THWC 402: Selling and Buying- Buying and Selling

What is up, everybody? Hobby with Cage. Episode 402 brought to you by Arena Club by card ladder. Use code Cage. Save yourself a couple bucks and buy the Philly Show. National coming up, less than 50 days away. Fanatics Fest coming up. It is next month. Getting excited for both of them, let me tell you. Get excited for this stuff. But let's start off with this. We're going to start with a quote because I've had some great messages the last couple days about the last two episodes. Episode 400, episode 401. Getting people thinking, getting people, you know, talking a little bit about knowing who you are and what you are in the space and what you want to accomplish in the whole deal. And, you know, I've spent some time in the last couple of episodes talking about buying wemby, selling wimby, risk management, not having to sell when you're at the, you know, the tippy top, you know, and managing your risk and, you know, getting 80 of your gains. Maybe you don't get 100 of your gains, but you're also now taking the risk of, you know, a full drop. We talked about AR judges, injuries, the whole deal. I put up my episode yesterday, episode 401, and I don't get that many comments. I mean, it's one of those things. I wish everybody listening now would take a minute and subscribe because every once in a while someone will message me and say, I want to pod. I want to sponsor your podcast. But, wow, you really don't have that many subscribers. And I'm like, I don't know. I mean, I never really asked people to do it, but I guess it's true. I mean, I gained a couple here and there and, you know, I guess I would like to have more. Another ego thing. Somebody wrote a comment in yesterday's episode. I'm gonna read it. It's Advising people to sell is irresponsible, says Jeff Willis. I7U advising people sells irresponsible. You don't know their financial situation. And maybe they believe in the player long term. They're ready to buy more copies at a lower price. You're not smarter being a contrarian. Valid. Jeff. I ask you to subscribe. I mean, you watch every video and you comment on almost all of them. I love you for it. I appreciate the support, but subscribe. You know, I don't think I was being a contrarian. I don't think I've been a contrarian for a while now. I've been pretty, you know, gung ho on this Market pretty pretty bullish on fanatics and what they've done for the space. Pretty bullish on pricing, Pretty bullish on a bunch of stuff. But it is also, you know, it's also reasonable to take a, you know, an inventory of what you have. You know, if you are a listener of the show, and I know you are someone who watches this stuff, you know, every. You know, every quarter or so I do a whole auditing episode. Doesn't make me a contrarian, per se. You know, it's. Some cards have gone up a lot, and, you know, do they have the same type of run left in them or have you maximized the return? You know, could you move that money into something else? And, you know, it's a valid point. I don't know anybody's financial situations. You know, that's why I try not to, you know, specifically say, do this, do that. It's more of, you know, providing a lesson about what I'm doing. And, you know, maybe people learn from that. And, I mean, listen, I've been doing this for a long time. We, you know, like 1500 episodes or something like that. I got 400 plus now solo. If there are, you know, thousand or so doing this, you know, almost every day for the last many years. I mean, basically six years, next month will be six years. I started doing these podcasts, you know, July of 2020. I basically have a subscriber for every day I've been doing it. So, you know, that's pretty terrible when you think about it that way. I've definitely had, you know, runs where I was a big, you know, seller, like a contrarian. And, you know, I don't really love being the bear. I. I like being bullish because, you know, this market has been on a bullish run for a pretty long time, an extended period of time. And if you were bullish about it and you moved your money into the right cards and you bought stuff that you, you, you know, you. You, you thought had upward potential, you're probably doing pretty well for yourself if that's your goal. But it's a reasonable conversation to have. Buying and selling, selling and buying. You know, the. There are two sides to every coin. And. And by the way, Jeff and anybody else, if I'm selling, there necessarily has to be somebody on the other side that is bullish about that card for one reason or another, whether they want to just collect it, own it forever, or because they believe there are some upside there. That's what makes a market. That's what makes a buy And a sell. So you need somebody who's not a contrarian, but you need somebody who's a seller. Otherwise there are no buyers. You need to have a card available that someone's willing to sell at a price and a buyer willing to pay at that price. It's kind of what makes what we do here go round. But enough of that. When I come on here today, buying and selling, selling and buying, I'm curious whether or not you guys ever think this way. Maybe I'm just nuts. Maybe I. Maybe it's just me, maybe I'm a lunatic. But here's my question. You ever decide to sell something, sell a card of a player, and all of a sudden you are in and I'll call it liquidation mode of that player. That ever happened. You ever, you ever find yourself in that position where, you know, you sell a Tom Brady card and then you think he's like, well, I have two or three more of these, might as well sell them all. I'm going to tell you why that happens to me. And I'm wondering whether this happens to anybody else or if I'm just a lunatic. To get to the point in my brain where I am ready to sell the card, usually something's changed or I've convinced myself of something because let's just say I own four Tom Brady cards. I didn't just go to a show and say, oh, I like that card. It's pretty, I'm gonna buy it now. Chances are with the four Tom Brady cards I own, there was some significant research that went into why those are the cards that I want to buy. And in addition to that, it probably are cards that I had to hunt down and probably overpay to get them out of somebody's collection, Chances are they're cards that I probably have held for a little while. So to get to a point where I am ready to sell something that meets that criteria normally, I have convinced myself that either the investment thesis has changed for the player or for the cards or, and this is part of the investment thesis, changing the price has gone up enough where the analysis that you did previously, it no longer applies. You don't have, at least from my, you know, own calculation, you don't have as much potential up upside in the card, so you're ready to move that card. So, you know, if you saw a Tom Brady card that you had to search for and hunt for and, and you name it and, you know, you thought it was worth, you know, 50 or $60,000, but you were able to Find one for, you know, 15 or 20, you buy it. But if now someone, a few months later is offering you 40, 45, or 50, could the card still be worth 60 or 70? Sure. Would you buy it at 15 or 20 if it were available again, sure. Would you buy it at 45 or 50? And that becomes the question, because now you've realized some of that gap. When you did the analysis of what makes that card special, what makes that card worth what it's worth, why it's underpriced. At that time, there was this gap in value. People had not figured out yet that this card you could buy for 15 really should sell for 50 when it gets to 40. That analysis is very different, and at least in my brain, and there's some psychology to it, right, where, you know, you have to, you know, get to a point in your mind where you're like, all right, I'm ready to let it go. And for me, that's a very interesting thing, because once I get to that part about, about a player, I'm basically there on every card I own for them if the number is right, if the number makes sense at that time. And I'm curious whether or not that's something that happens with any of you guys. I'm sure there's more to it than just, you know, the. The, you know, it reaches the number, it's at a sale price you want. It's sort of like. And maybe it's the hoarder in me, you know, I mean, you guys have all seen the pictures. You know, when I find a player I like, I buy as many as I can. When I find a card I like, I buy as many as I can. And. And, you know, maybe it's because once you're willing to sell a card of that player or one of the cards of that stack, the whole I'm hoarding, this is gone. You've now stopped hoarding and started moving, you know, those pieces in my brain, it's like a light switch. And I don't know whether or not that happens to anybody else. I'm very curious in your comments, Jeff Willis. This isn't really contrarian. It's a question. Maybe you can answer it and not yell at me, you know, do you sell your cards? No, probably not. You probably never sold any card in your life. But if you sell, does that make you, you know, more likely to sell, you know, another card? Does that make you more likely to, you know, to move other cards of that player? It would make sense. No, you don't think so. Ian says no. Why not? I mean, it really depends, right? Well, that's not very helpful at all. But it depends, guys. You know, that's. All right. What does it depend on? It depends on what type of card it is. Yeah. All right, like, if you have. You used to. Like if you had a bunch of PSE 10 rookie show a pitching. Yes, I might sell some of them and keep some. Why? But if I have a big Wemby, maybe blue out of 150 auto. Yeah, I'm only. And if I have, like, three of them. Yeah, I'm only gonna sell one I need to sell. Okay, so. So you hang on to one because you've realized some of your potential, but you hang. You sell one because you realize some money. You take the profit and then you let it ride on the other one because it could still go up in value. Yeah, okay. Valid. His brain works better than mine. My brain is the exact opposite. It's sell them all and get rid of them and move on to the next thing and start hoarding something else. And I don't know, maybe I'm crazy, but this is what happens to me. I decide to sell, and they're all gone. Somebody messaged me yesterday. You know, they. They showed me a picture of a messy card that, you know, that was for auction. And it. It started off really nice. It's a dynasty messy. And the pricing was really, like, basically the first day was available. It was more than I thought the card should even be at when it ends. Right. Sometimes that happens. First day, and then it gets no more bids. Golden, you know, for the next 10 days. Sometimes it happens with cards, but, you know, they said to me, I', Wow, that's great. And of course, my brain went to. I have some of these cards. Maybe I should sell mine if they're gonna get to that price. Because, I mean, after one day of bidding, the card is like four times what I paid for it already, so who knows what it's gonna end at? And I think to myself, all right, well, if I'm gonna sell one, I might as well sell them all. Why? Why am I like that? I don't know the answer. I really don't know, but it happens to me every time. And then it bleeds beyond the okay, I sold one Brady. I got to sell all my Brady's. Then I get into my brain of buying and selling, selling and buying that I just want to sell everything and start over. So I sell Brady, I'll sell Messi, I sell Ohtani. I got nothing except, you know, a war chest. Do a little research and deploy that into something else that I could hoard. That's not, you know, you're laughing at me, but, you know, I do this. I think you've said the word hoard more times. Well, because I'm a hoarder in the past 10 minutes. And you have the rest of your life for the horde. You know what that's from? All right, well, look it up. But listen, Jiminy Cricket over here is on my shoulder and he already thinks I'm nuts. I'm sure you guys are listening and watching. I think I'm nuts, too, which is fine. Won't be the first time. 402 episodes. I'm sure you guys have thought I was nuts before for, you know, as Andrew says, you know, you twist your brain into a pretzel. That one actually made sense. Not like, you know, leading a fish to water and teaching it how to drink. That one made no sense at all. Yeah. What? Exactly. Yeah. Anyway, guys, listen, this is where I am now, and I'm curious if you guys are in the same spot because, I mean, I've been real bullish on a lot of cards, but some cards have really appreciated a lot. They've appreciated a lot. And I don't think it's wrong to take stock of what you have. Do an analysis and see whether or not you're still getting the same enjoyment out of that card. See whether or not your thesis for when you bought the card is still intact. And not to put a, you know, a damper on it, but I will tell you, I have a very beautiful Aaron Judge card and active players. This matters even more because that beautiful Aaron Judge card that I had beautiful high offers on no longer has any beautiful high offers. Oh, I'm sure when he comes back and wins the World Series and hits a massive amount of home runs against the Dodgers and it takes him out, people are going to want it again. But right now, the entire conversation that I just had with you about getting with a point where you're going to sell and move your cards, etc. Etc. That rug can be pulled right out from under you and you're no longer, you know, evaluating whether or not this card should sell for 50 or $100,000 because that person who is offering it is no longer offering it because Aaron Judge or whoever else might be. Ronald Acuna yesterday popped a hamstring. It looked like going down first baseline. The same hamstring that kept him out already. I mean, that guy had that massive, you know, stolen base, home run season and then just hasn't been able to stay healthy since there are risks involved. And that's got to get factored into your equation as well. I don't mind doing the judge card. It's, it's. It's a filthy card. I love it. I'm a Yankee fan and I don't mind holding it. And obviously, even when he was healthy and that card had gone up a significant amount, I was not ready to sell that card. I had not gotten to a point where, you know, it. It made sense selling it. Maybe 67. Maybe I got six. Maybe. Maybe I should have sold it. And that is where your brain is. That is where your brain is on somebody. Maybe where my brain is and why it is. I was watching the game yesterday as Auna, you know, pulled up and hurt his hamstring. I mean, I watch every hanky game pretty much, and I see that judge is injured and, you know, having that offer out there on the card that now is not there, that now you wish was there, right? It gets you thinking about, you know, maybe taking a little bit of profit. There's nothing wrong with that. And in the comments, I might get told there is something wrong with that. But that's the whole episode. And I hope you guys enjoyed this one. Episode 402. Can't believe 400 of these. Got a lot of great comments from you guys on a 400 and 401. Great DMS. I appreciate it. You know, somebody pointed out I missed an opportunity I should have, you know, you know, made my episode yesterday, the 401k and talked about, like, retirement portfolios in episode 401, but I didn't. But what can you do? There's an episode brought to you guys by Arena Club by card ladder use code cage. Save yourself a couple bucks. And by the Philly show. Talk to you soon. And you know, how about the special guest appearance from. From Ian. Thank you.