Sport Card Expo (Largest Card Show in Canada) Debrief; Recounting a Trade That Went Down at the Expo; Paul Hickey Shares Tips on Finding Good Deals at Card Shows

You're listening to Cards to the Moon, a podcast about trading cards from both a collector and investor perspective. We hope you'll stick around for the ride as we take a deep dive into the state of the hobby, share some hot takes, hopefully some useful advice and fun stories along the way. Hey guys, welcome back to Cards to the Moon. This is episode 251 and it is another Friday edition. My name is Clark from 5cardguys.com and 5cardguys on Instagram and YouTube. Co-hosting with me as usual is Hyung of Integrity Sports Cards. John's away for the next couple of episodes but he should be back with us after that. Alright, off the top today, this is our first recording since the Sport Card Expo, the largest card show in Canada, wrapped up for the year. So first, I want to ask you Hyung, what you thought of it, what were some takeaways from the event and then afterwards, we wanted to share the story of a deal that our friend Roy made at the expo which is pretty cool and it incorporated a strategy we discussed on a previous episode of Cards to the Moon to get the deal done. So yeah, I'm excited to tell that story but first, Hyung, how did you like the event overall? So one, it was fun to watch that deal. I'm just going to say, because I'm just thinking about it now and I'm just like, man, it was literally like textbook of what we said and then the execution part was great but overall, the Sports Card Expo, I had a blast. I was only there for a day. I was exhausted by the end of it but it was good to see a familiar face. We got to see, it was very different, like I said, with Fanatics Fest and we expected that because we've been at the expo. Still a lot of hockey like we expected but overall, I thought it was a good turnout. I thought there was a lot of people there. There was a couple times where it was rammed and I will say that it left a really good impression because I won this canvas, this Upper Deck 2024 Rookie Canvas, sick. Bunch of NHL names like Celebrities on there and stuff like that but it was a canvas. They do it every year. I think there's maybe only 25. It's out of 25 based on the previous years. So I was very happy winning that in a random Upper Deck raffle. So shout out to Upper Deck for hosting that. You hooked up the right person because you got a free advertisement space. But overall, yeah, I enjoyed it. I thought it was one of the better expos over the last few years. So yeah, overall, no complaints. Totally. I agree and you didn't even go on Saturday but Saturday was rammed. Friday was rammed. Yeah, I've seen pictures. Saturday is like, it was crazy, right? So the hobby is alive and on Friday, we also split a box of SB Authentic, right? We ripped together and it's kind of expensive but we wanted to do something fun. We hit a Conor Bedard Future Watch. Future Watch, yeah. But not the autograph, just the plane. Yeah, just the plane. I mean, it's still a decent card. I think over the long run, it will be worth something, right? But yeah. As long as Bedard does what he does. We pulled the Chicago auto thinking that we hit the jackpot but that's the worst. Yeah, it's Luke Phelps. It ended up being Luke Phelps, not Conor Bedard. If you follow me on FodCardGuys, you already saw the Instagram reel. We pulled the wrong Blackhawks auto but that was kind of funny. What else? Yeah, no, I got the same vibes. There was a lot of hockey but you know what? I saw more baseball this time around. It's becoming a little bit increasingly more diverse in terms of what kind of sports cards there are at the expo. Right, a lot more baseball, I would say. Yeah. A lot of Pokemon. A lot of Pokemon, too. That's growing, too. Yeah. Definitely. That's what I noticed. CSC is doing an amazing job. Just even them alone having their own section. You know what? Very smart play by CSC, I would say. They've grown a lot. CSC is Canada Sports Cards here in Toronto. And they're a Facebook group, I think, originally started. But they've grown into a pretty big community here in Canada. So they set up this, I would say, it was a whole corner in the sport expo, right? Yeah. That was big. It was big and it was always crowded. And a lot of kids, you know, as you would expect, but it was kind of cool to see just them growing year after year. So that was awesome. All right. Let's talk about the deal. I want to set it up by starting that our other friend, Will, who loyal listeners will know is our backup podcast co-host, he assisted on this deal by being the guy who found the card that Roy ultimately got in the trade in the least likeliest booth. So let's take it from there. So the whole thing was, I think it was John that mentioned it in our podcast in terms of tips at the expo, saying that, you know, you get an idea of what type of dealer they are. So if you have, for instance, a bunch of hockey slabs and then you see one baseball slab, you'd be more willing, you know that that guy is more willing to deal on that baseball slab because he probably made a trade to kind of acquire that, but he's not necessarily married to it. He would like to get rid of it. So that was the context of the Will assist. So Will, being a loyal listener, you know, pulled that practice and applied that. And it was funny because Clark, first thing we did was went to the PSA booth. So I would say you get the other assist because what happened was we had to wait in line for that Ovechkin that gemmed, which was amazing for your buddy. Congratulations, by the way. But yeah, you got the assist because you put us right in that location because Will, Roy and I, we just decided to kind of like take a stroll while you're waiting. And then that's where Will immediately recognized this Paul Skeen's first Bowman Chrome Sapphire. It's black and it's numbered to 10. Crazy. So it was a PSA 9, so it's a pop two. And he identified the slab in a bunch of Pokemon slabs. The whole booth was Pokemon except for that. And Will's like, hold up. This is exactly what John was talking about. And then that's where he called myself and Roy over and Roy started negotiating right away, which he did a good job. He controlled kind of like that whole negotiation. There's a lot of back and forth. There was a couple of times I was like, oh, I don't know if they're too far off. But I was there. He had a bunch of Pokemon cards too. Yes. Yeah. And that was his thing was he had a bunch of Pokemon cards that he graded. He pulled and graded that PSA 10 that brought enormous value. So at the end of the day, he was in it for half that amount. So whatever trade value was. So I think it was like, I want to say 2200 or whatever it was Canadian. Yeah, he had probably half of that amount invested in those slabs. So Roy was looking for something where, you know, he just graded these so he could get rid of them. He was still in profit, but find something that potentially could grow where he didn't have to sell 10 different slabs. Right. So this was a marriage for Roy in terms of his strategy, what he was looking for. He was looking for maybe a few month flip. So it was a perfect timing where, you know, baseball starting to die down. And then, you know, but in March, April, it's going to get really hot. And someone like Paul Skeens, who's not going to throw a single pitch until next March, you know, is pretty much his prices are protected and you're buying at a pretty low price, which I think Roy overall won in terms of the deal. Like just thinking how much he's actually in that Paul Skeens black, first Bowman chrome and then his strategy to sell it in March. I think he's going to do really well. I think he's going to it's a deal to where Paul Hickey would be like, you know what? That was a good deal. That was a great flip. That's a great profit. Yeah, that's an amazing story. I know in hockey, you only get primary and secondary assist. So I appreciate you giving me the secondary. But you get the tertiary. Okay. I know it doesn't exist. I'm just an advisor. Yeah, exactly. That's something that is something because you knew about Paul Skeens, his potential. Oh, yeah. I'm sure Roy didn't know anything about Paul Skeens, really, you know, in terms of like this. And the crazy thing is, a year ago or two years ago, we probably wouldn't have done this deal because we weren't a believer necessarily in pitchers, right? We would never invest in pitchers like that. But Paul Skeens have changed has changed the narrative a bit. Yes, 100%. And that's, it's funny you mentioned that because I want Chris Begg back on our podcast because you know, we made fun of him the whole time about his time to shine buying pitchers. Yes, we to be fair, to be fair to beg, we need to get him back. He could glorify pitchers again. But it just might be Paul Skeens and Otani when it comes back. But anyway, amazing story. I love how everything turned out. And you know, when it happened, we were like, we have to talk about this on the pod. Team effort win. Yeah, absolutely. That's right. That's right. All right. This is usually good for a Friday episode, but we got more for you guys today. The past couple of Friday episodes, we've been playing a joint podcast episode between myself and Paul Hickey, as Hyang just mentioned. And he's the host of the sports card strategy show. And we have lively discussions just like we did this past week about the hobby. And in this latest collaboration, we talked about his strategy, approaching a card show with some great advice on how to find a good deal. And we also talked about trying to profit from buying raw cards and then grading them. And we used a number of baseball cards as examples, specifically the ones I'm trying to target in the offseason. So I think it'll be a good listen. And you could tell us if you agree or not with what we discussed. So enjoy this joint episode I had with Paul Hickey. What's going on cards to the moon and sports card strategy show listeners. Of course, I'm Paul Hickey and he's Clark Kim from cards to the moon and five card guys. We are collaborating consistently here for both of our podcasts and good to see you, my man. How you doing? Good. Good. You know, it's always good to see you, Paul. And just off air, we're talking about maybe we could just dive right into it because off air we're talking about how here in Toronto, we got the biggest sports card show coming up this Thursday to Sunday, it's called the sport card expo and listeners of cards to the moon. We just had our newest episode out today. And with our, with my two co-hosts, we're just discussing strategy. Like every year we talk about strategy in terms of, you know, how we approach a card show and you know, how it's dependent also on the sports card market, you know, our, our price is coming down. So is this a good buying opportunity or our price is still inflated and, and vendors don't want to take a loss. So you know, you might want to look to trade. And we discussed a bit about that. So cards to the moon listeners and sports card strategy show listeners, if you're, if you're interested, listen to the latest episode on cards to the moon. But what I wanted to talk to you about is, you know, it's always good to get other people's opinions. And since, you know, we have this collaboration, I thought it'd be a perfect opportunity to ask you, Paul, like, you know, we actually met at FanFest New York city. So we've been to a card show and, and I'm sure we have a slightly different strategies in terms of what we're looking for and how we're trying to find good deals. So I'm curious if I can ask you that question, you know, how, when you go to a large card show or any card show really locally or, or yeah, do you have like a, you know, a strategy in mind when you approach it or does it differ from card show to card show? Yeah, that's awesome. I love this discussion. I think it probably differs a little bit from card show to card show, because to me, it's all about mindset and it's all about what, what are your goals for that individual time period? So that would be why it would differ from card show to card show. So for example, you know, just throughout the year, you might be, you might have a different mindset. You might have different goals, not only hobby goals, but life goals and things like that. But generally I have kind of a set of rules for how I approach a card show. And I've become pretty strict at following these rules over the years because when I first started going to card shows, I found it very, very easy to feel obligated to make purchases. You're standing right in front of people and you feel like, I mean, it's a good thing to feel like you want to support them. But oftentimes at card shows, the pricing is not where it should be. And the vendors are willing to play the game of negotiating with you. And I think that for the first time card show patron, it's important to realize that you shouldn't feel obligated to buy anything from anyone. You definitely are. You definitely are in a situation where there's a lot of, uh, there should be a lot of competition for your business because you're literally in a room, especially at the sports card expo, you're literally going to be in a room with, with like, probably like, I'm guessing it's between 500 and a thousand tables or something like that. Like, you know, it's probably just a massive show. So, so consider it like a situation where people have to compete for your business. Um, another thing that's different for first time card show patrons is that I think most of us are used to shopping online now and not just outside the hobby, but definitely inside the hobby where you have eBay and you have other marketplaces that you can search for things. print because when you go to a card show and you think about I want to try to find this one card, that's actually, that actually can be a trap. It can be kind of a dangerous trap because if you're looking for only one card or maybe let's say specific cards, I mean, it might be that you're looking for 50 specific cards. Like if you're looking for specific cards at a card show, that can be a trap because card shows are not designed to necessarily give you good deals on cards that you are hunting for. Card shows are designed to go the other way around. If you're looking for good deals, think of it like I need to be open to picking any card that is the right card at the right, at the right price, uh, at the right time for the right player. So it's like, it's almost like this, uh, reverse engineering, like how you would normally shop on eBay. Instead of searching for a card, you should go into a card show searching for a deal. So that kind of goes back to my first rule, which is like, don't feel obligated. So having said all of that, I would, I would, I would just go a little bit more specific. So the way that I approach a table with that in mind is I will comp out say two or three cards in the showcase of the vendor and I'll comp out two or three cards in like value boxes and I'll look through dollar boxes real quick if they have dollar boxes to see, um, what kind of cards they have. And if, if the prices that the dealer give me out of the showcase and out of the value boxes indicate that I could put together say 10 to 15 cards in a bulk deal and buy everything for the 85 to 95% of the sticker price or the, you know, AKA the, the recent comps. Right. Then I think it's worth staying at that table and trying to put together a deal and you should be able to do this in like three minutes. And so, so like you should, you should, if, if you're, if you're like me and you're looking to make money flipping sports cards, this is the approach. I could see some listeners going, Whoa, this is super intense. I just want to go and have a good time and like try to find cool cards. And if that's your thing, that's great too. But again, you should still do the negotiating part of it because, um, while it may seem like you, you might get a little bit of FOMO, like if you leave the table, they might sell the card. That's true. But chances are you could probably go find that card on eBay. So really they should, the dealer should be competing for your business and you shouldn't necessarily feel obligated. And then one of the thing is like, if you're setting up as a vendor, I think it's important to remember that you should price your cards to move unless, unless you're in, like if you're a lot of vendors, I've actually, um, I have a lot of empathy for, for a lot of vendors that I've met at card shows over the last few years, because a lot of them were people who bought in to their inventory in 2021. Uh, whereas as you know, and maybe the new listeners aren't familiar with the fact that basically if, if that's the case, pretty much you're underwater on everything. Yeah. And so I have a lot of, uh, empathy for those vendors who are underwater and so they're struggling there. If they price the stuff to move, they're going to lose a lot of money. So I think what a lot of people do is they overpriced their stuff. But I think it's, it's important to remember that like, if you're holding, if you're a vendor, so you've paid, you know, a couple hundred dollars to set up a table and it's your time and it's your, you know, your time organizing and everything like that. Don't put cards out on your table, um, that you're underwater on that you think might go back. Like your Mike Trout card is a good example, right? Like I wouldn't want you to start to bring that up, but you know, I'm also messing with you. Like you like your Mike Trout card. Yeah. Don't put it out on your table, but maybe your Luca card, maybe you do put it out on your table. Right. Right. Cause you got room on that. Um, now that, that's a lot, you know, that's a lot in like, uh, uh, uh, one answer. And there's, there's definitely more. I love this topic, but I think it's what I've learned. Like I'm, I'm very hard on myself when it comes to, um, wanting to improve based on my previous performance. So when I approach a card show, it's like game day. And then I want like the next card show I go to, it's like the next game and I want to perform better. So that's kind of, no, that's awesome. No, I appreciate those insights. And I especially like what you said about, because I've fallen into that trap of, you know, looking for specific cards. And then when, you know, when you do find those specific cards, you almost feel obligated to make a deal or overpay because you're like, Oh, I finally found this card in the, in the sea of vendors and the sea of cards that are at these large card shows. So, um, it's, that's really good advice on trying to search for a deal. And, you know, um, you know, one thing to add to that was, you know, when you look at vendors and you'll know certain comps of certain key cards and, and that right away, you could tell if this vendor is reasonable in terms of their pricing, right? Because, you know, if you just find, we talked about the, uh, silver prism, Luca Donchage two weeks ago on the, on our collaboration pod. And, you know, you, you already know how much it's going for right now in recent comps. And if a vendor is overpricing it by two X, then probably you're not going to find any good deals, um, at that vendor. But if you find another vendor that has reasonable comps, then, then you're more likely to find, you know, other cards at reasonable prices where, like you said, you could cobble something together to find a really good deal. So yeah, it's great advice. Um, you know, like I, I was just thinking that by the time I aired this on our podcast, uh, the sports card expo will be over, but at the same time, there's so many local card shows throughout the year. And I think what you say, uh, what you said, um, it's just a vice that's applicable to any card show that you, that you go to and the rest of 2024 and heading into 2025. Yeah. Thanks man. And I think like I mentioned mindset and I think when, what I mean by mindset is, is like, so you made me think of when you said like you search and you search and you're looking for the one card and then you find it, like, it's like, it's almost like not only do you feel obligated to make the deal with the dealer, but you also, at least I start to think about, well, I told my wife and my friends and my kids that I was coming here. They're all going to ask me, what did you get? They're going to be excited for me and all that. And so the, because I'm not necessarily the collector and I'm more of the flipper, I actually tell everyone around me when I'm going to a card show more for myself than for everybody else. But I, I'll say things like, Hey look, you know, I'm going to meet people, build new relationships, which is true, but it's really like, it's the reason I do that is because I don't want to come home, not have bought the card that I was excited about because it wasn't for the right price and then have everyone around me in my life think that I had a bad time and feel like maybe it wasn't worth my time. The reality is it is worth my time. I love going to card shows. I think if you can have the, just develop your own mindset of like don't overpay for the card, but don't just not overpay for the card. Put yourself in a situation where you have goals to build relationships with people. Because I think what I've seen happen a lot is that there's deals that happen around card shows, but not always at cards like there's people that we like, they meet each other and they exchange contact information. And then even though somebody was looking for a particular card at a price at the show and didn't find it because you built that relationship, you could still get that card later from that person at the price you wanted, even though maybe it was overpriced at the show. And I think that can be just as fulfilling as going to the show. So I just encourage people like it's basically a way, like take the pressure off of yourself when you attend the show and think of it more of as like a long game of this is one thing that I'm doing to enjoy the hobby, meet people, build relationships. And then maybe there's some follow through later. Because the more shows I go to, I keep seeing the same people, which is cool. You know, I like that. Like I meet new people, but I also see people like old friends. So yeah, right, right. Yeah. No, that's awesome. I might have to clip this part of the episode right before the expo cause it's, this is valuable advice. So appreciate it, Paul. Yeah, no problem, man. No problem. So, good stuff. Well, thanks for asking me. I, uh, I feel like the, the last couple of recordings we've done together, I've talked too much and not let you ask me questions. So I'm glad we led with that because I think that's a good stuff. Um, okay. So I asked Clark to give me, uh, as many cards as he wanted, um, that he's looking to buy raw and likely grade in, you know, the end of the sometime to the rest of 2024, or even into 2025. And I think I, did I specifically ask you for baseball cards? I think I might've, you did. And the reason I did that is because, and I could be wrong, but what I know about you so far is that that's, that's kind of your number one sport, correct? Yes. So, and baseball I would say is my number three sport behind, um, football and basketball. And so I enjoy kind of understanding from a baseball collector and investor, what they're looking for. And, um, I have the, I have the cards in front of me. So, so Clark gave me five cards. He didn't necessarily know why he was giving me five cards. Um, one was to have a discussion around it and learn from him why he's targeting these five cards. So let's start there. Let's start there. And then I'll, and then I'll reveal kind of like what my, what my, uh, side of this is as well. So you're looking for a 2023 tops heritage Gunner Henderson, real one rookie on card auto, a Jackson cheerio 2022 Bowman chrome first prospect auto refractor out of four 99 Jackson holiday, uh, auto out of 25 from 2024 tops Chrome. So this would be a rookie auto orange refractor, uh, a 2023 tops heritage, real one, uh, red ink Corbin Carroll auto special edition serial numbered out of 74. Is that right? Yep. Okay. It doesn't have to be serial number 73 out of 74. Just, just want to, you know, the way you asked me too, it was like, what's on my watch list. So I just, yeah, but it doesn't have to be 73 out of 74 specifically. Okay. I figured that was the case, but that copy paste from the watch list. Love it. Okay. Um, and then 2020 Bowman Chrome, Bobby Wood, junior megabox, mojo blue refractor auto out of one 50. So these are all obviously great cards, top players, not surprised by any of that. Uh, right off the top, I thought, okay, Clark's looking for young players who have already hit the major leagues. Um, thus maybe their, their prospect market isn't as inflated as it once was. So it might be a good time to buy in obviously still a lot of upside. Um, am I correct in that? And then what else, what, why, why else are you targeting these cards? Yeah, no, those, uh, those initial reasons you mentioned are bang on. Like they're past the prospect type. I feel like these players are, you know, uh, at the, at the, um, start of the 2023, 2024 season. Um, we're beyond that. So they've been called up to the MLB and like always, you know, the players kind of the, the shine kind of wears off a little bit. And for some of them, especially like someone like Jackson holiday, they just struggle in the big leagues. So then obviously the value depreciates and, and some more than others are faster than others. Um, but, uh, I like to look at those players where they have that top prospect pedigree. The talent is still there, but in my opinion, they just have to adjust to major league, you know, uh, competition. And so I feel like, um, those kind of, those are the players I like to target. Right. And, uh, in terms of the other, like, so I, I kind of wrote down my notes on like, uh, four or five factors I look for generally speaking when I look to invest. Okay. So the player is one of them. So it's someone that's off the prospect type, but they still have potential and, um, their, their car prices are, um, have depreciated somewhat, uh, the card brand. So, you know, there's the tops Chrome Bowman Chrome are, are elite for baseball card collectors, but then there are other ones that I feel are undervalued. Like you see a couple of tops heritage, um, brands that don't go as far as much, but, um, I feel like there's a solid base of collectors that load like those type of cards. And I feel like it's more of a mid to long-term play. And especially the Red Ink, which is serial numbered. We're talking about the Corbin Carroll example, um, to 74. So there's that, that's the third factor, the rarity. So a lot of these are numbered, serial numbered cards. I'm not looking for base cards anymore, even if they're autographed. Um, and this, you know, they're the ones I look for. Uh, some of them are numbered to 499. Some of them are numbered to 25. It's all relatively within the same price range or budget that I'm comfortable with. So obviously for a higher caliber player, um, you look at Bobby Wood Jr. He's probably the best out of that list. And, um, you know, uh, I, I chose a Megabox Mojo blue refractor. So it's not the pure blue, it's not the Bowman chrome, but because it is a Mojo blue refractor, the prices aren't going to be as high as those other Bowman chrome, even tops chrome, pure solid blue refractors. So, but the, you know, the Mojo blue refractor is still a beautiful looking card and it's number two, still number two, 150, like most blue refractors are. So, you know, I like to kind of, it's a balancing game, right? So the higher, um, caliber the player is, you might want to look for a card brand that's undervalued because the prices will, you know, um, uh, not be as high. Uh, so, you know, and then, uh, the last thing I look at is the value of the card. Um, is it a good time to buy right now? Like Jackson holiday, the number two 25, uh, which is an orange refractor. Another little, uh, piece of information I like about this card is that it's a color match the orange with the Baltimore, the Royals with the blue. Like so I look for little things like that as. But yeah, you look for the value and the holiday cards have come down a little bit, but not as much as I would like So you kind of have to play the waiting game a little bit too So Jackson Churio is a good example actually, like he got the same kind of hype as Jackson Holiday And Churio for some reason is, you know, I think performed better than Holiday yet People are just gravitating more towards Jackson Holiday for whatever reason You know, on our podcast we call this hobby logic, things that don't make sense anywhere else in the world except in the hobby So it's one of those hobby logic things But Jackson Churio is a great example where the upside is still tremendous and he's still a young guy and you probably get a nice lower serial numbered card At a better value. So those guys are kind of like, that's in a nutshell I guess that's that's you know, how my brain thinks about which players and which cards I like to target especially during the offseason Yeah, I like that a lot. I love all of that. In fact, all of that is great strategy and I Would say guidelines we call them guidelines that know offseason.com where you know, you want it We generally say you want to look at when we said the right card for the right player at the right time what we mean is Is the card down in comparison to where? historical data based on that player or like players Indicates that it should go up right and so that's kind of The right time part the right player. It's got to be like a guy with the market. So you hit on that And then the right card, I think it's interesting that you know in football and basketball There's a lot of releases from panini that are just crap And baseball might be a little different in that top I mean, would you would you say that's true actually like would you say that baseball because I think what you've done here is interesting You've you've brought up another strategy that we don't typically look at which is is there a release for a top player? Where maybe it's not their top card and maybe you don't have to go that high maybe there's more margin actually in going to a release like a heritage or something like that as long as it's a Short printer a serial number. Would you say in your experience is baseball unique? Because of the manufacturer and the way that they they have the release schedule and things like that and just the amount of releases for baseball being different Yeah, I wouldn't say it's particularly unique but because there is there are still sets in baseball. That's garbage as well We name them off real quick. Is it like Gypsy Queen and like yes like that. Okay, that's a good one You know tops cosmic. That's a little bit gimmicky So there are like, you know, there are sets that are just you know If you're if you're looking to invest or flip you probably want to skip those But then there are the ones that you know Stadium Club tops heritage I feel like have the history and the tradition that those those are the sets that have been around a while and You know for some reason They're just in my opinion. They're not as valued as they should be so and they the carts look really nice as well You know, so that's those are kind of the same like I would call them like a tier two set if if I'm categorizing them That's awesome So and it's interesting and so my angle at this was to other than learn from you on on all of this I also had a specific angle which was to talk about this tool that I built back in March called the formula and the reason I built the formula at no offseason calm is and I've talked about it on the sports card strategy show at length every episode since March is there's like Literally hundreds of thousands or even millions of cards that we could all be buying And if our goal is to make money either in the short term or in the long term or somewhere in between There's got to be some kind of a way to prioritize What we're buying at any given time because there's so many options So the the premise of the formula really is to be it's a rankings tool, but it's to help people Prioritize their purchases and so essentially what we do is we look at raw to grade We look at already graded and we've started to look at graded to raw where you can Crack slabs and sell them raw for more than they're more than you paid for them in their slabs I think you and I have talked a little bit about this But what I wanted to do is just basically take these cards run them through the formula and give you The results on whether or not any of these Would make you any money on the raw to grade right like we think and that's not to say that like look You've done a great job targeting. Yeah, I'm not saying you've bought these cards, but you've done a great job narrowing your focus down to these five cards to Put yourself in a position to even if you even if it's not a raw to grade win off the bat Maybe these do go up in value To me that's the hardest thing to do. It's a little bit. It's a little bit More straightforward to go raw to grade and win that way And then obviously when you when you pair that with a performance bike, it's even it's even better So I went ahead and ran these through the formula. I'll briefly explain like what what that means So basically we take a 30-day average of comps And that's your target cost so we don't we give we give everybody at no offseason.com a target cost and Then we look at depending on the card most cards this works But if it doesn't based on how long the cards been on the market for we slightly modify it, but we look at a PSA 9 PSA 10 Upside and then we cross-referenced that with the gem rate. So I mean if it if gem rate comm says that it gets 80 percent eights. Well, then obviously we factor that in but we give a Projected average sale price based on if you buy it for the target cost and you grade it What are your likely grades across your submissions? And then what's your projected average sale price for that? So obviously it's like the higher the PSA 10 upside the better the if it sells Now it's really hard to see this happening But sometimes it still happens if it sells in PSA 9 more than raw that obviously helps and then if it has a high gem Rate it obviously helps But of course, it's still on the the hobbyist to buy one at the target cost and find one that could potentially gem Right. Yeah, so but it's a tool built to say like, okay If you make if you're able to make as many of these plays within that same card as possible You increase your chances of the ROI and it's ranked it's ranked based on ROI at no offseason calm So when I ran your cards through the formula And I think this could be because most of them Weren't other than the Jackson Churio refractor out of 499 auto The others were so short printed although there were there was enough data on the Bobby wood jr Mojo refractor the Jackson Churio refractor out of 499 and Just those two out of the five unfortunately yielded a negative return from a raw to grade standpoint based on the Projected average like what you would have to pay for it What grade you're likely to get back what you would be able to sell that for right yields a negative? Return if you were to go to the only depending on the grading now, that's not taking into account, you know, Bobby wood jr Has the best? July of all time and you know, I mean that that could still happen, right? Yeah But what I can tell you is that when we look at these players I can tell you the cards that the formula Gives the best ROI numbers for okay And and you can see here where the more cards that we add to the formula The more a picture becomes clear of if you're looking to invest in a particular player which cards you should buy like from a raw to grade perspective Bobby wood jr. Is 2022 tops chrome update auto Which is a two hundred and thirty two dollar buy-in Which is pretty close to the one that you so your last the last comp of yours is 367 according to market movers, okay Sorry, if you guys have like a car, I know you guys mentioned card ladder on your show Hopefully it's okay that I mentioned Okay so so that 2022 tops chrome update auto 232 buy-in point 812 upside in a PSA 10 According to the formula which gives a and a 270 in a PSA 9 Based on the gem rate and all those factors. You're likely to get a 220 622 percent average sale price on a 232 raw to grade purchase this includes your grading fees It includes we take out taxes shipping marketplace fees and everything So this card will return you likely 97% on your investment of your two hundred and thirty two dollars now, obviously if you only buy one of them at $232 that's a shot in the dark You better feel really good about if that Particular card is gonna gem or get a nine if you're able to buy multiple of these you just increase your chances at that 97% ROI, so that's Bobby Witt juniors number one card per the formula I know we're running out of time, but In terms of Jackson Churio and Jackson holiday. Well, we can talk about Gunnar Henderson real quick Gunnar Henderson's number one card For the formula is his 2019 Bowman draft chrome first auto just the base auto 35% ROI on a raw to grade Jackson Churio and Jackson holiday. So Jackson Churio is number one card would be actually his 2022 Bowman chrome purple auto out of 250 33% ROI and Jackson holiday and again, this is just raw to grade right? 2022 Bowman draft base auto first first. So 196 buy-in point still has a Now this might be a little bit skewed by the 365 day average cost I'll say just a little disclaimer here, but it is yielding a 108% ROI on a raw to grade. So again, this is not necessarily meant to say you're guaranteed To make a hundred and eight percent ROI if you buy and grade that card rather if you're looking to Prioritize if you have a budget and you're looking to prioritize This tool helps you do that. So I think again This your Your five cards like I asked you for them. Are you are you even looking like would these be cards that you would even be? Looking to make a raw to grade quick flip on or when you look at these cards Are you thinking I want to make a hundred and eight percent ROI on this card? Yeah, that's a good question. I think for me with these five cards in particular, I I view them more as cars that I can hold to mid to longer term because they're more they're they're more rare and you know, if I'm buying I'm buying them at the right time. I'm buying them at the right price. I'm buying them at the right time I'm buying them at the right price. I'm buying them at the right price. I'm buying them at the right price Because they're more they're they're more rare and you know if if I And it's a good point that you made earlier too. Like a lot of it's dependent on their performance Like i'm hoping for that performance spike in the season to come, you know in the 2025 season So that's part of the equation as well. That's why the that's the player factor involved and um, and you know, like I just like To look at more rare cards that are serial numbered. So it's interesting that when you're doing your analysis a lot of these raw to grade the ones that the the formula recommends are base cards because In a sense they are more liquid as well because the price point's more attractive And you know, you could buy in at a lesser price the grading and then of course if it gets a PSA 10 You could probably flip that um more quickly so that that part, uh, Um was interesting but not totally surprising. But yeah, I think I think um, You know, we kind of talked about this before and um in the previous podcast we did together but like with base cards, um If you want to make a good profit, you got you know, you you might want to buy multiples that takes more work and and we we already uh, You know said how lazy I am generally speaking when it comes to that stuff That's you know, but that being said there there is certainly a play there to do it that way So I could see that point as well Hey one more thing I wanted to run by you for today we can talk more about this uh throughout the the next you know several times that we collab is my Strategy I did a recap episode a couple weeks ago on what worked best in 2024 and what? Uh didn't work as well and one thing that i'm taking into my personal I'm, not saying that everybody should do this. In fact, i'm not like i'm Very outspoken on the sports card strategy show that this would be very hard to do and it's not necessarily a recommendation but for me what i'm gonna do is i'm gonna uh Box myself into five players Um, i'm only gonna invest in five players over the next 12 months um and in In those five and i'm still deciding who those five players are i'm going to reveal it in an upcoming Episode of the sports card strategy show there's going to be obviously a whole rationale as to why i'm picking the five that i'm picking So there's a lot to consider but do you my question to you is like we all know i'm just the flipper um, you're You're a mix of everything. Um How do you? How do you place parameters around what you buy? Do you is it something like that you do? Ongoing do you do it year by year? Do you like do you ever? Do you ever think through like hey i'm i'm gonna i'm gonna really like try to box myself into only Buying certain types of cards or certain players or things like, uh, how do you think through that? Yeah, um for me, I I guess in a way I target probably five players a well just in terms of goat players that I like to hold long term right so those are always fairly consistent you know so I you know Luke is off my list because I was able to pick up a Luka and you know if I sold my Luka he would be back on the list because I would always like to have another Luka in my collection just to hold more long term but you know there's the Steph Curry's and and I don't know with your five are you looking across all sports or in one particular sport yeah I'm looking across all sports I feel like it needs to be a mix of more stable like one needs to be a super stable asset that doesn't necessarily have any volatility and I'm challenging myself because I've never really done vintage so I want I want that to be like a vintage right player and then I want I want to go across all sports so I want to do at least one baseball at least one football at least one basketball and then I'm not like the hockey soccer tennis golf markets aren't necessarily not and actually hockey I think is exempt from this statement because I think the hockey markets like super strong and like there's liquidity there there's opportunity there and everything like that so I haven't ruled out hockey but in terms of anything other than basketball baseball football I'm hesitant to go there because there's those I've been in those markets before and they're not they don't move as quickly and so to box myself into five there has to be five that I can move in and out of quickly and there's enough action otherwise if I'm only doing five players and I don't give myself enough action for 12 months then it's gonna be really hard but yeah I'm thinking you know look maybe there's a women's basketball player that's in there maybe there's you know you know maybe there's like some different things that I need to do with like maybe college like American football obviously is huge but maybe there needs to be a college player in there and not just pros and so I'm thinking through like how what would be the right mix of risk and budget action all those different things so I'm pretty close but it's gonna be there's gonna be a lot of guys a lot of players that are left off and I think that actually mean this is a teaser for the for the audience like there's gonna be a lot of plays that I'm giving away on the sports card strategy show because they're gonna be for players that I can't make them on so okay you got me intrigued so I can't wait till you reveal those five players but no that that helps me understand what you're trying to do but for me to go back to the questions those five players that are always on the list and you know I'm always looking but in terms of like you know what kind of cards I like to target throughout the year yeah it's more like I don't know I feel like it's it's whatever the new set is you know what you know is there do I feel like there's opportunity to go after you know there's always a few cards that everyone wants those are always the cards that are always overpriced so I never look at those but then I always look at the secondary ones and you know and then like I think that that are interesting to not just myself but to other collectors they're you know maybe looking a little bit you know off-broadway so to speak just yeah so those I like to make those fun plays every once in a while too but usually in terms of financial investment I don't I don't go too crazy with those right but but it's fun to just do that to be entertained and to have fun in the hobby so yeah for sure for sure I mean I I saw my profit margin in 2024 dip huge because I just bought into way too many players I just I tried way too many things and it makes sense when you do that you're really like you can't you can't and shouldn't spread yourself too thin if you're if your goal is to basically like have this be a steady source of income because you're not gonna win all your bets and so you might win a couple I'll tell you like Paul Skeens and Caitlin Clark ended up being like my biggest wins in 2024 but then there were there were like other players like say Brees Hall, B. John Robinson and some other like some other guys that yeah end up yielding because I go so deep into so many different areas trying so many different things they eat into that profit margin and so that's where the pick five came from it came from like you can't go so deep you have to box yourself in because then it's it's gonna force me to make smarter decisions it's gonna if I'm looking at a particular players card and I know that I can only buy five players it's gonna make me go deeper into those five players to truly find the deals do the research and yeah and be be care be more careful about things because I think we're all at that we're all at that point of overspending and then trying to figure out how to get out of it and all that stuff. Totally yeah just having a deeper conviction on those five players I like that approach just simplifies things and and I you know I'm gonna save this question for our next episode we do together but because you're more into football than I than I am than us Canadians are generally speaking but to your point you know part of the question was like when do you bail on QBs because this football season has been crazy in terms of like you know expectations not being met by a lot of teams and and how I just wrote a quick list like Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, CJ Stroud, everyone's down exactly so it's crazy to your point if you spread yourself too thin you're like oh one of one of these QBs are gonna hit the five losers are gonna you know bring you under under pressure yeah that's a great point all right we'll talk about I'll talk about that next time there's a good good teaser for the next collab all right man super easy to go 40 minutes with you sorry everyone got got some good stuff I I sure did so thanks Clark same all right see you in the car talk to you soon hey thanks for listening to cards to the moon we'd really appreciate you subscribing to our podcast wherever you listen to your podcast and you can also connect with each of us on instagram at five card guys or you can follow young at integrity sports cards or John at trade you at recess you can also check us out at five card guys calm thanks again and hope to connect soon