Debating Impact Of Card Values When Athletes Reach Milestones (Ovechkin's 895th goal, Trout's 400th Home Run?, Ohtani's Third MVP?); Will MJ And Kobe Dual Logoman Autograph Card Sell For $8M?

You're listening to Cards to the Moon, a podcast about trading cards from both a collector and investor perspective. We hope you'll stick around for the ride as we take a deep dive into the state of the hobby, share some hot takes, hopefully some useful advice and fun stories along the way. Hey guys, welcome back to Cards to the Moon. This is episode 283, and my name is Clark from 5cardguys.com, and you can also find me at 5cardguys on Instagram, Facebook, and on YouTube. Co-hosting with me as usual is Hyung, who's back. He's Integrity Sports Cards. And John, we had to kind of mess around with the schedule a bit today, so he won't be able to join us, but hopefully he'll be back next week. All right, off the top today, there is a monster, monster card going up for auction at Heritage Auctions, and it's the dual Logoman autograph card of Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant. And one of the Logoman patches is the 50th anniversary gold Logoman patch, all right? So I know whenever a huge card goes up for auction, we always try to guess what it'll go for, and we're usually off by millions, because it's hard to gauge in that high-end area of sports cards. But for some additional context, before we get into what we think it'll go for, it's been reported that high-end collector Shine 150 previously offered the owner of this card $8 million back in 2022, which is during the hobby hype, right? So actually, instead of guessing the exact number, because we could be way off, my question is, do you think the owner of the card should have sold to Shine back in 2022, or do you think putting it up on the auction block right now is the right move? What do you think? Oh, man, the right answer, I think everybody would say is that he should have sold. But after doing a little bit of research kind of into the card, it might go over $8 million. As crazy as that sounds. That is crazy. It's because we're not in the typical card market. We can't compare this stuff to regular card market trends, because there are so many different things at play that if we use our hobby logic, it's worthless. There's no point. So one, I think just naturally, we want to say that that $8 million was probably high, and it might be a $5 million card. After doing research, I think it's closer to like somebody would pay that $8 to $10 million marker. It's insane. That's nuts. I mean, I think it's crazy, right? I think most people will think it's crazy. But the reason why I bring it up is, is it impossible? No, I don't think it's impossible. Yes. You know, just because of like what the market is doing now, I think John mentioned it in our chat. The card market is, especially in the high-end markets, there's no explanation of why things are going for what they're going for right now. We're talking about terrorists, we're talking about economic instability, and yet Paul Skeen's one of one MLV debut has sold for $1.1 million. And that's the other factor too. Remember, we talked about it in a previous episode. Corporations and big companies with deep pockets, more than individuals of course, are getting into this game. Maybe they use this card as a marketing thing, right? So that's in the realm of possibility. But at the same time, I think this Dual Logo Man is more of a collector's item. Do you know what I mean? It's not like the Paul Skeens, which got so much publicity. And I can see why Dick's Sporting Goods, which is just to keep it in the state of Pennsylvania, would have gone for it. So that makes sense. But $8 million is a huge number. I don't know if I'll top that. It's huge. And you could see this, if you look at this as a 50-year market, there's a bunch of corrections to be had. So it's like, yes, is it overpriced? Probably. Will somebody pay for it? Probably. And that's my whole point is it becomes a massive supply-demand race. And any marketplace does. And that's why the fundamentals of investing is supply-demand at the end of the day. Because if you go outside of that context, you're basically buying into an inflated value regardless. Right? And like you said, as people enter the marketplace, people that have never been in this space before, but they're looking to park $1 million, $2 million, $5 million, that's a regular thing to do at that kind of stage. It's not unheard of or ridiculous, nor is buying a piece of art ridiculous to players in that game. Of course, to the average person, they're saying, I could paint that. But that has nothing to do with the fundamentals of value and why things are sought after. So for me, it being Kobe and MJ, something that's irreplaceable, something that's a 101, and probably the most, I would say one of the most sought after cards. Because Shine has like the triple Logo Man. He has a PSA 10 of 0405, non-auto. And that's in the millions, like a couple million, whatever that's valued at. And a lot of the Logo Man, I know when Drake was ripping that 2022, that Logo Man, triple Logo Man sold for $2.4. I'd rather have Shine's Logo Man than the 2022 version. But then it still sold for $2.4. Now if that person were to take that card and try to sell it for more than $2.4, will he be successful? Maybe not. But over a 50-year marketplace, it's going to be all over the map. That's the thing. It's so subjective at that point. And there's only one. And that's the game that, it's different than a Super Fractor. If I told you that Jason Dominguez's Super Fractor was pulled, it's like, well, there's like 20 of them. You know? Like 20 other 101 cards. Yeah. Super Fractors of Jason Dominguez of not a legend or a Hall of Famer, right? We're talking MJ Kobe, dual Logo Man, auto. On-card auto, yeah. Yeah. So floor price, I would say $5 million. Absolute floor price. Reasonable price, $8 to $10. Ridiculous price, $10 plus. That's where I see it. Wow. Okay. Okay. I like that. I like those bold predictions. Here's my bold prediction. I think it's going to go for $5 million and I think Shine's going to buy it. I think he's going to get the discount that he wanted for it. See, if you have money, you know that Shine's a buyer. So I'm testing that $5 to $8 million. You know what I mean? Because he wants that card and it's perfect for his collection. Like tease the guy that we're talking about. But there's probably 20 of him across the world that are thinking the same thing. True. Maybe more. We'll see. Now my curiosity is really piqued. So yeah, we'll see how much it goes for and who, I don't know, if it's not Shine, I don't know if we'll find out who the owner is. If it's Shine, he'll probably put it on his Instagram so we'll know, but yeah, we'll definitely see soon enough. All right. Let's move on to hobby headlines. All right. Since we last recorded together, it's been a while. We're just sitting off the air. It's been a couple of weeks, especially you've been back from Arizona for a week now. Do you want to kind of quickly update how that went for you? Yeah, I was down in Scottsdale. You know, it was the tail end of spring training. So we decided to shoot our other podcast, Conversations, season two. So we got a bunch of guests there. So we hammered that down. It was awesome. Just getting out of kind of like the cold weather here and going to Scottsdale. I've lived in Scottsdale for two years. So it's a place that I'm familiar with. I have a lot of connects there. So it was awesome. No golfing, which is unfortunate, but I mean, it's still, you know, 30 plus degrees, at least Celsius there. So like 90 plus there. So it was hot, but a successful trip. Very excited. If you are into baseball, I think it's a great podcast that we're doing with insight from, you know, MLB players, ex MLB players, people who are part of baseball that love the game and it gives direct insight. So we're probably releasing that within the next week or so, at least the first episode. And it'll be eight consecutive weeks. So yeah, just giving a little marketing plug for the podcast. Oh, it's awesome. And, you know, I know who the upcoming guests will be on the second season of conversations with Hyung Cho. And we actually plugged it while you're in Arizona. So we'll put the link of the podcast again in the show notes below. But yeah, looking forward to that. And like Hyung said, if you're into baseball, this podcast is a must listen. All right. I'm going to go from baseball to hockey because, you know, since we last recorded together, as I was saying before, a major record in hockey was broken. And that, of course, was the NHL total goal scoring record of 894 set by Wayne Gretzky. Now the new record holder is Alexander Ovechkin, who scored goal 895 this past Sunday. From a hobby standpoint, we've seen his rookie card values, especially his young guns and the future watch autos, increase in price during the chase for 895 as expected. But also as expected, as you know, as the hype simmered down, the prices have already begun to plateau. And some of the latest sales, you'll see that it shows it's trending downward again, right? And even before he broke the record. So the hype was really, it was unreal leading up to the record that he set. So I'll give you some numbers to provide more context. His future watch autograph card, PSA 10, sold March 2nd for $15,000. On March 31st, just a month later, it went for $11,000. A BGS 9.5 10 auto of the same card sold for $10,500 in early March. And in early April, a month later again, sold for $5,600. So that was a bigger drop for the BGS card. One more, his young guns PSA 10. The perfect time to sell this year would have been mid-January when it went for almost $6,000 US. The last one sold for just under $5,000 a week ago. So less volatility there, but still a $1,000 drop. In any case, I want to go over other cards where there might be some hype this year because there's some kind of milestone that can be reached. And then I want to discuss whether it's worth making a move to pick up their card now and sell later or not. But before we do that, Hyang, back to OV specifically, what would you do if you were looking to pick up an Ovechkin card now? And what would you do if you were looking to sell your OV card if you had one? Oh man, I think these are tricky because we talk about Sidney Crosby as well, guys that get overshadowed in that era, which is the same era as technically LeBron. So there should be a massive hype around these, you know, the Ovechkin, the Crosbys, especially because future watch autos as well as the young guns weren't as mass produced as today's market. But obviously, modern cards become, you know, front center stage with our hobby and these kind of get put on the back burner unless there are massive milestones like Ovechkin's record, breaking Gretzky's record, which is huge. And I think going back to your question, the hype obviously is the sell period. Even before that, we've witnessed multiple times of crazy milestones or big news updates. And this all stemmed from the last dance back in, you know, 2020 when that came out because that started immediately triggering habits and emotions to buyers, right? And I think people use that as one of the fundamentals to decide whether or not something was a good buy or sell. And the timing of the market obviously is the trickiest part because you would think that when he does break the record, you would want to sell at that point. So be ready. So you would be purchasing these things, you know, maybe a year in advance, maybe more, maybe less, but in regards, definitely you don't want to buy at the height because we've seen it over and over again that any marketing like the news, people react to it and then they say, wow, this is a crazy record. Will it ever be broke? I need to invest in Ovechkin card now. That's the normal habit of human, I guess, consumption. And I think that's what you have to kind of avoid. You have to be the one, one step ahead saying, okay, you know, it was a sell period during that time and even earlier, I would say even before records are breaking because people are anticipating that record breaking and that's when you have more buyers. But in reality, you know, but when they do break the record, it goes in the opposite direction because it was overinflated in the first place, right? So if you're into that game and you like that, I personally don't like it. I've done that in the past and I've learned, you know, through this and this is why I'm kind of sharing it. It's like it's not as hyped up unless it's something massive because if they were already on trajectory to do something ridiculous, the hype should already be there, right? So with all that said though, I still think hockey in that era, Crosby's, the Ovechkin's are super undervalued because Ovechkin is a top 10 all-time great and I think in the long term, there's extreme value. So if you're looking at it at a bigger lens or a bigger scale, then I think Ovechkin is a buy. If we're looking at it in a short term, yes, absolutely. You're going to probably lose if you bought at the peak. If you hold long term, I think you'll be fine. Yeah, I like that. You know, just kind of looking at the timeline, that's important, right? But yeah, to your point, like this is the mistake I made with Aaron Judge. Remember when I had the refractor rookie auto 2016, 2013, right? Yeah. 2013, yeah. And it's almost counterintuitive that you want to hold until the record's broken. You know, and that's, I mean, that's not counterintuitive. That is the normal intuition. The counterintuitive is selling before the record is broken. And that's what I should have done. It's also tricky if you want to put up an auction, which I did ultimately with Golden, you got to submit it beforehand. So like you got to know when the auction ends, right? So you can't say, I want to sell that for March, but then that means you had to have submitted in January or February and have that kind of foresight. So, you know, long story short, when I sold my Aaron Judge, I still made a profit out of it, but I could have gotten a lot more if I submitted even a month earlier, right before he was going to break the record. Because by the time it sold, he already broke the 60 plus home run or the whatever the New York Yankees record was. 62, yeah. Right? And then it was like even a few weeks later after that record, but then things simmer down really quickly once the record's broken. And I think those milestones are important for someone's career, but that's the thing. It doesn't establish their career because you're still like, when's the last time you talked about 62 home runs with Judge? It's been a while. Yeah. It's, yeah, you kind of forget about it and then you zoom out and then after Judge's career, like holy crap, like this guy, this guy is Nintendo numbers, right? Which by the way, just throwing it out there, I still think Aaron Judge is super undervalued. I just, there's some cards of Aaron Judge that it doesn't make sense and it's, I think it's a buy. Obviously there are cards that are super inflated because of the supply demand and those are the first liquid cards. I'm just throwing it out there. The things that Aaron Judge is doing is ridiculous and you have to like the odds against it. He's not a 5'9 body, he's a 6'7 body, 225 plus pounds, probably 10% body fat. To me, in your 30s, that's a sustainable body. You know what I mean? That's someone who takes care of his body. So for me, he could play well and especially with technology kind of increasing, you just never know how that's going to implement in sports. Even LeBron James, he's playing Ovechkin, he's 40 years old. Probably his last season, but at the end of the day, that's what we're talking about here is longevity of somebody's career and to me, that's what I'm investing in and what Judge is doing is ridiculous. I agree. Sorry to go off a tangent there. No, you know what? I was going to mention that because he's one of those cases where the hype was unreal during that chase for himself with the 60 plus homers and then things died down, but the baseline has also increased because people are beginning to see what you're saying that Aaron Judge is a very special player and he plays for the Yankees and all these other factors are coming to play. People are beginning to notice slowly that Aaron Judge can be this amazing player over his career and I think that's why. He's been on my watch list and it's not trending downwards. It's really creeping up again. People are beginning to notice. That's what I wanted to say and if you want to pull the trigger, you might want to look into Aaron Judge cards again now. So, Heung and I, we both kind of went off on a tangent there about Aaron Judge. I do feel that there are similarities though because it's in that with Ovechkin, it's in that period where we're talking about all-time greats here, right? Same. Yeah, exactly. It could be a good time, just going back to the Ovi question and putting a bow on it. I think if you plan to hold for the long term, I think it'll be totally worth it because prices are coming down for his main rookie cards and he's already established his career. Even more so than Aaron Judge at this point. So I think Ovechkin is a good buy and he might go down even more in the offseason. That might be the time to pick up a nice Ovechkin card. And I think that will happen because then you have to take in seasonal factors too. So those are things that I would ask myself if I'm in the market for Ovechkin is, do I believe in him long term? Do I believe in this pricing long term? And then from a short term perspective, it's like when is the right time to buy this? What's my target price? And then kind of look at it as a kind of like a seasonal way of, OK, we know that hockey is going to kind of die down, right? And then Ovi's contract ends next year and he most likely won't sign. So I'm guessing he's retired after next year. So it's like those are factors that I'm like, OK, will the hype continue through the offseason? Will it die down and then pick up again and then die down after he retires? If you're in long term, that's all you should be concerned about is when is the cheapest price. And then at that point, your long term hold, you know, just kind of go hold it, hold it for there and enjoy the ride. But like I said, Crosby is super undervalued, Ovechkin is super undervalued, Aaron Judge is super undervalued. There's a lot of undervalued guys for what they've done in their career. And we're so overshadowed by modern cards that we and we've been seeing this scarce rare cards of legacy players, I think, is the way to go in this hobby long term. And yeah, I think whoever is in long term with Ovi is going to do OK in the long run. Yep, it makes me wonder, as you were talking about him not signing after next year when his contract is up, if he's close to a thousand goals, does he stay on two more seasons, two and a half more seasons? You know what I mean? Physically, I think he could do it. Yeah. Forty plus goals this year in age 39. Yeah. It's crazy. So. But yeah, you got to you got to be worried about the body of it. I mean, it I'm more confident in Judge's era than kind of like that Crosby Ovechkin LeBron era, more so just because technology like Judge is like in his younger 30s now. So he has another 10 years of technology that could potentially help him or, you know, more data that allows him to get more information to be able to take care of his body better within the next 10 years. So I like that going for Judge over that, over the, you know, previous generation. I don't even know what they're called. I guess Ovechkin is same as like he's born in 1985. I was born in 1982. So I would say that's kind of like the same era. We're learning that, wow, like our bodies really age after, you know, 35, really quick. Right. So. No, it's yeah. I mean, again, to your point with Ovechkin and all those guys, there's already a lot of wear and tear. Like you can't take that back. You know what I mean? So. And that era, you know, that the wear and tear is the internet didn't exist. We did things differently. We were out, you know, doing things that we shouldn't have been doing, not taking care of our bodies, but nobody knows about it only through our stories. I mean here. Yeah. There's some, there's some hints there with Ovechkin. He grabs a beer after a nice celebration, you know? And now these young guys, they won't do that, right? They won't. No. Exactly. Anyway. Before we end off the Hobby Headlines segment, I just want to go over some milestone, potential milestones that could be reached this year. And you tell me if you're like, this is a good play. I might pick up their card and maybe sell while the hype is getting closer to that milestone being reached by said player. Okay. So first Mike Trout. I know he's hot button because it's all about his health. So far, knock on wood, everything's going well, three homers already, but he's getting close to the 400 home run mark. Is that a big deal? 400 home run mark milestone? And do you think that'll have any impact on card values as he approaches that 400 number? For me, 400 is not a significant number. It's a good number. It's, I mean, you're, you're there, but 500 is that number. 500 is the, is the number where I would be like, okay, that's a significant milestone. 400 is a milestone. Don't get me wrong. I would not buy Trout because he hit 400. Fair. Right. The thing with Trout that it's not necessarily worries me, I'm, I'm, I'm just seeing based on his numbers, it, he's either going to, this is how his career ends or it picks up. I'm looking to see more positive signs in stuff like his batting average. Like he's a 300 career hitter. You look at people's careers and when they peak and when they die down and when they retire, it's eerily similar to Trout's career stats where it's like, I could see Trout retiring in the next two years based on his stats. Whether or not that's the case, I've seen players that go through that struggle with health injuries. They can't get in the groove and then they have a stupid season and then they're back on track. But a lot of people don't get there. And that's the question I have based on his career statistic numbers. It's almost like a mountain peak. He's a 19 year old kid. You know, he had 220 his first year, whatever it is, a lot of learning lessons. He started really figuring out his second year, pitchers started making adjustments. He made adjustments. And then he started peaking within that, you know, 10 year span of his career. And then you look at the last four or five years, you're like, Oh, this looks exactly like how a career ends up ending. Like it's like that mountain peak and then the fall. Right? And that's my only concern with Mike Trout. But he's done so much already within his peak career that he's still considered one of the greatest modern baseball players in our time, in our generation. And there's going to be a price point where I'm like, it's worth it. Because we've all seen Trout's prices go bonkers. How much he's hyped and it's almost like the Acuna. Like when I got back into the hobby after, you know, 20 something years, like there's so much hype on Acuna. And then after that hype dies down, you're like, there has to be a price point where it's a buy now. Right? It's like, I want to buy. And that's kind of where I sit with Trout. I don't mind taking a chance with him, but I don't think 400 is that number. If 500 is the number, then we're talking, okay, Hall of Fame, Hall of Fame numbers, 500 gets you in. I think he's a Hall of Famer regardless of his career ends. But this will kind of like solidify. I want to see him hit 500. So I'm still bullish on Trout. Yeah, I think it's definitely possible with Trout. And of course, health is always a factor. And I was looking up Miguel Cabrera as you were talking, just to see how his career kind of panned out. And Trout is 33 now. When Miguel Cabrera won his third MVP, he was 29, 30. Okay, so things start to kind of die down a little bit. At age 33, Miguel Cabrera hit 38 home runs, 108 RBIs. So he was still a monster. Then it kind of fell off. That's where you see the kind of like retraction. Age 34, he hit 16 home runs, then three, because he was injured, 12, 10, 15, and then five and four. So his last good year was his age 33 year. I would categorize all those guys, kind of younger generation than me, but still in our era. And this is the difference I see in sports these days, because of the internet, I would say, or our communication tools. I just think that we never took care of ourselves as much as we should have, because of the lack of information. So in saying that, someone like I see Miguel Cabrera, what you just said, that's very normal for us to see a career like that. And then that's what we're talking about. And then the next few years, it dies down. Albert Pujols, same way. His years before he went to St. Louis, or sorry, before he went to Anaheim, his numbers were ridiculous. But as he hits that age where his body isn't as nice to him, and this is where I think our generation kind of doesn't do a good job, is after you find success, you become this veteran, this vet. The reason why you were a superstar in the first place is, I'm telling you, the countless hours that you train, that you condition your body to prepare for the following season. But after that Miggy, 33 years old, you just win MVP, you just hit whatever you did, you're probably going to Mexico. probably going on a cruise somewhere to kind of just chill. You've been in the big leagues for 13 plus years or whatever it is, and you're just on cruise control. You've made hundreds of millions of dollars. You're just like, life is great. But this is where the difference between the Aaron Judge and the Pujols and the Cabrera. I think there's enough technology and I don't see Judge, you know, based on what I see today with the media, everything. There's standards now on these athletes. You know, even Vegas is in on sports way more than it used to 20 years ago. So I think from just the development standpoint from that age 30 to 40, you're going to see higher performers than you ever did 10 years ago, 20 years ago. Sure. Right. Just because of what what I've talked about. So that's why someone like Aaron Judge becomes a lot more interesting to me than a Mike Trout or someone who's in that era. And I know that's very specific. And obviously, there's there's a lot of variables to that. But that's kind of what I've I've seen. But I would argue and we'll go on to the next player. But Mike Trout is 33. Aaron Judge is 32. So they're pretty much the same age. But Mike Trout has been in the league much longer than Aaron Judge. Right. So well, let me ask you a question really quick. You look at the bodies. Yeah. And you say, okay, who's going to perform in the next five years trout or judge? I don't like either of their bodies. But you don't like judges body. He's too like, that was my primary concern back then. Like he got injured because he is so big. He's so powerful. He remember just that one swing he missed that on that one pitch he missed he got an oblique injury. You know, and I think what I would argue now is that what you're just saying, like, I'm sure he's taking care of his body much more because he's learning from it. Right. So I don't, I'm not as scared as I was three, four years ago. Let's just say that. So, but if I'm going to choose, I'm going to choose Aaron Judge, because he is a seems sturdier. Trout is more stocky. I mean, yeah, you know, he has a lot of injury issues already. So yeah, I would choose judge over trout for sure. But yeah, that was just a question. I would choose judge too. Because what worries me is is the body. That's what if you look at every big league career, like even Mickey Cabrera pools, you tell me pool host number is not a direct correlation with his physical ability from the age 33 to 40. It was definitely a physical, like he played like he was 50. That's why everybody said, like, you know, this guy's 55 years old, or whatever he is, like, that's, that's what you get, right? In that era, at least in that era. Yeah. But trout is in the same era as judge now, right? Like the technology is available to him. So I'm a little bit more bullish on trout, at least. I feel like he can hit the 500 home run mark. And then then we'll see what happens after. Right? That's a big milestone. Yeah. Yeah. So yeah, I like I agree with you on that too. 400. It's not going to be a big deal in comparison to the 500 home run marker, obviously. All right. show you a tiny the milestone that he could reach. I mean, he could reach a lot more milestones. That's just the way he's going. But he could win his third straight MVP. And that's not out of the question. So if that happens, if he has another MVP season three in a row, what do you think they'll do to his card values? I mean, it's already up. But what do you think I'll do from now till then? Man, this is it's like Russian roulette. I'm telling you, it's a matter of when it stops. Yeah. And that's what worries about. It's not that he will stop anytime soon, because he's proven over and over again, this guy is getting better and better and better. But with baseball, you just never know. And we've, we've seen both, obviously, because you know, you we've had opportunities to invest in Otani and we've missed at that floor pricing, but then our excuses were always injury, or is he going to sustain it? And then he has what if he's a five time MVP, in his career? Right? So that's crazy. Yeah, yeah, it's crazy. And I want to see him reach his third MVP before he's 30. I think you're you're now talking about he's 30 now. So yeah, so he has to so if he wins MVP this year, it's three MVP by the time he's 30. Yes. And four of those years were in Japan, right, which is which is insane in itself, or three years, whatever it is. I still think he's way overpriced, but he wins another MVP. I'm telling you even his base cards like that, maybe that's the play where you go, you know, cheaper cards that are undervalued that is bringing the rest. Of course, the rare cards are going to be a massive, you know, supply demand monster that holds value. And that's the whole point of a marketplace. It's buyers versus sellers, buyers versus availability of what's available supply. So for me, it's if Otani is doing Otani things in front of, you know, millions and millions and millions of people in Japan and in the world. And there's only a 25 of his orange refractor and Bowman. To me, that is almost like a bulletproof for holding value like the or it wouldn't it wouldn't tank unless something substantial affects his career because of the supply demand. So with that said, I think there's a lot of opportunity still on Otani as crazy as that sounds. I think his paper tops update tops series one, number card number 700. Like there's parallels paper parallels that are still cheap, in my opinion. But some of the more expensive stuff is just ridiculous. Like, it's way like we we seen a red ink. And we talked about this on the pod in previous years, because the question was, would you rather have that white box, you know, one on one or a red ink auto. And then this is what we're talking about. You've seen both kind of go in different directions. But PSA eight, red ink, or something like that. So for like, a PSA, six, six. Yeah. So 13, 13k. And you know what the that owner is going to do, he's probably gonna crack it out. Do authentic auto 10 on the auto. If the auto is good. I didn't take a close look, but it has a good chance. And that 13k might be justifiable at that point, right? So um, yeah, the market's crazy. It's it depends on your risk appetite. The higher it goes, the more you're in for it in terms of direct cash. So and some people don't mind that, like, I don't mind dumping more cash than I would have, like, let's just say three years ago on something that I'm long term, because whether I cashed out on some other card and created that form of money, I'm not necessarily too concerned about the money. Of course, we want to do trades and profits and then dump it into cards. And then you're in for a $20,000 card for 3000. And it's house money from there. But some somebody like Otani, if the right card comes into play, I wouldn't mind going long term on that. Because I think the true value is the massive massive cards long term. But the problem is that the demand is so high right now because of what Otani is doing. Yeah, that and that's why I then I go back and I compare Otani and judge. I'm like, man, based on prices, I'd rather go judge. Yeah, and I agree. And but the thing is, the longer you wait, and the trends are still it's not coming down. But I agree with you, when is the question, you know, when it will, you know, stop right now, Otani, but the market at some point, there is a limit, because it'll just be so much. But while you're waiting, you know what also is increasing? FOMO level, like the FOMO level is on extreme high right now, you know, and to the point where I was, I was looking at that PSA 6 red ink, rookie auto and I'm like, maybe I'll just get it. I just want a nice rookie red ink. Would you? Of course, but I didn't want to pay 13k for it. You know what I mean? So that for me, I don't have that risk appetite. 13k for PSA 6 red ink, because at the same time, you don't know what even if you want to go to BGS and hopefully for a better grade. It's hard to say why I got a PSA 6 as well. It might be something that you can't see in the photo, right? 100% all those factors too risky, but that's where I'm at with the Shohei Otani rookie cards. I got to look for really low grades of his, his key rookie cards. If I want to, you know, if I, with the cash I have now, that's, that's what I can afford, but yeah. All right. One more baseball before we've kind of pivot to two other players from a different sport, and we'll go through these more quickly. Clayton Kershaw. I know how we feel about pitchers, but Clayton Kershaw is one of the three along with what Scherzer and Verlander that, that have cemented their legacy, but he is approaching 3000 career strikeouts. He's only 32 away. He's on the IL, I believe right now. So when he does come back, I believe the season it's well within reach 3000 career strikeouts. What do you think? So Kershaw is someone that I always said, you know, if he's healthy, I like him better than Verlander almost as a career, but that was, that was the issue is his health, right? You know, being able to pitch innings and his numbers are kind of showing that too, is like last year he was injured over the last four or five years, he's logged less than 150 innings as a starter, which he's never done in his career pre COVID. So to me, it's like, he's, he's pitched way less in the last five years. So we'll, we'll say post COVID versus pre COVID. His numbers are just as good. The problem is his health. So for, for, for Kershaw, I think 3000 strikeouts is a massive milestone just regardless. And just to put into perspective, remember, Nolan Ryan's part of the 5000 K club, just to put into perspective. So Kershaw is now approaching, you know, 35 years old. Um, or sorry, 36, it would be right. 36. Yeah. 37. So he would definitely hit that 30, 3000 strikeout market mark. But in terms of like pitching career and card value, I think, he's definitely a buying opportunity, but I don't think that milestone is necessarily going to bump him up of any sort. I think hall of fame when he does, I think that's probably the next bump you'll see or retirement hall of fame. We realize how good Kershaw's career was. But yeah, like I said, it's it's the market is dictated on current, current kind of impact. So all these players we talked about, they were legends when we were kind of like, I'm not growing up, but like we've watched for the last 15 years. Sure. And these guys were the goats. But then they're not the goats today. People rather, you know, by Victor women, Yama, Fernando Tatis, you know, Vlad Guerrero, Juan Soto, Acuna, right? Yeah. Yeah. I agree. I think the his prices right now the 3000 career strikeouts are baked in. I think that's already set. It definitely has been creeping up in terms of value, because when I saw his BGS nine, five, 10 base first Bowman auto, it was that three to 500 bucks. I'm like, I don't want to spend that much. But now it's like 2k or so, you know, I mean, like, it's gone up steadily. But I think the 3000 career strikeouts are baked in. And I agree with you 100%. The Hall of Fame around that time is probably when you'll see the next significant bump, if any. All right, two more. Novak Djokovic. I know we don't talk tennis, maybe maybe there's an easy answer because tennis cards, you know, they're they've been hot for a little bit. And now definitely cooled off. He could win his 25th major at any time just needs to win one more. He's at 24. And that will, I mean, he already has a solid career. But do you think a 25th major is a significant milestone that will impact card values for him? I don't know tennis? Well, but I would I would assume that it's very similar to what we're talking about here. So I would say that long term, there's value in it. But I don't think these milestones will necessarily, or at least significantly bump. Maybe in one like 10 years from now, we look back and we see the trends, we see that slow, kind of like bump. Oh, when he had his 25th major, then it's like, you see a little bump and then but you don't see it right now. And because of tennis and the popularity of collectibles in the tennis marketplace, I don't think we're gonna see anything significant, nor if he did, would I be a buyer? No, that's the thing. It's like I and maybe I'm, like, I'm biased because I collect baseball, and I would never collect tennis for the sake of collecting it because somebody hit a milestone, right? Because what I learned, at least from my collecting habits is if I'm not personally, like emotionally invested with it, I will sell it. Sure. You know what I mean? So I've noticed that with whether it's f1, whether it's, you know, Marvel, whether it's Pokemon, I don't have that tie where I'm just like, this is worth holding, or I cherish this card. And I see that as in tennis as well. Like I just don't. And this is super biased. So I apologize to the tennis fan. is because, and vice versa, because they might say the same thing with baseball. It's like, well, it's just a flip for me, right? So yeah, I don't see any milestone in tennis necessarily taking over unless something absolutely like newsworthy, front page of all sports happens. Sure, I think with Jokovic in particular, I think when he retires, there might be a bump, but yeah, I'm aligned with you in terms of his 25th major. I don't think it'll be a big deal in terms of card impact values. All right, last one. It's kind of similar to Otani's three straight MVPs, but Patrick Mahomes, if he goes three in a row, Super Bowl, three-peat, what do you think that'll do to his card values? Oh man, now here, this is a little different because I feel like Patrick Mahomes and football would be kind of like what we're talking about on the other side, because you still have kind of like that young quarterback who is following in the footsteps of Tom Brady. I think everybody in that side of things is looking for the next Tom Brady. And they tried to force it out of Mahomes over the past few years, and then this is why there's so much volatility in football is because they're trying to make Mahomes into Brady. But then if it's not happening, they sell, which has been happening. So for me, if Mahomes wins a third Super Bowl, now we're talking, and you get that momentum. He's still young. Can he be that next Tom Brady? And I'll bring that back. It's like, you gotta remember, Tom Brady started peaking later on in his career. That's the difference, right? That's why Tom Brady's Tom Brady is because he got better and better and better. So Mahomes has to do that year after year to kind of expect those types of prices. So like I said, we've seen a dip in Mahomes in general, and we've always said Mahomes might be a good buying period over the last two years that we said, and we've seen kind of the opportunities it presents itself, because I think before, during that COVID-2022 hype, Mahomes was one of the chases. He was so overpriced. Him, Luka, I would even put Zion in that category, as crazy as that is, but those are the guys that people were looking for, and then you had kind of somewhat of a crash, but now more of a correction. So I like Mahomes more than all of the guys that you've mentioned, and I think a third Super Bowl will definitely impact his prices more so than the others you mentioned. Yeah, I'm all in on Mahomes. I'm so bullish on Mahomes. And you know, it's kind of like Otani. His high-end cards are still expensive, but I think there's room to play in his lower to mid-end cards at this point in his career. So yeah, I'm all in on Mahomes. I think if he wins the three straight Super Bowls, which is super hard to do, even going back-to-back is, I think, statistically really difficult, three people will be something special, and I think if that happens, Mahomes will be a big part of that. All right, there you go. So yeah, if you have any other players you want us to consider in terms of milestones that we missed, I'm sure we missed a ton, because sports is sports. A lot of things happen. Let us know. DM us at CardsToTheMoon on Instagram or at FiveCardGuys, and we'll be happy to look it over. All right, let's play a quick game of Over Under. All right, so for this segment, I usually give you a number and you tell me what the latest card sold for. The number today, the magic number is $25,000, okay? But the twist is each of these cards that I'm gonna mention are all Shouhei Otani, all right? Okay, so this is the Otani $25,000 edition of Over Under. All right, first one, the 2018 Shouhei Otani Tops Chrome Rookie Auto Base, the one that I had that I bought for 500 bucks, my biggest hobby mistake to date. The BGS 1010 of that card, did it sell for more or under, over or under 25,000? Wow, a base. Base, BGS 1010, not a black, but a pristine. No, I can't see it sell it for over 25. I would put that price between 20 and 25, though. Okay. A BGS 10. You're right, $20,000 last week. Yeah, I was wondering, you know, degrading, anything can happen with grading, especially with a BGS 10. And then I figured you might kind of bait me in, you know? All right, one for one next. 2024, this is in a Dodgers uniform, Tops Chrome Gilded Collection, a Super Fracture one of one, BGS 9.5. BGS 9.5, it's autoed? It is, it's a non-auto. A non-auto, wow. And Gilded, I like Gilded, it's beautiful. Well, Super Fracture, it's tough to tell the difference, but I'm gonna say under as well, because it's a non-auto, and it'd be crazy if it was over. The answer is 27,856. It's an over. Holy, that's crazy. That is crazy for a non-auto, but Super Fractures do crazy things too, right? One of ones, for sure. Okay, next one, 2018. Okay, Tops Chrome again, right? Like the first one, but it's a gold refractor. Rookie card. Non-auto? Autographed. Oh, okay. Gold refractor. PSA 9. Yeah. See, I could see this being over, because this makes more sense than the Gilded Super Fracture, to me, at least. If I'm spending 25 grand, I'm buying this Tops Chrome Gold Auto over the Gilded, so I'm gonna say over. Okay. You're not using your hobby logic brain. It's 23,182. Yeah. That's crazy. PSA 9. You know what I mean? Like, that's, shouldn't make that big a difference, but it is what it is. And the crazy thing with that, I remember when I was, just, because I always look at Otani markets, you know? I just go 2018 Otani autos, and then I'll sort from highest price and see where the buy nows are, and I remember it's like 13K. That card was 13K buy now, 14K buy now. I'm like, who would buy this for 13, 14K? This is insane, and we're talking 23 now. It's crazy. It is crazy. Next time we play this game, it might be 35,000 is the number that we talk about. All right, two more. 2018 Bowman Chrome Rookie Auto Blue Refractor, autographed, right, numbered to 150. BGS 9.5, 10 Auto. It's the batting stance. This has to be over. Because I would say, I would say this is the second most desired Otani card. I'll put the Topps Chrome either third or fourth, maybe fourth or fifth. Sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry, one sec. Okay, yeah, it is a batting auto, yes. Yeah, so that's, I would say, is pretty highly desired. I'm gonna say this has to be over. It is over 29,280, so that was the easy one, all right. And the last one, 2018 Bowman Chrome Orange Refractor, rookie card, numbered to 25, of course. It's a jersey number, 17 out of 25, non-auto, BGS 9.5. If the Gilded Superfractor sold 2024 in Dodger's uniform for 27, it'd be insane for this to sell less than that. I'm gonna go over on this as well. Guess what? It's over, but it's under the Gilded. 25,620. That's crazy, that's crazy. So with that said, the only thing I would not buy would probably be the Gilded. Yeah, I just feel like that's overpriced for, they're all overpriced, don't get me wrong. But in terms of. Are they? They're overpriced, they're overpriced. Yeah. They're underpriced. They're overpriced and underpriced, how about that? I don't even know what the Otani price is anymore. That's, yeah, that's. They're both. Yes, they're both at the same time. All right, that's our segment for Over Under today. Let's end off with our regular weekly segment we call Pick One. And as usual, do you wanna start things off for us? Yeah, I'm gonna make John proud and go hockey because just our conversations, I guess, with the whole OV record goal scoring kinda got me looking at future watch autos again. Yeah. And it's kinda mind-blowing because I feel like who is the next OV? Who's gonna remotely come close? There's not a lot of guys that I would say, okay, I would say maybe Austin Matthews and Leon Drysaddle, are probably two of the trajectory. They're both 27 years old and they're both on pace. I would say they would have to do this for the next 12 years as well, which is crazy, right? So, but nobody else would be on that trajectory. So what OV has done is pretty spectacular. And his future watch auto BGS9 recently sold for 4,150. So future watch auto BGS9, which is a tough grade. You know, it's number two, I believe 999, but there's not a lot of well-graded, I would say, pop counts of this, right? Just in general. So that sold for 4,150, a BGS9 Auto 10. Would you rather pay 4,150, so that sold April 9th, or would you spend $4,300, so pretty similar price, on the 2016 Austin Matthews Future Watch Auto, PSA 10? Oh, yeah. So PSA 10 Austin Matthews, 4,300 bucks, future watch auto, or the OV BGS9 at the same price, at 4,150. I'm gonna make this quick and simple. I think the BGS9 at 4,100 of Ovechkin is a steal. So I'm going for the value play. I think 4,600 is good for Matthews, cause it's been a lot higher, and it's come down drastically. And maybe it's because we're in the Toronto market too, everything's overpriced for any Maple Leafs player. So I like the 4,300 number as well for Austin Matthews, and actually he's on my watch list, cause you know, that's a hometown buys for sure. If I'm gonna get a Matthews card, it's cause I'm a Maple Leafs fan. But if I wanna hold one in the vault for a long time, give me the BGS9. And if it goes down any lower, if it does, crack it out, submit it to PSA. That's... No, that BGS9 had great sub grades by the way. Oh, there you go. It was a nine, nine, and nine and a half, nine and a half. So to me, it's a borderline min gem, but again, with grading guys, it could go any way. So it could be a PSA 6. So just throwing it out there. That's right. So what are you doing? Oh man, the right answer is OV. What? But if Austin Matthews scores like 70 goals in a season, I could see people kind of like getting excited. You can see Toronto Maple Leafs fans getting excited, yes. Yes, Toronto Maple Leafs. Whoever's paying 4,300 for this card right now is getting excited. Cause I could easily see that going to like that 10K marker. We've seen it with current players like Connor McDavid, you know, and more of the modern type players. Like I said, it's that lull period of Ovechkin, Crosby era, Lidstrom, like all those guys, they get no love. But these modern hockey players, I think there's going to be more volatility. I think the hype with OV just died down a bit. And as crazy as that sounds, this is almost like picking Wemby over, you know, like a LeBron or something like that, right? So it's kind of like the same scenario where the right answer is OV, but I'm still going to use hobby logic and go Austin Matthews. There you go. PSA, yeah. I could see that for a short midterm flip, for sure, Austin Matthews has more potential. All right, you said Wemby. So that's my pick one. Cause I've been looking at Wemby cards recently again, cause I've kind of forgot about him with the injury. And this is what happens. I'm like, oh, I wonder if his prices have gone down. So it's, you know, it's still up there, but I'm going back and forth with just Prism, his Prism rookie card, where he's in front of a curtain that we all made fun of, but now it's attractive all of a sudden. That card, the white Prism, okay. Number two, 175, PSA nine, right? Listed for 3000 right now. Or for 3000, would you buy the Topps Chrome Refractor Rookie Auto, where he's doing the prom pose and the refractor auto, I believe it's on card, but it's not numbered, but it's a refractor, PSA 10. It's not numbered, eh? Not the refractors, no. That's interesting. Yeah, not the silver refractor types, yeah. I'll throw that out there. I think it's, I hate when they non-numbered it, cause sometimes refractors, so the normal refractor auto for Topps Chrome would be 499. Right. Sometimes a refractor non-auto might be less than 499. Sure. Just put the damn number on them. You know what I mean? Especially if it's under, yeah. Yeah, if it's under, if it's over, but I don't see a refract, that they produce a thousand refractor autos, that means. Like, that seems a little high for the Topps Chrome 1B, right? But it is an auto. Here's the thing, autos are very interesting in basketball compared to baseball, compared to hockey. Yes, I was gonna say, 100%. And that's what kind of gets me. Autos never stuck in basketball as well as they do in baseball and other markets, and even hockey. And going back, Topps Chrome, first year back to basketball, but it's non-numbered. non-licensed, which I think hurts it a lot. White Prism's really nice, but then it's non-autoed. It's PSA 9. What's the peak on that price if Wenby does stupid stuff? Ah, man. And then what's the other one graded? PSA 9 for the White Prism, PSA 10 for the Topps Chrome Refractor. I'm going to PSA 10 auto. I just think the autos are undervalued and even though Wenby has a lot of autos, I think I did a total, I did a total count on the autos. I think it was similar to Steph Curry, his rookie year, as crazy as that sounds. So to me, I thought the autos were massively overproduced on Wenby's, but if you look at the Steph Curry rookie auto market, it's strong, right? Because the demand is still there. Now I could be wrong on the numbers. That's from quick glance, but I think the auto is the right play in this situation. My old me would have picked whatever the trend was. So basketball autos aren't that popular. Now autos are popular in the earlier years, but then in Prism, they kind of took a dump, right? And then certain sets, they're popular. Like Optic autos I love because they're on-card autos for the most part. And then Prism autos I hate because they're sticker autos for the most part. So it's this trend of back and forth, but I think for Victor Wenbinyama, I'd rather have an auto than a non-auto. So that would be my kicker. And because it's a PSA 10, I like the liquidity of it. I would get full value for that when the time is right, I'm gonna go Wenby auto. Yeah, I can't argue with you, but I keep going back and forth. And right now, if you ask me right now, if you're gonna, you have to buy one, I might go the white Prism. I can't believe I'm saying this. And it's for the reason what you already mentioned it. I don't get the basketball market in terms of valuing non-auto Prism cards, rookie cards over the autograph, right? So, and this is an on-card auto. So, if you ask me next week, I might go back to Topscoring Reflective to tell you the truth. But right now, the white Prism is kind of a color match with the black and white. You're not gonna get the black Prism because that's the one of one, right? So, I'm the only other color match and you know how I'm big into color match. It's gotta be the white Prism, but there's also white Wave and white Sparkle. So, if I think about it more, I might go back to Topscoring Reflective to tell you the truth. So, that's a hard one, but I'm slowly, it's one of those things where if you can't beat them, join them. I don't get the basketball market, the collector's crowd for basketball cards, but it just seems that, and Prism, you're not gonna see any more Prism rookie cards that are licensed soon enough once the license runs out. So, Victor Wambayama might be the last superstar with a legit Prism license rookie as well. So, you know, I'm gonna put this up on the poll when this episode comes out. We'll see what people say. And yeah, it'll be interesting. All right, thanks again for joining us for another week of Cards to the Moon. We'll see you guys on Friday for another brand new episode. Talk to you then, bye. Hey, thanks for listening to Cards to the Moon. We'd really appreciate you subscribing to our podcast wherever you listen to your podcasts. And you can also connect with each of us on Instagram at 5cardguys, or you can follow Hyung at Integrity Sports Cards, or John at TradeUatRecess. You can also check us out at 5cardguys.com. Thanks again, and hope to connect soon. Bye.