Rookie Royalty Dutch Auction Format The Way Of The Future For High-End Sets?; Fanatics Fest All-Access Special Expectations; Buy Or Sell MLB Edition

You're listening to Cards to the Moon, a podcast about trading cards from both a collector and investor perspective. We hope you'll stick around for the ride as we take a deep dive into the state of the hobby, share some hot takes, hopefully some useful advice and fun stories along the way. Hey guys, welcome back to Cards to the Moon. This is episode 301 and my name is Clark from 5cardguys.com and 5cardguys on Instagram, YouTube and on Facebook. Co-hosting with me as usual is Hyung who is at ChoHyung on IG and YouTube. And John's away on vacation this week, but hopefully he'll join us again later this month. All right, off the top, if you weren't at Fanatics Fest, first go listen to our previous podcast episode where I sat down with Brent Ware who is at DeepValueInvestor and Paul Hickey who's the host of the Sports Card Strategy Show. Yeah, I met them in person at Fanatics Fest and we talked about the big event that just happened last month now as well as a whole bunch of hobby topics. So yeah, I'll put the links in the show notes below. But if you want to see all the action of the second and much bigger Fanatics Fest, there is a one-hour special on ESPN that will be available to stream, I believe, by the time this episode airs and the exact date is July 7th. The trailer though is already out for you to watch on YouTube and I'll include that link as well in the show notes. But personally, I think it'll be fun to watch for those who went to the event to relive some of the cool moments, right? But Hyung, for you and anyone that didn't go to the event, the question is, do you think that this is something you would be interested in watching? 100%. I think, well one, I think just in general, bringing awareness to the hobby is on a massive scale here. ESPN obviously is a massive sports network, so Ruben's playing the game there, right? I'm getting in front of the generic audience, but on top of that, I think we rely on hobby influencers to kind of bring that content. So I think from that standpoint, it's cool seeing kind of like a produced version. Because for me, it's like I said, it's not necessarily, oh, I could get the stuff I missed from I think our hobby influencers because they do a good job with like really bringing the detail on what you want. Whereas this is more a generic space of potentially marketing the event. And also, I guess fanatics as a whole, because a lot of people still don't know fanatics even though they're growing rapidly in the sports community, sports cards community. So I think that's going to definitely help the hobby. And it ties into everything we talk about on the show in the overall perspective. When you think about 10Xing the hobby, I know that's such a negative stigma of how are you going to 10X the hobby? Are you going to increase print run? There's a lot of variables here we're talking about. So these are one of them that I see as very strategic, as well as valuable to just even the hobbyists. I'm definitely going to take a look because it also positions me in place of what the big boys are doing so that I could now apply it as a content creator myself or a media company myself. That's what we're trying to do. So yeah, overall good. Overall I have no complaints. And again, it's eyes on the hobby. For sure. I mean, you and I and even John, we tend to agree when it comes to marketing the hobby that what fanatics is doing is all good. And the more eyeballs, the better, especially during this growth phase of the hobby. But I like what you said about, if you're one of those hardcore hobbyists that want to see the transactions and that side of the thing, it's already up on YouTube from all the influencers and on social media, like you mentioned, Instagram. We probably saw all the same clips by this time. So this is probably not for you, but for the general hobbyists or for people just looking to dabble into it now, and even for the casual sports fans, which Fanatics Fest also catered to at the big event, this is just right down their alley. And what I like about what Fanatics is doing is that they see that they were able to get all these big A-list celebrities, A-list superstar athletes. It's a no-brainer to film and document and then produce it and show the world what happened at Fanatics Fest. And then this is a great, as you also mentioned, a great marketing play. And next year, I actually didn't put this in the show notes, but there's a rumor that Fanatics Fest is going to San Diego in December. I don't know if you saw that. I didn't see that, yeah. So I think the rumor came about when, I can't remember what San Diego website put up on their calendar events, Fanatics Fest 2025 in December, I believe 12 to 14. So I don't know. Maybe there's a second one, but I feel like it's reminiscent of how they tried to do another quick one in Orlando and that didn't pan out. So I'm not sure if December is a long enough lead time to have a big event in the West Coast. But anyway, that's something we could discuss later once those rumors- San Diego is a lovely, lovely, lovely city. But they choose all the high-priced cities like New York City and then San Diego. I don't know if you've been to San Diego, but you're spending like $7.50 on a bag of chips. It's pretty expensive there. It can't be more expensive than New York, right? I think it got New York beat. Really? Yeah, just in general. General living. Maybe not the restaurant life, but I think in general, cost of living might be just as high. I've got to check out hotel prices. Yeah, that's why. Orlando would have been perfect because you got, well, at least for the East Coast people because it makes sense for us because you're flying south, direct south, so it's cheaper. Yeah, but anyway, yeah, I have been to San Diego a long time ago. I went to the zoo there when I was a kid, but it's a, like you said, beautiful place. Beaches are lovely. So that's confirmed, San Diego? No, no, no. This is still a rumor. Nothing confirmed, but if it is confirmed, we'll definitely talk about it on this podcast. But yeah, going back to what we were saying, I'm looking forward to it, July 7th, just to see what it was like. And I wouldn't be surprised, you know, next year, what we do know is that it's way more likely that we'll have the third Fanatics Fest in New York City next summer. And something like this, you know, going from 70k attendees to 125k, like what's next? It's going to be packed and you know, can you imagine a scenario where maybe in New York City, it's hard to find a comparable sized venue, but adding another day, right? I think some people are asking for that because the national is what, five days versus three days of Fanatics Fest. So there's room to grow that way as well, just adding another day for the demand if it's there. So we'll see. For sure. And I think tying this together to what I noticed about like even my collecting habits, like even though there might be, let's just say money making opportunity in a specific like sports card or type of, you know, sport, I think the more you become interested in, I guess, what you're collecting or investing in, you'll notice that you start being interested in that. And I think that's what Fanatics is doing at the kind of like, at the base level is as a collector, even like you experiencing kind of all this, it's bringing a different level of experience, I think, because before it was you as a collector and the superstars somewhere on TV, where there's a huge gap. But then if you could bridge that gap, then it becomes something I think even the veteran hobbyist, if they're open minded, they could experience the hobby in a totally different way. Right. And I think that's where I'm very interested in because when I go collect something, and you're the same way, you experience Gary Vee, for instance, in person where that was such a cool experience for you, you're going to be and have a bias towards that, which is great, because now you're more all in on a certain like the friends or, or whatever it is, right. So I think that's what Fanatics understands really well, and what they're really executing at that core foundational level. So like, to me, it's, it's great to experience it if you allow it to. Yeah, awesome point. Awesome. But I mean, like, it's, it's one of the things that fans wanted for a long time, right, to get closer to the stars. And it's just funny how sports cards is that vehicle for so many people now to connect these stars to the fans, right? So yeah, it's, it's amazing. And sports cards and memorabilia, like how many more clips have I seen even in the past year alone, where, you know, a collector is able to meet a player right on the field because they're making a trade with that player. For sure. You know, it's, it's, it's not, it's becoming a little bit more common now, you know, just to see those kinds of things, which is kind of cool. So so yeah, no, it's, it's great. And I agree with you. Just be a little bit more open minded. All right. Just be open minded. Okay, let's move on to hobby headlines. All right. So if you're on social media and you're into the hobby, other than Fanatics Fest, no doubt the algorithm has been showing you the Rookie Royalty set that's being promoted heavily. And and if you don't know what the Rookie Royalty set is about, it's it just includes two cards. Okay. And it'll include either an autograph of Caitlin Clark or Angel Reese from one of the higher end sets like Immaculate, Flawless, or NT, National Treasures. As well, the other card will be either a Downtown or Kaboom insert. Okay. And it'll feature one of the 12 WNBA rookies this past year, which could also be Clark and Reese. Now one of the interesting things about the set is how it was sold, which was by a Dutch auction. And if you're not familiar with how a Dutch auction works, it's essentially the reverse of a normal auction. So you start off with the highest bid instead of the lowest bid at zero for a regular auction, but you start off with the highest bid and then it incrementally goes down every five minutes in this case for the Rookie Royalty set, but you could set whatever time interval until it either hits the floor price that's predetermined or the product is completely sold out. You could bid at any point in that Dutch auction period, starting from, get ready, the Rookie Royalty set. It started from the high bid of $30,000, which of course grabbed all the headlines. The floor price was set at $3,000. So every five minutes it went down from $30,000 to $25,000. I don't know what the price interval gap was, but spoiler alert, the product sold out at the $3,000 price. So there were some available that hit the floor and when it did hit the floor, it sold out pretty quickly, right? So it looks like the $3,000 was the going price, but at the same time, Panini won't release any of the info like when did certain buyers buy at what price. So we don't know that information, but we do know that there are some available at $3,000 and then it sold out quickly after that. So first, Hyung, two questions to start. If you were interested in this set, right, this Rookie Royalty set with all the hype surrounding it, when do you think you would have bid, okay? And how sick would you feel if you had bid at close to $30,000 and then you saw that a few actually sold at $3,000? Yeah, I don't know necessarily what to think about this because it's so different than what we're used to talking about with when Panini does things versus Fanatics and that's why it's like no association with Fanatics or Panini itself. But to me overall, one, it's hard to kind of put myself in that shoe because I'm not a WNBA collector, but I would say, okay, in general, if it was basketball, you know, NT products, of course it interests me. And Dutch auctions do work well in determining what true value is, especially when you have a high supply or sorry, a high demand product that's limited supply. But this is the gripe I have about this and not to gripe Panini. If Fanatics did it, I would gripe them too. What they're essentially doing in the bigger picture is they're totally cutting out the middleman, which was us. So it's like they're making initial profit now off of things that they never really did because when it was released at 500 bucks a box or whatever, it was whenever it sold out. So to me, it seems like, okay, how can Panini get into the marketplace and get the profit early? And then the secondary scalpers or flippers are essentially making a smaller mark. That's what essentially it sounds like, right? to me, whether that's like strategic on their end, because they're like, we got to be creative to find. by different revenue streams, but that's something to be aware of when the manufacturer starts making the money off the secondary market too, which it seems like that's what Panini's doing. Because if you now calculate, okay, if they released NT as a regular set before and not in this format, what was their profitability in that whole set? And then they're probably recalculating this, how much did they make within seconds? They're tapping into that secondary market where they're also profiting way more than they normally had it been original set. And obviously the secondary collectors or the flippers are the ones who aren't waiting in line at 500 bucks a box or $1,000 a box. And then it goes bonkers. So I feel like it's almost like a control mechanism from the manufacturer itself, which is dangerous in itself if you kind of think about it. But going back to now the collectability of it, as a collector, will I do better than just buying a box? I think it 100% betters your chance at not skunking. There's somewhat of a more, I guess less of a gamble per dollar, I would say. But buy-in is very expensive, right? Like you could easily spend $3,000 and get 1,500 bucks back, right? But I don't think it's gonna be like a box where you get like 50 bucks back. You see what I mean? So I think I don't mind it from a collector standpoint because I think it does leverage your risk somewhat. But then again, there's so many different parts to it with different intentions that I can't say I like it or I dislike it because there's so many parts that you could say you like and dislike, I guess. Yeah, I mean, there's so many components to this, right? And I think what you said makes sense. But at the same time, it depends on what set we're talking about. Like I don't think there'll ever be a Dutch auction format for regular basketball or Bowman baseball. You know what I mean? Like things that cost less than 1,000 per hobby box. Like it doesn't make sense to do it that way, right? But for ultra high-end sets, maybe it is because really the primary customer is who? I'm guessing it's the breakers that can only afford these multi-thousand dollar hobby boxes or these, it's not even a hobby box. It's just a two-card set, right? And you're guaranteed one kind of hit. And I'm gonna come back to what you said about, you probably won't end up with a $50 card. WNBA, you might. It could be a skunk. Yeah, but that's why. It's WNBA at the end of the day. And it's like, if you look at their market, how does it look, right? So that's the only tricky part is what you're buying into and is it actually worth that much at the end of the day. Right, and you know, if you get a Kaitlyn Clark, you're probably fine as long as you didn't buy at the $30,000 bidding point. But yeah, like, you know, the alternative is, like, if I asked you, which would you have preferred? The Victor WNBA, remember the mosaic set that came out? Yeah. You get five cards, two autos, and one of them is a patch. Right. If you remember, I believe that cost $8,000 per box. Right. It's sold out, but it's not worth 8,000 anymore. Not a chance. If they did it in a Dutch auction format, and I don't know if they would price the floor at 8,000 or even lower just to get interest going. Like what, I don't know. Which way would you have preferred to try to get one of those boxes? If it was a WNBA mosaic set, do you know what I mean? Yeah, I would definitely be more interested in that just because I have a bias of my collectability and what I believe in. But like, it's hard to compare it because it's like, I don't compare NBA and WNBA as the same collectability, for instance. I have zero interest in collecting Kaitlyn Clark. Now other people might like that, so they're gonna have a different bias at the end of the day, right? So yeah, it's a tough one for me, but I would probably go mosaic, to be honest. Like I would probably be more interested in that because I just see the current upside of that. Now, long-term, I think both are traps regardless. If you look at super, super long-term, it's a coin flip. You just never know what's gonna happen and like what type of player Wemby becomes, right? We might think it's ridiculous now, which it was. We called, we said it's gonna drop off. Mosaic was gonna drop off and it's common, but as Wemby continues his career, how are those gonna affect prices based on supply and demand, right? That's the, I think, question every investor has when they're looking at it from a financial perspective. But then we, again, look at current market cycles and we make it black and white that, okay, these are worthless now because they're overpriced. Not necessarily, it's obviously overpriced at release and then we see the market crash and correct and then it becomes more of a, okay, what does the market believe that these cards are actually worth? And then as the player progresses in his career, that's when you either go up or down in terms of your collectability. But I just think it's so hard to compare that. And does, is the, I guess, Topps Chrome, they don't have licensing for WNBA or they do? That's a good question. Right now they don't, obviously, that's still with Panini, but yeah, I'm not sure if there's a separate one for WNBA. So the WNBA would be licensed? Yes, yes. Yeah, it's licensed, right? It would be, yep. Yeah, so I think this is Panini's way of milking every single dollar out of it because how else are you gonna, you don't have licensing for anything else so it's not gonna be as valuable in other sports. So WNBA, what you have, this is a great way from a business side of things because I think Panini did well overall. Yeah, but going back to, not just whether you would choose Mosaic or the WNBA set, but if you, I think I would be aligned with you that I would choose the WNBA Mosaic, but do you have a preference on how it would have been sold, whether via Dutch auction or at a set price? Yeah. Dutch auctions are tough too. I think it makes sense on certain sets and I think it could have worked, but yeah, I think the regular, how did the Mosaic set go? It's just, you take a number and if you're lucky enough, you win that? It might've been done EQL. I'm gonna make a correction because I was looking for what prices are going for now and it's not Mosaic, it's Mercury, the Mercury set. Right, Mosaic is the broke prism set. Mercury, yeah. But I remember the M. It's Mercury, that's a correction. But yeah, I think it was, it might've been EQL, like you know how they do a lot of these virtual drawing systems, yeah. Yeah, and that was the difference between Fanatics and Panini, right? So I think if Fanatics did that, like a Dutch auction, I think it would have not necessarily affected the brand in a positive way. I think the way they're doing it, they have to kind of configure it because like I said, if I am right in terms of why Panini did it and in terms of profitability, it was way more profitable for Panini, you don't wanna do that with Top's Current. You don't wanna start dipping into that secondary market and start pissing off people, right? So I think it's done the right way, the way Fanatics is doing rather than Panini. Yeah, that's fair. A secondary question I had for you is that, because this kind of reminds, and a lot of other people have, sorry, a lot of other collectors have already said this, but because it can include a hit from either the Immaculate set or Flawless or NT, it's kind of like a more expensive version of Chronicles, if you're aware of Panini Chronicles. Like different sets are included and you could receive one of these hits. So the natural question is that, if they continue to do these Dutch auctions for these higher end hits and higher end sets, what does it do for like the regular Immaculate hobby boxes or the regular Flawless or NT boxes? Do you just get rid of those or do you kind of just do it in this Chronicles type way where you kind of melt everything in and then you just do a Dutch auction? Do you know what I mean? That's one of the issues is that, that like, what is that gonna do? And you look back, it's like, okay, why are they doing this? And what is it gonna do? Because what do you get in this Dutch auction like if you don't get an NT or Flawless? Like what do you get? So I think you're guaranteed, so that's the thing, you're guaranteed, one of those hits from either Reese or Clark, an NT Flawless or Immaculate, one of those higher end ones, and then you get a Kaboom or Downtown from one of the 12 other WMEA rookies. So it seems like you just increase print run, so it doesn't necessarily affect the NT and Flawless in bunches, maybe you have those as chase cards and then you mass produce these Kabooms or Downtown cards. So like I said, I don't think it's a good business strategy, I don't know in depth what Panini's dealing with, but it doesn't make sense to me to do it other than become profitable. It's a profit move, that's all I could see it as, because like I said, regular collectors would just go to NT and Flawless and they're lining up to purchase it. So for me, it's another way to create revenue for Panini and yeah, I just think it will definitely not affect, they probably did it so it doesn't affect it as much, but you're definitely pulling cards from that set into a totally new kind of like format, right? So. Yeah, and like you're saying, I guess they increase print run, so you could get those RPAs from the regular NT or Flawless or Immaculate whenever those come out. So I don't know if you just wait for those, obviously the odds will be much lower to get one of those hits because it is from a regular set. So it kind of reminds me as we're kind of talking about this out loud of how Bowman Chrome has the HTA sets, you get those three autos and that's it, or you could get the regular hobby or jumble boxes with all the base and parallel cards, but you do get a few autos in it as well and those are generally cheaper, but maybe that's how Panini's thinking about it. I don't know. It seems like it's like mystery, a hybrid of mystery packs too. Like, you know what I mean? They're implementing mystery packs and they're the ones selling the mystery packs, but they're the one who's controlling the supply. That's what I, I think that's why I'm such against it. It's like, they're double dipping essentially where this used to be a breaker, a breaker would do that or somebody else would do that, right? So that's why I'm, it's interesting. It's not saying it's right or wrong, but that's the way I see it, yeah. Yeah, you know, time will tell whether it's a good strategy because if it is, and like you said, if Panini profited off of this, guess what? We're going to see this Dutch auction format again, no doubt, you know? Well, they need to profit, right? They need, otherwise they're going to be gone. They need to profit somehow. Oh man, Panini and Beckett. We just, yeah. Times have, you know, this is like everything else in this life, you know, things change quickly, things evolve. It's crazy. You could be on top one moment and you're at the bottom of the barrel. 2019, Panini was the king of this world. Silver prisms, oh, that's all people wanted, you know, even silver prisms. And now they're on the verge of collapse, but yeah, that's how it goes in life and in the hobby. All right, if you have anything to say about this topic, you can always DM us at CardsToTheMoon on IG and we'll be happy to read them in a future episode. All right, let's go on to our next segment called Buy or Sell. All right, we haven't done this in a while, but you know, this is when I'm going to give you five players and then you tell me if you would buy more of this player, okay? I'm assuming that you have this player and you're gonna double down essentially, or if you would sell right now, okay? So this is one of our older segments, but we're going back to it. And I thought it'd be good because it is baseball themed, which is what we love to talk about on this podcast, and we're approaching the all-star game, so it's a good halfway point to reflect on some of these players. All right, first one. If I asked you, I'm sure you would know, Hyung, because you're really into baseball, but I'm sure if you're a casual baseball fan, you might be surprised at the answer of this question I'm about to ask. Which major leaguer is leading the league in home runs and RBIs? And it's not Aaron Judge, it's not Shoei Otani. Who is it? Jeez, I should know this. Home run and RBIs. It has to be Cal Rowley. It is Cal Rowley, Seattle Mariners catcher. 33 homers as of this recording, 71 rubies, two more than Aaron Judge, and nine stolen bases to add on top of that. More surprising to me because I've been, you know Not following Cal Raleigh, but you know, I always tend to get his cards So I'm like, oh how good is he as a catcher and I've he's always been a high power guy But a very low average, right? That's kind of He's paying 272 this season Yeah, even even the average he's bumped up considerably but Cal Raleigh, are you buying or selling? What are you doing? I'm selling You know, I I like Cal Raleigh I've I have some of his You know just parallels that I didn't end up, you know, even consider grading at the time because it wasn't Sought after and now there's there's a boom So I've been waiting for this because Cal Raleigh a few years ago wasn't really collectible. So I'm not I do believe In Cal Raleigh's talent, I think he's bringing another dimension of like almost like a Salvador Perez type Catcher, right? So I think you're gonna get a quality player and I don't think It's bad to necessarily invest in him But I've you got to remember his prices were next to nothing, you know before this season and to me it's the same thing It's like I don't see necessarily future like 350 home runs every single season now don't get me wrong He has enough power and thump in his bat to do that when things click but baseball is very hard. Baseball is something that Consistency is one of the most difficult you look at everybody at Acuna, you know tatties all these Superstars that have huge potential they go through the ups and downs. So I don't see it different with Cal Raleigh He has to be doing this now for the next 10 years For it to be like, okay now he's the real deal. He's 28 years old. You got to remember too. So he's a little older So he's reaching his prime Anyways, so for me, I think it's a great sell period if you do have Cal Raleigh early Now With that said too, there's probably great buying opportunity and we talked about this all the time where there's there's overpriced cards And there's underpriced cards So I think if I'm buying Cal Raleigh, I would play in the underpriced game and the good deals that aren't overhyped But at this time I'm selling as much as I can right now. I Agree Just what Cal Raleigh is so so much of an outlier This is crazy right now and not that he can't continue to do it But if I'm gonna bet, you know, if you look at his 2024 stats, so what I say he had 33 home runs 71 71 RBI's As we approached the all-star game He had 34 home runs total last season and he played pretty much a full season 100 rubies, which is respectable But his average was 220. Yeah, so now he's buying 272 previous year 232 before that 211 and before that in 2021 180 like he's never been a high-average guy But he certainly had power 27 homers 30 34 and now 33 For sure extrapolate that it's a 50 plus home run season for Cal Raleigh Like this is incredible incredible season for Cal Raleigh, but it seems like it's an outlier and for that reason I'm selling as well, too So I was psyched I don't know if you saw my IG reel when I did that hotel rips Of the fanatics fest exclusive blaster box And I hit the Mike Trout swinging for the Stars orange refractor, which I was totally psyched about But my first card that I hit from that pack was a Cal Raleigh relic card and normally I'm like, oh Cal Raleigh again, like I always get Cal Raleigh And now I'm like, oh this could be worth something. Yeah So it's awesome what Cal Raleigh is doing but I am definitely selling all right I got four more next one former catcher, but Just a DH now Cal Schwerber, I have a feeling I know what you're gonna say, but Cal Schwerber 26 homers Approaching the all-star break. So he's in the top 10 58 rubies batting 247 But the reason why I bring Cal Schwerber up is like he's been consistently a power bat and he's been doing it for a while I place for the Phillies which is a pretty big team and if I'm gonna give you numbers I'm like a little surprised at how much power he's had because I kind of take it for granted but 2021 he had 32 homers 2022. He had 46 2023 had 47 2024 last year. He had 38 26 he's on par for 30 probably 40 plus homers this year very consistent The knock on him is what I said about Cal Raleigh other than this Season lower batting average the season that he had 47 home runs. He also batted 197 so Cal Schwerber buying or selling Is this prices prices are up? Good questions, that's so you're considering buying if the price is right, huh? No, no Definitely not. I'm just I'm just wondering if there's there there is a so I mean It's tough because I don't think he had He's gonna have a niche fan base I think I think people like in Philly Might really like him or collectability is there on that side? But I don't I don't see a high demand regardless of what Kyle Schwerber does I don't think he's gonna be a Hall of Fame type type player, but I love I love his presence I love watching him hit, you know I'm a true fan of just his stick his power because he's he reminds me of kind of like fellow Canadian Matt stairs like I Whenever I watch Matt stairs, it was you're just waiting for him to drop a massive massive bomb So Kyle Schwerber kind of fits in that perspective, but from a collectability standpoint, I think you're in a really niche market I think obviously there are plays on Kyle Schwerber because he could he's a guy that could hit 50 and you know People are emotional and they want to collect something about you know about him so I could see it going that way But for me, you know I'm waiting for a sell period if I do have some Kyle Schwerber because I know his market, you know years ago Did not even exist. So like Unloading cards would make sense if the market was moving somewhat, but I'm not too sure about Schwerber's market right now I'll give you a comp his gold first Bowman Chrome gold refractor when he would play for the Cubbies. That's again. He's in his catcher gear You could have got his gold BGS 9.5 10 auto for 400 bucks September of 2024, right? It's selling for 930 now. Yeah, and you know, that's great for whoever Bought like a year ago because I think you you kind of are in that peak area that peak area Right where you did well, and even last year what would have been a gamble? I wouldn't have personally spent 400 bucks on that. But like I said, he looks like a genius now because You know, they took that risk and they doubled up. So you there's there's opportunity everywhere But for me personally, I'm not buying I'm selling Yeah, me too and then next year we're gonna see it's 1800 That's exactly what happens, right You know what in this case, we'd love to be proven wrong players are doing well, you know, I mean Yeah, and it's good because that that's good because there there is collectability in everyone and it depends on who you believe in so if that's the case then, you know, somebody's seen something that I didn't and kudos to you and Vice versa, right? That's that's the way we have our thinking patterns and and our actions towards it Yep, true. All right next one James would we talked about James with in last week's episode and We we talked about how he's as a national I think you saw that stat as a national he's on the same pace as Bryce Harper and Juan Soto when they were on the Nationals as a rookie he hits He's has 22 home runs this season 65 rubies 12 stolen bases, and he's batting a very respectable 283 and the reason why I bring him up is you know, we've seen this story before with other top prospects and rookies Hot start, but like you said even with Cal Raleigh baseball is a very hard game and you'd never know So is this a good time to sell because he's been doing so well right out the gates or are you a longtime believer? James winning are you holding, you know, I you know my answer to James would I think I think if you're gonna If you're gonna bet on someone I like I like betting on James would just because One he has a lot of things going for him. I think You know one he could hit Like I'm not just saying he has power he can hit he has a good understanding of hitting in general same with Juan Soto Bryce Harper all these guys have good approaches. So to me at the hit tool is there the 6-7 body is there? Him being lefty is there Him hitting power and being impactful where he's actually contributing to the team. It's their Longevity is there so there's a lot of things going for James would that I personally like and I told you this in a couple Episodes ago or whenever or a few episodes now that I think James would pricing is very We're like it's it's a pretty good buy opportunity in general based on the type of player he is The only concern is is he gonna go towards the Juan Soto territory or Jordan Alvarez type? Territory right because you look at your Nalva as this guy has You know started a career you like the body side size I think James was gonna be better defensively than Jordan in general But from a hit perspective you got two similar very two similar players So it's it's floating between that it could be anywhere from that Who is it, who did I just say Jordan Alvarez? Even Aaron judge right and Juan Soto somewhere in between the hose where Jordan Alvarez would be the the downside of Collectability and obviously, you know the upside of both Soto and judge So I think there's buying opportunity based off of that now Will he perform? That's always the kicker based on I'm saying this based on performance. So I'm a buy on James wood. Yeah, I I Can't disagree with your points, but I'm selling I'm taking profit with James wood and I think you know with James wood I'm you know, you could have got his first Bowman chrome or prospect auto PSA 10 November of last year for $160 $160 for PSA 10, which is a great great great buy obviously, especially in hindsight and now it just sold for 650 Right just recently. So if I bought it for a hundred something dollars, I'm gonna take the profit maybe invest in another card That's yes, you know, I'm a more of a believer in but if you're a James wood fan This kind of fun period to write it out, right? So that Bowman chrome PSA 10 what like in terms of like Soto Acuna Otani judge What do you think a fair market value is obviously like Otani Bowman chrome's like it's different story But then if you look at like a Cooney or Soto I think that PSA 10 range is two thousand three thousand bucks where that's where I wouldn't say peak But it's like that would be Kind of like a healthy price to sell and then it would retract a bit And then if he becomes that second that superstar for sure in three four years that thing goes like Really high, right? So that's why $100 super cheap if you think about it five four six hundred bucks that to me that's a a solid price where you could take profit or It's it's a healthy buy-in because if if James wood does perform the way I think he's gonna perform I think that could be a $2,000 card Like when the time is right, it's that's a question is when right? So it would be a matter of can I buy this at a leaner price? I just think you'll be waiting for a while. I mean the Nationals are dead last in their division So I'm taking that into consideration as well. Whereas, you know when one Soto was on the Nationals He won a championship for sure pretty early on right? So that's different between Where Soto was and where woods was on the Nationals But yeah to your point the Acuna if you're using that as a comp his PSA 10 first moment Otto's going for about 1,500 right now. So that's dropped a lot. Yeah, I Mean it dropped a lot, but that's because of the 2021 kovat peak, right? It's sold for Almost $6,000 that one point the peak price 2021. Yes, right. So which there are other factors. Yes Yes, that that like let's erase that one and then you know, cuz I remember I bought Acuna before kovat that particular card I bought it for 1,800 and That was crazy. That was like, yo, you're really crazy And then I bought a refractor BGS 10 for like three grand and that was insane, too so Yeah 1,800 you bought around 2019 then that's where it's offering that was that price around that time and then went all the way up to 6k a couple years later and now it's back to 1,500 where it's settling in pretty much right now But yeah, no James would it's an interesting guy. Yeah for sure and I love the all the The hit tools that he has like he's demonstrating that in his rookie season. So that's appealing All right next guy hot start kind of simmered down obviously you can't have a hot start throughout the whole season it's a long game Pete crow Armstrong knew it PCA 21 homers 64 rubies 26 stolen bases batting 268 but most of that was during the first two months of the season What are you doing with PCA? I I I'm selling man. I'm selling I'm selling PCA. I like PCA I I remember I I tell you this all the time that that team with Volpe with junior PCA all these guys CJ Abrams Like these guys are really good baseball players, man These guys are baseball players that I truly believe and I think Pete crow Armstrong is gonna have a phenomenal career with that said Baseball's hard, you know, everybody was Everybody loves hot starts, and that's when you sell. And you're gonna notice, it's like, hey, Pete Crow Armstrong's very good. He's a very good ball player, he's gonna have a very good career. But realistically, he's not a 50 home run hitter. People are talking about, oh, he's on place for 55th. Baseball's hard, okay? The law of averages become very apparent in baseball because you gotta play 162 games in the season and then in 170 days or whatever it is. So law of averages will eventually hit. It doesn't give you, all of a sudden, fluke, you're hitting 350 with 50 home runs and it's just like you're Otani, everybody's Otani. It's like, no. That's where I think the whole marketplace with Pete Crow Armstrong's expectations were because he got off to such a hot start that everybody thought that he was gonna 50-50. I would be happy with him 30-30. That's the type of player he is, and he's a plus defender. He's gonna be a high war guy. Almost like a Bobby Wood Jr., to be honest. But that's what you're gonna get, and this is the difference between Pete Crow Armstrong and Bobby Wood Jr. Bobby Wood Jr. has done it already. He had his breakout season where it's like, damn. Right now, Corbin Carroll, Pete Crow Armstrong, they haven't had their coming out season. That's the difference. To me, will Pete Crow Armstrong have his coming out season? This could be it. Like I said, we're halfway through. Long season. Anything could still happen, so we'll have to see. I'm selling on the hype on PCA, although I like him long-term. If you're in long-term because you like, 100%. He's gonna be a good player. He is a good player, impact player. He's a guy you want on your team. He's a guy you wanna root for. For me, it's a sell, but I do believe in the player. Yeah. I guess the question I have for you is, you could make that same argument with James Wood, right? Hot start, and you sell on that, which is what I'm doing, but what differentiates James Wood with PCA? Because I think James Wood is a 280 to 320 type hitter every year with 40, 50 home runs, and people love that. PCA is a guy that is a speed guy. He's a 20, 15 to 30 home run guy, 30 on that really high end, and it's solid, but it's two different types of players, and for me, James Wood could be a Aaron Judge type guy. He could hit 60. His body allows him to hit 60. That type of potential is there where people who think Pete Crow Armstrong is a 50 home run guy, man, I hope he doesn't become that person because his game will totally change, and I think you're seeing it now. It's averaging out. What you see, the type of player Pete Crow Armstrong could be is 270 to 300 type hitter, 300 plus if he exceeds, and 20 to 30 home runs. That's a solid season for Pete Crow Armstrong. He's gonna steal a bunch of bags, but James Wood might put up 50, right? And to me, it's like I like the mixture of his age as well as his bat compared to Pete Crow Armstrong. I think James Wood is like a Vladdy Soto type bat, whereas PCA, you're looking at Corbin Carroll type player, which I said on the pod in previous episodes, that's what you're getting. Now, will they hit 30 plus home runs? They have the potential. He's gonna do it this year, so that's the difference, yeah. Yeah, I asked you because I already knew the answer, but I wanted you to explain it more thoroughly as you have, but yeah, if you just look at the numbers, it could be deceiving, right? James Wood, 22 home runs. PCA, 21 home runs. RBI, 65 to 64, exactly the same, and in fact, PCA has double the stolen bases as James Wood, so if you just look at the numbers, it's like, oh, wow, PCA's having a much better season, but what you know and what people who are really into baseball prospecting-wise will know, I just looked at simple research right now. PCA, his hit tools or his power grading is between 45 and 50, whereas James Wood was always 60 plus, so it seems like he's overachieving. PCA's overachieving on the power side of things. Speed, he's on par, whereas James Wood is on par with hitting, but then he's added this ability to hit opposite field home runs now, so that gives him the added potential of hitting that 50 home run mark, like you said, right? So, if you're gonna bet on consistency moving forward, it looks like James Wood could keep it up in terms of the power numbers, where PCA probably could keep it up more so on the speed numbers than power. So, yeah, I'm with you. I'm selling on PCA. I'm selling on everyone on this list so far. So, four for four on the sell. Just sell. Yeah, take profit. You know, that's a simple answer. All right, last one. Elie De La Cruz. You know, he's been a hobby darling for a few years now, and if you look at his numbers, it's very respectable. 18 homers, 22 stolen bases, 275 batting average, but you know, like all things in the hobby, when you're not the new shiny thing, like, do you have that star power to keep your values up over the year? You know, what John would like to call it that lull period. Has Elie De La Cruz, is he entering that lull period, and should you sell now, or is it a good time to buy? I think you could do either, but I think because Elie was so anticipated out throughout names like Volpe, you know, same thing. Wanda Franco, same thing. Like, these guys, Jason Dominguez, same thing. Massive, massive amounts of hype. O'Neal Cruz, same thing. Like, the expectation, again, baseball's hard, so expectations become a little distorted. So, the thing with Elie De La Cruz, I've always believed in his talent, and I've said it. Like, I like, like, you know, guys that, you know, have a good frame on him, kind of like Aaron Judge, James Wood. I like the size that Elie has. I think he's erratic at time. I think he's young, and he's immature as a player. So, and to me, those are things that are needed for an immature player to become mature. You have to experience the immaturity of knowing what you're capable of, and know when to pull the trigger and when to not. That becomes with maturity. So, Elie is a superstar. I think he's always been on my list as he's a superstar. Like, I rather him over PCA, for instance. He's more in the James Wood category, where I'm like, Elie can do it both. We just haven't seen his potential because of his immaturity. And with the market of him being so hot as a prospect and expectations of him, you know, doing Acuna-type numbers or, you know, the Tatis-type numbers early on the season, I think that was the expectation, and they haven't been met. So, people call him a flop or a bust. To me, it's insanity. It's like, you don't know baseball if you're calling Volpe a bust, if you're calling Elie de la Cruz a bust. It's way too early to say that a 22-year-old, 23-year-old is a bust. So, for me, Elie seems to be having somewhat of a coming out season. So, I think he's gonna have a really solid season. I don't even think it's his coming out season. So, for me, I don't know what prices are. What's his, do you have a baseline price for something with Elie? So, we're just looking at PSA 10, his first Bowman Pro model, 2022. That's perfect, yeah. So, recent sales, he's come down since last year. He's at 9.50 right now. Sold for 1,300 at the beginning of the season, actually. So, that was a little bit of an April peak. And then, last year, October 2024, he was selling at 5.75. So, he's gone up since last year's point. Right, and I think that's what you're seeing right now, is you've seen the hype and then the correction, and then, kind of like, which way is he gonna go? And he's starting to figure it out this year. He's gonna hit 30 plus, probably steal 30 plus bags, too, right? How many stone bases does he have right now? 22 already. Yeah, so he's gonna 30-30, no problem. Even 40-40 if he has a hot second half. So, to me, if that $500, $2,000 range would be a great buy, I think. And I'm a buy on Eli, actually, yeah, at that price. Yeah, well, it's not 500 now, it's, what is it? It's 9.50, so he's definitely seen a little bit of a bump. 800 last month, so it's kind of volatile, to tell you the truth, this season. But, yeah, you know, I'm actually gonna buy. If there's one guy I'm buying out of this list, Eli De La Cruz, he has that, you know, the, I don't know what factor you call it. Like, the personality, the swag, yes, the swag factor. He definitely has that, right? And I think that matters in the hobby, you know? Like, he could do similar numbers to all the James Wood and PCA types, but he tends to be on the highlight reels because of his swag, you know? And he garners that attention. And I think that grows his fan base, you know, not just from Cincinnati, but, you know, from other markets as well. So, in terms of collectability, I think he has a higher upside. And, you know, like, I think he could come close to Ronald Acuna numbers if he keeps developing his powers. We know his speed's always gonna be there, right? So, yeah, I'mma buy on Eli, for sure. Speaking of Acuna, just one point, the guy's unhuman. Like, he's just, he's ridiculous, too. Just throwing it out there. Like, two ACLs, and it's just like, I'm back, I'm back in a new world. You're back in. Well, it's not that I'm back in. His mindset is so crazy that he's able to kind of like come back from what he's come back and absolutely dominate. Like, to me, it's outstanding. Like, Acuna is like crazy. And that's why you, like, for me, the upside on Acuna was this. He's a superstar. So, Acuna, just because you threw it out there, after two ACLs, like, it's pretty impressive what he's doing. If you're interested, he's hit nine homers this season in 36 games only, four stolen bases, cut ceiling zero times, and he's batting 346 at the moment. With a 1063 OPS, yeah. 1063, yeah, that's right. All right, there you go. That's our Buy Your Style segment. Hope that helps you out. If you're on the fence for any of these players, if you're me, you're selling on all of them except Ellie. And if you're Hyung, you're buying on a couple of these guys. And this is not financial advice. No, not financial advice, it's just our opinion. All right, let's end off our episode with our regular weekly segment we call Pick One. All right, so I don't know if you're gonna continue your trend of who you're gonna choose, but yeah, why don't you start things off for us? You know what it is, until Aaron Judd stops doing Aaron Judd's things, Aaron Judd is a buy, I'm telling you. He's doing ridiculous things, but this is gonna be a little harder for you because I feel like we upped the budget a bit, so I'm not, because I could have went through the Bowman's Best and Top's Finest to look for all these deals. I still like print runs and rare cards, so I'm gonna throw two, I wouldn't say massively priced cards, but they're not cheap. Giving us a budget of $2,000, okay? We're gonna go with, in 2017, card number 287, Top's, so Flagship, we're staying with Flagship. They had an SSP, I even call it an SSSP because I know the print run. Maybe I'll send you the link, but it's, if you Google bat under shoulder, or bat under arm, that's his SSP, okay? I see it, yep. So, a raw one of those, by the way, even earlier this year, raw went for $1,100. Now, the last sold, just recently, last week, was $2,100 for a raw. That's crazy. But the condition looks pretty good. If you zoom in the picture, it's a pretty, pretty clean raw version, which is insane. That sold for $2,100, okay? And just to give you a context, too, there has only been 41 graded by PSA. Wow, okay. So, I'm assuming the print run has to be between 50 and 75, maybe, with some of it being unopened, or some of it being submitted to BGS, okay? So, I'm gonna pair that up with a Top's finest blue wave refractor auto. And this is, they call it Top's finest first autograph. So, technically, it's not the rookie auto. There's a rookie auto, and then there's the first finest auto, which still has the rookie emblem, but it would be considered an insert auto, I would say, more so than a true rookie auto in Top's finest. This is out of 25, though, okay? And it's a BGS nine, auto 10. Sold for $2,100, so $2,075. So, pretty much $2,100, a raw SSSP with a print run of maybe 50, flagship, ungraded, or a Top's finest blue wave refractor first auto, right? Top's finest, out of 25, a BGS nine. I had this, it's so niche, right? Like, both cards. It's very niche, yeah. So, it's one of those things, like, what do I naturally gravitate towards, you know? And I looked at both those cards. I kind of like the Top's, the 2017 SSSP under the bat. That kind of looks cool. I'd never really seen it before until you mentioned it. So, that was cool. But it's paper, it's raw. I don't know how it's gonna grade. Like, all these questions I have. Because it's paper, maybe it won't get a favorable grade. Why is it raw? And I'm thinking of all these things. And you know, my bias towards BGS, just thinking that's just undervalued in general. The 9s, I love making those BGS 9 plays sometimes. If I'm desperate, I'll just crack it out and see what I can get for PSA. So that's an option. But the card itself, it looks pretty sick. I like the Yankees, the old Yankees logo in the background of the Blue Wave, top's finest card, and on-card auto, it looks like it's on-card. You got your RC logo as well. And it's numbered to 25. I mean, there are a few more things that are slanting me towards the top's finest first autographed Blue Wave refractor card. So that's what I'm going with. Nice. I think that is the right play. But I think of, like, if you were to go, for instance, the white jersey SSP Acuna. Let's bring up Acuna. We all love that card. That was a print run of about 250. So I'm thinking, long term, is this card, the judge card, kind of like a sleeper? That's all I'm saying. I think if, for me, if it was just a regular top's finest rookie auto, I would have went with that. And normally, even now, more than before, I lean towards more on-card auto than non-auto now, because I think autos do well in the long run. But for me, this is a super short printed card that I think will always be desired because it is flagship. So in this case, I'm going to actually go with the bat under the arm SSSP. I do like the Aaron Judge auto, though, at $2,000. I think any auto, on-card auto of Aaron Judge is a win, regardless. So I think at $2,000, it's a really good deal. I think at $1,100, I would be ecstatic about this card because that's what these ROS were selling last year until literally June 28th, somebody purchased it for $2,200. A PSA 10, there's a pop 13 count. It's last sold for like $4,900. So I think the buyer of this card might have said, okay, this looks really good. I don't know why it's ungraded, but I'm going to roll the dice at $2,000 and overpay for an ungraded card. But they like the condition, and I think that's why it sold for what it did. So I think it's still a pretty decent buy, if it grades better than a nine, we'll say. You said, how much for a PSA 10, $4,900? $4,900, yeah. But I couldn't find when the last sale was. Okay. No, that's impressive. And then so the PSA 10 is pop 13, and then PSA 9 is like a pop 21. And then it goes like single digits from there. So there's not a huge pop count on these things. So I think even a PSA 9 is a great buy in this particular card, because I don't think your price is going to bottom out as much just because the pop count is so low. Yeah, I like that Ronald Cunha white jersey comp. We're talking about Cunha a lot this episode, but I like that comp. Yeah, because I was looking at his, that white jersey card is selling for $3,700 now. PSA 10. PSA 10 pop count of $70 for that card. True story, that card I sold for $10,000 at one point. You're at the peak then in 2021, sold for almost $10,000. There you go. Hyung was the seller when it was at the peak. I bought it for $25,000. That's crazy. And people thought I was crazy. Yeah, I thought you were crazy. That's when I was getting into hobby. I was like, you're sending $2,000 for a paper card? But there you go. Crazy times back then. All right. I like that. I'm going to go with my pick one. Much higher budget, $17,500. Both cards, $17,500. Both cards, 2016 Bowman Chrome. Who are the top rookies then? Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. So here's the thing, the Juan Soto, and they're both graded BGS 9.5. So all same, 2016 Bowman Chrome, first Bowman Chrome auto, rookie auto, or prospect auto. Both graded BGS 9.5, 10 auto. The difference is, other than the players, Juan Soto is the gold refractor, Tatis is the orange refractor, numbered 25. So which one are you going for? Both sold for $17,500 within the last two months. That's great. I'm glad Tatis sold because that orange took a beating at one point. Nice bounce back, yeah. It's a crazy bounce back. Because I also have the Independence Day Tatis that I've been holding on to, waiting for a bounce back with Tatis. He's not there yet, but that just proves that the future market of Tatis is sustainable still. Because of what he went through. And I don't like the fact, one bad thing I hate, is why are you bringing up the lawsuit right now that, it's so stupid. Do it in the freaking off season. It's like, it goes hand in hand. You put additional stress at that level that he's playing in, of course it's going to affect your play. So to me that was stupid by Fernando Tatis and company and agents and whoever is involved. It's like, chill until the off season. He's trying to win San Diego pennant and they were on the right trajectory, but they screwed that up. And because of that, because of that, I'm going Juan Soto. Because like, yeah, that was stupid. And he's done stupid stuff the last few years. So for me, Juan Soto is Juan Soto. I know what I'm going to get from him. And to me, I like gold just as much as orange. I'm not, I like orange, don't get me wrong. Orange is, I love out of 25, orange, true orange. But something about gold, I don't care if it's out of 50 and it's higher, I'm glad. Because it's the perfect marriage of liquidity and demand. Whereas I guarantee you, if you said, would you rather have a gold or orange, I bet you it's 50-50. And the justification for the orange would be, well, it's rare, it's more numbered. So I'll give you a situation, well, would that matter if there was a million people interested in out of 50 or 500,000 people interested in out of 25? Is that not the same thing? Supply demand. Right? Sure. So same logic. I'm going for the gold. Because I think there's more people in the game that love gold, eye appealing, and liquidity. So for me, I'm going with the Juan Soto just based, well, one, because Fernando Tatis, like I said, he did what he did. And Juan Soto, this guy's going to finish every year the same, you're going to get what you get. He's going to finish a hundred war career. So I'm locking that gold in the safe at $17,500. All right. You know, if people don't know about the lawsuit, you can read it yourself. It's some kind of agreement he made when he wasn't a huge star. And now that he's making hundreds of millions of dollars, it looks like he owes 36 or something. Yeah. 10% of those earnings. That was the contractual agreement, but I don't know any of the details, so we'll find out in the lawsuit. But yeah, it's during mid season and you ended up making the right choice because the comp I gave you, the $17,500 for his orange was in April of 2025. It actually sold recently this month or June, just this past few weeks ago for just under $14,000. So it's already dropped $3,000 within a couple of months. And yeah, so my argument for Juan Soto is exactly what you said. The orange is nice, but I think the gold is like, there are people that just like gold. And I think the liquidity is much greater for the gold as well. And the gold has certainly come down a lot as well for Juan Soto. So I think if you have those kinds of funds, I think it's a good buy now. And the other thing was the American League Player of the Month for June was Cal Raleigh, who we talked about. The National League Player of the Month for June was, guess who's heating up after a very slow start at the beginning of the year, as he always does. As he always does. We talked about this. Yeah, he's going to finish. He's going to end up hitting 280 plus with 35 to 40 home runs, you know, 100 RBIs. This is what you're going to get from him. Yep. I think he's at 20 homers now. He hit nine in the first two months and 11, I think, just this past June. So he's like, that's his MO. But yeah, there you go. Juan Soto. Sleeping on him. I'm always, I'm back on, you know, I've always been on, actually, his, just having his cards on my watch list. So that might be my next buy. We'll see. All right. Thanks for listening, guys. We appreciate you. And yeah, we'll have a brand new episode for you guys next week. Talk to you then. Bye. Hey, thanks for listening to Cards to the Moon. We'd really appreciate you subscribing to our podcast wherever you listen to your podcasts. And you can also connect with each of us on Instagram at 5cardguys. Or you can follow Hyung at Integrity Sports Cards or John at TradeUatRecess. You can also check us out at 5cardguys.com. Thanks again and hope to connect soon. Bye.