Victor Wembanyama Cards Worth Investing In With Sharp Rise In Number of His Graded Cards?; Ohtani Card Market Cooling Off Anytime Soon?; Ranking Hobby Items Many Collectors Despise

You're listening to Cards to the Moon, a podcast about trading cards from both a collector and investor perspective. We hope you'll stick around for the ride as we take a deep dive into the state of the hobby, share some hot takes, hopefully some useful advice and fun stories along the way. Hey guys, welcome to the Cards to the Moon podcast. This is episode 247 and my name is Clark from 5cardguys.com and 5cardguys on Instagram. Co-hosting with me is Hyung of Integrity Sports Cards and John, who is Tradegyu at Recess and they're both on IG as well. All right, let's just get right into it. Off the top, you already probably heard, but Otani broke another record. This time, it's his 50th home run ball in the season. He hit 50 plus homers and stole 50 plus bases and that ball sold for 4.392 million dollars on Golden Actions. It's insane. I know this is a card show, but I wonder if there are any takeaways here with this sale that also speaks to Otani's card market right now. We'll discuss that, but first, initial thoughts on the Otani historic baseball sale. I think anything right now, Otani is just such a hot commodity. I'm surprised that it went that high, but I'm not surprised at the same time because we've been saying this for the last three years or two, three years where Otani was the injury prone guy and we were off of him and we had so many opportunities to buy cheap to seeing where it is today. I think we've learned to not be surprised of another Otani record, but it shows a lot. It shows a lot that memorabilia is very strong. It has a place in the space. It's an asset class, like we said. It's something that I think other people look to park their money because they enjoy the entertainment side. They enjoy the bit of gambling side, but they also believe in the future potential of, I guess, part of history. I think as long as entertainment and marketing exists, stuff like this will always be on an upward trend. We've been saying it. We're in the beginning of, I would say, this whole market. The sports card market in general, it's been around for, at the end of the day, 50, 60, 70 years plus. It's still on an upward trend. I see the correlation right now and what Fanatics is doing to milk every single penny out of it while they're growing it. I know these prices aren't sustainable. Don't get me wrong. We've witnessed a lot of these hyped models where it explodes. Even card releases, the Wembi. We talked about Topps Mercury. Everything has its burst and then the re-correction. Cut down. Exactly. Where you play in the game is what we're all trying to do, I guess, on a daily basis now. I guess what we're trying to preach on the overall perspective is collect what you love and see it in the bird's eye view of long term. What holds value and what is collectible in the long run. Sure. Yeah. John, what do you think? Well, my first thoughts are rich people have way too much money. They'll always be true. It is true. Yeah. John kind of touched on it, like 4.3 million. I get it. It's a very special ball and it's Otani. The hype is crazy right now. So we expected it to sell for a lot. But my goodness, 4.3 million dollars. I mean, I don't know. I have to think that this just went to a super rich, super fan. Because if this was an investment, I just don't see the upside in spending that much money on that ball. Like it's a special ball. But is it? I don't know. Is it like that crazy special? I don't know. Like Otani is crazy. He might do something even better next year or the year after or whatever. He might have a Cy Young MVP season in one season and then that ball will be worth, I don't know. Is that 8 million dollars? It's crazy. 60-60 next year. Yeah. No, it's crazy because just to put it into context, it surpassed Mark McGuire's 70th home run ball, which sold for just over 3 million. And then more recently, Judges' 2022 62nd home run ball, right? When he broke the Yankee record. And that sold for 1.5 million. So if you had millions, just say you're one of those super rich people, what is the best value? Which ball has the best value, do you think? I would say Judges. I think Judges. 1.5? Yeah, because it's a New York. I mean, all three pieces, I think they're museum pieces. Let's be real. These are pieces that belong in potentially like Cooperstown. Sure. Right? So, yeah, it should be in the millions. But I think looking back, I think Judges is the bargain right now. Because, I mean, who knows? That record could be broken again. But in a New York Yankees uniform, I think that's where it becomes very, very special, right? He broke something that's, what is it, 60 plus years. And I think that's iconic when you look at it the long term, right? And same with Otani. But as of right now, I think the significance of New York Yankees is, I would say, the largest market cap team in MLB. And it has been. And it's won enormous amounts of world championships in the past, I'd say, 30, 40 years, right? So I would say that Judge ball is the value right now. Nobody really, I think, everybody forgets about Maguire, right? And they would say, oh, it was the steroid era, blah, blah, blah, right? And then the Otani, you could argue that it was overpaid. So that's my take, Judge. Interesting, because when you say he broke the record, I mean, that's a knock on the Judge ball too, right? It's just a Yankees record. It's not like MLB record. It is, but history repeats itself. It's like, why is Mantle Maris? Why are all these Yankees known? And why are the Yankees the Yankees at the end of the day, right? It's been the team of Major League Baseball the last 100 years at the end of the day. Hmm. Good point. Which one are you taking, John? Oh, this is tough. Because it's like the two outside of unless you're from LA or New York, like, I don't think anybody is really rooting for any of them. But I think selfishly because I have some vested interest in Juan Soto and I like Juan Soto. I'm going to cheer. I guess I'll cheer on the Yankees. I don't know. That sounds kind of blasphemous as a Jays fan. That's borderline blasphemous. But I was asking more about which ball would you take? But we'll answer that question too. Sorry. Edit that out. No, no, no. We're keeping it all in. I was moving my chair. I wasn't really going to pay attention to much, admittedly. Yeah. So which ball are you taking? The Maguire, Judge or the Otani at their values? The Maguire was $3 million. Yes. Oh, man. That's a lot. I don't think I understand the ball market. That seems insanely high for all three. But I just think because it's so high, I'm going to side with Hyun and say the Judge ball might have the most potential in terms of investment upside just because it's valued so much lower than the other two. Yeah, that's true. I could side with that as well. But I think this might sound crazy. I might just go for the Otani ball. I would like the Otani ball. Yes. You know, I'm like, this is even more historic than the Judge ball. And I know the whole Yankee factor, but I think I'd go for the Otani. John skipped ahead. But who are you picking for the World Series? Hyun? Man, I'm going to say, I'm not going to lie. I do want LA to win. I just want to see the Cinderella story end with Otani. We've gone this far with Otani. Might as well go all out. And what else are you going to do? 50-50 with a World Series championship ring would be the icing on the cake. So I'm going to go with LA. I want to see it happen. I think Major League Baseball wants to see it happen. I think everybody kind of wants to see it happen. So you know what? Life is interesting in this world today. So let's just, yeah, I would love to see Otani win it. Yeah, you know, this is so difficult because, you know, can I forgive Otani for just shunning the Jays? Like, am I over that? I'm not sure I'm over that. Will, our friend Will and I have this side conversation saying how much we hate Otani because of that. I don't think he can hate Otani. No, you've got to be over it because that was all fake news. We all found out. Okay. We never had a chance to begin with, so you can't put that on Otani. And, you know, the Yankees are the Yankees. We're in the AL East. There's a long history if you're a Jays fan. So you know what? I guess I'm going to go for the Dodgers too, but begrudgingly. I think if you're not in L.A. or in New York, a lot of people are begrudgingly just choosing one of those two teams to go all the way. But this is like the MLB's dream, right? For these two teams to make it to the finals, to the championship. So it should be great. Now, last question before we go on. With the Otani market being so hot and, you know, anything he touches is gold. Is it a good time to buy, even now? Because, you know, it just seems like if you even look at the car ladder index for Otani, it's just going up and to the right, you know, in terms of the chart. Or do you just got to wait? Because this is, I don't know how much more sustainable it could be. We've been saying this for a couple of years now, actually. So your thoughts? I personally don't think it's sustainable at these prices, but we don't know where the top is. Right. So that's the battle, I think. Because Otani keeps on doing these things. And what I will say is this. I think from a monthly perspective, it's not the right time to buy. If you're looking at it from an annual perspective, it might be the right time to buy. The right cards. So there are cards that I think are undervalued. There are cards that I think are overvalued. So in my opinion, I think there's a buying opportunity if you look at it in the annual lens, where you're looking at long-term hold. I'm going with numbered rarity. Potentially a non-auto. Because I think autos in general are super, super expensive. Rightfully so. There's going to be always a demand for the auto. But I think there's really good buying opportunities on lower numbered cards compared to other comparables. And if you look at it in an annual perspective. I think if you look at it in a monthly perspective, there might be better buying opportunities where you can get it cheaper, but you're risking, hey, if Otani does win a World Series, what are prices going to look like? Do they fall down? And I think they will eventually. But like I said, it goes back to we don't know where the top is. That's the problem. We could be in the middle still. So it might be a good move. It might be a terrible move. Because if it does crash, we've seen it with Lukas, people who are holding the Luka bags. But at the end of the day, the really rare Lukas, I think, still sustain themselves. Because if you believe in kind of the player's ability, everything else from a supply-demand will crash if it doesn't have that fundamental. But if you're holding something that's super rare and Luka becomes Luka or Otani continues to do Otani things, then, yeah, you're going to enjoy that card. And it would be a great buy in the long run. Yeah, makes sense. I think conventional wisdom will tell you don't touch anything with a 10-foot pole. I mean, it's pretty clear any player involved in the World Series right now, pricing is going to be pretty crazy. But I think, like Hyung said, and this doesn't really apply to us or a majority of our listeners, but if you're in the top 0.1% of rich collectors, there is an argument that right now might be the time because some crazy... If you're holding onto a crazy Otani card, like a Bowman, Red, Auto, or a Super Fractor, there's an argument to list it now and take advantage of the crazy hype. So for a crazy collector with a ton of money, this is also the opportunity to get a card like that because it finally shows up on the market, right? So to the tiny percentage of super collectors, I think you can make an argument this is the time to get it because these crazy cards come out of the woodworks out of nowhere, right? But for the rest of us collecting $100 Otanis or $1,000 Otanis or whatever, as you want to and you feel like you're about to miss out, I don't know, I would do your best to kind of refrain from spending money right now because I'm sure at some point the pricing will cool off. Yeah, I agree with both of you. You know, what I didn't mention right away was when you look at the card ladder index, there's been two dips in the last two years, right? And those dips both came on the same month. It came in November, okay? So there was one in November 2023 and another dip in November 2022. But the peaks have been higher afterwards both times. So the base is a lot higher. So this next dip will be like close to the 2023 peak. Do you know what I mean? So that seems to be this kind of, you know, oscillating pattern but every time the base is a bit higher. So I think that's what you can probably expect from Otani cards, especially this historic year that he had. So if the pattern or if the trend continues, wait till November to pick up your cards and then that might be just a good general rule for Otani cards. So just quickly, if you look at the Soto chart and the Judge chart, Soto, because during the pandemic, it just skyrocketed exponentially. It's come down a lot since those two years 2021-22. But it has been seeing a more gradual increase in the last couple years. So it's not spiking like Otani. But the thing is with Judge, it's come down since the historic 2022 campaign. But that's been on a sharp upward trend in the last six months. So Judge cards are really high again. So you might want to wait for the small dip in the offseason as well. There you go. All right. We'll see. We'll see how these cards do. I'm kind of following, you know, what you guys said. They're on my watch list but I'm just waiting. I'm just waiting. Yeah. So all right. Let's move on to hobby headlines. So Gemwright, they updated their top 50 most graded athletes list. And I thought we could use this segment to go over some of the key findings and discuss any potential implications from it. All right. Now, the data that's getting the most attention is the skyrocketing number of cards graded for Victor Wembenyama. For context, from this past summer, about three months ago, Wembenyama was 24th on the list of the top 50 with 280,000 cards graded. You know, across the four major graders, right? So that's PSA, BGS, SGC, and CGC. Fast forward to now, he sits 15th on the list, passing Shaquille O'Neal with 430,000 cards graded. So the question is, with such a high pop count, and a fast growing one, is it worth investing in Wemby cards now? I think it goes back to, we kind of have the same blueprint as Otani. Right. Because, and that's the thing. Wemby is very interesting because I don't know the numbers, but I assume at least half of them have to be unlicensed at this point. And that's where you have a lot of disagreements, I guess, on Wemby's cards. Some say unlicensed is worthless. Some say it will hold its value. I'm on the believer that it's going to hold its value in terms of the rare, super rare autos at the end of the day. The numbered autos and the ones that people think is a bargain in the annual lens, right? In the yearly lens. So I think maybe 80% of Wemby's cards will be probably, I would say, not worthless. Because if Wemby does things that Wemby is capable of doing, and he has a promising, very promising career, and the ability to take San Antonio, I think to, this is his perfect test, kind of like Bobby Wood Jr. You know, KC Royals was kind of like, what type of team are they? They're going to build around Bobby Wood Jr. And then Bobby Wood Jr. has an MVP-like season and takes the Royals into the playoffs. That's the type of expectation Wemby has. And I think he can be that guy. So I think there will always be some sort of value as long as Wemby does perform. But I think a lot of the prices aren't realistic. Having 430,000 cards out there, you got to remember, it's a supply-demand game. What's the priorities in cards, one? What do people value? How much supply is out there? And then for the base cards, I think of it as this. If I'm a kid and I run into a Wemby base card that ends up becoming 80 bucks, a PSA 10 base that tanks, I'd still be happy, to be honest. You know what I mean? So I think there's a card for everyone, which I do like because I think that's the best marriage for any sports fan out there. You need the Wembys to be Wembys. You need the Otanis to be the Otanis because that's what keeps the excitement of the sport and also the health of these prices. And like I said, a lot of these cards are going to be very high right now because it's at its peak. And we've seen many cases where it's the same story over and over and over and over again. But like I said, that's part of the hobby is recognizing these patterns and understanding other people want to buy right now, which is fine, right? When is your time? And are you monitoring these prices now as a good buy or whenever that seems to be? So I think in general, that's a lot of cards to be graded. We're going to see obviously a correction, but I think in the long run, people are going to be like, remember that time we thought Wemby's cards were high? That was a bargain. It was the same thing like Otani. We said the same thing like Otani. It's like, oh, these Otani autos are so expensive. Man, I'm telling you, if you drop five grand on the Otani auto a couple of years ago, you would have done really, really, really well right now. So it's the same situation as Wemby. I think if you believe in his talent, then I think with a rare card, I think it will hold its value. And I'll make my last point. I think in the long run, the licensed stuff, so the Panini stuff that are non autos, I think will have great value. I think there will be always the demand for that product. And then for the unlicensed, it's only the autos that I think would carry that value. So you have the best of both worlds. Whether you're unlicensed or licensed, that actually matters. Then there's something for you at the end of the day if you believe in Wemby. Nice. I like that Wemby Otani comp. That's a good one. You know, we've preached so many times that don't – like I personally wouldn't touch any rookie that's from years one, two, and three just because the hype is just so incredible. Wemby is – but I do understand because Wemby is a little different. We're not talking LaMelo. I'm not going to diss Anthony Edwards, but I guess maybe I am. I don't think we're even talking Anthony Edwards. We could be looking at a quasi-generational. I don't know if I quite put him there, but I think a lot of people might. And I think there's good reason to. And for somebody like Wemby where the hype is so strong, and normally I would be like, you know what? Don't touch these guys in their first couple of years because the hype is too crazy. But if you're buying a Wemby card now, I think it's a – I don't think it's a horrible thing, but you have to be ready to be liquid. Like if you're going to buy – if you think, oh, I think Wemby is going to be generational. I'm going to buy a nice Wemby card and hold it for the next 20 years. I don't think now's the time because I think four or five years from now that card you're looking at, and then you already wanted to invest in it for 20 years, is going to come down greatly. But if you're in this for the short run, is Wemby – I think most people think Wemby is going to have a crazier year this year than last year. And I think that's pretty accurate. I think he will. So is there opportunities to kind of take advantage of the volatility in a player like Wemby in the next couple of years? There is. So if you're in the game to play right now, spend a grand, hopefully cash out at $1,500 and keep playing that game right now for Wemby, I think there is some opportunity for that for sure. But if you think Wemby's long-term hold, now is not the time to buy a player like Wemby. Wait till the fourth year, wait till the fifth year, wait till the sixth year. Maybe he doesn't have any rings by then and people are going to be like, oh, he's amazing, but he doesn't even got no rings, right? Like that's what happened to Luka. Luka is – I think he's as close to generational as you can get and he's got no rings. So his price is just, you know, he didn't, he made it to the finals last year and it didn't do too much for his pricing, right? So I think you can see that for Wemby unless he really starts to do some special things. So I would, yeah, that's kind of the approach I would take. I feel like John has a really, really high bar to be considered a generational player. Wemby's pretty close to me, you know, even in year two. I don't know. And Luka, Luka's there already for me. So, yeah, but no, I get your point. I definitely get it because one of the things I was going to ask is that you kind of alluded to it, but, you know, John coined this term, the lull period might be the time to pick up cards like these, you know, potentially generational players, right? And it's also because, you know, in their third, fourth, fifth seasons, I wonder if tops will slow down in printing their cards. You know what I mean? Like in the rookie seasons, you get it. They want to pump it out because that's where the hype is. But, you know, like if you look at number 12 and number 13 on that top 50 gem rate list, number 12 is Luka, number 13 is Ja Morant, and they're at 472,000 cards graded and 475,000 cards graded for Ja, respectively. And I bet you 90% of that was during the first two seasons. You know what I mean? And now they're in year three, year four, that print production has decreased a lot. So I wonder if you wait around then for Wemby, that the prices will start to stabilize a bit. Do you know what I mean? Because you got your rookie cards in. And the one thing about Wemby is, you know, because of the whole license and unlicensed period, we're in this transition phase, that's an added wrinkle or an added factor you have to consider. Because honestly, I still don't know which one's going to do better. The unlicensed, you know, autograph cards or the licensed non-autos, you know, during his rookie year. And when Hyung was talking about that, you know, if you want to play it safe, get one of each. Get an unlicensed auto and a licensed, you know, non-auto rookie card. And then that'll be a good hold, right? I was going to say one more take, but Hyung kind of stole it from me already. It was that the high pop count, I think, can be a good thing. Because for the reason of a lot of these cards are actually, I believe like the pictures I've seen on Twitter or on X, a lot of those cards are base cards graded out of the, you know, the 400,000 plus. And I think those cards are just going to plummet in value over the years. But to your point, Hyung, if they're 20, 30 bucks in two, three years, I think there'll still be a market because Wemby's going to have that many fans. And especially young fans that can afford these base PSA 10 cards, that will be just great for their PC, you know? So I think overall, you know, generally we think high pop counts are bad, but I think it could be good for collectors mainly in the mid to long term. As long as they perform. As long as they perform, that's an important asterisk. And yes, so I guess that's one factor with Wemby too, right? That he stays healthy. And that's, of course, never guaranteed. All right, I want to kind of point out other key findings before we go on to the next segment. I don't know when Jamerate's going to update this top 50 list, maybe three, four months from now, but definitely going to pass Luka, definitely going to pass Jamerant, like I mentioned. I think one place above him is Barry Bonds, 438,000. And then Mike Trout is 479,000. And Barry Bonds, Mike Trout, makes sense. They've been around for a long time, but you know, their cards are, in terms of the number of cards graded, are slowing down, obviously. So yeah, those, Wemby's going to surpass those guys and probably make the top 10 by the end of the year. I don't think that's out of the question. Thoughts on these three new players in the top 50 though, okay? Three new players made it to the top 50. First, CJ Stroud. Then there's Kevin Durant. And then there's Jalen Hurts. What do you guys think of those three new players? They're sending in Kevin Durant. That's been interesting. Whoa, is that a slight on KD? No, no, no. It's just, you usually see it with more modern stuff, right? Like you don't see older cards kind of pop unless, you know, because the pop counts were totally different in terms of production in Durant's era, right? Unless, yeah, no, that's a good question because that's what stuck out to me too. Unless it's the tops now, Olympic cards, maybe that's bumping it up a little bit. I would think that that would have to do with it. You know, something that was more modern and more relevant in today's time that allowed people to kind of send it into grading. So I wouldn't think they're rookie cards because the print run would have probably been like way lower at that time, right? So, but yeah, that's interesting. CJ Stroud and Jalen Hurts, they don't necessarily surprise me because everybody's looking for the next Mahomes and Brady. So it's like, who is it going to be? Let's, you know, if Do you believe in any of those talents? You're like, okay, I'll roll the dice. I'll send these in for grading in case they do pop, right? So I don't think it's a bad play or it doesn't not make sense. If that. Yeah. I got it. Yeah. See, he's proud of his sense because of the hype. Jalen hurts. I'm a little surprised. I figured he'd already be on the list, but for him to be going on it now, it's kind of like a little bit old news. And then KD, I bet you even the fact that the guy changes teams every year and has a brand new fan base every year probably has some sort of factor to it as well. That's a good point. Yeah. And you know, KD, I feel like he's been, you know, he's always in and out of the news cycle, right? Something he says, something he does, right? And then, you know, he's tail end of his career. I think maybe some people are looking to, you know, anticipate him retiring, you know, he's a hall of famer for sure. So that might be a factor. What Jalen hurts though, I feel like it's funny when you say old news, like he was in the Superbowl, what 2023. So it wasn't that long ago, right? But I wonder if Jalen hurts is that type of player now that he's has good regular season stats. He's on a good Eagles team again this year, Superbowl contenders, right? Like, is he the type of player you think that the value of his cards will only increase at this point if he wins a Superbowl, if he goes all the way? I think he can be, because like I said, in this sport, you gotta win. You gotta win. And that's the, everybody chases Brady and that's the difference maker. It's like Mahomes at the end of the day always shows up and win. So it's like that quarterback, can you be consistent enough to win? And I think two years ago, Jalen hurts had like a 14 one record. That was, you know, it was crazy where, you know, the Eagles, you know, we're totally different team, right? So I think he has that potential because he's still young. He's 25, 26 years old, and he has the experience. So I think a lot of people are looking at that framework and saying, okay, this guy has the potential to be the next Mahomes. Or I will bet on this guy over like whoever it is, like a Joe Burrow or, you know, Justin Herbert or, you know, Josh Allen, right? So. Yeah. Yeah. 100%, he's, that's pretty much what it is. Like I think players that are getting in outside of the hype early years and they're kind of getting into the years four, five, six, seven, especially in sports where championships is kind of the barometer of your legacy, like 100% at this point, he's gonna be, he's in that Lucas stage where you gotta show out now. Like you gotta have rings for me to invest long-term money into not just hype anymore. For sure. I agree. I forgot one more thing I want to mention before we close out this segment, something that's not on the top 50 list, but related to what we're talking about is another stat I saw recently on social media, and that's the Panini downtown Donruss football cards. And I know you've seen those news of the guaranteed oversized downtown cards in those Donruss football boxes you can get at Costco. I think it's only in the States because I didn't see that in Costco Canada. But what I wanted your thoughts on was the pop count for these regular Donruss downtown football cards, right? It went from 381 cards graded by PSA for the 2018 downtown cards, all the way up to 9,230 downtown cards in the 2023 set. I don't know if that's surprising to you or not. It's pretty surprising. I would think that they would short print it a little more and respect the brand, but maybe it's something that will contrast or compliment the value of 2018 downtowns and earlier downtowns, right? So it's like, hey, maybe if it's that popular, if it's gaining that much popularity now as a brand, let's just say the downtown is a brand, right? People see downtown as, hey, I don't care, I want a downtown. And those Costco boxes, I'll say, those oversized downtowns look phenomenal. I think I'd be pumped to have one of those. I think they look great. They're good looking cards. So I think there's fans of the downtown set and brand. So I just think that it compliments the earlier downtowns a lot more because a lot more people like it. So people are buying into it, but then at the same time, it shows true value of a supply demand monster on the earlier sets like 2018, 2019. So I'm surprised that they would go that route, but at the same time, if it's selling, if it's working, then more power to it, I guess. But like I said, you could extrapolate data from that and make better purchases based off that. Are downtown still K-sets? Not anymore. I don't think so. Because, well, it depends on how many they're printing, right? They used to be. Isn't that what they were before? Yeah, I mean. Yeah. Yeah. I don't know when it stopped, but you know, when you see breakers getting, oh, we got 20 downtowns in this case. It's like, holy smokes. I know. Yeah. Man, I don't know how I feel. Like I could understand the argument. It's kind of getting washed water down, you know? But at the same time, I feel amongst all of the K-sets, kind of like the winner of like the coffee pot era. Remember like, what was it? It was like Keurig and Tassimo or something. And you know, eventually like a winner kind of comes out on top. I feel like sort of downtown and Kaboom are like that except in the sort of K-set card era. Sure, I get it. They're sort of like the winners that have come out on top. So like Hyung was kind of saying, are they their sort of their own brand now? Like, do they have sort of like long-term state power? I think I do see an argument. I'm still a little bit hesitant, but yeah. I don't know. I still reserving my thoughts on this. I gotta think about it a little bit more. Yeah, I mean, everyone knows what downtown cards are now. So there's definitely brand power in it, but yeah, it doesn't surprise me actually too much because it just seemed like, you know, more recently everyone's getting downtown cards. And it doesn't also surprise me because it's Panini. You know, they're gonna go, you know, they're about to lose their license. They're like, how do I make the most money possible? That makes sense too. This is the way to do it, right? So whatever's in high demand, you know, you print more of, so that makes sense. But going back to the oversized downtown, I'm not sold on it, but how do you even, like, can you get a top loader for that? Like, how do you even? You can, you can. There are top loaders that size, yeah. Yeah, there are, but yeah, like I seen a lot of these. I haven't seen anything that's the same as like box topper. Yeah, it's a box topper size, but maybe bigger. It's like five by seven, I want to say. Like, but. Put it in a picture frame. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You can put it in a picture frame, legit. I'll remove my kids and then put it in a. See, something like that, I don't think I would get graded. I think I would just, you know, it's more of a picture frame kind of card where it becomes an art piece, right? Where it's like, you don't want it in a slab. I don't want to carry a freaking five by seven slab, right? I don't know, but like, I think it looks phenomenal. I would enjoy that because, yeah, it's just, I think it's, the card looks good. The card looks amazing. Like, and I will say this about the downtown. I remember I never ripped football and it was, I forgot what year, but I pulled a Derrick Henry downtown out of retail and I was pumped. I was like, this is great. Send it in for grading, PSA 10, and sold it for like 400 bucks. I don't know what, it's probably higher now that Derrick Henry's, you know, having a season right now, but like for me, that's what I remember about the downtown. I'm like, wow, like this is such a strong brand and demanded card out of a non-rookie that sells so well. And to me, everybody who collects in that game, whether it's basketball or football, like downtowns are probably one of the strongest brands out there and Kabooms too. It's like in football, Kabooms are, it's crazy. You can never say, oh, these will lose value because I think there's enough people that went through this era of, I remember when the downtowns were the chase and they, because football seems very different than baseball, I'd say football and basketball, where what they value, for instance, a parallel in football or basketball might not be as demanded in baseball where a parallel auto, where inserts in baseball aren't demanded in baseball as it is in football and basketball, right? So there's always that. I don't see it switching. So I think there's such a big demand for that brand. And you're right, Clark, thinking about this, it's like Panini's on its way out. So it's like they haven't made much money off of keeping things scarce, right? Because they're not making money off the secondary market, right? So it makes sense that they turn on the print presses and get as much money as they can right now while they can. Totally. Yeah, that's all to say. Going back to what we're discussing for this segment, just watch out for the pop count. But yes, there's some cars that are just being mass produced. So yeah, keep an eye out for that. All right, let's move on to a new segment I'm calling Rank It. It's a new one, and I thought of it because I thought this could be funny, just depending on how it goes. But what I want you guys to do is to rank from the one you like most, which will be number one, to the one you like least, which will be number five, okay? So rank from number one to five, most to least. And what makes this challenging, I think, is that I try to think of things in the hobby no one really likes, okay? So you might be like, what do I like the least? I don't know, you'll see what I mean, okay? All hobby-related items. All right, so I'm gonna give you guys a list and then you guys tell me from number one to five how you would rank it. First on the list, an obviously off-centered card, okay? Two, a triple on-card auto with one dud player on it. Three, dual autograph card, but both stickers, okay? Four, and we kind of talked about this, cards in oversized slabs, okay? And five, I got this idea from Will in our group chat, highly photoshopped cards, like the Bobby Wood Jr. Bowman rookie. Yeah, his face looks totally weird in that. All right, so just quickly, obviously off-centered card or triple on-card auto card with one dud player on it, dual autograph card, both stickers, cards in oversized slabs, and highly photoshopped cards. Wow. Who wants to go first? I gotta write this down. What was it? So photoshopped, triple auto with a dud, dual sticker, what else was there? Cards in oversized slabs, and highly photoshopped cards. What else was there? Cards in oversized slabs, and an off-centered card. An off-centered card. Oh my goodness, what is this? Sorry, what was the first? I got triple auto, oversized, off-centered, dual auto, and photoshopped. Cards in oversized slabs, and photoshopped. Okay. I don't mind the Bobby Witt photoshop that, like now that I see it, I know Will always brings it up, but I don't seem to mind as much. I just see it as an iconic image because that's what I've chased. I've never looked at that face, and now you see it, you can't unsee it. So it's kind of like, but I would say a lot of cards are photoshopped, but if it's heavily photoshopped, I think that would be, I guess, the biggest thing. But for me, I would say dual auto, sticker auto, I'll take that as number one. I'm gonna go, I'm gonna probably go triple auto number two. Because if you have two out of the three, I think it's still a good card, and it's a great story, because if you have that third auto, that's a nobody. It's like, you start researching who that is, and you know, it's a great story to tell. I would go three, because there's photoshopped cards everywhere. I don't really, that's not the first thing that comes to mind. Even like the Victor Wenbinyamas, I know some of them are photoshopped backgrounds and stuff like, I don't mind it. It's part of the hobby, especially like Tops Chrome Cosmic. You'll have photoshopped cards, of course they're photoshopped. So it doesn't bug me as much unless you keep on bringing it up, and then my attention goes to it, then I guess that. Then I would say oversized card for me, in a slab. And then off-centered has to be the worst. For me, I appeal, I'll take a damage corner, damage edge over off-centered card, because for me, I would enjoy the card. Like I said, I would enjoy a low-graded MJ rookie that has a bad corner, and that's why it's a PSA four or PSA five. Crack it out. for what it is don't well don't crack it out because it still has value but like uh that has a lot more value to me than something like a a damage corner so off-centered cards is bad it's unless that's like that's your like i know some people like they grade the super off-centered card that ends up getting a sgc1 or a psa1 right and then that's what they like to collect and if that's your case i can't help you but yeah off-centered cards are bad for me all right okay that's good that's good um john what's your one to five okay i think one will's gonna hate this but i think one is easiest for me and that's the photoshop card interesting because if it's a photoshop card but it's the main rookie card of the dude it's annoying but you're still gonna collect it right if i found out kobe's rookie tops chrome was photoshopped i'd still want it like it's still the card the go-to card that i want right so in terms of what i would actually have in my collection the photoshop card is probably what i'd likely have in the collection so that's one all the rest i probably wouldn't have so at this point it's like i think two is the on card triple with the one dud interesting it's i don't love it but i i you know if somebody told me hey i'll for 300 bucks i'll give you this card and it has kobe on it and i don't know gary payton and andrew bynum i'll be like uh well i think i think i'd still want it like i put it in the collection but it's it's you know number two three the dual sticker uh i can't believe i'm saying this but i'll put the dual sticker three because there's some cool new stickers like if it was like watani each row but it's a dual sticker i'll i'll still take that you'll still take it yeah that's a great card cool and then let's say the card looks really beautiful but just happens to be sticker ah i hate sticker but i'll take that uh or i'm gonna i'm actually gonna put off center at four i don't like either but i could still see myself owning some vintage off-center card definitely not anything new like prism but like a vintage off-center jackie robbins and something like that i'll take that for 100 percent and at five the oversized slab get that out of my i can't stand i chose that one for john specifically you can't stand those giant oversized slabs that's ridiculous oh man this is uh yeah you know what we're kind of similar in in like some of these so mine number one the dual autograph both stickers you're to your point if it's otani ichiro i don't care you know like if it's a sticker or not it's a cool card the design of the card itself is cool i'm taking that all day every day first number two kind of what you said john i don't mind the highly photoshop cards both of you said you know like it's it's it's one of those things you know like i didn't really notice until will mentioned about bobby wood now i can't unsee it you know so it's annoying that way but whatever you know like you were saying to john if it's their main if it's the first bowman chrome autograph card i'm still buying it right so that's number two number three i don't hate this as much as john cards and oversized slabs wow you know it's it's not ideal but i'll take it whatever you know um number four i think this bugs me more than obviously more than you guys the triple on card with a dud player i think i'll end up resenting that dud player just looking at that card every time you know it's like oh why didn't you work out or you know it's like akunia akunia soto lewis urias vladdy patis kira right yeah exactly like that that would bug me just if i had that on display like yeah just ignore that third player you know um and five is i'm with hyung the obviously off-center card i appeal yeah it will bug me the most all right you know what i'll do another version where it's like five really good things instead of bad things that might be i don't know if that'll be easier or harder but we'll try it out next time all right let's finish our episode uh this week with our regular weekly segment we call pick one and this is when each of us we choose two cards and then we debate which one we would rather invest in all right so hyang do you want to start things out for us sure we're gonna go uh baseball with uh with two players and i want to highlight some of their numbers because it's interesting at this point you got aaron judge um who's obviously been a monster a lot past four seasons and then you got mike trout they're both the same age i'm not sure if you guys are aware okay they're both the same age um judge's career war is at 52.8 okay trout's war is at 86.2 okay and they're the same age i personally think trout we had this uh discussion on on on the cards of the moon five card guys post that i think trout is going to be a hundred plus war guy so i still believe trout in the long picture it's like wow we're gonna see that trout because you got to remember position players modern position players in the top i guess uh tier of 100 plus war you're talking about barry bonds a rod ricky henderson modern players that's probably it so trout's gonna still be spent i and that's the thing people think trout is it's game over was his prices very high yes but i still think there's value in trout with that said trout leads every single offensive category right now to date over aaron judge in terms of like obviously hits runs home runs rbis just because trout's been in the league for 14 seasons versus aaron judge's nine they're both the same age trout leads judge by about 30 war with that said we're gonna we're gonna take two cards uh that recently sold on october 19th and 20th respectively one was the aaron judge so i'm gonna send you guys this link because you you guys might have not seen this card before which is crazy i don't know if you guys uh seen every aaron judge card but i don't think a lot of people know that this card exists so i sent it in the link okay and it's basically um the draft night the bowman 2013 bowman draft night so it's same year as the bowman chrome and it's numbered to 10 it's an on-card auto of aaron judge it is a horizontal card a min gem nine five it basically sold for um seven thousand nine hundred and fifty dollars okay so it's not his first chrome but it's almost like an insert auto i would say or ssp auto i'm going to pair that with mike mike trout's 2009 bowman chrome x-fractor rookie auto a min gem so that's numbered to 225 and it sold for 7200 so just a little cheaper and i'll send uh i'll send this link over to you guys as well that's the exact card so those sold for basically the same amount judge a little higher seven hundred dollars more and they were both sold on like in the last three four days what's the better investment um based on everything i said you know i know and i know clark you've you've bought into trout at a higher price so i want you to take that out of the equation okay don't let personnel bias you're you're a fresh start you've broken even on that trout yeah and now prices have come down even more what are you guys buying clark's pain seeing the price of the x-fractor i can feel it through the screen that's the cheapest the x-fractor i think has ever sold that's crazy man which which makes sense holy that that's that's tough um you know i used to harp on judge a lot i think i was always a little bit nervous because he would always have a pretty good year and then a bad year and a pretty good year and then you know obviously had a monster year and since then he's been pretty consistent it looks like he you know all those strike i mean he's i think he still strikes out a decent amount but he sort of figured out plate discipline and hyung would know you know and then oh yeah he's here now yeah he he's he's legitimate i think from here on in is he's going to be like a legitimate force he has been um but i think when all is said and done kind of like um uh the uh brent the the sports card uh what's his uh what's his handle again deep value investor a deep value investor thank you and he's kind of he goes after like big cards of players that are going to go to the hall go down as some of the great players and as much as we've knocked on mike trout in the last couple years he's still going to go down as one of the greatest players of all time now his pricing used to be of the reasoning that people thought he's going to legitimately go down as the best player of all time i think that ship has probably sailed but he's going to be up there he's going to be probably up in the conversation of like ken griffey like in that sort of stratosphere and he was such a darling in this hobby for the last decade as the cards boomed again so i'm i think that erin judge card is pretty cool i don't think i've ever seen it it's probably a pretty rare card that has some legs in the future as people start to discover and really go after some rare erin judge cards but man that x x factor is that's like a staple iconic card and i think the pricing in the next 6 12 18 months i i don't see it going any lower than this at this point like that this is probably a good time i don't know like even if my truck gets hurt again and it's not really not looking good i i feel like his legacy in terms of the pricing now is kind of at the bottom so i i think i'm more inclined to go with my trout interesting yeah that's interesting uh while you're talking john let's just i went back and forth like five times so um where i'm landing now is man i like i'll tell you what the what i like about both cards the most i like that the erin judge cards it's just it's numbered to 10 which is insane yes it's super rare right and it's in his rookie year hang on are there only 10 of those there's only 10 it's a numbered out of 10 no way it's not like a parallel or anything like that no no it's it's like a ssp i would say but i would at the same time it's it's the bowman draft night like it's it's it's a known i guess parallel if you're into collect if you're ripping you knew that like these cards existed but they're they were never the front runners they were never the brand of first bowman chrome they always kind of took precedence like if you had a numbered to 10 erin judge i don't even know if they just say a red refractor first bowman chrome that's the card like we're talking that would be the chase but this is kind of like that this is why it costs 7 950 out of 10 or out of 5 first bowman chrome erin judge would be hundreds of thousands of dollars right so yeah so i like that the rarity for sure um but john kind of said it like the the the 2009 bowman chrome card for trout that is the card for trout and it's x factor so it's a lower parallel number 225 right um i did think about like what you said about you know deep value investors thinking that there is a blue there is a gold so there are other more rare parallels which kind of is in my head but at the end of the day in terms of value i agree i think mike trout maybe could dip a little bit more but if he has a solid season and maybe this is where my bias is because i have the the base card if he just has one solid season 10 plus war that's gonna bounce up right whereas erin judge had an amazing season i think that price that that eight thousand dollar value is factored in so you know i don't know how much higher it can go from where it is now so in terms of value in terms of the iconicness of the card and the one bothering you know one thing that bothers me is the horizontal i'm not a huge fan so i'm gonna take a half mark off there so you add up all the marks mike trout wins barely barely wow yeah no no no that's uh it's interesting because i uh i i agree with you guys that like everything you guys said what is the right answer but i think for me like the erin judge and maybe this is why i feel like the first chrome hype is always gonna be there because it's such a strong brand but i think otani kind of broke that mix i think otani broke in a way where it's now cool to be collecting insert autos it's now cool to be collecting any rookie autos it's cool to collect a bunch of his cards not just his because i wouldn't say he has a first bowman chrome yeah you could say his first release was out of the bowman set but at the end of the day it's a rookie auto there was never a first bowman like pre mlb card for him so and i think people think that and that's why because it came out of the bowman set that that's and then his other batting image came out of bowman chrome so it as a rookie auto so there was never a first auto of otani uh first chrome so i think he's broken that mold of there's other cards that are tremendously undervalued and that's what i see with this erin judge card because i think the more people see it they're looking for okay what What would be your next option other than, if it's not a 2013 Bowman Chrome Aaron Judge auto, what would be your next rookie auto or auto card? You guys would all probably gravitate to either Topps Chrome in 2017, that's the first thing you probably look at, or even like a Heritage, Topps Heritage or an auto of that sort. So I think it's a very good older card that is low, super low number that has tremendous legs. And I think it's our bias that we've put so much value into only the first Chrome. And I understand deep value investors point. And I agree that the golds, the orange and the reds, and even the blues, true blues, that's what you want. And if it was Mike Trout at that level, I think I would go with the blue. But in this case, I think it's so low numbered that I think it has potential to do even more than the 7,900 in the near future, right? Just because it's so rare. And it's graded. I don't know the pop count, but I assume that there has to be very little PSE 10s, if any, and then most will fall under a Gem Mint anyway. So I'm going to go with the Aaron Judge. But yeah, I could go both ways on this as well. That's a good one. Yeah, that is a good one. All right, John. All right fellas, we're going to switch gears to a little bit of a lighter price point and we're going to go to hockey. One player that has continually been disrespected and underrated as a superstar, I think Clark already knows where this is about to go. We're going to go Young Guns PSE 10 Nikita Kucherov versus Young Guns PSE 10 Nathan McKinnon. I think on the onset, it seems pretty easy. The McKinnon, they both go for around $575 USD, the latest prices. They're both of older era ilk of Young Guns. So they're not as crazy pop count as some of the newer cards. The McKinnon's at I think around $1,500 pop for PSE 10 and Kucherov is around $500. So it's a lot more rare. And Kucherov doesn't have an SB authentic. What years? Hang on. Do you remember what year? It was the same year, right? 13-14 for Kucherov. 2013-2014 for Kucherov. I think maybe same year. And I think it's actually the same year. Yeah, it's the same year. Sorry. It is the exact same year. Yeah. Yeah. And Kucherov, like that's his main card. He doesn't have rookie autos or anything like that. And what was the price point? They're both around $575, PSE 10. So they're same. It's just Nathan McKinnon has the higher pop count, right? He has the higher pop count. With other cards available. Yes. I'll go first. I feel like John every year tries to get me to choose Kucherov. And I always reject it, but it's a stronger case this year for sure. He had a pretty good season last year, right? Always has been. So even I noticed. But I mean, McKinnon had a great season too, right? And whenever he's healthy, he's always producing. So why I'm going to choose McKinnon, right? But I feel like it's obviously not on the supply side because it's a lower pop count for Kucherov. But I think the demand will always be higher for McKinnon. Canadians it makes sense. Canadians will prop him up every time. And it's like $500 to $1,500, it's significant. But I think the demand is just still higher for McKinnon in general. So that's why I'm going to go for McKinnon. In terms of his Young Guns card, I think that's still really underrated, right? So yeah, McKinnon for me. One year I'll choose Kucherov. I think there's an argument for both. I think Kucherov is the better buy in my opinion, just based on supply demand. Because if it's 33% of basically the print run of or at least the pop count of McKinnon's, I think you have a better, I guess, supply demand buy from that perspective. I do agree with Clark that you're going to have more liquidity with Nathan McKinnon. I think he's also younger. I think both had incredible career years last year, right? So I think they're starting to kind of get into their next, I guess, their peak of their career because Nathan McKinnon is still 29 years old, so super young. He's entering his prime and Kucherov's 31. So at the end of the day, they're both in their prime. I could see both having crazy numbers the next few years, and I think that will increase the demand for both players. I think Kucherov does have the better supply demand, and it's just a matter of time before he gets the respect. So I think with that said, if I was going short term, I would probably go more Nathan McKinnon. If I was going long term, I'd go Kucherov. So I'm going to go Kucherov based on the supply demand and the fact that he doesn't have many other options. I think he's going to finish his career pretty strong. He has probably four, five, six good seasons left in him, both of them, before their numbers start tailing off. So yeah, both had monster seasons last season. So this year, I think both got off to a hot start as well. But I'm going to go Kucherov here. Yeah. Nice. Nice, boys. I think there's no real answer here, and I think the right answer is really depending on the type of investor you are, because I think it's very easy to say Nathan McKinnon because we've all been to the Toronto Expo. We know that if you took a Nathan McKinnon versus a Kucherov, you're going to get some activity with that Nathan McKinnon in terms of trade rate, like 100%. You got the number one overall. I think that was kind of like the reason is everybody has been on Nathan McKinnon because he was the number one overall, as opposed to a second rounder. Right. So, McKinnon, if you're in this game, it's not a long-term hold. You're in it to use it as bait for something else or volatility or whatever. I think there's very much an easy answer in Nathan McKinnon, and he's got the hype, and he got the Canadian fan base contingent, all that stuff, and in terms of long-term, and I'm going to side with Hyun here because I'm just thinking in this instance, I'm just kind of thinking long-term, and to be honest, if I'm looking at my watch list, I have legitimately had this card on my watch list before over Nathan McKinnon, and I think there's going to be a time and place, and I think it's pretty soon that you should get this card and just leave it in your collection somewhere, especially if you're a hockey collector, because I was talking over Thanksgiving with one of my older nephews about the greatest Russians of all time, and you got Ovi, I personally put Datsuk number two, you got Kovalchuk, you got Blake Malkin, and truthfully, I think Kucherov is squeaking up there. I think he is going to go down as, man, he can go right up there with Datsuk. He can go number two. I think Ovi is going to be untouched at one, but when all is said and done, Kucherov could go down. I think he's already in the top five. I think he might have passed Burey, might have passed Fedorov, I don't know. He's getting up there, man, and it's time to stop disrespecting him, and he doesn't have anything else. This is the main card to collect, so I think there's a point in time to buy his card, and I think it's pretty soon, so I'm going to pick Kucherov. Yeah, another good one, man, when you brought up all those names, just good memories, Fedorov, Burey, back in the day. Yeah, no, that's a good one. All right, I will finish off with mine. We'll go back to high end this time for this one. LeBron and Brawny made history the other day. Father, son team. I know how John feels about LeBron, but this might be for him. The two cards, you might be able to guess, is the dual autograph cards. The first one being, of course, the 2023 Bowman U Chrome LeBron James. You remember this card? Oh, yeah. Where they both signed in the same room. I think it was their first one. On card auto, or did you hear about this? The other dual auto, because it's a Topps Now card, it's going to come out, of course. That card, where is it? I'm going to show you on the screen, just to give you guys a better look. The father, son debut, one of one, that'll be randomly inserted. There's going to be a chase. A lot of people are going to buy the base card of this Topps Now, hoping to get this. But the Topps Now father, son debut card, I believe it's also on card auto for this dual auto. Which one are you taking? Can I see the other one? Yep. The Super Fractor sold this one? 114,000 for the first Super Fractor, yeah. For the first. This was last year or two years ago? Two years ago, right? Or last year? It was last year. 2023? Yeah, 2023. Man. That was on card. The Bowman U was on card? Yes. I think there was a video where they were in the same room, both signing. Wow. Okay. All right. This one's tough because, well, for right reasons. Okay. We're not going to discuss Brawny Jr. I'm just kidding. We're talking two equal cards, so we don't have to go and discuss what he can and can't do because it's basically both are similar cards, right? It's like, which one would you rather have? I think the Topps now is pretty cool, just the fact that they're both in a Lakers uniform. I'm trying to extrapolate the good out of these. For me, these are cards that I wouldn't want. I would sell them to LeBron. I would be like, how cool is it to have a one-of-one of you and your son? When's the next time you're going to have a card like that? It's perfect. You could sell it to LeBron. I think I like the Super Fractor better in general, just because it's a Super Fractor, so that's a big plus on that side, the Bowman Chrome U. They're not in NBA uniform, which I like the Lakers, the fact that that's a pretty cool story at the end of the day, regardless of what you think about Brawny Jr. Because we're not talking about that. I'm going to go with the Lakers jersey, one-of-one. I just think people forgot about the Bowman Chrome U. I think right now there's a lot of hype on the Lakers just because of that, and I think if you were to sell that card right then and there because of the hype, I think it would do pretty well, as opposed to buying it at $114K and trying to flip that and thinking you're going to get anything more at this point. So I'm going to go with the Lakers, yeah, Topps Now, one-of-one. It's only a year apart. Okay. This is funny, because the Topps Now is like the ultra-super-manufactured, because it's the Topps Now that people complain is kind of like manufactured rarity. NBA debut, though. It is. And then you have the Brawny nepotism manufactured moment. We're not talking about that. We're not talking about that right now. I'm talking about that. But jokes aside, I don't want to take away from the moment. It was actually a really special moment, for sure, for that family, I think, visually seeing that. It's super cool. For me, I think that's what I like, love most about this, is it's such a special moment for LeBron's family. And the moment was captured into a card, and they're both dual-auto on card. For me, the Lakers, even though it's Topps Now, as a collector, if I really wanted this, it's the Topps Now dual-auto all the way, all day, any day, for sure, for me. I get Women's Chrome, Women's Chrome U, a little bit of manufactured, super-fractured. Yeah, I think visually it's kind of cool, but they're not together. This was the moment everyone was waiting for, whether LeBronny actually ends up having an NBA career or not. This was the legit moment everyone was waiting for, so that's the card for me, for sure. Okay. It's an easy one, I guess, because it's going to be the Topps Now sweep. I think, in terms of historic card, it captures the moment, the father-son duo. I think that's way more important. Yeah, I mean, both these cards could be, you know how we did the previous segment, it could be a dual-auto with one dud player. We're not going to talk about the dud player, okay? We're not talking about that. It could be. But, apples to apples, orange to orange, I'm going to go with the Topps Now Lakers card for all the reasons you guys both mentioned, so, clean sweep. All right. Thanks for listening to another episode of Card Cinema. We appreciate you guys, if you haven't given us five stars and you really enjoyed this episode or our podcast, we would greatly appreciate it if you did. Helps us out a lot, and yeah, we'll have a brand new episode for you next week. Talk to you then. Bye. Hey, thanks for listening to Cards to the Moon. We'd really appreciate you subscribing to our podcast, wherever you listen to your podcasts. And you can also connect with each of us on Instagram, at 5cardguys, or you can follow Hyung at Integrity Sports Cards, or John at TradeU at Recess. You can also check us out at 5cardguys.com. Thanks again, and hope to connect soon. the next, video!!