Buying Shohei Ohtani Cards in 2025 Despite Sky-High Prices Or Is It Still Possible To Pick Up Low-End Ohtani Cards To Flip?; More 2025 Hobby Resolutions From Newsletter Readers

You're listening to Cards to the Moon, a podcast about trading cards from both a collector and investor perspective. We hope you'll stick around for the ride as we take a deep dive into the state of the hobby, share some hot takes, hopefully some useful advice and fun stories along the way. Hey guys, welcome back to Cards to the Moon. This is episode 263 and my name is Clark from 5cardguys.com and 5cardguys on Instagram and on YouTube. Co-hosting with me, as usual, and back for 2025 is Hyung of Integrity Sports Cards and John who is TradeU at Recess, both on IG as well. It's another Friday episode, but before we get into our discussion of this episode, I just want to quickly continue this theme of making hobby resolutions for 2025. And if you haven't listened to our final podcast of 2024, Hyung and I mentioned a couple of our own. I also invited our listeners to message me with theirs so I can share them on the pod. And so here's a couple I got via the free weekly newsletter I send out every Monday now, which you can subscribe for and check out each week. I'll put that link in the show notes. But Mr. Collect, he says, quote, my 2025 sports card resolution is to stick to a budget while focusing on buying raw singles, self-grading, and sending tens to PSA. The goal is to keep improving my efficiency at flipping for profits so I can reinvest in the cards I really want. This year I also need to double down on writing more articles about the plays I'm making, breaking down my strategies, targets, and grading approach to help others start collecting on a budget. All great resolutions. It really reminds me of what my initial goals were when I got back into the hobby, you know, just flipping cards to get bigger ones I really wanted and also providing hobby content. And if you stick with it, you never know, you could end up with a weekly podcast and the opportunity to work full time as a hobby content creator. So Mr. Collect, wish you the best of luck. Here's a resolution from Charles. He says, do not buy unlicensed products no matter how cheap it will get. Yeah, this one's interesting because I'm really curious to see how basketball cards do once Fnatic slash Topps gets the license in 2026. I definitely think some of the unlicensed cards will go down in value, but for Wemby cards, I'm not so sure. It's actually one of my 2025 hobby resolutions, which is to pick up at least one rookie auto of Wemby this year, even if it's unlicensed. And then maybe I'll get another Wemby auto once Topps gets the license the following year. All right. Last resolution. And this one is from Ben. He says, less ripping. It's not worth it. Investing in numbered cards. Yep. That's definitely the smart move, but man, ripping is so much fun, but overall good resolution, especially if you've been ripping a lot in 2024 and got burned a lot. Thanks again to all those who submitted. And once again, check us out in our newsletter weekly where we go over more hobby news, links to podcast episodes, and of course, weekly auctions on eBay and Fnatic's Collect. All right, let's move on to our Friday discussion. And since it's the first show in 2025 where we're all together, it felt right to talk about Shoei Ohtani together, since we've discussed his cards a ton ever since the beginning of our podcast. So first there was recent news that a collector from Dallas pulled the one of one signed Ohtani Topps Dynasty black card, which featured both the game used batting glove and the pants that he was wearing from the historic 50-50 game. So it's a monster card. That means there are two more one of one Dynasty black relic autograph cards left from that 50-50 game. So question for you guys, I got a box coming that I paid retail price for at $240 US. It's currently at my friend's in New Jersey. And the next time he's coming up is in February. So I got to just wait for it. 10 packs inside. They've been selling for about $400 right now on eBay. So almost double. What do you think I should do? Flip the box? No. Or rip? You got to rip it. You got to rip it. What kind of question is that? We're not talking about $4,000, Clark. I mean, I think you're at a point where, you know, how much did you pay for the box? You got it at release. $240. Yeah. $240. Yeah. $160. Profit. You can make that on another card. But sorry, was the auto the Logoman one? Or the other one? No. Exactly. Yeah. Logoman's still out there. I believe Logoman is this number one sought after one, right? So we're still in play, you know. If I were you, I would rip it and we would film it. And the worst case, we share it with the audience. Right. This is content. I'm using Clark's money and cards right now and speaking for him. Who are you kidding? I was going to rip anyways. That was just more of a rhetorical question. Right. I knew your answer. That's why I said it. Exactly. But if I ask Paul Hickey, who, you know, we had Friday episodes with, I feel like he might side with flipping. For sure. That's the smarter move. That's the smarter move. Right. But not as fun. So, but John, what are you doing? He's more conservative. I want to know what John would do in this situation. I will probably still rip it with you guys. Okay. If this was, if this was my box coming, you get it for retail. I think it's still, it's, it's affordable enough to rip it. Let's have some fun. Do it, man. It's like a cop's crumb box. Yeah, exactly. What's the price point where you would flip the box? A thousand? Yeah, probably 800, a thousand, 800. If you, if you bought it for $250, yeah. And you can sell it for eight, nine, a thousand. Yeah. You probably flip it at that point. Yeah. That's the right answer. Okay. I just wanted to ask you guys, so I'll come over to your studio, if I'm going to get it and then we'll rip it. And then hopefully we hit the logo man. Yeah. That'd be great. Let me know. Let me know when, when you do that. Cause I'll schedule it so that we get the, the right equipment to record this. Okay. In reality, it's going to be a hundred base cards or something. Hey, you never know. The anticipation. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Sorry, Clark. Quick question. If you do hit the logo man, is it an immediate sell? Ooh, that's a good question. If it's yes, I would say 99% yes. But it's a tiny cart. You know what I mean? Yeah. I mean that card could be, and it's for, and it's from the 50, 50, right? Like this is the, yeah, yeah, yeah. That's like the logo man. So it's like, is, will it, will it be the future card that people are after in general? Because it's the, it's the game used logo man patch from the 50, 50, 50, 50 game, right? So this is, is this his first logo band too? Like it's his first logo man, I believe. Yeah. With an auto. I might, I might hold, I might be a million dollars. I think I would sell on the hype. Cause I feel like Otani is going to go 60, 60 with Asayan or something insane. And then there's going to be an even better one of one that's going to, you know, I've been burned out in Otani before, but 60, 60, that's, that's insane. That's like otherworldly. Right. How about you? What would you do? I would probably, I don't know, man, like, like normally it would be a sell a hundred percent. Like let's, let's all agree. Normally it'd be, it'd be stupid not to sell. But there's part of me that is like, okay, if, if I do hold it, will this card be the iconic card? Right. Cause it might be the highest Otani ever sold. Does he have a rookie logo? Like is there a dynasty from his rookier? There is. Okay. But they're so underrated, which, which I think, and there was so many opportunities, but there was never like a logo man. Right. And then of a meaningful game too. This is, yeah, this is legit because it's the logo man from his uni, from that game, right? The game used. But then the question becomes is, is like non-rookie cards a thing now, right? So that this is where like, there's a lot of questions. So thinking about it, it's like, I probably would sell because there's too many, too many variables to, to make it go down. But I would, there's part of me that want, would, would want to hold it. Definitely a six figure card. Oh, easily. Easily. That's what we're looking at. Yeah. So if I decided to hold, I hope my wife never hears this podcast. She'll be like, why did you sell? But that's all. She doesn't know you even have to, that you even pulled it. Yeah. That's, that's, that's rule number one, Clark. Unless, unless we film it in the Hyung studio and we put it on YouTube and then it goes viral and then it comes somehow, it comes back onto her feed. She's like, wait, is that, is that Clark? Yeah. No, it's a, I don't know, that's a good question. You know what? I'll put a poll out there once this episode comes out. All right. So I know, I, I know the chances of hitting a monster card are slim. We all know that, but let me ask another question then. What are the chances that one of us here in this podcast picks up an Otani card this year? You know, we always talk about it and I think last year we discussed in detail how many of his big Otani cards just keep hitting higher floors. That's like the reality, right? And I've included in my hobby resolutions list for 2025, but man, if I'm honest, I'm not sure I would pull the trigger still because I feel like I'll always be waiting for and hoping for, but you know, a deal at some point, but over the last two years it's just been going up like the bigger cards. And I think we've, we've, we've been saying this every year, you know, this is the year to get the Otani auto, but then it's overpriced and then it keeps on increasing. So if we bought the Otani card two years ago, three years ago, I guarantee you would have sold it for the profit, right? And then you want to get a better Otani, but then it's just the same kind of framework. But for me, it's, it's just be ready, I think, because I think there's so many Otani autos out there right now as well, that you are seeing obviously a massive surge of demand over supply. And there, there is a, a time where correction will take place because, and then it goes down to, okay, how many autos were created in 2018, 2019, 2020, where it's his original kind of like auto. Cause I think, I think that is the most demanded regardless. The Kanji auto is kind of like the number one demanded auto for Shohei just because of the scarcity. And then it becomes the, the 2018 to 2020 auto. And then he, he has his new auto, which is, is another thing because now you have the Dodgers uniform with an auto. So there's a demand for that, right? So, and it, this is all dependent on Shohei doing Shohei things. So the moment Shohei doesn't do Shohei things, what happens to the market? That's the question because he's been going at it since he won the first MVP when Vladi, you know, was up there as well. And he hasn't stopped. He's done like stupid stuff in the last three years that it's, it's almost like, when is, when is the price surge going to stop? And we haven't seen. So there has to be a correction. There has to be a correction because in this marketplace, it's all marketplace, no matter how good it is, if that stops, if Michael Jordan stops, for instance, being relevant, that height dies down regardless of how good you were. So it's just a matter of time for me. So it's, it's, it's, I think it's more making a smart decision of, you know, like any other investment. Like, do you believe that this is a good buy? Not necessarily where the potential is, because I think, I think any investor will know that you make money on the buy, not the sell. So it's, it's, it's that focus of, can I buy this at a fair market value where there's good projection out of it, as opposed to, you know, buying out of emotion saying, okay, here's the, you know, fear of missing out. You know, I got to buy Otani Auto this year, and then you overpay for an Otani that might not have that many, that much legs in the future, right? So I think it's just a matter of, you know, what's the right Otani card, and then honing on that and kind of like pulling the trigger, trigger that because I still think there are some value, valued Otani cards out there. There's a lot of hyped Otani cards, so you're going to see a surge of price there. So yeah, I'm always down to, you know, purchase if the price was right, if the time was right. And yeah, it's, there's a lot of factors with Otani, but yeah. For sure. What do you think, John? I mean, for me, personally, likely not, and it's not really a reflection of, you know, I feel that it's not the right time to chase Otani. Maybe it is. You know, I, I'm like young, there has to be some semblance of correction at some point, right? Like we, I, you know, tongue in cheek kind of joked about 60-60, but like really, realistically 50-50 for him to like achieve that again. You know, it's possible, but I, you know, if you're a betting man, it's more probable that it won't happen again. Maybe it will. is it is it possible that he goes down with another season-ending injury you know like that could be possible so i would imagine there has to be a correction but man this guy continues to prove us wrong so it's one of these things you're kind of damned if you do you're damned until you don't but me personally you know you guys know that i i've been wanting to chase uh a crosby so i'm still honed in on that i'm trying my best to stay on target but you never know like if a good otani comes up and there's a good deal but the thing is is that you you guys know like we go to these shows like a good deal on it doesn't show up because the otani is the money maker right so that's why we never end up pulling the trigger because there is no awesome buy for otani and i think at this point the three of us we're not gonna just go and get any otani you know i'm saying like yeah our target is not a thousand dollar otani it's not a two thousand it might not even be a five thousand like you guys are we're if we want otani we're gonna want like one of the big boy otani's like we're talking ten thousand real one auto red ink like something big we're not we won't be satisfied with like even a gold out of 2018 or 2017 like we're you know at this point you're you're is that foreshadowing that's something we're foreshadowing a group buy a group buy 10k each well let's let's ask our chat group see if anyone else is in i may be interested in that i'm sure some people would be in on that all right well yeah we'll discuss but all your points are valid i just feel like this is groundhog day i feel like we've had this conversation before i'm showing you a card ladder chart of otani's index that's a cell we said it was a cell here we said it was a cell here so it was a cell here and now it's well now we're here right right around here i'm just uh i don't know i think i think i i think uh i think uh yeah it's it's it's too inflated like we're we're at peak right peak peak of you know multiple four years so for me it's like yeah it's it still has value but true value i don't know man like it's it's just it's just really really i was looking at otani autos like uh just before our recording and i was just like geez man some of these cards like nobody wanted nobody wanted these cards and now they're selling for like five thousand bucks like i've seen a psa nine tops finest 2018 rookie auto base and it's a nice card it's hitting image and stuff like that that a psa nine sold for five grand and you know just even like a year and a half ago that thing was like two and a half k three k right for psa and and that was pushing it to where people are like ah three k steep and then one just sold for 5k uh after a year so yeah it's crazy it's crazy it's just it's it's the otani market and here's the thing it's like how many now that he has exclusivity to how many more otanis are going to flood the market we talked about victor wenbin yama how many autos he has which was respectable because considering steph curry has the same amount of autos in his rookie season as victor it's not it's it's not as bad as it seems so my curiosity is how many otani autos were produced in 2018 and then if it's under 10 000 i think that's the buy yep um man last question before we wrap up this friday episode any lower end tops like i'm looking at the tops chrome right now the 2018 i mean any would you target any of those i know it's not something that we're talking about big um higher end cards but just for regular collectors 100 i i think long term i think long term there's so many opportunities in non-auto cards for otani i think i think paper has been undervalued for the last three years a lot of paper parallels that you know um haven't really jumped up as much as the autos i think the autos are the most demanded um but yeah i think i think there's great buys if if you monitor rare cards if you look at all paper parallels for instance you could have got like a independence day i remember like an independence day um red jersey tops update psc 10 we are looking at it and it went on bids like a couple years ago closed that 2500 bucks like stuff like that where it's just like that's that's such a great buy at the time so i think there's a lot of a lot of cards like that and then i remember john had the sapphire a while ago and you sold it years ago the the tops chrome sapphire and you got pretty decent money i think it like was like three grand or 3 500 or something like that i got 4 500 so the bgs 10 i think sold for like five grand recently so for me it's like like i would have said john won out on that deal selling it two three years ago and whoever bought that card two three years ago wouldn't see so much of a bump for instance but yeah and i i had the blue refractor at one point uh psa 10 and i sold it for peak two at the time so and it hasn't really gone up too much so i feel like it's more truer in terms of value uh these these non-auto cards so i would i would lock down something that is numbered uh it doesn't have to be a psa 10 uh but of a main otani card that has good value and long long-term potential because at the end of the day if you look at like even tops update of 2011 uh of mike trout he his black sold years ago um and that's out of 67 for like 30 30 grand or something a bgs 85 so to me it's like those cards have legs it's just a matter of when to the right collector right so yeah yeah i would i'm if you're not gonna chase auto certainly stick to like rookie flagship that would definitely be some advice even though rookie flagship hasn't like really taken off uh recently as much as autos for me i also like non-rookie year real one autos so like 2019 real one 2020 real one i i it's got that classic look it's paper on card i mean i they used to be great value buys i don't know what they sit at now i haven't checked i'm sure it's pretty expensive but there's a couple that i regret not buying you know like there was like a a second year red ink psa 10 you know and i think it was at like 900 bucks like those are stuff that we totally should have i mean i we should have picked up any otani let's let's be real like anything would have been great but i i like those ones in terms of like on the autograph side just sticking to like a well-known you know not like a tops chrome black auto nothing like that but stick to some of the classics like tops heritage tops chrome you know yeah even even sorry like like a yeah no like a dodgers uni auto would be i mean those are probably massively expensive but like that's also something that i think could hold some pretty good long-term value definitely definitely i agree yeah um no that's all good advice i was just looking at some of the more um like the flagship and uh more popular cars like the 2018 tops number 700 even the pitching like base paper psa 10 the pop counts 9500 so still under 10 000 i would have expected more but um it's more volatile right like the peak of that was just over 300 it's gone down to 180 um a hundred bucks in august of 2024 and then at the end of the year i went back up to 200 so it's always fluctuating but i think there's plays there whereas what i showed you guys before the auto they just keep going up because it's just you know rarer and the demand continues to grow but the the there are definitely plays in the lower end side of things and and like you were saying to the i was looking at the independence day and you know they're not 10 000 but like a 2019 kind of to your point as well john non-rookie year i need some of these cars look really nice like red independence day background like it's has a color match kind of feel and a psa 10 of that sold for 2750 just a few days ago right you know i mean like compared to 10 000 15 000 20 000 cards this is more doable for more collectors and you could you could you could extrapolate the data with like guys like steph curry lebron james you know second year cards that are super rare that you don't see that super collectors get so i think they're great buys at the end of the day if you're looking at it long term right who knows when second year cards will go up but long term i think they will retain value for sure agreed all right there you go if you don't have 10 20 000 to spend on a hotani card especially for 2025 you got options all right that's the end of this friday episode we'll have a brand new one for you on tuesday talk to you guys then bye bye hey thanks for listening to cards to the moon we'd really appreciate you subscribing to our podcast wherever you listen to your podcasts and you can also connect with each of us on instagram at five card guys or you can follow hyung at integrity sports cards or john at trade you at recess you can also check us out at fivecardguys.com thanks again and hope to connect soon