thinking. But you'll get that allocation if you provide good value to your customers. And guess what? Topps fanatics will say, oh, this card is providing great value, let's give them more because they're servicing their community really well. So to your point, Trade nights host a really great trade night where people have a great time. You know, shout out to Mint Inc. They're a smaller retailer, comparatively speaking, when we're talking about Cards HQ and Card Vault by Tom Brady. But I See, Trey, you savage going to their stores and they, you know, film content. And guess what? That's how they also provide value, by providing content on their social media. But, you know, people like to follow them because they're always filming content constantly. And. And if you provide value that way, guess what you're also doing? Increasing your brand awareness, for sure. And they're like, oh, I heard of Mint Inc. Or I've heard of Cards to the Moon, the podcast. And I know they're from Toronto, and when I'm in Toronto, for whatever reason, I wouldn't mind dropping by. And I think that's kind of, in a very small way what I saw personally at the Sport Card Expo, just setting up a booth. I wasn't even selling many cards, but people were coming by to say hi because they were listeners of the POD and just building that brand awareness of who we are as a podcast, who five card guides are, and just constantly pushing digital content. So it feels like they're. They know you already. Yeah. And so if they know you, it's like a relationship. Right. So then if in the same way, if you have a card store, that's what I would be doing. Just how do I build this brand? You know, Bleecker Trading, great example, nyc. You know, they're a very small card shop, but I've seen athletes going to that place. I've seen them having train nights that are always packed, especially when Fanatics Fest happens in New York. And I'm like, next time I come to New York, I want to go check out Bleecker Trading. You know, just for the experience, you know, I might not buy anything or I might look around, but I know that a lot of hobby industry, you know, movers and shakers have gone there, and there must be a reason why they're checking it out too, what kind of value they're providing. So in the same way, I think that's what LCS has to, like, owners have to start to really wrap their head around. Yeah, yeah, no, for sure. And that's why, you know, branding is so important, because. And people don't see branding as a tangible value. Right. They can't necessarily say it's worth this much, so they're not willing to necessarily invest in it. And that's the dangers of it. Because branding becomes the number one thing in your business because monetization can happen. Like, if you. If you build, like, let's just say, a massive brand with millions and millions of followers within whatever industry. Right. You could find a way to monetize off those million followers. It doesn't have to be your bread and butter. And that's why, that's the difference between branding versus saying, oh, I have a business model and I have to make money this way. So in this case it would be inventory. I have to. That's the way I've been making money. And it's a 30%, 40% margin, net margin, whatever it is. That's what we're talking about. It's like, well, no longer can you get allocation, so what are you going to do next to now? Fill that void and gap. And you have to start thinking, you know, how important that branding is. And like you said, I guarantee some of those guys that are influencers, they're gonna be so busy in terms of making deals. Cause people wanna make deals with them, so they're gonna always be liquid. So they've created a ecosystem of liquidity. So it's like whenever they need to sell a $20,000 card, they're gonna sell it because they put it up on Instagram and it's like, I'll take it. Right? And it's like, done. Yeah. And yeah. And people that want to make deals with them because they're like, I just made a deal with king of the cards. Or you know, people that have this reputation that follows them. Right, the clout. Exactly. So I'll say this one last thing just to kind of end off the segment. But you know, I empathize with old school owners that just know the old school way of doing business. Maybe they're just older and for them a branding exercise is just not in their cards. So unfortunately though, complaining about it won't make it any better. That's the, that's the reality of the situation for sure. And in, in a way, whether they end up losing their shop, which is obviously you don't want to see anyone go out of business, but that's how business works. Like kind of going full circle to what you're saying. It doesn't have morals in that sense. Where it's like, oh, we should give this shop a chance or not. It's about where we are as an industry, how are they profitable and that's how things keep going. If I was, yeah, if I was an old school head owning a hobby shop, I would partner up with a younger kid that knows what they're doing. Right. Like stuff like that and vice versa. If we have young listeners here, if you're valuable and you know you're valuable, go up to a local car shop owner and say, Hey, I could bring this side. You know, how can we, you know, make a deal and figure out what that's worth, whether it's, you know, and that's, that's up to the individual. But my whole point is, you know, start thinking outside the box where, hey, if you don't have a skill set, don't call quits. I think that's the worst thing you could do. I think it would be like, like you said, we talked off air, you know, about pivoting with five card guys. You know, it's same thing when markets are bad. You got to do things differently or at least think about things differently. You got to try. You're going to fail. You try again, you're going to fail, and then you try the third time, maybe you hit right. And that's kind of like the way it goes, really. So I would. My suggestion is, you know, partner up with the right people. Like, it's always hard to do things by yourself because then you have to wear many hats and your allocated time is in all those many processes. It's better to take less of a cut. Find three or four really good people at what they do. Whether it's running a business, whether it's, you know, purchasing or finding good deals or buying for your company, whether it's, hey, this guy knows a good network. I have a guy that sells memorabilia. I give him 5% if I need to sell memorabilia. It's easy, it's liquid. So it's like, I'd rather partner up than try to list those items. You know, stuff like that, where, you know, if you have a team, you could be so much more efficient. So that's my suggestion. Yeah, great point. And guarantee you'll enjoy the process a lot more. And I always say this, as long as you enjoy the process of what you're doing, attaining that goal, it's just a fun challenge and kind of tying into what you're just saying. You will definitely enjoy the process a lot more when you're working with a team that you trust and the other people that do certain things better than you let them handle it. And then you could focus on the ones, the things that you're really passionate about, the things that you're really good at. And then it's kind of a win, win situation at that point, for sure. So, yeah, a lot of things changing the hobby. And this is again why I'm so bullish about it. And you know, even, even this kind of news for us personally, we're just talking about, like, what could Be, what potential can there be for even us as we dive deeper into the hobby? For sure, with the podcast, with the branding of five Card Guys, it's just, just talking about it excites us in a sense where we see just enormous, even more growth into the future. And the thing is, you don't necessarily have to think too far. You just have to do, do it. And then as you do it, it opens up different doors and opportunities that it didn't exist. Like, I'm sure you experienced this with five Card guys two years ago. You couldn't do things two years ago that would be relevant today. Right? So it's like stuff like that where you just have to go do it, enjoy the process and not try to make the result or try to say, I gotta be somewhere or I'm trying to do this. It usually happens not the way you planned it, if that makes sense. For sure. And I'll say we keep adding to it. But it's, it's such a good point because with five Car guys, like, did I expect to do even a weekly podcast or five, six years, when I started out the Instagram page posting, I would have said no, Clark, like, what are you doing? I'm just posting really nice high end cards on social media, on Instagram every day, every single day. You know, I'm gonna just do one a day. And then that became two a day, that became five a day. Then you know, other software became involved where I could schedule certain posts. That becomes 10 a day easily with less work. And then, you know, you meet people online, you meet people like for us, we knew each other for a long time, but we got reconnected through cards and we're talking about podcasts all of a sudden and here we are and now it's, you know, just off air. I was saying, yeah, I'm trying to book a flight to New York so I could go to Fanatics Festival one day and I'm going to go to West Coast Card show the next day and then I'm going to fly because I think it'll be a great piece of content when I'm done with it. I could not have imagined that scenario, that kind of discussion. When I started day one when I opened five Card Guys on Instagram. I love it, I love it. And that's why that message should be like, if you're, if you're any age, like we're talking, I don't care if you're 16 years old, I don't care if you're 50, 44. Years old, same applies. And like, you know what I mean? There's so much opportunity in this growing market and you know, you just have to, you know, learn from your failures and kind of go. And you're saying that you're bullish in this hobby. I had a conversation with random people and all, everyone tells me their kids trade cards non stop. All of it, all the boys. Right. So to me it's, I'm like, wow, like that's a resurgence of our childhood. Yes. Right. And the amount of people that's going to enter the hobby within the next five, 10 years, just seeing that, I'm talking exponential growth. Right. So yeah, for me, I, yeah, I see it in, in just everyday life now. And it's, it's crazy. Before we used to say the hobby so niche sports cards, it's so niche. It's like that's not an investment class or you know, whatever it is, it's now it's, it's very known. Everybody trades. It's crazy. Like, and it's just fast forward. And it's funny because we've, we've been saying it on the podcast for the last three years. We're bullish on this market and we're actually seeing it in real time. Absolutely skyrocket in, in the middle of chaos when our whole world's upside down. You know, the sports card hobby is, is booming. It's crazy. Exactly. No, that's, that's a hundred percent. And, and yeah, it's funny you brought up your friend just bringing up cards and their kids getting to cards. And I was just at my youngest son's t ball game and I ran into a parent I haven't seen in a while and she was asking me what I'm doing these days. I'm like, yeah, I'm just creating content for the sports card, for the hobby, this industry. And, and she's like, okay, I'll follow you. And then she's like 55,000 followers. Like it's a thing that, where we are now. Yeah. And so, you know, and I think this is a great way to end this segment. But I remember Jeremy Lee when he was on our pod a few years ago, one of the best piece of advice is to just start, just do something because we're still early. Despite everything that's happened, all the news that keeps on coming on the hobby in the industry. I'm telling you, we're still early in the process and there's a lot more room to grow. So if you're listening to this and you're on the fence about doing something in the hobby. Just start and see where it leads you. Trust me, it'll open more doors that way by just doing something. All right, let's go to our next segment. It's over under. Okay. We haven't done this in a while and this is going to be one of the more difficult over unders because each of the cards are one of one or super fractures. Oh, wow. Okay. And the reason why I thought about this, I. A few weeks ago I did a co or joint podcast with Paul Hickey sports card strategy show. And I was sharing my new sports, my new strategy in trying to invest in some of these cards. It's a super fracture strategy, which is because there's no comps or there's not a lot of comps with one of ones, you got to go with your gut a lot of times. High risk, high reward play. And if you like the design of the card, if you like the player that's on it, if you like the brand of the card, if it's tops chrome or if it's even a smaller subset, if that, if everything breaks right, you could ask for whatever you want really, because you just need one buyer. You know what I mean? So on. Conversely, it could be worth zero because no one wants the one of one. But the upside is there. So anyway, some, some of you might think, oh, these prices are outrageous, but trust me, you could, you could probably 2.3x on some of these cards. So I'm gonna put the number 10,000 out there. All right. Over under 10,000 for. For these cards. First one it just sold yesterday, I believe the 2023 Topps transcendent platinum patch auto patch autograph card of Ronald Acuna Jr. Graded a BGS 9.5 10 auto. It's. It's a super fracture or just the 101. Like is it actual super fracture? It might be of one of one because it's a patch auto. But so it would be kind of like it's still a 101, just not a super fracture. I don't think. Yes, I think that's the case. I could double check. But yeah, I just wanna. Because I appeal has a lot to do with super fractors, I think and obviously popular sets. So it's not a super fracture. It is just a one of one. I think that market is not there yet. But I could be wrong. It could be trending up. But maybe it. Because that would have been. I would say maybe a few years ago that would have been maybe A three thousand dollar card. So maybe at six, maybe it's seven, maybe it's nine. I don't think it reached quite over that ten part, but it could be twenty k too. That's, that's the crazy part about our market is because one idiot could have bought it for 20k. So I'm gonna say under not there yet. You're right. You're right. 5,300. Okay for that one of one. Yeah. I mean you could say idiot, but he could also end up being a genius at 20k though. I don't know. That's a lot. That's a lot. That's a lot. Yeah, you're right. All right, let's go on to the 2024. And it was a non rookie card too. So yeah, that's why all these factors you have to consider. Right, for sure. And, but that's what appealed to me as a one of one super factor or one of one strategy is that there's. We joke how many one of ones are out there? Not all one of ones are created equal. So you got to be selective. Right. And then there's also a premium for main sets. So tops, chrome, super fractures, big time set. So it's gonna way pace, you know, tops, transcendent even. Right. So for sure. Yeah. All those factors you need to consider. Okay, next one. 20, 24 panini select black disco prism, which is a one of one rookie card of Bo Nicks, the Denver Broncos QB. Do you have a picture? It's raw. It's raw. Yeah. Black disco is those bubbles. Yeah, I know. I, I don't love them. June in June. Over 10k. I don't think. I don't think so. Like I want to see this though. I want to see the eye appeal. I, I appeal matters. You got to show me these cards. Okay. Oh man. Oh, the value's right there though. Thanks. So you ruined it. I would, I would, I would, I would have said under anyways. I would have said under for sure. Just because, you know, like, like I said, it's one, it's select. So I don't know. And then there's different levels of select and then you have black bubbles as the super fractor. It's not true. Super fractor, which panini doesn't even call super fractor in the first place. So I think if it was a true black different story. No chance. Over 10. Yeah. So you, you, you would have been right. It's 5,655. Yep. Okay, here's a little bit more challenging because the player is much better than Bonix 2018 Josh Allen. And it's this rookie card. Yeah. It's also shield patch, player worn material and the grade is BGS9 with a 10 auto. Do you have it without the price, the picture or. No, no, it's okay. Okay. Shield. Shield patch. VGS9. What set? From the. It's from the 2018 Panini. Phoenix. Phoenix. Oh man. Other details. I believe it's a sticker auto. But it is a laundry tag. NFL shield. Yeah. Like to me rookie year. It's rookie or second year. Josh Allen was 2018. Yes. 2018. Right. He was in 2017. I guess. 2018. He was 2017. It says his rookie jersey. Autograph. Yes. Okay. RC logo on it. Okay, so I'm gonna say over. I'm gonna say over. Yeah, I'm gonna say over. You're right. Three for three today. 15,000. Wow. Yeah. So that's a. That's a good example of. There's a lot of things going for that card. Yeah, exactly. That's. That's. That's the only way I'm. I'm assessing this. Still a rookie. Yeah. If it's a rookie patch auto. One of. One of Josh Allen. Like it had like it could be underpriced too. We don't know the market. Right. Yeah, for sure. Okay, last one. This is pretty tough. Or it could be a trick question. I don't know which way you'll go with it but the 20, 25 tops. Bowman's best. So you know the brand. Bowman's best. One of one super fracture logo man patch card of Jack Caglion. Okay. They. It has a lot of things going for this card. Yep. Because patch logo, man patch. It's hot because recent years. Let me see how Jack's doing though. Six homers batting.243. Not great. So this is Casey Royals a little disappointing, but yeah. Okay. So my thinking is he's still hot in terms of a prospect and Bowman's best release is still pretty expensive and access is still pretty expensive. So I would assume the market is still overpaid a bit. There's a lot going with Jack Caglion being a prospect. I'm gonna say it's over. Somebody paid for it. Somebody got emotional and overpaid. His hype has definitely simmered down since he was called up. Still over 19,950. There you go. Emotional. Dang. I mean it is a nice patch, a beauty. A big patch on card Auto. But the, the picture of Jack is like an Illustrated one, too. Not worth 19. Yet. Yet. Yes, yet. All right. Wow. I think you swept. I did sweep, yeah. This is just logic, though. Using your life, not hobby logic. That's the problem. You can. I can't use hobby logic. Real logic. Okay. Real logic. All right. Let's end off our episode with our regular weekly segment we call Pick one. You got one for us? Yes, I do. I'm actually excited about this one because we got a nice Topps Chrome Ohtani. You see that? The 2018 Super Fractor. It's on golden, I believe, and it's currently at 1.5 million and ends June 28, the auction. So we don't know what this is going to go for. There's speculation anywhere from 3 million to 12 million, right? We don't know that. Okay. That's crazy. So I'm going to put that card and we're going to see. This is going to be a follow up because we're going to see where that lands. So you got to commit to that card at that price. Okay. But whatever it is, I would say it would probably fall between 5 to 10. I know that sounds crazy for a non auto, but Ohtani's Ohtani, so I wouldn't be surprised. It's 1.5 with a month left and Ohtani just had a ridiculous. Another ridiculous game. So I'm going to put that 2018 Topps Chrome rookie super fractor up against the Aaron Judge Bowman chrome auto super fractor that sold for 5.2 million back in March. Right. I am going with. You got to commit to that Ohtani. So it might be overpaying. Like, let's just say it goes for 10. That's what you would have paid over the 5 million dollar Bowman Chrome Auto. It's crazy. I mean, I know we keep saying this about the Ohtani card market and we're proven wrong time and time again, but this is too crazy. Aaron Judge. I'm going with Aaron Judge. That is the Auto. Auto. Yeah. Auto. Not. And the Ohtani is a tops Chrome super fractor. But it's gonna outsell, in my opinion, this Bowman Chrome Auto. Or it can. It can. Yeah, it can. It might not, but I wouldn't be surprised if it went 5 to 10. That's why I'm saying it's not worth. I. Maybe it is. That's why it's. It's one of those questions that we had at the superfractor with the superfractors. I'm going with Aaron Judge still. I think I doubted Aaron Judge for Too long. And I think he's cemented himself as a New York Yankees legend. I think that has a lot of cachet to it. So over time, I am more comfortable with the $5 million investment in Aaron Judge. And the card is the peak card that you want, right, for that player? For any baseball player. Yeah. So it's. I'm going. If I was going for Ohtani, I'm going for even higher upside. Hard to believe. If I could get it for 5 mil and Ohtani does Ohtani things, I could see that. Flipping it for another couple extra million. Yeah, but that's a risk. Right. But I would just be personally comfortable spending 5 million parking my cash on Aaron Judge as a Yankees legend down the line and that specific card itself as well. So Judge, for me. Yeah, no, I. I think for me it's. It's pretty easy. Although that Ohtani card is massive. That would be like, so nice. Not that the Bowman Chrome Aaron Judge wouldn't be a museum piece, but that Ohtani super fracture would be. It would be like the Black luca. One of one. Sure. You know, kind of. It's the tops chrome og But I, I think you have. The Aaron Judge is the best card that Aaron Judge could possibly have, whereas Ohtani, that might be his seventh best or eighth best card. But that's the inflation value. If they're apples to apples in terms of price, let's just say comp. That 5 million. Right. I think the value is in the Bowman Chrome Aaron Judge. Right. Like. Like it's just there. It's like the Ohtani would be emotional. It would be an emotional purchase. Yep. But honestly, I could see that going for 10 million too, so. Right. And that's the thing. It's like, like, let's just say it was a $10 million card, but it closed that five. Yeah. And then Ohtani does something stupid and then it goes for 10, like six months later. That's what it could happen. Whereas the Aaron Judge. Maybe it can, maybe it can't. That's. That's the. It's a hot potato. Yes, it's a hot potato. Depends what you want to do with that card. I think ultimately. Okay, yeah, yeah, I'm going with the Bowman Chrome. Yeah. Nice Judge sweep. Okay, last one. Also, Tanya, I thought mine would be the high end card, but you outdid me because I chose the 2018 Bowman Chrome Blue Refractor autograph card. BGS 9.5 is the one DC was talking about last week that he had but then sold. Is it pitching or Batting. That's batting, right? Pitching. Oh, it's the pitching. So the original Bowman set. Yes. So he sold that early hindsight 20 20. But he made a great point, you know, when he sold at the time, he did something with the money to, to reinvest. So it wasn't a loss. But if he did hold, he could have made 132 grand from that sale recently. That's what it's going for. Would you. If you had held sold it for that much, would you have traded it for a card like the 2019 Kaboom Gold out of 10 of Tom Brady in a PSA 9? No, I'm, I'm keeping, I'm keeping the Ohtani ohtani number to 150. I'm keeping the Ohtani. Yeah. Like, I get it. Like, kabooms are cool, but you're talking. Yeah, I get it. Gold kabooms are, are grails too. I think Jeff Wilson just bought a different gold kaboom. Yeah. But yeah, I, I, the Bowman Chrome, man. Like, that Ohtani is what we were talking about with Aaron Judge. That is the best card. Like either the Bowman. I would, I would still say it's number one Bowman and then Bowman Chrome still. It's always been that way. And I still think, and I think Bowman Chrome has caught up. The batting image has caught up immensely. But I still think the pitching one, whether it's. I know from a ripping standpoint, I would say it's easier to pull the Bowman Chrome even though they're 150. I could be totally wrong. It's just paper product. And Bowman, to get any chrome auto in that one auto hobby box that you get is just an absolute nightmare. So I don't know if that is the reason why that outsells or that because it's the flagship. It was the first Bowman release of Shohei Ohtani and that's like his first, first release because Bowman Chrome was released in the summer. So that's. I still think that is the grail and you need to stick with the grails. And like I said, Tom Brady has other grails that are like, better than the gold kabooms. Right. So. Right. For me, it's like, that's what I'm comping it as. Yeah. Like, the contenders for Tom Brady would be up there number one, probably for a lot of people. Bowman Chrome refractor as well. But yes, this is easy because for the exact same reasons like you just mentioned with your pick one, I'm going with the Otani Blue refractor and I love blue refractors. Another bias of mine. One of my favorite people. People pay real, real premiums for golden refractors or gold and blues and refractors and the true colors. Yeah, for sure. For sure. All right. Thanks guys for listening for tuning in to another episode of Cards to the Moon. We'll have a brand new one for you next week. Talk to you then. Bye. Hey, thanks for listening to Cards to the Moon. We'd really appreciate you subscribing to our podcast. Subscribe wherever you listen to your podcasts and you can also connect with each of us on Instagram @5Card Guys. Or you can follow Hyung at Integrity Sportscards or John at Tradeyouces. You can also check us out@5CardGuys.com thanks again and hope to connect soon.