High Net Worth Collectors And Institutional Money Ruining The Hobby?; Guessing Kevin O'Leary's $50M card; Which Six-Figure Ohtani Card Would You Pick?

You're listening to Cards to the Moon, a podcast about trading cards from both a collector and investor perspective. We hope you'll stick around for the ride as we take a deep dive into the state of the hobby, share some hot takes, hopefully some useful advice and fun stories along the way. Hey guys, welcome back to Cards to the Moon. This is episode 350, and my name is Clark from 5cardguys.com, and you can also find me on Instagram, YouTube, and on Facebook, at 5cardguys, all one word. Co-hosting with me as usual is Hyung, who is at ChoHyung, and you can also find him on Instagram and YouTube. Okay, it's another busy week in the hobby with some incredible sales this past week, and I think there's deeper implications of what those sales means to the hobby moving forward, and we're going to discuss that more in depth in just a bit. But before we do, off the top, Kevin O'Leary, he's back in the hobby news again, and this time it's because he was on Fox & Friends recently, where he announced that he would be unveiling a card, presumably that he acquired, which he values at $40 to $50 million, and he added, this is funny, that this card, which he'll unveil on February 27th, I should say that, so mark your calendars, this card will make, quote, grown men weep, okay? Any guesses what that card can be, Hyung? First off, like, that's hilarious. I think, like, I wouldn't expect not having a one-liner from Kevin O'Leary, but I think that just explains his character right on the spot, but I think there's only a few cards that could justify that price point, and to me, I have two guesses, three guesses, I would say three possible cards, and two of them, I would say, wouldn't yet justify a $50 million price tag, but that's subjective, obviously, but I think there's only one realistic one that would justify a $50 million standpoint, to me, and it would be the T206 Honus Wagner, highest graded, which is a PSA 8, it's in Ken Kendrick's D-backs collection, but I think that would be the Holy Grail of Holy Grails, we're talking, the next card would be the PSA 10 medal, which is probably what you thought I was going to say. I thought you were going to say the medal, PSA 10, yeah, the fourth one. I would say either those two, so we know that the 52 manual is a pop three, and one is owned by Ken Kendrick's, and then that PSA 8 is owned by Ken Kendrick, and that's a PSA 8, which is a pop one, but here's the kicker, Clark, I'm going to open up a can of rabbit holes, so the PSA 8 is known to be altered, or it's floated out there that this card is not, it's original, and it's interesting, because I think Gretzky and McNally, which is the old owner of the LA Kings, they purchased it, I believe in 93 or 91, there's this back story to this card, and it is the first graded PSA card, it has the serial number technically 000001, or whatever it is, so to me, that would be the only card remotely justifiable saying, okay, this is the most expensive card period, I think, like there's no other card, but here's the thing, would that kind of affect the value knowing that it has a history where we have court documents that say that this, and we have the grader that actually graded it that I think verbally might have admitted that the card was altered, so it's like, does that lose value, or does that even matter at that point, because it's such a talked about card and such a holy grail that it doesn't matter, and for me, I think it's that card, the second would be the 52 manual, and the third would be the PSA 5 version of the T206, so that would be the next highest graded, but it doesn't have the back story, because I don't see Ken Kendrick selling any of his cards. No, I agree. But you never know with these people, man, they have deals in secret places, it's like this guy knows this guy, you don't know if they lost the bet, I don't know, like it's crazy, but I can't see it being the PSA 5 though, like Kevin O'Leary is like, no, I want the PSA 8. Yeah, man, where would he have found it, so that's the thing, if that's the case, right, but yeah, excellent points, especially about the Wagner, apparently it was trimmed, to be more specific, right, to get that PSA 8 condition, but yeah, those are the two I was thinking of, as well as a lot of people, if you read the comments on the O'Leary reel, those are the two that come up, there's one more, and I feel like you're going to doubt that it even comes close to the 50 million valuation, which is more modern, and of course I'm talking about the Stephen Curry, Topps Chrome, Super Fracture, Rookie, one of one, no chance at all? I don't think so, Kevin O'Leary is not a modern card guy, no chance. What are you talking about, he has the Jordan, LeBron, Duel. Understand, understand, totally understandable, we're talking 50 million dollars, there's no way that this is a sport play in modern, we're talking generational, illiquid, like not sellable, museum collection, and I get it, there's no doubt in my mind, is it worth 50 million dollars, very justifiable, because Super Fractures are subjective, but I don't see it at all, it has to be Grail, we're talking the history, this is the Topps sale, think of that, it's the Topps sale, it has to be either the Grails, like we're talking, of the whole sports card industry, can it be the Topps Chrome, Super Fracture, Stephen Curry? At 50 million, I think there's zero chance. You know what, you're not the only one, I've gotten some comments that say it won't even be half that, so there are people that don't believe in the value of, I mean, it's got such a story behind it too, right, like it's been hidden for so long, it's kind of like the Luka Doncic Black Prism 1 of 1, if that pops up, that's going to cause a stir in the hobby, but yeah, I think, yeah, what you're saying is, it's got to probably be one of the more vintage, more historic, more iconic cards, but at the same time, there's a part of me that, Kevin O'Leary, we kind of said at the top, he's a showman, right, I feel like we're going to be disappointed, because he's playing it up a lot, you know, the 50 million valuation. But here's the thing, here's the thing with Kevin O'Leary, like he doesn't, he's so particular on fine arts, and quality, and scarcity, that price really doesn't matter, because, and that's why he truly, truly, truly sees, you know, sports collectible as an asset now, he's totally in, and if you look at his hobbies, and remember, when you have, like, literally exposable or disposable, unlimited income, and you look at his hobbies, like wine collecting, like drinking 1000s of dollars of bottles of wine as a hobby, and watches, we all know he's a big, he wears two watches, who wears two watches, you know what, to me, I have my own opinion on two watches, but to him, he could pull it off, because he's Kevin O'Leary, and he cares about stuff that, I guess, is very, very scarce and rare. And that's how he sees kind of like true value over generational moves. And I thought about this a lot. If you look at our habits of why we're in the hobby, some people will flip. So a modern card, it's like, oh, I bought this for 5 million. And I sold it for 20 million. Amazing. That's what I don't see that this is not that type of play. This is the type of play, where it's, I have the best card in existence, I am number one. And someone like him would try to make that move is what I'm saying. I just don't see it as like, like, like I said, it could be gimmicky. But then he loses so much credibility. Like if somebody's like, oh, that's not a $50 million card. I could say that PSA is a $50 million card. We're gonna find out on February 27. So I'm going to cut this conversation off, because our next segment, we're going to talk exactly what you're kind of leading into. Okay, so let's move on right now to hobby headlines. All right, so Hyung, just like you said, O'Leary, you know, and or just to add on to what you said, O'Leary went on Fox and Friends, after the sale of the Pikachu Illustrator PSA 10 card owned by formerly owned by Logan Paul, sold on auction by Golden for a record breaking $16.5 million. And I'm going to go more in depth in that sale in particular with Will and Roy who will have on next week. But he was saying how Kevin O'Leary was saying how the collectibles market has now essentially come fully to the forefront for investors like himself. So that raises the question of what's happening to the hobby right now, in general at large, right. And I want to quote a couple of people that really summarizes what seems to be happening really well. So first, Will Stern, he's, he works for collect.com. And he said this on his LinkedIn page, quote, we are seeing an unprecedented flight to quality in the collectibles market, with more H&W buyers, high net worth buyers, and institutions bidding against each other for the cream of the crop in each category. What remains to be seen is how this will affect the mid tier of the market, end quote. Okay, and I think one more quote, Jeremy, Jeremy Lee of Sports Card Live, and a friend of the podcast, he said, I feel like he said a little better, quote, one takeaway from the 16.5 million Pokemon Illustrator sold on Golden by Logan Paul. At the lowest dollar levels, people buy what they love. The money doesn't matter. At the highest dollar levels, people buy status, access, and leverage. The money doesn't matter. In the middle, the stakes are real. That's where the money matters. And the comps actually mean something, end quote. So they're kind of saying the same thing here, right? So I don't know where this conversation is going to lead. But let's start with the fact that there are these high net worth buyers and institutions coming into the cards and collectibles market, right? So, and like you're saying, and we've talked about this before on the pod, but I think it's important just to restate our position, because I think we agree on this. Is this good or bad for the hobby? I would be interested in hearing why it's bad for the hobby, because for me, I think there's a counter argument to every bad, and vice versa. Like you could say, because it all depends on the lens, again, each individual looks at. Because if you're someone who just likes collecting, and the price of hobby boxes are ridiculous, because so many people are after the chase, and it ruined your hobby, you're gonna see this hobby as bad, period. And I can't argue with it, it would suck. If I were in your standpoint, and I'm trying to collect my card, and I have a budget of whatever it is to build my set, and I can't build my set anymore. Of course, I'm going to throw a temper tantrum. But like I said, every perspective is different. And I don't see any bad in this. Like I see if anything, it's going to make your assets a lot more value. So yeah, I was saying, I don't think it can be bad for technically, the general hobby, because I think a lot of people's, you know, collectability goes hand in hand with kind of like value. We all want our collectibles to increase in value. And we enjoy our collection while we watch sports or whatever it is. So I think if anything, it's helping. And what Jeremy Lee said is true, but I would say the stakes are real at every level. Right? And of course, we feel it a lot more, because our actions are directly correlated with money. And what they were saying is, the reason why they buy it is not because of money. You see what I'm saying? So the stakes are real in the sense that we can't look at it necessarily in the same lens as a Kevin O'Leary. But I think it's directly correlated, because if we play our cards right, we can participate in plays that, you know, we seen before Kevin O'Leary, you know, and it's the same thing. If you ask anybody, and I'll ask you, it's like, if you have unlimited money and money wasn't the decision factor obviously you want to buy at a reasonable price but money isn't the end-all be-all it's more of as if I could land or if I want an iconic card what would it be and all it takes is a few guys to have that mindset that's it because the scarcity we're talking about are single-digit right assets so for me you you blend that into modern collecting you pull a super fractor of show hey Ohtani hey that's massive and it's only massive because the market says it is and and that's partially thankful to the high-end collector that's thankful to the people right is it worth that much we're not here to argue and I see this in the comments dude they're like it's a piece of cardboard it's not worth that much and it's like here we go let's break down every single thing that doesn't have physical asset attached to it yet people are trading it on a daily basis whether it's gold digital gold will even call it you don't have gold it's like you're buying and selling on a market and that's the same thing as sports cards it's a marketplace real estate is the same thing whether you buy real estate you're purchasing and you're selling so it's the same concept that the only difference is it's right now it's super unregulated which is which is an issue we don't know what type of money's coming in which we talked about this on the pot it's like what happens when institutional money comes in on really scarce and high demandable products and that's exactly what's happening is when you have an unregulated market that has shown thousands I don't know if it's thousands hundreds of percent of growth over the years right of course the people that were making five to ten percent on low interest yields they're gonna pull out their money out of that aka Kevin O'Leary right and put it into an asset class that is exponentially growing because they're early into the market and that's all it is so for me it's like it's a race to that if I think that's so bad am I gonna change whether Kevin O'Leary purchase that 50 million dollar part or can I use that to my advantage whether it's directly or indirectly correlated to me I'm looking at it as whoa this is the real deal I would love to have one of those grails one day right so and that's the that that's how I feel if I purchase that PSA 8 and money wasn't a thing I think that would be an unbelievable investment in terms of generational you know wealth yeah I mean kind of adding to your point the way O'Leary speaks about these high end cards is the same way he talks about fine art right he always references Picasso and he tells people that are interviewing him imagine if you had a chance to buy a Picasso for a hundred thousand one thousand dollars the yield on that so it is about money at the end of the day still because he sees that you know this is a store value a legitimate store value now an alternative asset class that he can invest in right so at the end of the day it is about money but but yeah I do think that there is legitimate concern with what both Will Stern and Jeremy Lee was saying and we kind of touched upon it which is that how do we think it's going to affect that mid-tier level where most of us as collectors are in right now you know we're not at the super high end we can't relate to the O'Leary's and and you know the shine 150s of the world but we can afford thousand-dollar cards and that's where the mid-tier is so do you think you know there's a possibility of and you kind of alluded this to this as well that we can be priced out we in general can be priced out of out of a lot of these products because of the chase of the one of ones or the Otani super fractured whatever the next one is or do you think there will be innovation that takes place in the hobby because of the money that's coming in so that somehow we can all still participate in the hobby whatever way it looks do you know I mean what do you think I I don't think that should affect our buying habits you said something that was stood out to me is you're priced out so basically if you're priced out what that telling me is you don't feel like the values there to justify your purchase that's all it is so you wouldn't buy it well you would have the money to buy something you might want though right right no I'm but that's what I'm saying it's like yeah some people don't have the money to buy a thousand-dollar card or five that's fine the great thing about the hobby is the same principle applies to $50 card now the difference is if I'm in the $50 market and I'm complaining that the hobbies too expensive but that's what I'm saying it's like then what's your next play because you could play at every level and win from this and then reinvest into the higher dollar value so for me it's always like yeah if if the plays not there or let's just say I'm priced out or I don't want to rip it's because the ROI is not there and and the people that say it's not worth it maybe it's not smart to rip or smart to do what you're doing because you're getting killed but we can't justify that's the reason why the hobby sucks you see what I'm saying we can't define the hobby because of that that's a stupid move that's what some stupid person would do so therefore that's the consequence of a stupid action that's the way I see it so it's the same way you would be priced out on a card it's telling me that you know what it's not worth it because if let's just say it was worth it right you're a hundred percent sure what why do you think people like Kevin O'Leary make more money is because they think it's worth it so they're willing to put their money where their mouth is right and in it's called investing for that reason right I mean isn't it no I hear you I hear you and you know I tend to agree with everything you just mentioned I guess if I'm gonna play devil's advocate it's not even playing devil's advocate I could see that the way the hobby is changing you know with all this money coming in I could see the case that where people just guess what they don't like the hobby anymore because it's changed and that's legitimate right no we've talked about this since 2018 the hobby sucked it always sucks in 2018 it sucked in kovat it sucks in 2022 the hobby is not sustainable yet here we are in 2026 saying the same thing when when is it gonna snow I guess I know and maybe maybe for those people I'm saying maybe for those people that they just need to get out of the hobby or enjoy it a different way right because we can't hold on to things the way it used to be forever that's I think that's what we're saying right I love that Clark that's the beauty of this is everybody has a choice and it's the funny meme not to be like negative or anything but like you know it's like you don't have to announce your you leaving if you don't like it just leave like don't participate but why but that's what I'm saying is it's not that that's my whole point it's not what people think those are emotional responses that they're just mad because they skunked on a hobby box so it sucks that's all I'm saying it's like that's not a good reason why Kevin O'Leary Kevin O'Leary is not looking at the hobby saying there's no future to this hobby because man when I rip Bowman and I spent 700 bucks I got $50 on ROI the hobbies cooked that's what that's that's the logic it's ridiculous yeah you're gonna you're gonna rile up some people but I but I know what you're saying I'm I'm gonna just counter by saying I I could empathize with people that wish the hobby was a certain way and maybe it's changing too quickly for them so they can't adjust as quick so I could emphasize with them but the reality is kind of what you're saying right the hobby is changing period and so you have to adjust with it and you can't always live in the past hoping and wishing that it will return to what it was and in a way this evolution of the hobby evolution of any industry is is always a good thing because that usually means that it's growing and if it's growing more people can enjoy it even though it might not be the old-school hobbyist guess what newer people coming into the hobby are just as important to the hobby industry than the old-school collectors we've already seen that evolution in person at card shows if the card shows you kind of mentioned in our last pod if they were the same in church basements or an old ratty gyms today guess it would not grow the people will not be interested in joining the hobby but the fact that we have something like fanatics fest which is a high production event and has introduced the hobby to more people that's important right the sport card Expo forcing them to really level up that's a good thing so I think all these things contribute to the healthy growth of the hobby of course there's going to be adjustments made even during that growth they're going to be the things that we even don't like and I think the more people that don't like a certain part of the hobby guess what the hobby will adjust to that too because at the end of the day money talks and if you're losing money in the hobby especially these big industry players they don't want to lose money right so so and one last thing I'll say to like I think there's a concern that all about this whole idea of being priced out not being able to buy hobby boxes I think that's more of a legitimate concern if you see these high net worth buyers ripping more but the fact is more of them are just going for the slabs they're willing to pay for the hits that are already pulled you know and maybe it's downstream that these hobby boxes are going to cost a lot more but then there's breakers I know some people don't like it but that's one way of adjusting you can't afford a hobby box I'm gonna try breaking it's like what you're saying I'm gonna try arena slabs you know like maybe I'll like the experience I'm telling you I'm going back to arena slab I was such an arena slab I'm like this biggest rip honestly I have no desire to rip hobby boxes anymore even on releases unless it's like a really big release like and you get your hands on one but the reality is if you're truly looking for ROI I think something like arena slab or even breaking might be better than ripping a box but like I said some people don't like that either they prefer hobby box and that's the great thing about our hobby there's good things about it and bad things about it and I'm not here to always look at the bad things and define our hobby because of these bad things if anything I understand that the process of growth and we're growing really fast as a hobby you're gonna have the most ups and downs that's just the nature of life and of industries it exposes bad right so for me it's like you're gonna have ugly conversations where if you look at it and say man the hobbies doom because of it it's not that the case it's just things that are negative and in the hobby will eventually surface up and you know the people the leaders of the the hobby will do something to improve it and that's the evolution of the hobby and to me that's a really healthy way of looking at this especially someone who has to talk about it every week think if I hated the hobby and I had to talk about it every single week Clark it's like why am I even talking about it like right why am I even here it's like why don't I just get stressed about something else you know I mean it's like why why do it on air but my whole point is there's ups and downs I'm not saying that it's all roses and it's all pretty right but I'm saying I'm making the best out of it every day and sometimes I disagree with it I disagree what fanatics does I just truly disagree with what PSE does I think up charges the biggest sham and like I said I want a rebate if all the cards I played an up charge that aren't worth it that same today I better be getting a rebate for what I originally paid because if they're making money off market prices then they should give money back but that's my own opinion am I gonna change PSE are they gonna do it probably not am I gonna hold picket signs saying PSE is the biggest fraud and the hobby is a sham because of one emotional experience that I disagree with mm-hmm I'm just picking my own battles and controlling the controllables that's a good point good advice it's not sometimes it's just not worth the effort or time like you're saying and I was wanting to close on the segment but we kind of addressed it already you know because some of the comments speak of negative vibes and feelings some of the comments more I see more frequently now is of course with these high-end sales this is just another bubble the markets gonna come crashing again soon but we've kind of addressed that that it's just kind of this evolution and you know along with evolution there and along with the money I kind of pointed this out earlier too is that I really do believe there's gonna be innovation in the hobby that we don't even know of yet you know there's gonna be things that are gonna be invented that will make the hobby more enjoyable for a lot more people and I think that's inevitable because if you want the hobby to survive you need as many people to enjoy it you just can't have the O'Leary's enjoying it and then that's not sustainable and that's not good for him because if there's only a few people enjoying it that value of the whole card industry the collectibles industry would also come down because you know you need it to be sustained by just a lot more people valuating it in a positive way right so I think That's the big picture just to see that everyone enjoys a hobby and then there's value and worth in that. No, absolutely and I think it's tough because I see all the complaints with fanatics and I get it. Even like on their jersey, like the MLB jerseys, the price of jerseys is ridiculous and I get all that. If someone's going to move the needle to make the hobby better, it's someone or a brand or a company that has enormous amounts of resources in that space. So for me, the only way you can improve the hobby is by implementing your assets of what you built. So in fanatics cases, apparel and collectibles and all this marketplaces, infrastructure, platform. So for me, it's like instead of some small business trying to grow the hobby, you have one of the most innovative slash resource rich players that are coming into this hobby and they're coming from all aspects. So Kevin O'Leary would be one of them. Totally different than fanatics' position but as a high-end collector. So as you see this diverse group of people that are contributing to the growth of the hobby, I think that's what we should be looking at and focusing more because these guys are the pillars of the future growth of the hobby. And like I said, it's not about moral cop. Obviously we all have a moral compass of what we truly believe in and what's right and what's wrong. But I'm not going to necessarily change Kevin O'Leary's mind, you know what I mean? So it's like, okay, how can I use this information now and say, man, I see where the value and what other people value in the hobby and what brands are doing and what brands need to do. So where am I going to be positioned within this whole industry? And that's all it is. And I think I love the hobby more today than when I got back in 2019. That's someone saying, I look at Otani prices, you could have bought Otani for $500,000. Am I going to use that as the reason why the hobby sucks today? Is it because I missed out on an opportunity realistically, right? That's what we're trying – I'm just trying to define this. Let's define the two and say, okay, if I'm having a negative experience, which camp am I sitting on? Am I enjoying the hobby or do I hate the hobby? Okay, if I hate the hobby, why do I hate the hobby? And then you realize that it's not really a good reason to hate the hobby because there's other ways that you could enjoy it. And that's all I'm saying. It's like I get it. I get the people, the complaints, and we need that, Clark. We need the complaints because that's the only way we'll get to where we need to go as a whole hobby and a whole collectible space is we need the feedback what sucks because a lot does suck in the hobby. Yeah, and kind of adding to that, but just let's not dwell on it for too long. You know what I mean? Don't make it about your whole life. Complaints about something – because there's always going to be something wrong or something that can be done better and like you're saying, where do we want to spend ultimately our energy on and our time on and trying to come up with solutions rather than just coming up with problems, right? So I agree with you wholeheartedly. One more thing actually that I want to ask you and this is more not as controversial I don't think, but do you think now with the sale of the Pikachu Illustrator, there's a changing of the guard so to speak when we talk about the super high-end cards in the hobby? And what I mean by that is for so long, the top five highest sales in terms of value have always been occupied by either Mickey Mantle, the top 1952, or the Honest Wagner in varying grades. Top five, always those are up there, locked in. But now, I don't know if you've realized, three of the top five publicly known card sales in history have occurred in the last six months and notably, none of them are Mantle or Wagner, right? They are the Pikachu Illustrator, $16.5 million, O'Leary's Jordan-Kobe dual Logo Man autograph card, that's just under $13, and I believe he also owns the Jordan-Lebron dual Logo Man autograph card which is around $10-11 million. So do you think we're going to see more modern cards, these like one-of-one rare scarce cards kind of pretty much take over the top five unless, you know, we see one of these rare vintage Mantle or Wagner show up again? I think a lot more people are going to cash out on the vintage stuff because I think that price has exploded like this is generational wealth that, you know, if you've been holding this is kind of like, okay, now it's considering cash out because they're becoming liquid. 10 years ago, you couldn't sell this like you'd have to go auction obviously, that's the best way but people aren't looking for it. Now you have a whole, you know, different level of clientele looking at sports memorabilia. So if you're a seller and you've been holding, I think this is the time where you're like thinking of cashing out. So I think we haven't seen and the only reason why the Pikachu stands out is because we never really seen those type of sales within non-sports cards. We've seen and seen hints of it in the baseball and basketball side, especially the baseball vintage side, but those big grills have never sold. So PSA 10 Mickey Mantle has never sold. We can only assume that that's a 30 to $50 million card, whatever it is, none has sold. So just because it sold, it doesn't mean that the value isn't there because I think 30 million liquid is easy nowadays for that 52 Mantle PSA 10, right? So for me, it's like, yeah, officially we haven't seen those sales yet, but they're coming 100%. They are coming and that Pikachu is just a sign of it's happening in other areas because the marketplace now sees it as that and that's the key part. It is the marketplace and this is the value justification. Is the value there? I don't know. To me personally, it's not there or I'm not in play because I don't have a $50 million liquid budget, but to someone that does, all you need is two people to agree that their values there and they have the money and that's all it takes in a market that's massive, massive, massive. Yeah. Yeah. And I'll just add too, I agree with you. I think once the vintage starts to show up, they'll kind of take over the top five highest sales again. And I think the more modern one of ones are going to be not as relevant. You know what I mean? Like people are going to say like another one of one, you know, and so that it's going to start to devalue some of the existing one of ones. So what you're seeing, Mark, it could be same thing. We could see this all as a boom. It's been a full market correction of what true value is. And I know this sounds insane because it's like, there's no way it's worth that much. What if it was worth that much? Because even the super fractals that people overpaid, the modern cards at $4 million, they're going to correct. Maybe they're not 4 million now or whatever the super fractal was. Maybe the true value now shows as it's a $1 million card or now it's a 300. So the marketplace is actually correcting over the span of the last 50 years because it was all over the place. It wasn't regulated. It could be worth whatever it was. But now that you have institutional money and you have more serious buyers at the higher end, it's solidifying value from what is the value from a true standpoint. Because you would have to take the highest tier of the marketplace as the cornerstone of value because they're buying it based on supply demand and then everything else follows for that. So when Jeremy Lee was talking about, you know, real, real money in the in the mid tier, there is a lot of truth to that because that's what people value or they use their own money to say this is worth more than what it is. And you get the loss depending on what happens in basketball or baseball. And those are the fundamentals of what happens on a day to day basis, right? So for me, it's, it's, yeah, it's correcting the whole marketplace is really correcting and we're not seeing that true correction yet because maybe the vintage super rare are still undervalued, right? Why else would Kevin O'Leary say that 50 million? The only reason why someone would purchase that is because it's that scarce and it's a status symbol and the value is there, meaning they justify secondly that in the future, in 10, 15, 100 years, that's going to be cheap. Right. Yeah, that's totally what he's banking on. Absolutely. Great way to end the segment. What an exciting time to be in the hobby. This is why our podcast still exists because it's always changing and there's always something to talk about. All right, let's move on to our next segment. It's over under. All right, so since we're talking about super high end cards and all this value going up and up and, and you know, whenever correct, we'll see. But today's over under number is a hundred thousand. All right. We're speaking six figures and all of these sales that I'm going to mention to you right now have happened in the last month. Okay. So I've got four cards and you tell me if it's over under a hundred thousand. First one, the 2018 Bowman Chrome blue refractor numbered to 150 rookie autograph card batting stance of, you know who I'm talking about, Shohei Otani graded a PSA nine mint condition. Wow. PSA nine. That's crazy. Over under six figures, a hundred K. I haven't followed like Otani's high end prices like lately. I don't see it over a hundred K. Like if it was a PSA 10, I get it. I would value. I didn't, I don't know. I would value that. If somebody paid a hundred grand for PSA 10, I'd be like, yeah, it kind of makes sense. PSA nine set sounds a little excessive to me. So I'm going to say it's under, it's under 90,000 though. Not by much. 90,000. It's getting, I would say like max 75 K card. Like I get it, but that's, I don't see it going down though. I don't see it going down to 75. And that's what we're saying. What we're seeing is an actual correction. It's not that the price is going up. It's the price was so low based on what Otani has been doing. And now it, did he do enough to solidify it? So as a new base, yes. All right. Okay. Next one. We talked about Pokemon already. 1999 Pokemon base set first edition, Blastoise hollow. Okay. So one of the key characters, Blastoise, and this was pulled during that Logan Paul break. And when the, when, you know, when the Pikachu illustrator was being auctioned off, they're also breaking the first edition boxes. So they actually pulled it out of that same night and it was already great at a PSA 10 already over, under, I don't know how they got as great as so quick. Well, they probably paid the $50,000 upcharge. So over a hundred thousand. Man, I'm, I'm a big guy on marketing eyes. I think marketing actually works. And like I said, if it was just a private collector that did it and you know what I mean? But I'm going to say it's over because there's so many eyes on it. Some, some guy paid over a hundred K Logan Paul, love him or hate him. He's a great marketer. And you're right at $138,880. Crazy. Crazy. Yeah. I would, I would have waited for a regular auction price instead of going on the heels of the Logan Paul premium. Yeah, exactly. All right. Two more. The 2023, 24 Panini prism, DECA black prism, which is a one of one of Luka Doncic and the greatest PSA 9. 2023? Yes. It's not non-rookie year, but it is a black prism, one of one for Luka Doncic's PSA 9. What am I missing here? Clark? This is like a trick question. Why is this card in there? You're saying it's obviously under, it has to be under, but I'm, that's what I'm saying. It's only on here cause it's over, which is, I don't see, I gotta say under it's under. There's no way. There's no way, no way you think I'm playing reverse psychology. You're right under, but it's 91,500. Do you have a picture of this card? What's so special about this card? It's a black prism, one of one. It doesn't matter. It's not even like, why, why specifically, is it LA Lakers uniform? It is a, no, it's a, it's gotta be Dallas still, right? It is a Dallas Mavericks uniform. So what, what's, what's, why this card? What would you value his second year tops Chrome or sorry, it's a prison black, you know, the 20, yeah, I don't know, but you know, what's funny, that's, that's exactly what you're asking are the comments, the same comments I'm seeing, it's like, am I missing something here? But someone paid 91,500 for this 2023 prison DECA. Maybe they thought it was the rookie and they made a mistake. And here's the other side to this, guys. It's not all a and you know what, if Luca ends up being Luca, maybe one day, but there's another side to all these 15, 20, $30 million sales that we're talking about. There's also downside doesn't mean you're always going to win. And in this case, I don't think that card is worth nearly even close to that. Like we're and that's the thing. It's I think I'd rather have the 2019 like second year. I could see that as okay, 91,000. Okay, I could see that because we're saying is the is the is the 2018 black, a million dollar card. Right. So I could see. kind of that 2023 that image sucks like again, who who Gets the approval on these images like that is insane Okay, it looks like he's driving down the lane, but he's dribbling You know, that's a terrible image it's a terrible image it's not worth 91,000 I agree with you It is close to the 100k mark, okay last one back to Otani, I Actually bought a lot of these not a lot. I bought ten of these tops now cards the 2025 tops now To try to get that one of one hit of the game for the ages I don't know if you remember it three home run night ten strikeout Otani night the tops now made a card of it and we're all chasing that one of one BGS 9 Auto I Believe it was let me just double-check because that will have to be off. It has to be right has to be But then we we just made fun of this deck of black prism being so close to a hundred You know what It's not an auto. It's just a one-of-one tops chrome super fractor. Yeah, super fractor Non-auto BGS 9 see I could justify this over the Luka Even for non-auto, I guess I don't think it's worth that much but like I would be more comfortable if I if if I got that card Over the Luka. I wouldn't be as worried but it's still overpriced. I I gotta say it's under it's a non-auto Doesn't make any sense Doesn't make any sense under You almost did the sweep. It's sold for a hundred four thousand nine hundred twenty dollars We're in a crazy time in the hobby. Hey, sometimes they say you gotta overpay and It's an underpaid price in in the futures eyes. So hey, maybe they're seeing something. I don't see but Yep Okay, let's finish our show with our regular weekly segment we call pick one and I'm gonna start off because we Already already mentioned these two cards and I feel like this is gonna be a quick one But the two Otani's I just mentioned in our over-under segment which one would you rather have the $90,000 blue refractor rookie auto batting stance PSA 9 or the one-of-one 2025 tops now You don't even have to you don't have to mention this it's insanity I cannot justify I Cannot justify the non-auto At a hundred K in the first place. I could justify the blue Auto at 100 K any day I see it I think it's still gonna go up if Ohtani does Ohtani things and it's all relative to obviously Ohtani I don't think he's gonna stop anytime soon, but the the blue refractor auto is the only answer here at this point like I would only see Me purchasing that number one the one-on-one super fractor if I had every single Ohtani That I wanted in my collection and I was bored and I'm like I'm I'm the most diehard Ohtani collector and I'm fighting for the best Ohtani collection There is on the face of this planet Only then only then I say, okay makes sense. This guy has every single So that's why but yeah, it's a no-brainer Yeah, I just said this to make a point a hundred percent agree with you And I would love to talk to the person who bought that hundred four thousand tops now, maybe he is Maybe he's like, you know what? Yeah, I do. Yeah, I already got the blue refractor. Okay in the PSA 10. Come on That's it Like then, you know what for that guy makes total sense. It's all good for you yeah, and that's why it's all perspective because right I some right, you know what I sometimes like I Feel is like, okay. This is super valuable. I don't care what anybody thinks It's a it's a very meaningful card. I want this card and I will overpay for it and it's gonna stay in my PC So and that's the thing $90,000 a lot of money, but maybe it's not that's the whole thing to somebody it's not and Exactly, right. It's like for us buying a $900 card You know, I'm saying, you know what? I love it. I just love it. It's like will buying like a Kaboom that's unlicensed and it's like but he did really well. That's the thing. Mm-hmm on the caboose. Oh Man that's hilarious. I'm gonna put a poll out there I think that's gonna be lopsided just to just to prove a point that right now for regular Collectors like you and me the choice is obvious, but this should be a lopsided answer and speaking of polls We just did one for the one that you're ranting about the last two pockets episodes You're right, man. More people care that the Jersey number doesn't match the regular number of that player It was a 50 like now I get seven to forty percent. Yeah Clark you're gonna jump the bandwagon now now that it's planted in your mind I'm gonna be like, wait a minute. This rookie card looks like his minor league like a minor league card It's not it's like, you know, what rookie car. No, no, no, no some people one person said this makes it more unique So I want it more. I'm just saying there's a different perspective out there. Okay, I'm like I can see that point as well All right, what's your pick one to finish off the show my pick one is you know, we're going let's deflate back to reality Where you know, even back then like $500 was a lot of money. I still remember our conversations remember Starting it's like The good old days, yeah good old days, so I'm sticking with the $500 budget and recently in the last few days I'm big on Francisco Lindor. I think he's one of the underrated Kind of like moopy bets I would say but even more underrated I think he still has a good five six years and he's a future Hall of Famer. No doubt in my mind he's a 80 plus war type when it's all said and done and to be a middle infielder and be in that category is absolutely elite top-tier Hall of Fame But his Bowman chrome auto PSA 9 last sold for 357 bucks and then and then his A BGS 9 5 with the auto 9 sold for 450. So this was in the last couple days So I'm thinking a PSA 9 to a BGS 9 5 is under 500 bucks. Would you rather buy that? Or a 2018 tops heritage chrome refractor PSA 10 So number two, whatever is 573 or whatever. Yeah Juan Soto sold for 475 bucks 2018 2018 his rookie his rookie refractor chrome heritage I mean solid card, you know We said this before I said this early when Ohtani's cards were going up Yeah, this is a deal and I think at the time I was like five to six hundred raw if you look at heritage refractor Otani prices insane Yeah, so that's why I just threw it out there. I Agree with you about Lindor just being a future Hall of Famer Actually, I just read a news article where someone asked Bo Bichette his new teammate for the for the Mets Like how's he feel to move over to third base? And you know what Bichette said? He's like, oh, it's easy when you have a guy named Lindor playing shortstop, you know You just give him the respect and he's a future Hall of Famer, you know, and so it's like yeah easy move, right? So You know everyone respects him in the game Hardcore hobbyists kind of like like you said Mookie Betts just But still no hobby love and I think Juan Soto does get the hobby love and I like that. It's numbered I like I have a personal bias. I love the tops chrome heritage Look, and I think it's one of those like underrated cards, too So that combined with Juan Soto the player easy choice for me Really an easy choice, huh? Easy and what the the base rig is not numbered, right? You're talking about the just the base base auto. Yeah, and I'm just saying any colored Which is so tough to even come across because I think all indoor holders agree that they would never sell their colored Lindor for today's prices or whatever comps are because it's just not worth it right because It's like why am I selling this when I know that? Compared to all these all up the Hall of Famers that his prices are low So I think it's it's a waiting period but we don't know when that is either right and I think that's your point that you're Making the values definitely justifiable But it might be 500 bucks next year and the year after that and then you're after that but the Juan Soto Could potentially move up or will we see price correction even on the Lindor where maybe it's You know a couple grand goes up you think oh, wow. Okay. I don't know I To me, it's like we don't know in this marketplace, but that's my whole point What I'm seeing from the high-end marketplace is all price correction. So what? Institutional value thinks that it's true value and it's cheap. That's what's happening So my whole thing is it follows suit eventually and that's what everybody we always say Oh, we're not gonna buy and then until it moves we're like, oh I should have bought it. Yeah. Yeah, I think it's one of those so I'm there Lindor and it would be more of a Long term cycle because I get it if it was I'm done with the short term cycles, I think You know, like I I think I am like I like for me. I enjoy I enjoy both. I love making a profit but the focus stops I Feel like and then the focus gets too driven on Oh, I want to make this look or I want to sell it at this price instead of just focusing on long-term You know what? I knew this was a goodbye two years ago and All that flipping I could have done to have cash. Yeah, but yeah I still have the value within the cards that I truly believe in so for me It's long-term cycles that I'm starting to like really say I enjoy the collecting more that way Yeah, and that's part of the reason why like I know the no-name Well, Tony that I keep on bringing up is like that would be an example. It's like, you know, what like for 250 bucks. I Keep this in my collection. It's so rare that people aren't even gonna see this in anybody's collection So why not build up that collection? So in that sense, I'm starting to cater my 1v1s towards that too Where it's like I would normally pick Soto just like you but I'm starting to move On to that line of thinking more so I'm gonna pick the lid dude, I totally get it and I think you know what? I think it's because you and I are both busy. So like You know, the flip life is a grind like it's fun, but it's a grind. You know, I mean, it's like you get a monitor prices I Just say I'm the I'm the king flipper. Like that's what I would do. Yeah like during covert times It was awesome. You know, what else what else are we gonna do look for cards to flip and it's easy to do Yeah, so I think I get you I like doing long-term more long-term flips too because I'm just so busy buy one I love hold it look at it every day and then you know when the right price comes along flip it then but But yeah Short-term flips are still fun though. I like to do both Whenever I can All right, thanks guys for tuning in to another episode of Carson when we appreciate you guys And if you haven't given us five stars if you enjoyed this episode, we would definitely appreciate that as well I'll have a brand new episode for you next week. Talk to you then. Bye Hey, thanks for listening to cards to the moon We'd really appreciate you subscribing to our podcast wherever you listen to your podcast And you can also connect with each of us on instagram at five card guys or you can follow young at Integrity sports cards or John at trade you at recess. You can also check us out at five card guys calm Thanks again, and hope to connect soon