1558 - Out-Takes from Hobby Hotline 061326

Foreign. Doctor James Beckett Sports Card Insights. Thanks Sponsors Tops Panini Upper Deck Heritage Auctions Hugging the Scott Auctions, Mike Stadium Sports Cards, Burbank sports cards, tomc.com and Beckett Media Beckett Rating Beckett authentication outtakes from the recent episode of Hobby Hotline where I was on with Adam Palmer controlling the commenting as well as my buddy Unc declined. We had a good time. This is about 15 minutes out of the hour and 15 so we went a little over. So here's part of it. As always, I encourage you to listen to the show live and comment. I'm on once a month and it's an adventure every time. Dr. Becket, when you are going to shows something, I've been wondering for a while you have seen millions. I don't know how many cars you've seen in your lifetime, more than maybe potentially anybody. When you're going through dollar boxes or you're going through people's showcases, what are some of the cards that you're looking out for that you like to buy that are up to the standard of the Dr. Beckett collection? It's hard to explain. I think Rich understands it. Basically. I don't want base cards. I don't even want good cards of great players if they're very common. Anything that's in the dollar box is probably because it's not gradable and it's not what notable, not something that's going to grab somebody. And so I'm looking for other stuff that probably lower supply and demand. Adam, Lower supply means you're not going to see it very often. Lower demand is the reason why it's in the dollar box because if it's high demand and low supply, it's wow, it'll be a big price and that's fun. So I'm looking for things I haven't seen. Rich does that to a different degree with his eye for the vintage stuff. I'll do some vintage, but actually, yes, I have handled millions of cards, I'm sure, and it never gets old, but it's still in the dollar box. I'm looking for stuff that I haven't seen. Yeah, that's cool. I'm in a similar boat there with the dollar box stuff. It's just random stuff I think is cool. I come from the graphic design world where that's what I got my bachelor's degree in and then my master's in marketing. So the graphic design was really what drove me into sports cards and then the market followed as a secondary thing. But it was all that stuff is just Very interesting to me. Don't assume that means Adam. I'm looking for beautiful cards. I like ugly cards, too. In fact, sometimes low demand cards are ugly. But if they're low supply and low demand because they're ugly, I may still pick them up because they're low supply, they're more unique. Not every insert concept works equally well. Some are body or primitive. Exactly. Rich. When you're going to shows, what was it that you were looking for? You mentioned to us before the show that you spent your whole budget at the show. Or were you just going with the flow? I go with the flow. I don't look for anything specifically nowadays because the universe is so wide. I could have done other sports, but I stayed in a baseball lane. And the best bar that I picked up, and I was dying to myself when I found it. There was a 2026 Heritage All Star because they used the same design as 1977 tops. And I knew there was an All Star notation variation of Riley Green. When I'm going through the bikes, I said, oh, that's the All Star variation. Okay, I'm buying that car. And then I looked it up. I priced everything I bought last night. So that's very fresh in my mind. And the guy had a nice detailed way of how he broke the card. And I found 25 cards, and he had broken it down. So 25 cards cost me $15. And the Beckett book value, which I think is close to real value in that case is $10 for the Riley Green card. So I was very happy with that card. I figured at this point, everything else is crazy, but that's something I knew. I get that because Jim and I both have the ability to know what we've not seen before. And I recognized immediately that's a different design on the All Star. Okay, that's a good card to buy. And both of us look for stuff we haven't in some way seen before. Sometimes we're wrong. And that's okay, because when you're in the value box, your cost is minimal. In fact, I actually had two people yesterday. Our friend Stan. And you've gone to his garage, garage sales of his house. And he's got a nice house he's renting, and it's full of baseball parks, but everything is well delineated. And he had a box. And some of the stuff I bought from him yesterday was I'm looking at him thinking, okay, it's a dollar. And I knew There were some 2007 and eight dowdy short principal famers and they book at five or six dollars but I knew they were shorter. And he goes to me, by the way, Rich, anything you want in the $2 box is a dollar. But when I bought those, even though the percent isn't great, it's okay. I know those are shorter printed cards. I'm okay with that. And that's what I mean by go with the flow. It's not like I'm looking for copy short prints from 2008 when I walked into a show but hall of Famers, they were shorter printed. There was Al Kline and Armin Killer Group. When I think Bob Gibson and I bought some other things like that and I'm thinking okay, this is the type of stuff I like to buy at the show. It's okay, it's a base part but it's a short print base. And I bought some rookie cards yesterday. The guy, Jim and I knows that he's worked with our friend Bill Saleet, he's done a lot of autograph stuff and he looked through what I bought and I bought like an Andy Page's base rookie because I didn't think I had one. And I bought some Yamamoto based rookies. I didn't have those and they're 60 cents each. I don't mind buying based card when they're very selective. I don't want to buy huge lots of base cards but I will deal with very specific base. Jim talked about this. He ended up with a pallet of cards from the 2022 National. He did very well with that and asked me, the other guy asked me how you buy and why are you buying these cards. And I explained actually the return on investment is very good. Plus with the inventory that you already have it makes ebay lots even better. It gooses up the ebay lots and that it's actually a good business model for Jim to use. He's figured it out with his PhD in Statistics how to make it work. I can't make it work as well as he can but he knows how to make it work. It's return on enjoyment too. I'm really enjoying it and I want to give a shout out to Rich because it was almost exactly a year ago I think because I think it was last May or June. Rich said there's a garage sale that you've got to come to and he told me who it was. And so I went to the address. It was a 20 minute drive. I get there and not only is the garage completely full of cards, the two car garage that there were tables out into the driveway. Okay. However, here's the punchline. It was like a three or four bedroom house. Every bedroom was full of cards. Kitchen was full of cards. It was a house of cards. Literally. He couldn't rent it out. It's a storage house for his cards. And everything was priced a little bit high, but he made deals. So that was fascinating. Thank you, Rich. But it must not have been that successful because he hasn't done it for the next year. Either that or there's zoning problems. It's just a cool house because everything's well organized. We've seen obviously whatnot and I think TikTok shop and ebay live and fanatics live. A lot of the dollar auctions and these singles markets are, I don't know if I don't want to say necessarily driven by a lot of these cards that you can find in dollar boxes. Have you seen a change in cards that you're finding in those dollar boxes? Absolutely. People are smart. These live selling platforms really work. And if you're buying for a dollar or less and you're starting something at 99 cents and they're paying the postage and they're bundling and they're having fun with it. Yeah, that stuff is not in there as much. Three, four years ago for sure, that was in there. That deal that Rich was talking about from four years ago, there was a lot of that stuff in there because I bought out the guy's whole thing. And so there were a lot of base cards in there. But there are base cards of good players. And yes, that does sweeten my ebay. Lots that are by player. They're not tough cards, but they're nice looking, they're good. But that's not happening anymore. In fact, if it would be there on Thursday, it won't be there on Sunday. So there's a lot of people that frequent the dollar boxes that go by the player. And that's a tough way to do it because you just have to think, I want these players. If I see it, I'll pick it up. But a bunch of people do that, but I don't. I'm more likely to pick out the obscure guy, one of the people who has value boxes and he's going to bring his dollar boxes, the July Dallas card show the other Kevin. So I'm alerting Jim to that. So he knows to be there early if he can on Thursday. Those he usually doesn't see a card for a year after it comes out because he doesn't buy brand new stuff waiting year and then when it comes to him in the collection, that's when it goes into his value box. Almost never has a current cart in his value box. Even when he buys collections, he's letting the smoke clear a little bit. Actually, that's what I do with hockey. When I bought some hockey collections, I just set them aside for a year because hockey let it percolate and see what young stars emerge and then bring it out gradually. Yeah. This is a third Kevin there. There's the Kevin who had the pod that's not there anymore of value boxes. There's the Kevin who works with Jimmy Fisher. And there's a third Kevin who's local to Dallas. It's amazing. There were three guys named Kevin for a while and Morales Cardboard, all with value box. I know the PSA 10 Jalen Brunson Silver Prism Rookie is more than what Lucas is. So how do you determine whether or not to sell a card that has exponentially exploded in a market like this? I don't necessarily have as much experience buying and selling cards, but if you see a card going up in price, I think you probably want to sell it. Is there like a percentage that you look at where you say, if this card goes up a certain amount, I'm going to sell it? Or again, is it maybe just similar to your dollar box where it's just like you're just kind of going with the flow and it's just the feel of things. Guys, again, news flash here. I am a hobbyist now, so I don't really think about that. I buy cards, I sell cards. I guess I have some stuff I've had for a long time that I don't want to sell, but it's not because it hasn't gone up just because I like the card. So I am a hobbyist. If you're in business, though, the philosophies of business, more people now want to get in and get out of stuff, want to take the profit. And that's not the way it was 50 years ago, but it is the way it is now. You see a lot more velocity of sales being important, and that's the industry. To me, the hobby is, I just got this card. I'm enjoying it. Eventually I'll sell it. I have no coffin cards, so they're going to be eventually sold. Yeah. Fans in the Stan sport says, sell it when it's hot. You're never going to lose money in the sports card industry selling a card that went up. Rich, are you similar to Dr. Beckett, where you are just kind of feeling it. If you want to sell a car, do you want to sell it? If not, it's not something where you're like there's a percentage that if it goes up, you're going to sell it. I was always more of a collector based dealer when I was set up at a show. Even in the late 80s when somebody would come with 588red jeopardies, that was not me. I never did that type of market back then. I'm not doing it today. But there's an old standard rule. You sell into an up market and you buy into a down market. And Rob Veras has said in the past burbank and has 42 million cards and he's doing just fine with his life that he bought aggressively during the 94, 95 strike at NHL lockout because he figured the market would come back and he'd be able to buy at reduced prices. And my friend Teddy Straka in New Jersey said he really developed his business through during the same time he put capital into it. Instead of panicking and selling out, he got aggressive and he says, I can buy these cards really cheaply. Let me do it now. Because the market will come back. Whether it's slow or not, it will come back. So same principle, you sell them to the upper market. There are certain exceptions, but that's one of the joys of value box diving. You see who's cold, you know you're not flying. Shohei Ohtani's in the dollar box. Dr. Beckett is the players that have come and gone from those dollar boxes, I bet you probably at one point there were Shirley Ohtani's in there when he was on the Angels. Not so much when he's been on the Dodgers, because since he's been on the Dodgers he's won the MVP or at least been in the MVP conversation every year. So it's interesting to see the differences in the quality of players in there. With the rise of the live selling platforms, all of those players who maybe made it into dollar boxes are now just because essentially that's what you are doing on these live platforms is you're looking through dollar boxes. If they're doing these 15 second auctions for you, you're probably flicking through the cards pretty quickly. But like the 15 seconds on one card there's a chance that you could get somebody good or maybe you're just getting whatever you're looking for. But it is definitely an interesting change in players have been in those boxes. No Adam, it's a 15 millisecond fixed price live selling platform. When I go to the dollar box, it's 15 milliseconds and I just make a pile. These I want and usually have a prearranged deal. If I get a huge pile, I get an additional discount. It's very impulsive. So I'm not timing the market. I'm just saying, is this a good deal right now? I'm not worried about it. This shows a little bit worse than the last one or boy, things have really gone up. Just it is what it is. It's my version of whatnot. Except I'm not bidding. I'm only bidding in the sense there's a guy on my left and a guy on my right and one of them is looking at stuff that I haven't seen yet and might take some stuff that I would have wanted but frequently they don't because there's different lanes. So I'm not really competing against anybody. And wouldn't you rather have less competition? Hopefully our show is a place where people can come and share positivity within the hobby. When there's news in the hobby, you're never going to make everybody happy within the industry. And I think the loudest voices that sometimes can be the most negative. Unfortunately, I think positivity sometimes is not as loud as the negativity at times. I'm hoping that this show can be one of those places that people can come and talk about cards and enjoy stuff. Look at the same value box and there'll be some crossover. But about 90% of what I pull out, he wouldn't be pulling out. And about 90% of what he pulls out I that's what he's the old saying, different strokes for different folks, but different cards for different folks too. Most of us in the value box world, it's amazing. There's a cad ray of us at the Dallas card show. Most of us know each other and most of us stay out of each other's way. Nobody's super hyper aggressive in there usually. And if they're hyper aggressive, they calm down because they realize the rest of us aren't going to tolerate it. What they have to be in the hobby, it's what you make of it. You have to be the positive one. Content creators box tax hero is really good. He does a Sunday morning around the hobby show Mike, but he always specified the very beginning. If I'm telling you something negative about the industry, that does not mean the hobby needs to be bad for you. If you enjoy the hobby doing X, Y or Z, this is just what's going on. The industry level, your hobby level is totally different than the industry level. Negativity sells, but positivity sells too. It's not sugar coating it. We admit their problems, but we know there's a lot of good in the hobby. As I said, I went to a TCG show last night. Most people at the TCG show are friendlier than most sports car dealers. It was really fun when I chat with a few of them and now saying, I don't want a sports car guy. I'm just here to learn, just to get a general breadth of your world. And they're fine with that. Adam, let me speak to the negativity that Phil Pierce brought up, and that is that I welcome negativity if it's from somebody that's talking about their experience where they were personally burned. And if I was part of that, then I'd want to know. But the negative rants where the person didn't have any skin in the game is that this shouldn't be that way. That's different. That's discouraging people instead of saying, if your negativity is, I did this and I got a bad deal and I just want to vent, okay, if there's enough specifics there where people can learn from that, then that's fine. But a lot of the negativity is anonymous negativity about rumors, and that's what's not helpful. If I am being negative in some type of content, necessarily most of the time, the negativity, at least from my perspective, I try to at least give a solution or how I would fix the thing that was wrong with whatever happened. If you search for different content creators, you're going to find people who are positive, you're going to find people who are negative. Unfortunately, it's an industry where there's so much news and stuff going on all the time that I think all of us on the panel here are more towards the positive side of things. And we try to at least offer a solution or different perspective on things, I think, than maybe some of the things that are just, everything is bad, everything stinks. To give an example from when I worked for Jim in the 90s, if somebody came to the Beckett booth or came to us at a show and said, Beckett is killing the hobby, my first response is, can you tell us how we're doing this? If all they said is, you guys are just bleeping, bleep, bleeping, we would ignore that. But if the guy said, you guys are bleeping because you don't understand that Grant Hill should not have a down arrow, even if the market says so because he's going to be rookie of the year. That is a specific thing we could really examine and deal with. If it was a specific thing that was okay because they were saying, okay, here's something you guys need to figure and do a deeper dive. If you have to say, okay, guys, this is the empirical evidence why that card should have gone down or why it shouldn't have. But that would always very good. But if it's you guys are toying the hobby, the Hobby's still here 32 years later. We obviously did not do the hobby at that time. But to my earlier point, that person that's criticizing about Grant Hill has a stash of Grant Hill. So if you were to declare your personal biases before you went into your negativity, then you'd have context. You say, okay, that's unfortunate, but we have an empirical price guide. If it's selling for less, the arrows go down.