Does the economy affect the hobby?

Welcome to the Sports Card Lessons podcast with your host, Big Ken. A retired teacher bringing you lessons each week. He's learned in the hobby by taking you behind the table and inside the mind of a dealer and a collector. Sit back and relax. There won't be a test. The only thing being graded here is the cards. Welcome to the Sports Card Lessons podcast. I'm your host, Big Ken. Whether you're watching on YouTube or or listening on a streaming service, please like, subscribe and hit that notification bell so you'll be notified whenever I drop any new content. Welcome. Thanks for being here. Happy Saturday. Happy Memorial Day weekend. Shout out to all our service members, active and retired. Thank you for your service. So this weekend, today, Saturday, I decided last minute to go to a show, made plans with my guys, Bill and Billy at Bill and Billy Sports Cards. We met up early this morning and we headed off to a show here in Connecticut at Foxwoods Casino. I attended the last show they had here and remembered it was the majority of the tables, the dealers were Pokemon. I expected the same thing again. But I do have to say anything. Any of the sports cards dealers who complain there's too much Pokemon in the room. I think the amount of Pokemon in the room today helped them with their pricing and their sales with, and I have to say, with so much economic uncertainty right now, it's surprising the hobby hasn't shown a bigger effect from people having less money to spend. Regardless of the state of the economy, there's no slowdown of cash flow at these shows and margins are becoming slimmer and slimmer. I mean, the deals I saw happening today, and I said this two or three times to people, I'm like, you would never know that gas is $5 a gallon and the, you know, the grocery store prices and all the other things going on, you would never know, by the way, what was happening at these shows today. And margins were slim today. My guy Bill was working a deal today. 3k plus offer at 90% of last sales was quickly rejected. I can't do that. And it wasn't just a couple big cards. It was a good, it was a good lot of cards. I, I mean, I was amazed. I was surprised people were turning down 90%, looking for a lot of people looking for a hundred %, at least 95, but a lot, you know, looking for a hundred percent. I found dealers to be priced high and really firm on their prices, referencing how the play, how the football market and this player and that player, how their market is starting to heat up and they don't want to. And I know that's this time of year, like I know people will start pulling football out and putting it in the case, saying, you know what? I'm not selling it for what the last sale was, you know, what, what it's been selling for throughout the winter, in the low months, you know, I'll put it out there. But you know, even if this card is selling at 300, I think it's a 500 card, I'm putting 550 on it and telling people 500 is what I'm gonna get on it. Right. And I, I just saw that a ton today in this room. I mean, I was happy to see as much football in this room as there was out there. But a little discouraging, you know, for someone like me who's said, look, I'll buy football at the right price if it's still at the sales at what it's been selling at, I, I would definitely look at it and make some play on some certain cards anyways. You know, I also, you know, I also saw a guy one hour into the show, someone I know who sold almost 70% of his inventory within an hour of the show opening. And now he was repricing his other 30 of his inventory higher because he didn't want to be sold out in the first couple hours of a two day show. Deals were taking a lot longer to get done, a lot more negotiating for the slimmest of margins. And I have to say, for what I heard and what I was part of and some of the negotiation I did, and a lot like you see this going on, you see a card you like, you're waiting at a table and you know, usually, you know, this negotiation may only take five or 10 minutes. It was taken 20, 25 minutes. But I have to say I don't think that the dealers are being unreasonable. Like I'm looking at some of these cards and I'm saying in my head, if I own that card, I couldn't put it in my case. And if I did, it would, I would have it priced higher than what the market says that card is worth. And on the other hand, I'm like, I'm the guy that wants to buy some of these cards at that price. Knowing, not knowing for sure, but really thinking, knowing the market that these cards are going to go up. If I was at this show that was mostly Pokemon with limited sports, and I say limited sports, you know, just based on the percentages of, you know, percentage to Pokemon, to, to sports. And I don't know what it was. I just know Pokemon was definitely. The percentage was higher than sports. I would have been high and firm on my prices, too. I. I did this at a show. I think it was last. I don't even remember when I went to the Albany show, it was similar. My guy Bill got me into the show. Hey, I got into this show. Let's go do it. And I went to it. Then I realized when I walk in, I'm like, oh, my God, this is all Pokemon in here. And there's a little sports section in the back. I said, well, I'm here, right? I'm gonna set up. And then I realized what a great show, right? People that came to a card show to buy sports, well, they were very limited. I mean, we were your guys back here, and we were busy all day. And people who came to that show to sell their sports cards, right? Again, very limited. We were your guys right here. So in a way, I think it worked out. And it worked out well enough for me that I'm doing that show again next week, next Saturday. And I hope. I hope it. Oh, not next, sorry, two Saturdays, two weeks from now. And. And I hope the same thing happens again. So here we are, right? Late May, Memorial weekend. Considering the current state of the economy, you think the hobby would be among the first areas impacted by reduced spending. And people are paying stronger than ever on cards. Stronger than. I mean, I witnessed it today. Some of the percentages, some of what I watched being sold today, I was just like, I was amazed. I was amazed. And it had me rethinking, like, as I'm comping out cards and I'm making offers and thinking, oh, man, this guy's way too high. I'm thinking, should I be rethinking this? Like, I. Like I'm walking up to a table and where I hear them saying, hey, look, the last sold this was 375. I'm at 450. And people are pulling the trigger on those cards, right? Maybe I should be rethinking what. What I'm doing on my set on my end, right? What. What I'm thinking. I mean, I can't. I can't do that. I can't go pay 450 on a card like that because it makes no sense to me to think that a lot of that. A lot of those margins, you know, I've got to hope for a lot of good things to happen for that card to. To. To work out for me. But tell me what you think. Does the economy affect Your card buying or your hobby spending or not at all. Like that's completely separate. Because I mean, I would think, I mean I know I'm, you know, I, I think I'm sensible enough to know that at my age and where I am in my life, the economy really doesn't affect what happens to me in the hobby and what I do. But I would have to think with people with young families and, and I think it has to affect it. I just don't see it. I haven't seen it at any of these shows. Tell me what you think about that. Even wax, right? Even wax. And a lot of people in the hobby, you know, buying and ripping retail wax, right. And even those prices to me have, have gone, have gotten too much. I mean, mega boxes are $70, blasters are $50. I walk into my, to my local Barnes and Noble a number of times and they have the same WNBA Mega boxes on the shelf. And I just can't get myself. And I know right away everybody's like who wants to buy w. I do. I mean it's what I like. It's what I like. I like to rip. I had ripped a ton of it. I just can't get myself to spend a hundred and forty dollars on two mega Boxes. And I think that would be, I think I would feel the same way with Topps Chrome Football because I, I know they're, they're equally priced the same way, right? And now we're comparing tops Chrome Football to wnba, right? Just depends on what lane you want to be in. But 140 plus tax, right on, on two mega boxes just, just seems incredibly high. It's something that like I, I just can't get myself to, to spend up for that or, or any wax on that shelf. Right. I mean and it's crazy. Like you go to these shows, all these wax guys at these shows, I mean they're, I, I see all the Target and Walmart, Walmart Blasters and Mega Boxes and even the Pokemon stuff just filling up their tables, right. I don't see anybody buying the Topps Chrome Football. I did when it first came out. I did another Albany show that I talked about that it was all the rage in the room. Everybody was ripping it. Now you know, we talked about this a little bit on the Hobby Chop where people are all like, oh, Topps Chrome Football. That's just sitting on the shelves. It's so over, you know, overprinted. And I've been to Walmarts and Targets and Barnes and Noble and all and I haven't seen one box, one blaster, one mega one, one hanger, nothing. I've seen nothing. But I go to these shows and I see, you know, just loaded up with this stuff, but I don't see anybody buying it. I have a feeling I know why it's not sitting on retail shelves because these guys are buying it. But now it's just sitting, you know, sitting, from what I can see, sitting on tables at shows because I don't see many people buying it. So, yeah, it's no wonder why we can't, or I can't find any on the retail shelves. I'm almost thinking it's, maybe it's backfired for them at this point. I asked one guy today, I said, are people actually buying these, the, the tops Chrome football? And he says, yeah, I mean, I, I sell them, but, you know, people reference the retail price all the time. Like, I, I have a feeling that if, if they could have gotten them cheaper and sold them at retail price, people would buy them. But because they're buying them at retail price and then selling them there, people don't want to pay the upcharge on them. I mean, I personally would rather spend the money on buying cards than, than, you know, overspending on a shot in the dark with, with wax at this point. And, and I tell you it is, it is much easier to buy cards on the dealer side of the table than it is as an attendee. As high as the percentages were that, that the attendees were paying, I could see cards going the other direction where people were saying, yeah, yeah, are you buying? Yeah, I mean, I'm only paying like 84, 85% if you're interested. Like it was one of those other things that, you know, you go in and you see the buying signs all over and people are just like, okay, I'll make a note of that. Moving on to another table and another table, obviously one that they want to see. I know, I know Billy, who I was with today, was selling some cards and he was going, and he got a lot of different prices from a lot of different people. And I mean, he, he, you know, did his homework, moved around the room and he, he did well, Selling office cards are the ones that he wanted to sell anyways at the show. I negotiated on so many cars today at the show, but I just could not get myself to pay over the last sales on the card. I, I, it just wasn't going to happen for me here because if I know I was on the other side of the table I'd be able to buy that card at less than the last sale. So I, I just couldn't get myself to overpay. I did, I did have some pickups. I'm definitely going to show share with you in a few minutes. And, and I don't mean by just a few dollars, like I don't mean Last sale was 300 and somebody wants 325, right? I mean last sale was 300 and people are asking 450 or 475 or 425 or I'm four form IT firm at 400. Like that time, that type of significant amounts. That again, for what I'm going to be doing with the cards, it's, that would not make sense to me. And, and I know the, you know, the people coming through the room, you know, the, the repackers, the whatnoters, I, I think they have figured out what cards they can get the best deals on. Because when I go to these shows, like I observe, I like to observe people like, especially if I think somebody's successful or good at what they're doing. And I'll listen to them and I'll listen to them to their sales pitch and, and why they're getting this at this percentage or that percentage. And hey, let's add a few to. That's the biggest thing, right? Let's add a few. And I don't just want those three. I'd like to take eight or ten of your cards. Like let's, let's just put them all together. Let's start agreeing on. And, and, and I know dealers get excited with that. And I, and, and I know that's a sales pitch. You know, hey, can, can we work in like eight or 10 cards? And I know as a dealer you're like, oh, if I can get this guy to buy eight or 10 cards, like, yeah, I would definitely give them a bit of a deal. And then they start, and they start hammering on one card at a time. And, and, and if you give too much on that first card, you, you can never take back on any of the other cards you're adding. The negotiation is a, is a funny negotiation. And I, I do, I like to observe, I like to, to listen to see how it's working out for people and what they're getting. And, and I know that they're the, the, the price, their price lanes, right? That, that under 300 is big for them right now because I saw that a lot today. Like, what else, what else do you have that. And get into under 300. I heard that a lot at the show today. So that, where, where I was talking where people were buying the, the, the, the low slabs, the 20s, the 25s, the 30s, you know, getting rid of that, that stuff maybe. So today I didn't really see a lot of that today I saw a lot of those sub 300 cards people were, were trying to buy up in stacks. You know, I think the football market, I can't say I think I know the football market is on the rise. This is where it's going to start going up now. And what. And with the, the such a backup of grading at PSA and all that hobby capital just sitting there in limbo, right, doing nothing because. And I, I'm in the same predicament. I've got a whole bunch of cards out there, a great, you know, for grading. And you just. Now I'm just waiting, right? You just got this stuff just sitting in limbo. And the lack of new cards coming to the market because the grading backup, I think we're going to see a lot of these graded cards really start to increase in value just because there's a shortage of them. And not just the tens. I think the nines too, I think, I think you're going to see their value rise. I, I don't know if I should say significantly rise up, but I think that the, those nines are going to become more important than they've ever been before. I don't. We're going to be saying, oh, we're, we're going to compare the nine to a rod. I, I don't think we're going to be seeing here hearing that as much moving into this season. And, and mark my words, I think we're going to see a significant increase in these graded quarterback cards this year. You know, every year it's something in the hobby and, and this is the year we're going to remember that, that, that PSA was so backed up and they were making changes and they sat on all these cards that we all were waiting to come back from grading. It was all inventory we expected to have for the national or that time of year. And that was the year it arrived too late. And I think it's going to, it's going to add a lot of value to cards that normally wouldn't have jumped up so much. But because of the lack of all these cards coming back from grading, I think it's going to increase value on other cards. So I mentioned I had some pickups, two cheap ones here. Tyler shook their Absolute autos. Tyler Shook and Shador Sanders. Just raw autos on there. This, this card here, probably my favorite patch I've ever purchased today. Not. Not. Yeah. Of all the patches I've ever owned, I think this is just an unbelievable, unbelievable patch. It is immaculate. It is Rashi Rice. It's numbered a fit. And I know he's in jail. It's number to 15. But if you were on YouTube, if you're on YouTube now, look at this patch. Look how nice this patch is. This card is unbelievable. Happy to have it. And, and him being in jail, I, I was able to get a good deal on this, but I'm sure, I'm sure he's going to be back for the season. And then I picked up a couple Caleb William cards today, both PSA nines. I picked up the blue wave which is numbered to 230. PSA 9, hold that up for you. And I also picked up the red wave number to 149, both PSA nines. I was able to get these cards below last sale and you know, head into the national in Chicago. I'm gonna have to be happy to have these cards. This is a player's market, Caleb Williams's market. I'm, I'm already watching his market increase now. So I'm happy to have those cards and add that to my national inventory. Holiday weekend, check out auctions on Sunday night wherever you, you're usually buying whatever auctions online you're buying. Maybe get some steals and deals with a Monday holiday. This is the time of year it starts usually through the summer. Whenever there's anything on a Sunday night auction, I get excited hoping that there'll be less bidders on it. Thursday night, I will be back live 9pm with my guy Zip on the Hobby Chop next weekend. Two shows next weekend. The big show in Bristol, Connecticut and Bill and Billy's Danbury show on Sunday. And that's all I have for you. Happy holiday weekend. Short and sweet episode today and I'll be back next week. Until next time, take care of yourselves and everyone around you.