Discussing Major Announcements From Topps Industry Conference (Topps Regaining NBA/NFL Licenses; First Wemby Licensed Autograph Cards; Topps Chrome Syncing Parallels Finally; And More!)

You're listening to Cards to the Moon, a podcast about trading cards from both a collector and investor perspective. We hope you'll stick around for the ride as we take a deep dive into the state of the hobby, share some hot takes, hopefully some useful advice and fun stories along the way. Hey guys, welcome back to Cards to the Moon. This is episode 288. My name is Clark from 5cardguys.com and 5cardguys on Instagram and on YouTube and on Facebook. Co-hosting with me as usual is Hyung of Integrity Sports Cards and John, actually he's swamped with work today, so hopefully he'll be able to join us next week. Off the top, I want to talk about the new Bowman Red Rookie Redemption program that Topps announced recently. If you haven't heard about it already, essentially there's a select number of rookie cards in Bowman products and I believe it starts with this year's Bowman Baseball. It's releasing on May 7th. These number of rookie cards will have the red RC logo on some of the cards. We know what the RC logo is, very iconic, but these ones are in red. If you get one, starting in November, those cards can be redeemed for prizes. What are the prizes? If the player wins Rookie of the Year, you can redeem the card with the red RC logo by March of next year to get $100 fan cash, which you can spend on the Fanatics website to buy more cards or merch even probably. I think you can also use fan cash to buy interbreaks, probably something that they're also encouraging. You don't have to redeem the card because you can also hold on to it. If that player goes on to win an MVP or Cy Young in their career, you get $300 fan cash and it goes all the way up to $700 fan cash if they win three MVP or three Cy Young awards. At the top tier, you can get $1,000 fan cash if the player is inducted into the Hall of Fame. I got some thoughts on this, but Hyun, you go first. What do you think of this new redemption program? It looks to me, it's what we talked about before. I think personally, this is exactly the bridge into the digital world because now what you're doing is you're incorporating utility, some sort of utility at least. Well, one, I think when you're able to create a game within a game, I think you have culture. For instance, I'll give you an example. The reason why baseball players love baseball is because there are many, we're talking baseball players, the culture of baseball, why people play this game and teach this game and coach this game the rest of their life because there are games within the game that the regular fan doesn't know. That builds culture. In the same way, I see fanatics doing exactly what we talked about back when how is our NFTs going to be merged into a physical asset like sports cards. I feel like this is the actual process that they're building. Now, it really didn't exist, the technology, it is now available. So companies like fanatics, I feel like they're saying, okay, how do we now from a physical standpoint create utility within the physical card that eventually now we're able to use technology to make that process better, if that makes sense. So we're in the really early stages. That's what I see is exactly what fanatics is doing is to create utility. I think the utility, what they broke it down, I think it's cool in the sense that it brings collectability to a different level. There's more value than the marketplace, for instance. Just the marketplace. Let's just say buying and selling on eBay would be one value but now you have multiple value in terms of how you want to proceed to cash out on whatever rookie card, right? So I think it's good whether that structure, $1,000 for a Hall of Famer, it's like, come on, you got to bring it up there. It's like Hall of Famer is like ridiculous. You're talking about like you're not going to see that in 25, 30 years. So it's like you got to up the ante, right? And that will give more desire in terms of collectability, if that makes sense. Yeah, that makes sense to me and especially for a product like Bowman Baseball because we've talked about in the past. It's a hard rip. Yeah, it's tough. It's a paper product and you're looking for the Bowman Chroma, obviously, it's really hard to hit. I remember when Drew Jones, remember that was a chase one year and there was a bounty on it. It's like you can cash it in now or if he makes the Hall of Fame, then it'll be worth a lot, a million bucks. Yeah, it's like no one's waiting that long. No one's waiting that long and Drew Jones is, you know, he's still humming, I guess. Yeah, got to make the big leaks first. Right. Baseball's hard. It's a hard game. Very tough. Right? From the standpoint of, you know, I think it's a little gimmicky, but I understand why Fanatics is doing it to, like you said, an extra level of utility. And honestly, I know people are going to say, oh, a thousand bucks for a Hall of Fame. It's going to be, you know, a long time until you see that. But the way I see it is don't think about now. Think about 20 years down the line. You're going to be wondering, remember that 2025 Bowman baseball set? Oh, this guy actually had a red RC logo on their rookie card and he actually might make it. And, you know, we'll be like in, we'll be senior citizens by then. But you know, like if eBay still exists, I might like do a quick search and say, hey, maybe I can get a deal on this because, you know, Fanatics has grown to a certain company. I'm assuming that Fanatics will continue to grow. And then all of a sudden you could get a couple of good deals on that card and you have $2,000 in fan cash. You know, like it's a, it's definitely a long-term play, but every year that they released this redemption program, it gets closer to that time where it'll actually, the utility will definitely be there at some point. And you could add, right? You could add to that utility in the future. So every red, red logo, rookie card, you know, in, let's just say you have a, whoever it is in 10 years, it's like, it's a meet and greet or whatever it is like, you don't know. And that's what Fanatics is doing with these players. They're building these relationships that, and then they're signing people and it's happening with NFL and it's happening with NBA. And I think Fanatics is really taking that to a different level and getting prepared for what's kind of about to come. You know what I mean? Agreed. Yeah. I was talking, I was just thinking to myself, you don't have to wait till the hall of fame. Like there are different tiers. So if the pitcher wins a Cy Young, the rookie pitcher wins a Cy Young, all of a sudden that's valued at 300 bucks. So you cash that out and then it's, it's like marked cashed out. Like you can't cash that out anymore. I guess you got to redeem it, right? So you got to redeem the card and then, and then, and then you trade it and it's done. Yeah. Right. You know, but there might be some on the market that hasn't have, haven't been redeemed. That's my whole point though. Like Fanatics, like Fanatics, think about this. So it's like if, if the hall of fame is a thousand bucks, like how many Cy Youngs do you have to win? Like you're going to cash out, you're not going to hold it for $700 more. I'd rather cash out on the $300 Cy Young if that could happen like instantly. So that's why the hall of fame needs to be like $10,000 or something stupid because will they hold it? Will people hold it? Will it, you know what I mean? But there's no point of holding it for a thousand. Guess not. I guess, I guess the assumption is if you're going to make it to the hall of fame, you might have already won at least one or two MVPs as well, right? Right. And by then you cash out, you have to cash out, right? Hey, maybe there are, you know, diamond hands out there. Do we know the print runs on, on these red rookie cards? They seem pretty more common. I would think. It's a good question. I have no idea, but that is a really good question we should look into. So Clark, just thinking about that. So I think for this, it's good because it would be a generic way of doing it because it's not a big rookie card anyways. It's like a base rookie card type, but where I could see this really working now, and I'm going to open up a can of worms here because think about parallels. So now you do only parallels that have utility and every parallel 20 out of 25 because, because the way I see it is the rarity becomes why people like parallels and with each color. So it's like true gold. Now they could make true gold worth more because the utility becomes different with true golds as more desirable. You see what I'm saying? So with that said, I'm going to really open up a can of worms here because the, our whole system right now is based on like web two logic, which is like, you know, current internet that we're, we're experiencing. So the whole like crypto space is trying to go defy, you know, onto like this web three internet, like internet on PDs, let's say, but way more data, way more capabilities where users have wallets, right? So now assets make sense because the main difference would be, let's just say you own fan cache. For instance, technically everything is done through fanatics, the server. You don't really own anything. Whereas on a web three platform, that would be that fan cache would be tokens and you could even interchange this with, you could think of like PS five by then PS six games MLB the show interchangeable. Like this is what, where we are going. And this is like living proof because the web, like web three technology, I think will come into play in our society in the next five years, let's just say. So for me, this is the physical portion of sports card collecting of how it's going to actually translate into a digital asset. And that's, that's how I see this just to kind of go into detail, like just, and I wouldn't have thought about this because we just get the show notes. And then it's kind of like, you kind of think about this and it's just like clicks, right? This is it. This is the entryway. And I think they're going to use parallels as different types of utility. Now you're creating more value and collectability in a physical asset. Possibilities are endless. Yeah, for sure. Like you were saying before, game within a game is like a hobby within the hobby, right? Exactly. And it's not for everybody too. Like some people just want to flip. So be it. If that's your thing, there's, there's the tools and resources that can do it. If you want to be a super fan and geek out on baseball and follow people's careers, this is great for you, right? So that's the way I see it. Yeah. So these are, this is all extra, like, like you're saying like that, that's just good for potentially newer collectors that might be into this more than, you know, how we traditionally enjoy the hobby. So I think this is trying to widen that base and I'm all for it. Okay. Let's move on to our next segment called Hobby Headlines. And I was going to save this for a bit later, but because you brought up the issue of parallels, I'm going to bring up this point first, but I want to put something into context. The Red Rookie Redemption Program was actually announced at the TOPS industry conference that took place this past week. And it's primarily for hobby shop owners and for breakers. But that Red Rookie Redemption Program wasn't the only announcement, there was a bunch more. So I thought we can go through some of the more interesting ones and we'll just react to them and see what kind of impact we think it'll have on the hobby, if any. Okay. So like I said, the first one I want to bring up is that TOPS, they will begin to sync the colored parallels inside their Chrome products, right? So you know how we used to have like certain parallels number to 125 and then the same color parallel is number 299. So they are syncing it. So each version will have the same serial number across all products. Your thoughts? Love it. A hundred percent. About time. I hated TOPS Chrome update, reds were out of 25 and a true TOPS Chrome red is out of five. It's like, stay consistent. Orange is 25, you know, gold is 50, green is 99, blue 150, you know, and keep it that way. Yeah. You know what I mean? And with that, it's exactly what I was saying. Now these parallels have certain classifications all across the board and going back to utility, this makes sense. Yeah. The consistency will help for sure in that, on that front. Absolutely. Okay, got that out of the way. The big one is obviously the licenses that are going to come into play for both NBA and the NFL for Tops. I believe the officially licensed NBA products will begin to release on October 1st of this year and the NFL is a year later in April 1st of 2026. So let's begin with the NBA first. Once they get their license from Panini in October, they already announced they're planning to institute a buyback program that's similar to the one we've seen in the Tops baseball products. You know, if they want an MVP, you could trade it into a hobby shop, get some credit from your local LCS. So I think they're going to do something like that for Tops NBA basketball products. And the other, of course, big news related to licensing is we're going to see the first licensed Wemby products, Wemby cards that will be coming. So any immediate thoughts from you on the whole Tops getting their NBA license? How big is that going to be for basketball cards and the Wemby first licensed products coming out? If you're an investor in, you know, fanatics, I think you're going to be very happy with the next two years in terms of what they have in store. That being the NBA licensing and then NFL. So it's like that being back to back, like that's massive. From a business standpoint, what they're doing is exactly checking off the boxes of what just needs to be done to become this monster, kind of like running the show in every single aspect efficiently. And to me, they're doing it at a really fast rate. So all these things, I remember when we were talking about this, when this was news, it's like, yeah, that's 2025, that's 2026. But here we are, you know, we're here now. And I think it's going to be a game changer for sure. Because one, I think the first year Tops Chrome unlicensed basketball had hype. And I don't think it will have as much value as the hype. But I think there will still be collectability in that set before transitioning to an official, I guess, Tops Chrome licensed product. So I think, yeah, it's going to be an exciting, I think, for the hobby. It's going to be exciting in general for the hobby. And as well as NFL collectors, I think bringing that experience from a Fanatics versus Panini is going to totally be different for each sport. Like I said, we've got to see it from the baseball side. And if there's other, you know, basketball, football, hobbyists out there listening, I personally think it's a good move for a collector. Like I said, they never really experienced it, because we've kind of seen what they've done on the baseball side with Tops Chrome update, with the upgrades of product. And I know people are like, almost like 50-50 on this saying, oh, the hobby is ruined. The hobby is not ruined. It's what you make of it. It is what it is. We're not going to change what Tops does. So it's like, you either kind of, you know, see what they're doing and say, okay, how can I enjoy it? So in that aspect, to the football and basketball collectors, I think the experience as a collector is going to increase in terms of fan experience or hobbyist experience. Yeah, I'm aligned with you. At the risk of sounding like fanatic fanboys. I mean, this is pretty exciting in terms of licensing product. And I'll say this, though. The Tops Chrome basketball that just came out, the unlicensed, I bought one for 300 bucks. I regret buying one for 300 bucks, to tell you the truth. We're all buying it just for the Wemby chase. And if Wemby wasn't in there, I believe the set would have been a total bust. It just came out a year early. They're obviously trying to capitalize on it. And, you know, it was a business decision. I'm sure they made a ton. I'm sure it was the right decision for them from a business standpoint. But from a collector standpoint, I don't think other than Wemby cards, the value is there. That's just my opinion. But when the licensed product comes out, just seeing the initial hype of the unlicensed product of Tops Chrome, I think this is going to be huge. I think this is going to be and the downside of that, too, because of the hype, I think it's going to be expensive. So there is a downside to it. Maybe you just wait. Maybe you just buy singles. That's probably the wisest thing to do. And that's the thing. It's like the marketplace will always dictate that. Whether it's hyped or not, who cares? It's what our human behavior is currently showing. So markets will create, like I said, that will make you make different decisions. So instead of now buying a $300 hobby box, which is probably going to be $500 now, right? You're already looking at an alternate way to have more demand in a different marketplace, which is single slabs or single cards. So it's always going to be going in a different direction. But whether or not you like it or not, whether or not breakers are there, then move pivots elsewhere. That makes sense to you. The fact is the marketplace is not going to change. There's too many people consumed with this and they're controlling the narrative through marketing. So at the end of the day, that's the foundational element that we're dealing with. So to me, it's all about now, like you said, if ripping doesn't make sense as a hobbyist, I would say, are you not excited to look for rare singles at a good deal now? I would be. I'm on eBay every day anyways doing that. So there's nothing wrong with that either, right? Yeah. And if John were on the show, I know he has reservations mostly from the three of us about how this seems to push everyone to breaking. And he's not a huge fan of it. I think I could say that. And I get that point as well. Because for some, and I'm not saying for John, he believes this, but I know I've heard they don't like the breaking aspect of it because it's really just gambling in their eyes. And that's fine. You don't have to participate. But really, the alternative to this that they want is for the hobby to be like it was back in the old days. And I think you have to give up on that dream because the hobby has evolved to a point where we're not going back to how the hobby used to be. It's just too big of a business now. And with that said, though, Clark, I think there are going to be elements that keep the hobby old school like card shows. And we enjoy that. There's nothing wrong with that. It's like that could still coexist. Yeah, for sure. And I think I've seen it where beyond the hype, if you wait long enough, singles, the market adjusts and you get good deals. It's not to the point where other than the superstar players and the low number parallels of Wemby or those kind of players, but there are deals to be had if you're patient, if you keep looking. So I think there's still room for just general hobbyists to still enjoy the hobby like they used to just buying and collecting cards that they actually like. So yeah, I'm looking forward to it. That kind of on the periphery, I'm still wondering if I should just get a Wemby Prism rookie card with the license or should I get the Tops Chrome unlicensed. I'm now leaning. I can't believe I'm saying this. I was always a Chrome autograph basketball rookie. That was my thing. Now I'm like, I think the Prism is a smarter play. There's a hundred million parallels out there, I know, but you got to choose one and just stick with it. And I think the first licensed Wemby cards will be highly demanded, even though it's considered a second or third year. I think it will actually be really highly demanded and it's going to hold up in value. I don't know if you have any thoughts on that. Do you think that's the case? A hundred percent. Like you said, your thinking just went from, well, Panini Prism, the OG Wemby rookie will hold value. But then you see what I'm saying? It's like there will always be different thinking perspectives of what is a good buy and why this card will be different than the Tops Chrome flagship or whatever it is. So for me, that's the beauty of holding value. And you're right. I think there's going to be value in each, to be honest, even the Tops Chrome unlicensed. I think there's going to be a point in time where it's like, well, this is the first Tops Chrome card of Wemby, whether you like it or not. This is a year younger or a year older. And then there's going to be the argument of, well, it's unlicensed. So this is the first Tops Chrome licensed. But then people like you are going to be like, well, you guys could argue all you want, but Panini Prism is the real OG licensed rookie card. And based on that, nobody is wrong. And if you have millions and millions of people thinking this way, there will always be a strong market for each card, in my opinion. Yeah, and you kind of see it bear out. I know Cajun Cardboard chastised me when I said this comparison, but the 84 star and the 86 flair of Michael Jordan's rookie cards, there's always that debate, which one's the true rookie. And you got collectors for both cards now, right? That's see value in both. So I think it'll be similar in that sense. It's not a perfect apples to apples analogy, but I hope you guys know where I'm coming from with that. All right, next one. We kind of alluded to it. The NFL license comes into play April of 2026, which means Panini will have the NFL license through this upcoming season. So they got one more year. But then the thing is, the rookie cards usually are delayed. So I think we just had the NFL draft, Cam Ward, King No. 1, there's Abdul Carter, Ashton Gente. They'll all have licensed rookie cards in 2026. So that's something for football card collectors. I'm sure they'll be eagerly anticipated for sure. Massive, massive. Same thing with – I think this will be just as big relatively to the market for football. I think it's going to be a huge, huge chase. Obviously, same thing what we say on the show. It's like it's all over hype. So if you think you're going to make – it's a spike and then a crash and then a correction. That's what – with every single new product, just be prepared. Some people like riding that wave of hype and there's money to be made there. But just be careful because you don't want to be the ones holding the bag for a long period of time. Again, if their career pans out, then it will correct itself to where it needs to be based on demand. Sports will always be the main driving factor of price point. So as long as sports exist, you always have a strong marketplace. Absolutely. But there's going to be more special patches in upcoming products. And one of them they announced was the 2024 World Series logo patches from this past season, the Yankees and the Dodgers players. They're going to be inserted into booklets in 2025 Tops Transcendent. Oh, amazing. I like it because Transcendent is the worst ROI set in the whole entire history of sports card collecting. Baseball guys know this. Phil Hughes knows this, ripping $25,000 boxes of Tops Transcendent only to resell at like hundreds of dollars per auto. It's crazy. That set needs some big, big push in terms of chase or value. And I think this is a move that Fanatics is doing. It's like, okay, if Tops Transcendent is a high-end, high-end set, how can we make this more high-end? And there's nothing more high-end than including a massive, massive piece in terms of memorabilia into the chase. And I would like to see more of that to strengthen that product as well. And like I said, from a general hobby perspective, Transcendent does not make sense. I'm telling you, it does not make sense. And you could justify it and you're probably right. $25,000 box is ridiculous. However, I've seen in the past people buy into like 25 spots at $1,000 and you get whatever card is within that spot that you're buying into. So it's like there's creative ways where people are still breaking this product where it makes sense, sort of, or it's just a higher-end gambling. But like I said, going back to what they're actually doing, I love it. It needs it because I was never a fan of Transcendent, to be honest. But I think there's massive, massive potential with that brand. Yeah, I mean, this is another proof for me, at least, that Fanatix knows what they're doing, right? Tops Chrome update wasn't a highly desired set until MLB debut patches. We just talked about the red rookie patch. redemption program in bowman baseball which was a bad roi set too so now they're adding a little something something to it and now it's like this the same same pattern same play tops tops transcendent like you're just mentioning horrible roi and i still think they need to reduce the retail price value of tops transcendent but at least they're adding something now to it to you know increase the the value or at least have this um another chase element to it and you know like i could see i would never buy top transcendent i would never buy into a break anyways either for the cost but if i was a huge baseball fan of the yankees or dodgers or anyone that makes the world series in the future it'll be kind of cool if i just buy a single off the off ebay you know like your favorite team world series logo patch of your favorite player right you know if it's like a few hundred bucks i'm yeah why not buy it and maybe that's what they that's the direction they go to go into is like you you do it as a world series set like of that highlight and not just one you're talking right you you make the one of one the best chase patch right which which include whatever it is from the world series but then you also have different elements of the world series whether it's a napkin patch or whatever but at least it's still like world series no napkin patches like at least like a two-tone patch in transcendent come on it's expensive so you want better patches but it just so that it there's more than the one of one yeah agreed all right um speaking of patch cards you know we're a big fan on this program on this podcast of tops dynasty baseball we feel like it's underrated and they announced the upcoming 2024 tops dynasty release and they're borrowing this from basketball they're getting the dual autographed mlb logo treatment all right so we know in basketball the logo man card is huge we know the dual logo man card is huge the triple logo obviously but we haven't really seen it translated in baseball until now you're going to see a dual mlb logo man autograph card um in the upcoming tops dynasty that's uh that's pretty crazy that's pretty rad if i was man i'm just thinking it's like did panini not like trademark logo man or something like how could how could tops chrome just do that for free you could think panini built that brand yeah you know tops like we're gonna do the same thing well is there no protection on using the logo man but with that said i like it if i'm if i'm ripping dynasty like i said it's an it's an extra chase i know from a secondary marketplace that logo man cards will do very very well even in baseball especially if uh if that becomes a chase and you just pulled up a picture and i love it it's beautiful beautiful card this is and it's a perfect set because like i said definitive is underrated i think there's buying opportunities there across multiple players um there's top dynasty actually dynasty sorry what did i say definitive oh definitive yeah dynasty i meant dynasty they got to do something with definitive too yeah definitive yeah i don't i don't like definitive dynasty is like what where like patch autos will are are really nice they're on card autos for the most part so yeah it's it's such an underrated set i like it yeah i didn't even think about like whether they should have licensed logo man uh but that just goes to tell you panini man what a opportunity they squandered you know oh man they just crazy it's a lesson for any um big businesses to learn you always got to adapt and just try to stay ahead of the curve instead of just sitting on your laurels and just riding the wave you know but i would say they they weren't it came all of a sudden where tops and fanatics just said this is how we're gonna do it and you have no choice and they basically put a gun to panini's head it's like you're not gonna do anything about it so yeah well we won't we won't bash panini completely but yeah fair enough fair enough um all right that's all i got but you know uh every time tops industry conference happens it seems like they come up with a lot of more exciting new announcements and just honestly it makes me more bullish about the hobby in general so glad to hear all these new innovations taking place and and uh we'll see you know the products will be coming out soon and then we'll see how it actually looks like and uh you know what the reception will be but um i think all in all it's pretty pretty great news for the hobby in general okay let's move on to our next segment it's called over under so i know i usually pick a large number to play this game but today i'm going to bring it down a bit to a thousand bucks okay so i'm going to give you a list of cards and you tell me if you think the last sold price went over or under one thousand dollars sounds great okay the first one got to start off with our boy shouhei otani of course the 2018 tops chrome shouhei otani and these are all psa 10s just made it simple that way 2018 tops chrome shouhei otani prism refractor rookie card refractor rookie card pop count 843 for psa 843 hang on let me just uh i'm not looking at i'm i want to see shouhei's numbers i haven't been following him as as hard what's his what's he hitting right now so he's just he's he's doing okay he's doing okay he's doing really well he's on is he on pat leave right now so he's taking a little bit of break right right and he might come back you know blazing fire so his numbers can really really pop by then and his market will hit but man i prism prism refractor uh it's not numbered it's not numbered it's a lower pop it's kind of like a niche the refractors are more demanded but higher printed i would say the refractor should be around six seven hundred bucks uh maybe it's higher i haven't checked prices i'm gonna say it's over because i feel like the hype is still there but i wouldn't be surprised if it was under it not yet but i think we're stupid as a whole hobby so you need to give the hobby more credit man come on 786 dollars last sold okay good and you know what the prisoner i'm not a big fan of prism refractors i just don't think it looks nice it's it's very niche yes very niche i will say you know what i love prism refractors in the sense that i found like five shohei second year prism refractor otani's second year that i that psa 10 and i sold for like 200 or 150 bucks or whatever it was you made money you made money yeah nice all right um next one 1996 97 we're talking about topscore basketball when they had their license back then 96 97 tops chrome of michael jordan psa 10 pop count 125 125 tops chrome and i brought this up because the jordan market is crazy right so yeah yes at a pop 125 i have to i have to say it's over you're right 1330 bucks wow yeah wow it's just a it's not a rookie card but i could see the value of that still and i think that's why i'm so bullish on the tops chrome brand is because we're talking it has super super rich history and the market marketplace is you know showing that so for sure agreed all right we're gonna go soccer now okay 2021 panini don russ kaboom card of david beckham psa 10 pop count 68 david beckham what's what's he been up to like that that that came out of nowhere he had that netflix special last year a couple years ago but um david beckham kaboom 2021 case hit case hit i think the initial reaction is it's over but like part of me saying that it has to be under so i'm gonna say it's under that's good go with your gut 885 dollars yeah i don't know i feel like kaboom cards just generally do well and i thought you know david beckham's a name so i think that's a healthy sale though i like it if i'm a david beckham fan i'm buying that card yeah 880 bucks yeah yeah for sure all right um two more the 2024 bowman draft dual autograph card of travis bezana and jack caglione number 299 oh man sticker autos if that matters i'm gonna just quickly check uh travis bezana i wanna i like i i think he's gonna hit like he's he's a pretty pretty solid hitter but he's struggling this year but caglione's going off so i'm gonna hang on let me see caglione's numbers i mean he's all right he's doing okay i think he he went off on spring training um out of 99 that seems a little high for those two but it is the bowman draft year um i'm gonna say it's under under yeah i think the initial hype has you know because it just came out so i think that still has a factor in it so sold for 1100 oh that's a that's a tough one tough one i think but i could be wrong like i i gotta hold but i i feel like if it was out of 25 then yes but like 99 is like not as rare as you want it for sure fair enough last one the lakers just got bounced in game five luca donchic 2018 silver prism we always come back to this iconic card that i bought for way too much and sold out a nice loss where do you think it's at now good over or under a thousand good lord um i feel like if you just studied luca luca prism silvers you could make a living off of it buying and selling the prices goes up and down up and down you need to get a nice boost when he got traded to lakers but yeah but yeah i don't know um what's the pop on that again i feel like it's like 23 2400 yikes that scares me um 23 77 23 that seems too high uh but there was a lot of hype that i could see that the price sustains itself based on the hype still and lakers timing is is is interesting too right now because we're i guess uh where they are so i'm gonna say it's under a thousand under a thousand wow okay it's actually 1185 dollars has it gone up since he he he got traded or is it down yeah it went up to like i think 1400 i won't so it's it is down it's just not under the thousand yet it's trending back down yeah so i say by in two months that's going under april of 2025 sold for almost 1500 right so that was the last month that was the hype and now it's 1100 you said just under 1200 yeah 1200 so i'm gonna say yeah we always said a thousand was that that line for luca so if it's under a thousand it's a buy which i think is going to happen in the summer you think so i think you know what we'll make a friendly wager i don't think it'll ever go below a thousand i think it's stable at over just over that at the 2300 pot they could be stable yes i think it's been that pop it's been at that number for a long time now i don't think that's increasing much now i think it's going to be 2400 you know like who's going to open a box of panini what would you say the seasonal seasonal uh percentage drop would be if let's just say the true value is somewhere in between let's just say that thousand marker do you see a seasonal drop on luca or you think people will hold that's true you know what now i'm rethinking it because i'm looking at the car ladder index it went to 917 last december last december so but that that could be many factors too because that was sure also in season and he was on dallas so last what last summer it was around 1250 1250 so it went down but that's why it this works in your favor that it it stabilizes even higher right then than that point so it i think it's on that borderline it's like it could it's a goodbye under a thousand for sure i think so too i think so too yeah all right there you go that's this week's edition of over under uh the thousand bucks i'll raise the limits for the next one because i feel like it's more fun when the numbers are bigger but i like this one i like this version okay let's end off with our regular weekly segment we call pick one and as usual hyung do you want to start things off for us yes i'm going straight to aaron judge like i said still underrated still under priced this guy is doing nintendo numbers this guy is doing things that otani can't do either which is crazy so for me like what Well, he's hitting 420, 27 or something like that right now. He's leading in home runs, RBIs. This would be his third MVP. So now you're in elite class, right? So for me, I'm all in on Aaron Judge. New York Yankees, they're winning. There's a lot of good going for them. Aaron Judge has a 55 war. He's gonna be a hundred plus war player if he keeps this up. He's 32, so there's still a lot of the bodies there, the fan base is there. So I'm going Aaron Judge, I'm still buying in season or at least I'm looking for deals now. What, cause like I said, it's not saying that the whole Aaron Judge market is underrated. I think a lot of his cards are underrated. There's some cards like his Bowman first Chrome that are starting to really creep up ridiculous price range. So with that said, there's a lot of secondary cards that I like as a collector. I like the potentials of even Topps Finest, Bowman's Best, Topps Chrome, like all those sets, Topps Heritage. So I like plays like that where they're super valued in terms of their performance. So Aaron Judge comes to mind and I'm going very niche here because like I said, I'm going for a budget of 1,000 bucks. If I'm spending $1,000 on a non-auto card of Aaron Judge and it is a long-term hold, which one am I going with? So the first one is his flagship Topps Chrome, green out of 99. So Topps Chrome 2017, Topps Chrome. This is where he's jumping in there, catching that fly ball. So not the most exciting image. I don't like the image, but it is his true Topps Chrome rookie card. That sold for $850, a BGS 9.5. And it looks like it's a min gem. So to me, it's like very like, how much would an Otani be of that same card? Maybe two grand? Double, yeah, at least. Yeah, so for me, there's a lot of room in this. It's a good purchase, I think still. But I'm gonna pair that up with 2017 Topps Chrome image variation of the Topps Chrome. It's a refractor PSA 10. So that sold for just under $1,000 as well. I think it was like 700, 750 or 800 bucks. So let's just say apples to apples. Maybe the Topps Chrome green is a little bit more. Which one are you going with? Because I know you hate green. Hate is such a strong word. I don't know if I hate green. You prefer a refractor over a green. Yes, I prefer blue number to 150 over a green. But the image variation is the one where he's kind of, it looks like he's running the bases. He's running, yeah. It's designated as running. Running refractor. Gotcha. And so I guess I'm assuming, well, the green is a 99. So the refractor is not numbered. I'm gonna check the PSA pop count really quick. It's 234, PSA pop count for the image. So it is a lot higher, just that's for the PSA 10. Just for the PSA 10, yeah. Total population is 287. Would you rather the MinGem though? Oh, right, the BGS 95. I'm gonna go for, just because I don't like either image either, right? But I think the top's chrome is, I don't wanna say iconic, but it's recognizable. Right. It's fairly familiar for Aaron Judge rookie card collectors, right? The one where he's jumping up by the fence. And so for that reason, and I think the BGS 95 is always a good value still. I'm always looking for BGS 95 cards over PSA 10s. So in terms of the value, in terms of it being a more recognizable, the flagship card, I'm gonna go for the 2017 top's chrome green refractor. I know it's green, but I'm going for it. And it's numbered. I'll take it numbered over a non-numbered any day. Right, right, no. I think I'm in the same boat as you exactly. Like to me, it's a no brainer, but the reason why I brought this up is it's still similar dates, similar price points, two different choices. One person made a decision in that card. One person made a decision in the green. And I side with the guy in the green more. I think that top's chrome card is underrated. Like you said, it's what people associate with. Like, I think the reason why, for instance, we'll go to the Acuna white jersey, SSP. People recognize that card. They know the white jersey is, whoa, super low pop. They know that card. So I don't think the image variation of the top's chrome, like nobody knows that card. You know what I mean? There's no association. It's like, oh, it's just an off image or whatever it is. It looks like a complete set, top's complete set, or some off-brand rookie, as opposed to kind of like that flagship. So for me, it's a no brainer on this particular situation. Now it might flip-flop depending. Like I'd rather have the Acuna SSP than a different Acuna parallel, for instance, right? Even though the print count might be higher on the white jersey, right? But in this case, I'm going with the Aaron Judge as well, but it's interesting to see kind of like where people sit on the fence with this, because obviously someone thought it was equally valuable. Yeah, no, that's a good one. Definitely, for sure. But yeah, the BGS is just too good a value for me at this point. Okay, I'm gonna go definitely higher end since I did lower for the previous segment. So $25,000, would you rather spend that 25K on Victor Wemenyama, his 2023 Panini Prism, you know, the one we're talking about earlier, a Gold Sparkle Prism, number to 24 for some reason, Gold Sparkle Prism, number to 24, a PSA 10, or LeBron James, his 2003-04 Upper Deck SP Authentic Autograph Card, PSA 10, and it's number to 500. I think this one's an easy one for me. Really? Yeah. I'm going with the LeBron. Okay, I think I'll go for Wemby first. No, no, no, there's a couple of reasons why I'm not going for the Wemby. One, if it was a straight out gold, then I would reconsider. But I don't know about whatever you said. Gold Sparkle? Yeah, Gold Sparkle Fireworks, or whatever the parallel is out of 22, or something weird. 24? Yeah, like, yeah, that's kind of odd to me. It is PSA 10, you said? Yeah, both are PSA 10s. But yeah, to me, it's Wemby still has a lot to do. So if I'm spending this kind of money, if it was 2,500, I might go with the Wemby. But if it's 25 grand, I think I'm going with the more solid pick in terms of, okay, this is kind of like a lot safer investment. So I'm going to go with the LeBron, for sure. Yep. It's going to be a LeBron sweep. I don't know if Jon were here, it would have been a LeBron sweep. Probably not. But then he doesn't like the fake flagship either. That's true. We'll ask him next time he's on the show. We'll revisit this pick one. But to your point with Aaron Judge, someone paid 25,000 for that Victor Wemb and Yama Gold Sparkle Prism. So they see the value in it. It could be worth a lot more. If Wemby does Wemby things, I could see that being a lot more, right? I'm not discounting that at all. It's like, do I want to take that risk, is just the question. And that was my main point too. I'd rather just be LeBron, solid career, Hall of Famer, yeah. I think it's just at that price point. That's why. If it was, like I said, if it was 2,500, it's like, let's gamble. Let's go for the Wemby. Or if we're billionaires, you know what? Let's gamble with Wemby. Yeah, there you go. It's all perspective. All right, that's the end of our show. Thanks again for tuning in. We appreciate you guys. And yeah, we'll have a brand new episode for you next week. Talk to you then, bye. Hey, thanks for listening to Cards to the Moon. We'd really appreciate you subscribing to our podcast wherever you listen to your podcasts. And you can also connect with each of us on Instagram at 5cardguys, or you can follow Hyung at Integrity Sports Cards, or John at TradeUatRecess. You can also check us out at 5cardguys.com. Thanks again, and hope to connect soon. Bye.