Is Current State Of The Hobby In Trouble? (Breaking Down Jason Masherah's Blog Post); Better Value In Topps Basketball: Wemby Licensed Autograph Vs. Cooper Flagg Rookie Autograph Card

You're listening to Cards to the Moon, a podcast about trading cards from both a collector and investor perspective. We hope you'll stick around for the ride as we take a deep dive into the state of the hobby, share some hot takes, hopefully some useful advice and fun stories along the way. Hey guys, welcome back to Cards to the Moon. This is episode 327 and my name is Clark from 5cardguys.com and you can also find me at 5cardguys on Instagram, YouTube and on Facebook. Co-hosting with me today is Will and Roy, they are back and when they're back we usually talk Pokemon and WWE cards, but for this episode we'll be primarily talking about the sports card market and we'll still talk about Pokemon cards as well. Let's get right into it, off the top today. We actually bought some Tops Basketball hobby boxes during the pre-order and I know they're being shipped out right now as we speak and when we do receive them we'll be ripping them so can't wait for that. But we all know who we're hoping to hit and that's Victor Wembenyama's first licensed autograph card or Cooper Flagg's rookie auto. Now I just checked recent prices and as of this recording, Wembenyama's licensed auto base, I don't know if there's parallels, I haven't seen any parallels yet, but the base auto raw sold for just under $3,000 US. The Cooper Flagg rookie auto raw sold for about half that much, $1,500. So my question for you guys, which one's the better value and which one would you rather have? That 3K Wemby price tag is pretty steep, but the way he's looking this year and how he looked in the offseason, I'd rather have that than an unproven Cooper Flagg, even at half the price. And I don't like it that it's not his rookie, but at the same time, I'd rather have Wemby than Cooper. Okay. For 3K. Dang. I think that 3K price, it is high and it's going to definitely drop down. And Roy's saying it's not the first year auto, but first year of a product is always, there's always a lot of hype behind it. When we think of, was it Prism 2011? What year is it? That NBA Prism? License? Yeah. I want to say somewhere around there. And those first year cards have a lot of value, even though it's like a LeBron, he's already been in the league for so many years. Also we've been watching a lot of baseball playoffs. I'm sure we're going to talk a lot of baseball because right now, as we're recording, we're right in between game five and game six of the World Series. That's why I'm repping this shirt. Put it on the video, Clark. Toronto Blue Jays. Oh, look at Roy's shirt. That's got to be on the video. Where'd you get that shirt? I actually want that shirt. I got that shirt. I'm born ready. For those who aren't catching it on the video, he's got that Vladdy as a four-year-old with the born ready. Oh, that's nice. I like that. He's holding a Jays cap at the end of that. Oh, nice. I like that. That's a cool shirt. You know, we've been talking a lot about Shohei and just how magnificent he is and how the best time to buy his cards is today and the next best time to buy his cards is tomorrow because there's no drop for Shohei. It's because he is a one-of-a-kind unicorn and that is also who Wemby is. So I'm going to go with Wemby because that card. Because Wemby's just going to keep going up and up and up. I wasn't buying into his hype the first couple years, but wow, the Spurs are scary at the start of the season. That's all thanks to him. Yeah, it's pretty incredible. Hyung and I were talking offline and we're saying he's kind of like the next Ohtani. And it's like turning back the time on Ohtani. You know, we always wish like three years ago when we're talking about Ohtani, it's like, oh, it's got to go down. And then three years later, we're like, okay, it's not coming back down. I think, you know, Wemby, it's just, I agree with you guys. It seems like it's just going to continue to go up on his main cards, especially. And now, even though it's expensive, I can see a scenario where three years from now, if you don't get it at these prices, we'll be like, damn, that 3k was pretty cheap. So I'm with you guys, man. I can't believe we're saying this, you know, and if anything happens to Wemby's career three, four, five years down the road, and we'll be, you know, I don't know if you heard the last episode, but if we're really wrong on certain things on the pod, where it's recorded and everything, we're going to end up being a meme somewhere, you know, like, who are those Cars to the Moon guys that said. So that's the risk we take recording every week. But yeah, I'm with you. And Cooper Flagg's unproven, obviously, it's his rookie season, but I think he's the real deal too, even early on. Yeah, yeah, for sure. So I like that 1,500, I would take that risk too, you know, if I got a nice, if I could get a nice Cooper Flagg rookie auto, you know, but is he generational? I think he's generational. I think he is. Who Cooper Flagg is? Okay. So it's not a pick one. I don't know much about him, to be honest. It's not a pick one, it's just get both. Get them all. Since this is not an official pick one segment, yes, we could say get both, spend the 4,500 and both cards are yours. All right. Let's move on to hobby headlines. Okay. So there was a recent blog post by Jason Machara, I think that's how you say his last name. He's the president of Upper Deck and his blog post has been getting a lot of attention lately. It's about the state of the sports card market. And I thought he had some really interesting points. So, you know, we do this every once in a while, go through like the article or a lengthy blog post and just kind of break it down. And I have, you know, three or four points or quotes from Jason Machara. And then I thought we can give our two cents on each one of them after I read them. All right. So first quote, everything speculative is up right now. The stock market, Bitcoin, trading cards, and it's pricing some collectors out. Here's what the data shows, 50% of consumer spending in the U.S. is coming from 10% of the population. Rich people are carrying the market, not just in cards, but across every category, end quote. So my first question is, is this market similar to the COVID era of sports card collecting, right? And if you think it is, do you think there's going to be a subsequent crash? What do you guys think? Any correlation between the collectors and the speculators that came in during COVID and what we're in now? I think there's some similarities. I think there's a lot of organic growth over the past year or two. But I think over the last maybe month, two months, a lot of investors have kind of jumped in and that's kind of like the similarity with COVID where there's nothing to do, nothing to spend your money on. Everyone kind of jumped in and flooded, investors. But because there's a lot of natural organic growth, I think the drop won't be as big. But at the same time when a card goes, I think I saw a Cristiano Ronaldo Kaboom card go from like 5,000 to like 20,000 or something like that in a small amount of time. So I think those are the things you got to be wary about. But I think a lot of the growth over the past year or two have been kind of natural and organic. So with the big money coming in now after like Kevin O'Leary buying the big cards and kind of showing other people or investors this kind of market, I think now is a little bit time to kind of be wary of what you buy, especially like the big end cards. I think those are the similarities kind of over the last couple of months. Big money has been coming in and a lot of prices are just jumping up from 100%, 200%. So sell now, I guess, if you made the big gains and then try to buy back in when things kind of settle down. That's a good strategy. But yeah, I guess how much things settle down and when is the big question, right? I hear you. What do you think, Will? I mean, part of me doesn't really understand what his point is because it seems like so much of it is just like Captain Obvious. Which part? Well, just like 50% of consumer spending is coming from 10%. It's like, well, that's also representative of the wealth disparity in the Western world, right? So the rich people have all the money, so they're spending all the money, while the poor people, they are not spending money. It's like, yeah, that's just the way the world works. And we're not a political podcast or anything like that, so we don't need to go into the details of that. But that's just obvious with how spending is. And then everything being speculative right now, it's like, that's also the way the world is. Things have always been speculative. People always throw their money into things where they think there will be a return on their investment. So it's no different than any other time in our lives or in the lives of generations before. None of it seemed like news to me, and so none of it was all that controversial or even worth focusing on. I didn't even understand why the sports card hobby, or the hobby in general, was so up in arms or so rattled by what he had to say. And overall, yeah, there's going to be people who come in, and they're going to pump money in, and all the prices for everything is going to go up, and you're not going to be able to buy, and you're going to feel FOMO, and you're going to be sad, but you're not supposed to be able to buy everything that you want, right? You can't always get everything you want, but some things you can. If you just wait, prices drop, and then once you have it, in the end, all these cards that are of real, not just monetary value, but intrinsic hobby value, they end up in a hobbyist's hands, and then it's invaluable. So I talk about this card all the time, the DeMar DeRozan, Topps Chrome Gold, PSA 10, there's only one in the world. I have it. I bought it below its peak sale, but it doesn't even matter what I bought it for, because it's never going to be sold. I'm going to have it forever, unless someone wants to throw 50K at me, then I can't say no, because we've got kids' university payments to think about. So that's just the way the hobby always is, so I didn't even understand why he made this blog post. I think it's more of a warning, like don't try to FOMO out and be like, okay, Otani's going for 20 grand, I need to buy it now, and then the market kind of crashes, and then you're stuck losing a lot of money. Maybe the controversy of the thing is the fact that he's the president of Upper Deck, and so maybe he's a really good guy for saying, hey guys, let's be a little bit more careful with our spending practices. Stop buying clear-cut hobby boxes for 900 bucks at your LCS or something like that, I don't know. Maybe he's a good guy for telling us all to chill and stop spending. Stop buying Tops Chrome Basketball and wait for the cup. We got the cup coming out soon, right? Yeah, maybe he's just saying like, right now, you guys are spending too much money, because my card releases haven't come out in 0.3 months for the cup. And then this post mysteriously disappears. Oh man, this guy is sneaky. No, yeah, no, I agree with all of your main points. I do think there's going to be a higher floor because of the organic growth you're talking about, Roy, and just more collectors coming into this space. I do think it's more of a general warning as well, but like you're saying, Will, I heard the same argument with Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, like people really highly speculating. And I guess the thing that's common to the COVID era of sports card collecting, when a lot of us got back into it, is just the amount of speculators that comes into the space. So if you have a lot of them come in, then the peak gets ridiculous. We've seen that kind of Eiffel Tower peak on card ladder, and then the crash comes down just as quickly. But I think one of the main differences is that there will be a correction, but it won't be as bad as 2021, 2022, in my opinion. And I think the rest of the article, kind of to what you're asking, Will, why he wrote it, there's a bit of nuance. So let's go through the other quotes. The second quote is, when boxes cost $1,000 or more, you're not buying for fun anymore. You're speculating. You're betting that what you buy today will be worth significantly more tomorrow, and that works until it doesn't. So he's really focusing on the higher end purchases in particular. So, do you think most of these higher-end purchases now are really just about speculating and not really about collecting? Or do you think there are high-end collectors out there just paying whatever needs to be paid just for them to have it? What do you think? I mean, again, how is that different than how it used to be? Because when I was a 10-year-old going to my local card shop, I was buying Flir basketball packs, and then Flir Flare came out, and that was the really nice one, and then there was always these different brands that were higher-end, and so it's just like, I could only afford the $4 packs. I couldn't buy boxes back then, because I was a kid, and I couldn't buy the $20 per pack packs, so that kind of spending has always been there, right? Different tiers, different levels? Different tiers, different levels is a different time, it's a different product, and now it's a lot different, because back then, you couldn't buy a whole hobby box, so you'd buy one pack. I would save money all week, pretending that I need to buy a snack at school and asking my mom for a dollar, and I'd save that over a week or two, and I'd be able to buy a pack. But now, how you break up a box is through breaks, so you don't buy one single pack, you buy a player, you buy a team, and that's how you participate in the hobby. The price was always too high for everyone, like in the 80s and the 90s, it's always been too high, and he's the reason. Okay, Will still doesn't see a point in this article, maybe after the third or fourth quote, we'll see if he changes his mind, or if he just doubles, triples down on it, but yeah, how about you Roy, any initial thoughts? Yeah, it's harder to rip, with prices being so high, retail prices, if you get a box off Topps website, like Topps basketball just came out, it's a hundred bucks, but the secondary market makes it impossible to buy, you're spending two, three hundred dollars on a box, which might turn out to be zero dollars, and as he was saying, thousand dollar boxes, yeah, how can you just justify ripping that, so most people are probably just buying to hold, thinking it's going to be worth more later on, but it really depends on the product, if the player is good, then you're speculating on that player, to have a longevity of a career, that's going to be good, that's going to make that product go higher, right, but if not, then yeah, again, you're stuck holding the bag, and you're just going to be holding cardboard for a thousand bucks. I mean, we see in the Pokemon card market, so you would know better, right, like these boxes that are just sky high right now, do you think most of the people that buy booster boxes are just holding? Oh yeah, well, if you compare now's Pokemon market to like even ten years ago, they weren't holding boxes, like not a majority of people were holding boxes, you know, they'd buy it, they'd rip it, because it was cheap, but now, like how can you just justify paying four hundred dollars, five hundred dollars for a booster box, and just ripping it, you know, you're just going to buy it, because you think in a month's time, because the growth has been steady, it's going to continue to grow, then you're just going to sell it and make a profit. There's so many more people just holding sealed now than there was back in the day, right, so. I guess that's the question, right, like with these high-end booster boxes or high-end sports card boxes, the people that buy it, if they hold it, then I wonder what that does to the rest of the market, like does it increase, or does it decrease the amount of, you know, boxes that can be ripped from, by a regular collector. So maybe that's one of the reasons why this guy is writing the blog post. Will, are you convinced with that, with that argument? Well, I mean, like we were talking about tiered levels of cards, right, and that's always existed and it still exists today, right? Yeah, but I don't want to, I don't want to rip tops fire, you know what I mean? But we just bought, you know, we just bought off the Topps website, we bought Topps basketball hobby. It's the paper set and it was like, what, a hundred bucks US, something like that. And in today's day and age, that's a reasonable price. You and I, we were not on Topps website trying to buy Dynasty or like some of those higher end stuff. boxes to rip, all that kind of stuff. Truthfully, like when it comes to national treasures, it's not a, it's, it's not an ecosystem that I get to play in. So I don't even care. Like, I don't even look at it. Like maybe that's why I've never really been interested in like these like crazy logo man patch out or whatever, whatever, because it's like, oh, cool. That's a million dollar card. I, it has, it's meaningless. I get to see it, which is nice, right? Like when they bought the, when Dick's Sporting Cards bought that card and put it on display, it's like, oh, cool. I get to see the card. But yeah, I don't know, like there's different levels. Yeah, sure. The high end is too expensive, but the high end is not for me. It's never going to be for me unless I win the lottery. And even if I win the lottery, like I'm probably not going to spend it buying high end national treasures. But the people who have just so much wealth that they could just rip these, like how I'm ripping Topps Big League from a couple of years ago, you know, series one blaster packs from Walmart. Like those people get to enjoy that and that's fine, like, I don't know, like, that's okay. There's a market for them. I have my own, I have my own cards that I get to collect and rip. Yeah, I agree with you. But I think one of the points is that some of these like lower end to middle end boxes, Topps or Topps Chrome, if the trend continues, they could turn out to be a thousand dollar boxes. Sure. Do we have a problem with that? Yeah. Because then I can't rip. That's exactly what's happening with Topps Chrome Baseball, right? Every year we would gather the 10 of us guys at the studio and we'd rip a case, we'd each have a box. And we stopped doing that because it's just getting too expensive. No, I just rip by myself in my room. You guys won't rip with me. You know, this is the wrong crowd to say that. We are the two most degenerate people in that group. We will rip every time. That's true. A hundred percent. You know what? And then the market will crack. Like Hyung always talks about the market and supply and demand and all that stuff. And yeah, eventually people are going to be like, yeah, that's too expensive a price. I don't want to buy it at that price. And then the price will come down. And then you'll be like, oh, this is great. We get to rip hobby boxes. And then we rip them and we pull a really nice card. And we're like, oh my gosh, how much is it worth? And it's worth nothing because the hobby is down and nobody's buying. And we're like, oh, I wish the hobby was hot on fire again to make it valuable. Yeah, yeah. Can't win. It's kind of like the grass is always greener on the other side. You're always wanting what you can't have. You're always wanting what's different. You want the market to be hot when you have the card. But you want the market to be cold when you're trying to rip. That's not how it works. Just can't have it both ways at the same time. Yeah, you're right. All right, third quote, which even gets a little bit more nuanced. Here's what Jason says. Quote, sports cards have always had speculation built in. You collect a rookie, hoping they become a hall of famer. But what's happening now is different in scale. And when markets become this speculative, they become fragile. End quote. So I think there's this kind of like what you're saying, Roy. There seems to be this warning that he's trying to send out there. Do you think we're at that point in terms of the sports card market? Or even now with the Pokemon card market, which is still white hot. Do you think there's that fragility to where the market is now? Yeah, I think we're at a point where the prices have gone too high too fast. And a lot of people can't buy most of the nicer cards, like all tarts and stuff like that. In terms of Pokemon, like all tarts used to be $400 or $500, PSA 10. Now they're like all $1,000 plus in terms of the chase for each set. So people can't always justify paying $1,000, right? And if it keeps going higher at some point, once everyone has it, and they can't profit off it, it's going to come down, right? But yeah, to Will's point though, what he's saying is sports cards always have speculation built in. That's a given. Look at Bowman's First. It's all about speculation, prospecting. And you're paying a lot of money to buy these prospects. They don't pan out. You lose money, right? And if they do, you hit big. So in terms of that, there's nothing new. Okay. I like how you're saying there's this nuance to what he's saying. And there's a nuance to the hobby in terms of how you're collecting. And I think you and Hyung were talking about it on your last episode where you're talking about certain shohei cards that are extremely undervalued and certain shohei cards where you're like, this doesn't make sense. It shouldn't be at this price point. So there is a little bit of a nuance to collecting. It shouldn't be that all shohei cards go up because shohei is amazing. Some of those shohei cards are actually just trash. Just because it has his name on it doesn't mean it's a good card to collect or to consider as an investment. Now as a hobbyist, any shohei card, even a base fifth-year shohei card is cool to have if that's how you collect. But if you're speculating, yeah, there's nuance to it. Maybe that's where his warning is. It needs to be heeded where he's saying, we have to be more careful with what exactly we're collecting, what exactly we're attributing value to because not everything can hold value. Sure, I agree with that. But it's like this kind of umbrella, overarching doom and gloom kind of scenario. There's no way the card market is going to be like that because there's always going to be hobbyists. There's always going to be collectors that prop up the market. There's always going to be an emotional or an intangible value to cards because people's emotional connections with them. So there's always going to be that part of the hobby that holds itself up. So I don't know. I feel like I'm just kind of angry at this post. I feel like this post is kind of catering towards as a warning to more like the newcomer or the people who are kind of want to get into the hobby because if you've been in the hobby for a while and you've seen growth in terms of monetary value, yeah, nothing's new. But this is kind of a warning like, hey, don't just kind of jump in and spend all your money and hope that it's going to continue to go up this way because it's not. So I think I see it more as a warning towards the newcomer or the early investor. Maybe it's because how I came back into this hobby was, I guess, maybe different than a lot of other people in that I really had to grind my way up. I would just buy and sell making 20 bucks off a card, making 30 bucks off a card. And then once I had enough money, it's like I could buy a bigger card. And once I bought a bigger card, I'm trying to make more money off it and incrementally grow my collection. And so, yeah, if you're coming to the hobby and you're just like, oh, this looks fun. People are making money hand over fist. I'll just dump 100K into it that I don't have and max out credit cards. Then, yeah, you're going to be screwed. But that's like anything, anywhere. If you're a sports gambler and you're not doing any research into points brands or over-under. You don't even understand what those things mean. Well, people seem to be making money and I see commercials on TV all the time. Yeah, you shouldn't be doing that. But because I collect it in that way and I'm grinding, and I feel like a lot of people are that way. It's like you don't just wade into the deep end of the pool immediately. And so, for me, I feel like his warnings are just so pedantic. They're so just obvious. But I guess, like we're always saying, maybe it's not so obvious for everyone who's coming into the hobby because maybe people are coming in with more disposable income or with more of an addictive personality. But yeah, I was taught really well by Hyung and by you, Clark, at the very start. Just build yourself up. Build your way up. I mean, back then you did say don't buy any base and I did do that. But I learned from my mistakes. You learn from little mistakes that makes you better later on. 100%. Yeah, you don't want to make huge mistakes and put your down payment of your house on a card. You shouldn't do that. So maybe that's the point he's trying to come across. And if that's the case, then yeah, we should all listen to that. It should be an important reminder not to jump too heavily, too deep. Yeah, no, I think that's a really great perspective. And I do agree. I think it is more geared towards newcomers to the hobby. And if you're, yeah, like you're saying, Will and Roy, if you've been into hobby for a while, you kind of know this because you probably even went through it during the COVID era. Like there's similar patterns here, right? Oh yeah, I was buying Seiko Demboya cards for like $200, $250, PSA 10, like... Yeah, you learn. You learn from your mistakes. I had a really sick Nick Magical card, and I don't even think he's in the league anymore. Hey, you know what? The league is starting to appreciate high average guys again, so maybe he'll make a comeback. It doesn't even matter. Yeah, and I do distinctively remember telling you guys not to buy base, but then when everyone else was making money on their base cards, I jumped in and then that's when I lost money. That's when it crashed, and I'm like, I knew it. I shouldn't have. So even I can make stupid mistakes, and especially when you're really in the eye of the hurricane, when you're seeing all this action around you, and everyone does seem to be making money hand over fist, yeah, you can make stupid mistakes, and... FOMO is a hell of a drug. Yeah, FOMO. Luis Robert. We all bought into him. Kestin. Speculative. I still look at Luis Robert cards. He needs to come to the Jays. I think he'll do well with us. All right. Oh, one more thing. When we were sharing Will about grinding it out to making $20 on this card, it just brings back good memories, back three, four years ago. You know one lesson I learned? Making $20 doesn't mean you're really making $20 when you count in fees and shipping and handing. I'm like, oh, shoot, I lost $5 on this transaction. So you got to bake that in, right? So if you're a newcomer, again, another warning. This is an extra warning for you guys. All right, last quote, and I feel like this is kind of repeating itself, but he concludes the blog post by saying this, quote, this isn't sustainable growth driven by collectors who love the hobby. This is wealth concentration driving prices that most people can't participate in. And if that money suddenly moves elsewhere to bet on something else, we all will feel it, end quote. So final thoughts? Agree generally with Jason or still nothing new? What do you guys think? Yeah, I agree with that. Like in a sense, he's not saying it's going to come crashing, but once investors get their return on investment, they're dumping, right? And then what happens when a lot of people dump? Prices go down. So I fully agree with that. Yeah, I mean, if you're in the flipping game, you shouldn't be holding any cards for longer than a couple months or like a half season. Like if you're buying off season, sell it at the start of the season. Like if you're speculating, if you're investing, these should be relatively quick flips. And if the whole market turns upside down, because these super high end million dollar cards are now being dumped and whatever, it really shouldn't affect you that much. I mean, there will be an impact obviously overall, but it shouldn't affect you as crazily as... It's not like you bought a million dollar card and now it's worth $10,000, right? But yeah, I think it always goes back to the number one rule that you guys have always said, it's collect what you love. Because a lot of the cards that I now have in my collection, if they lost value 20%, it would suck. And I'd be a little bit sad about it, but I'd never be sad about having that card. That's great advice. Yeah, and in 40 years time or 50 years when I'm dead and my kids are looking at my cards and they're like, I don't know who Jade Cargill is. Who's Jay Uso? That's meaningless to me. In 50 years, those cards will all have more value. Because at that time, these cards will be so old and vintage. Yeah, I don't know about Jay Cargill, but maybe, maybe Jay Uso. Let me tell you, Jade Cargill, the next women's wrestling champion. This Saturday, Saturday night's main event, she's going to beat Tiffany Stratton. Mark my words. Next time you're on, we'll fact check you and see if that's actually true. There you go. Are you watching that? Are you going to watch game seven? If there's a game seven. We're winning game six. Yeah, what are you talking about, Roy? That's not game seven. Yeah, Momodo. All right, all right. You know, going back to the article, it's making me a little nervous. I'm not going to lie. I'm, you know, where I'm recording right now, I look to my side, there's a shelf and I see all my sealed Pokemon boxes, which I never thought I would have. I'm like, should I start dumping these? You know, we'll talk, Roy. I know you're always into buying sealed. But yeah, no, it's a crazy time. And I think we'll have more of these, right? I think it's a sustainable hobby. You know, I think there is a new floor. I think people, I think I mentioned this to Hyung when we were recording last time, that there will be a correction when a lot of the speculators leave, the flippers, the invest, you know, the short term investor types. But I do feel like there's a lot of actual genuine collectors also coming in to the space and they'll create a higher floor as a result. So I'm pretty bullish on the hobby. But yeah, I like this blog post, if I'm being honest, more as a general warning for people who might not be as familiar with the hobby. Maybe they came after COVID and that was a great time because everything was depressed. But I do think there will be a correction. And I also do think there will be like another pump in the future, you know? Yeah, of course. Yeah, it'll be volatile like that. But that's part of the fun for me anyways, being in the hobby, trying to, you know, make some good returns on some of the investments that you made, whether you're prospecting or whether you think sealed wax would make a good ROI too. So yeah, if you want to see or read the article for yourself, the full blog post by Jason Meshra, I'll include the link in the show notes below. Okay, let's move on to our next segment. It's called Quiz Show. All right, I only have three questions for you guys today. We're going through this episode fairly quickly. So that's odd because we usually ramble and go on tangents. But I like the focus, just like the Blue Jays, focused. We're going to win game six. We're not going to fall for that Yamamoto splitter. So question number one, the 1914 Baltimore News baseball card of Babe Ruth. SGC3, I don't know if you heard, but it's sold back in 2023, just a couple of years ago, for $7.2 million, right? Oh, 7.2. So that Babe Ruth is considered its true rookie, you know, whatever that means. It sold by that seller again recently on October 24th. So just last week. And the question is, what did it sell for? So I'll give you a multiple choice. So for $2 million, down from 7.2, $4 million or $6 million? I'm going to go with $4 million. I was going to say that as well. B, is that the choice two? That's B, yeah, A, B, C. Yeah. So you think it lost $3 million in two years. That's right. $3 million in two years. That's what you're saying. Yes. Will looks like he's thinking about it. No, you know why? Because I feel like I saw something about this card. Okay. And then I'm pretty sure like they wouldn't show it unless something drastic had happened. Mm-hmm. So that's why I'm just kind of just using my brain, my big brain right now. You guys are right, $4 million. So a drop of 3.2 in two years. So you know what? That person that bought it should have read that article, that blog post by Jason Mishura. It came a couple of years late, but there you go. That was... I mean, if... Maybe it was him that sold it before he wrote the article. Late one night, he just lost $2 million. You know what? I need to warn other people about this. My wife is going to be so pissed. Oh, man. All right. Question number two. We're talking big dollars for this quiz show. An autographed 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan rookie card, the iconic 1986 Fleer, just sold for how much in a private deal via Golden Auctions? Yeah. So private deal. I guess Golden brokered it, but it is the 1986 Fleer on-card auto, like an IP auto of Michael Jordan, which is pretty rare. It's PSA 10? No, it is a PSA 9 Auto 10. PSA 9 Auto 10. And how much does a PSA 10 go for? Like 500? I think it's like 300,000 now. I haven't checked in a while, but yeah, I feel like that sounds right. A regular PSA 10, right? Yeah. Like no auto. 300. I feel like a PSA 9. 231,000 last sale of a PSA 10. Yeah. So what's the question? I think it'd be more than a PSA 10. A PSA 9 Auto? Because this is like what? Pop one? It's probably a few. Yeah. So I think if I had to guess, it'd probably be double a PSA 10. Half a mil? Yeah. 550. I'm going to say like 875. You're going higher. Okay. The answer is it's actually now the most expensive Michael Jordan rookie card of all time. Oh. 2.7 million dollars. So you guys were a bit off. I was going to say a million and then I was like, ah, they're just going to mock me. Yeah, I don't know. I think that's a silly purchase to be honest. 2.7 million? Yeah, that's crazy. But then again, Jordan does a sign a lot, right? So this is a private sale? It's a private sale, yes. Okay. So I sold it to Roy for 2.7 million dollars and then Roy's like, oh man, my mortgage on my house, I just had a fire. Clark, I bought this for 2.7. How about you take it off my hands for 1.35, half the price? And you're like, sweet, what a great deal. And now you bought it for 1.35 and then me and Roy are taking your 1.35. We're like splitting it between the two of us. Like all profit, baby. You can't trust this private sale. It's golden. He's pretty reputable in the hobby space now, right? I'm just saying. I don't want to get sued. With that fabricated made-up story that you just told us. Okay. Okay, one more question for you guys during quiz show. We kind of mentioned him earlier in the show, Kevin O'Leary and Shine 150. They have their own kind of, what do you call that group? Secure Collectibles, where they purchase cards together under that company. Made another purchase. They've been purchasing a lot of these high-end cards and this one was the Michael Jordan and LeBron James 2006-07 Exquisite Dual Logo Man Autograph 1 of 1. So they got that now. And of course, you guys remember they bought the Kobe Jordan Dual Logo Man Auto for what? $12.7 million. How much did they get the Michael Jordan and LeBron James Exquisite Dual Logo Man Auto for? What year was it? Is it like new? 2006-07. That's not LeBron's rookie year, right? LeBron is 03 is his rookie year. If they're buying a card, it's probably 5 mil. Okay. Maybe, yeah, 4.5. I'll say 4.5. 4.5? Yeah. What do you think, Will? I don't know. Once you get to this level, it's like... You're just throwing down numbers. Yeah, it's just guessing. 8.2 million dollars. I don't know. 8.2? Okay, that's incredible. But the correct answer is 10 million dollars. Oh my god. Becoming the third highest public sports card sale in history behind their Kobe MJ at 12. And of course, the SGC 9.5 Mickey Mantle, I believe, still remains the highest. Imagine owning the card and just be like, Oh, Kevin O'Leary is my buyer. I could just ask for anything. I don't know. O'Leary is pretty... Yeah, he does his analysis. Yeah, but you say, you know, you sell it. You say, you know, he probably offered 5 million knowing him. And he's like, the guy, the seller's like, no way. You just bought one for 12. And then the guy, he's probably like, okay, 10 million, right? You just made 5 extra million. It's nothing to them. Yeah, yeah. I could see that play out. That scenario play out. I mean, I don't want to be so conspiracy theory guy, because I don't think I am that kind of person. But it's like, when you get to that level, it's like, I'm not saying it's fishy. I'm just saying there's so many layers and so many levels to what's going on that we are not privy to, especially when it's like, oh, it's a private sale, or, oh, this acquisition group has just merged with this group and we've purchased this and whatever, it's like, I feel like there's some tax sheltering stuff, there's some tax evasion, not evasion, but just like, there's different things. Like, yeah, it's like the art world, right? There's just, there's so much money in that high-end art world and we don't know how it goes around and moves around, but it's not just the value of the card that's making that whole system go. That's, you might be right. I'm sure someone on the Reddit forums are saying the same thing. You know them. I'm a moderator on that subject. The hobby conspirator of conspiracy sites. All right, that's another round of Quiz Show and we'll finish off this episode with our regular weekly segment we call Pick One. All right, Will, do you want to start things off for us? Yes, sir. Okay, let me just grab it. I really enjoyed last week's episode with you and Hyung talking about all the Shouhei cards and you guys went into this little discussion about one of his unlicensed cards. Which one was it? I think it was the Rated Rookie. Oh yeah, yeah, John loves, John really likes the Rated Rookie cards. Yeah, it's a good brand, yeah. And then you guys always chirp me for being the king of unlicensed. Yeah. So I wanted to bring your attention to these two cards. So the first one is the 2018 Bowman Chrome base Shouhei, he's in his batting stance, a PSA 10. There were seven sales on October the 29th, which was yesterday for us. Those seven sales averaged to $4,600 Canadian. Dang, for base sales? That's a base card. That's crazy. It's got a pop of 4,800 PSA 10s. Versus the 2022 Shouhei Prism Color Blast PSA 10. There's a pop of 28 PSA 10s. In total, there are 68 graded versions of this card. Today, and I didn't even know that it had happened until I started doing my research, it just sold today for 9,000 Canadian on Best Offer. But maybe you're thinking, that's a funky number, why is it so high? Well, the previous sales from this year, there's only been four other sales. In May, it sold for 5,000. In July, it sold for 5,000. In August, 5,000. And in September, as the playoffs are starting, it sold for 6,000. So would you pick this unlicensed Color Blast Shouhei for 6,000 on average, 9,000 high-end sale today, versus the Bowman Chrome base Shouhei batting stance PSA 10? Oh man, I hate this pick one so much. When I thought of this, I just smiled, thinking of seeing your face, just like hurting. You're forcing me to choose one, this is pain. Roy, did you go first? All right, does he have another Color Blast, or is this his only one? And let me take a look. What year was it again, you said 2019? 2022. So not even his rookie, okay. And it's in his Angels. Let me ask you this. Why is it in his Angels colors, but on the bottom right, it says Los Angeles? Because it's the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Roy. Oh, it's not, okay, all right. Why doesn't it say Toronto? No, I thought it was Los Angeles Dodgers. No, no, no, it's his Angels. They're also Los Angeles? Technically the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Okay. First of all, where do you think the Angels were from? What city did they play in? Anaheim. Okay. Well, that's what they used to be. They used to be called the Anaheim. Yeah, fair, fair. That was the last time Roy cared about baseball, in 1992, 93. No, man, I went to so many games. Anyways, okay, so that change, I was gonna say, like, why is he wearing red? Why didn't they just change it to blue? Because it's like, if you're trying to change the jersey of like a licensed product, it's hard to change the logo, but with unlicensed, you just had to change the color with Photoshop. I was obviously wrong. 9,000. That's a lot. Yeah. That's a lot for unlicensed. You could buy it for 6,000. We won't count the sale today. We'll just say that's a weird sale, because the four or five previous sales were all averaging around 5,000 to 6,000. I mean, with the market of how Shouhei's going, I think, like, even though it's unlicensed, the low pop stuff, as you can see, it's selling for way more. And like, the base, this Pop 4800, which in Pokemon is okay, but in sports, that's unheard of. Like, what other Pop 4800 card is even over 1,000, right? But yeah, as much as I hate to say it, like, with Shouhei's market and like trying to get the rare stuff, and like this being his only Colorblast insert, I would probably go with the Colorblast. Wow. Yeah. Because you could pick up this base anytime, and like, the market, like, the next sale, you don't know when this next, let's say Shouhei continues three more years, a Pop, what is it, 28, you said? A Pop 28 card versus a Pop 4800, which will probably go up to 5,000 by then, or even more. No, no, it's 2018, though. I feel like it's got to start. You don't think there's 200 out there in the next three years? Okay, sure, but that's not significant. That's what I'm saying. Yeah, I guess so. Yeah, I still think the low Pop insert over time will do better than a base. Like, if it was a refractor or something, a little different, but base, stay away from base. I know, this is, oh man, this is evil. I can't believe I'm saying this, but I got to stay true with what I said last week. I believe I didn't choose a rated rookie because it was unlicensed, and in terms of the demand for, A, it's a rookie, right, and it's a Topps brand, and 4,800's a lot, but at the same time, if Otani continues to do what he does, and the high end and even the mid end becomes just out of reach, guess what people are gonna do? Look for those damn base cards that are PSA 10 and gonna spend whatever it is just to have one, and I think it will be over, what did it last sell at, 4,650. I could see a scenario where that sells for another 1,000 more, and that would be stupid, and I would never buy it, but I could see a scenario where you could easily sell those base rookie Otani cards, PSA 10, to someone. Yeah, I guess it is more liquid. It's more liquid, yeah. But I love Color Blast in general. I think it's such a cool looking card. I love Color Blast too. I just wish it wasn't pajama jerseys. I just can't do it. So, Will, we'll have to break the tie. Yeah, for me, it's pretty easy, because I'm always about the artwork of a card, the image of a card, and so like Roy said, Color Blast, it's so beautiful, and actually Shohei's Color Blast, I think might be the best looking baseball Color Blast that I've seen, and so yeah, I'm leaning towards that one. I understand that this card will always hold, the base Bowman Chrome will always hold some value, because like we were talking earlier, you gotta play at your level, and so you're not gonna get those rookie autos and patch autos or whatever, the high-end, low-parallel stuff. So yeah, a lot of people are gonna choose this as their Shohei card that they're collecting, and that's great. They should love that card and appreciate that card. And so I get that there's always gonna be value there, but for me, I always wanna look at my card and just kinda like be in love with it, and be in love with the look of the card, so. Yeah, the Unlicensed, it didn't bother me as much before. It's starting to bother me more and more, because you guys are brainwashing me. No? No, but your choice just proves again, anytime we talk about Unlicensed, your name will be right there with our discussion with Unlicensed cards. Well, I mean, not so much anymore. We were just talking off-air. I took a whole bunch of my Vladdy Grove Unlicensed cards, my Kabooms, my Color Blast PSA 10, I sold that one, and my Bomb Squad Donruss Optic cards. So I think I'm all out of Unlicensed Vladdy. Oh, I still have a PSA 10 Kaboom that I'll keep forever. Yeah. I mean, with the thousands of dollars you're getting from all those auctions, you're gonna buy this Shohei Otani Color Blast. You know what's crazy? I could have bought this. I remember trying to buy this card for like 500 bucks. I know, that's insane. Again, once again, the Otani market's just ridiculous. Good one. All right, Roy, do you have one for us? Yeah, so with the World Series going on, Toronto's versus the Dodgers, the Los Angeles Dodgers. I wanted to pick Treya Savage, the game he had last night. Dominated. Domination. So we're going with his Bowman First Super Fracture, the non-auto, in a PSA 9. It sold, I think two weeks ago, October 13th, for just under 19,000 Canadian. 19, wow, that's crazy. Versus a Dodgers player, Freddie Freeman, Canadian guy. His Bowman Chrome Orange Refractor, auto, in a PSA 9. And that sold last year, November 10th, 2024, for 18,000. And I checked Freddie Freeman's kind of graph. And right now, his prices are generally the same as it was a year ago. So if this came to market, we'll assume it's around the same price. Yeah, easy for me. I'm not gonna invest in pitchers that long term, even if it's Treya. Even if it's Treya, who I love now, you know. I was watching with a bunch of guys on my men's softball team for game five. And a lot of those guys were saying, I need to buy you Savage jersey, right? They're all in on Savage, and so am I. But I'd rather have the Freeman Orange. I think Freeman's not underrated, he's properly rated. But in terms of like, he's kind of like Mookie Betts. He deserves more hobby love than he gets right now. And I think he's a Hall of Famer. So I think that's just more stable, more solid. I love Freddie Freeman as a, he seems like a really cool guy, although he plays for the Dodgers. And yeah, for all those reasons, I'm going Freeman. Even over the Super, huh? Super's nice, but oh man, the Auto. If it was the Auto, yeah, maybe. Maybe I can reconsider, but it'll be a lot more than $20,000, that's for sure. I think the fact that it's a Super, it looks amazing. Any Super Fracture just looks really, really clean. You know, that gold vinyl look is just like, it's so nice. And it's not so much that he's a pitcher, it's just that he's so young. And so maybe you are buying in really early on a future Hall of Famer, who knows? But, you know, we had Alec Manoa, who was an all-star. We just released him before the end of the regular season. We had Ricky Romero, who was multi, I think he was an all-star a couple times. He was our Canada Day Starter, he was our Opening Day Starter. And that's how you Savage is tracking right now. I was listening to the radio show after the game, and one guy called in and was like, hey, what a performance from our Opening Day Starter for 2026. I was like, yeah, like he's tracking really well, but you just never know with young players how their career is gonna pan out, how they're gonna turn out. What was the thing that Trey said before game one? Like that, he said something like really confident, really cocky, and then we made it like his catchphrase. I forget. Something Trey said? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh my gosh, I can't believe I'm having a complete brain fart. It's like when Vladdy said born ready. He said something else, but anyway. Oh, I think he said he's built for this, right? Is that what he said? Oh, yeah, that's the tagline that everyone says. Yeah, and so like, yeah, he does seem built for this, but you just never know when it breaks down. So he could be built for it, but he could be broken down. Whereas Freddie Freeman, he's already had a Hall of Fame career. He's already. won championships. He is a Canadian icon, as well as an American icon. He's an icon for the Braves, and also for the Dodgers, two of the most popular teams in North America. The only drawback is it's an orange refractor, and I just think orange refractors are one notch above green and purple. That's a ridiculous statement, but go ahead. Oh, really? What's this guy talking about? Oh, wow. I think they're just orange. I think it pops. I think it's nice. I think orange is nice. I agree. I have that feeling with purple and green, too, though. But orange is on a different... Orange and red are at the top. Red does it for me. Yeah, so I'll pick Freddie. I think he's already got the career built in, and I'll gladly eat my words. Well, let's be a meme in 15 years with the Savages retiring as the most winningest pitcher in Major League history. I'll gladly eat my words. I'll be there with you. Yeah. For me, it's tough, because I love collecting cards that I've been to games at, or I've been a part of, in terms of just watching. Freddie Freeman was never on my radar, in terms of players I really love, players I like to watch, and just watching the Savage in the World series, and this whole postseason. And him being a Blue Jay, and it being a super fractor, I'll probably lose money, but it's a card you buy what you love, right? For me, yeah, I'm very short-windowed and kind of recency biased, but if we end up winning the whole thing, he was a big part of that. And if he loses, I'll just remember. I'll have his second best card, and I'll just remember the days of winning the World Series 32 years later, my son being the same age as when I was, back in 93, 92. For that reason, I'm picking Freddie Freeman. No, I'm just kidding. Yeah, I'll probably take the Trey. I hate buying pitchers, but... What a softie, so sentimental. What a collector, true collector. You know what you could do instead, Roy? Just buy the $10 Tops Now card of Trey Yosavitch, and then there'll be a nice memory, and you'll save $19,900. Or just watch the YouTube video. It's not a super. I mean... I don't know. It's just like, it's having the best card. It's just like... The Freddie Freeman is great, and I think long-term it'll do well, but... I get it. There's something special about holding the best card. You can't get any better. Yeah, I totally get it, because I was about to... I don't know if I regret it or if it was a good thing I didn't buy it, but there was an Ernie Clement. I don't know if you saw it, the Tops Chrome rookie auto of his, $700. His best card, Tops Chrome. His super factor? Yeah, super. Wow. But you know, am I buying it because of this magical playoff run? Yeah, that's pure, in the moment. I mean, I wouldn't spend the $19,000 if I was just picking one, because I was given the card. Yes. All right. All right. We know exactly what would happen. Roy would see it at the Toronto Expo next week, and he'll trade all his Pokemon, a bunch of Pokemon cards towards the Savage. Three months later, all the Pokemon cards will go up 20x, and he'll be sad again. He says he doesn't like buying pictures, and yet he's... He's the Paul Skeens guy. ...in reality and imaginary. He's bought the most expensive pictures out of all of them. Yeah, if you've probably listened to all my pick ones, I probably have all the worst picks, all the worst picks. It's good. It's good for the pod. Yeah, exactly. I'm doing it for the pod, not what I actually mean. Thank you. Thank you for that. All right, we'll finish the show with my pick one. Okay, on one side, we were talking about him earlier in the show, Wemby. His tops 2025, the set that just came out. His first licensed auto, like I said, it was 3k. Would you rather have that card raw? Because it hasn't been graded yet, but it's sold for 3k. Or the 2023 Prism, his actual rookie year Prism. So it is licensed, but it's a PSA 9 red choice parallel. I think it's number to 88, red choice. Which Wemby card would you rather have for 3k? And you know, red choice isn't a very popular parallel, but it is number to 88. When it's a PSA 9. Non-auto. I don't know. That's tough. One's an auto and one's a rookie card. Both licensed. Both licensed. Will, why don't you go first? For me, I think, yeah, it's not his rookie card, but it's that first year auto. So it's the first auto you could get of him in a licensed product. So you treat it almost like it is that rookie card. And for me, I'm beating the same drum over and over again. I never understood Panini. I never liked their cards outside of their insert sets. They have the best insert sets. Like they're way better than anything Topps has ever come up with. And Topps just steals them and makes slightly worse versions. You like the Helix? The Helix, I just don't understand. So I hate the Prism sets, the borders too much. And I hate that I don't understand what the breakdown of the parallels are. Like with Topps, it's always been really easy. It's like out of 5, out of 10, out of 25, out of 50, out of 99. It makes sense. Whereas Prism, it's like out of whatever random number that you could come up with. And there's no like order to the colors. It makes no sense. So like you're saying, Clark, there's no like red choice is not a highly sought after parallel because there's out of 82, I don't know, like checkerboard and out of 77, I don't know, it's yellow and black and purple and turquoise. Like it's just like, it's so random. So I'm going with the auto and it's an auto. And it's auto looks nice. But it's a base. But it's a base. Yeah, it's a base. All right, Roy, you decided this will convince you one way or another? He convinced me the other way. No, no, no. But yeah, I was just thinking about it. Like because the product has just come out, I think these are inflated prices. And with every product that every new release, prices will always go down, even if it's like the hottest player. And then it'll start coming back up afterwards. So I don't know. I like rookie cards better than a base auto. And I think over time, it'll do better. Because you could just buy, I think you could buy a parallel auto of the tops in a few months for the same price as this base auto sold for. So for that reason, and this red choice has been going up steadily, right? I think so, yeah. Being a rookie card license out of 88, I would pick the prism over the base raw auto rookie. Clark, before you make your decision, I have to add one more thing. You also have to consider the artwork of the card. Yeah. So the tops one, you know, he's playing in a real game. And the panini one, he's in a middle school auditorium. Standing on stage in front of a curtain. You know what? Because we made fun of it so much when the panini prism one came out, it's kind of turned iconic. We love the black curtain. We call it the black curtain card now. You know what I mean? So in a weird way, it kind of worked out for panini for his wimby rookie card. But man, I keep going back and forth with this, but I think, like I haven't seen a parallel version of it to tell you the truth, the auto. So I don't know if they only have a base auto of it in 2023. I don't know if they're going to come out with one like parallels for his tops chrome card when that comes out later. Right? So that. Exactly. We have tops chrome to look forward to too. That's which is kind of my point. So because I think there's going to be better autograph cards, the first licensed autograph cards, i.e. tops chrome. I'd rather spend money on that, more money on that than the base auto. And I can't believe it. I am an auto guy. I was on our hobby friend, Josh, that inspired sports cards. One of his IG stories featured in his IG stories, how I love autograph cards, but I'm going with a non auto. And that's the other thing, too. I'm going to make a point. For some reason, basketball card collectors, and I think young brought it up even in a previous episode, the auto, the autograph cards aren't really as popular as like baseball card collectors, you know, like that baseball card collectors love autograph cards versus basketball card collectors. They love the panini prism, you know, rookie in the lower parallels. So I think for that reason, basketball card collectors are a little weird. So they're going to like the non auto. And yeah, but, you know, the longer I think about it, you know, we thought top dynasty was underrated. I think at some point, basketball rookie autos are going to be, yeah, people are going to realize, like, why are we collecting non auto panini prism or non auto basketball rookie cards? So that might be a play, too. But as for now, I got to go with the panini prism because it's this true rookie. And then I guess that's the other thing, too. I'm an autograph guy, but I'm also a true rookie guy. The only person I'm making exception for collecting second and third year cards is Shoei Otani because that's all I can really afford. Yeah. And like 50 years down the road, do you think people are going to be like, oh, that was his first, you know, like they see a rookie card and then they see like, was that his first non or first licensed auto? Like, I don't I think they'd rather pick a rookie card over, you know, a third year first licensed auto card. That's just my opinion in like 20, 30, 40 years from now. Let's table it for 10 years. Come back to it. We'll see if Roy becomes a meme because of what he just said now. But I can't even remember what I did 10 years from now. All right. With that, we'll end off this episode. Thanks for tuning in. We appreciate you guys. And we'll have a brand new episode for you next week. Talk to you then. Bye. Hey, thanks for listening to Cards to the Moon. We'd really appreciate you subscribing to our podcast wherever you listen to your podcast. And you can also connect with each of us on Instagram at 5cardguys or you can follow at IntegritySportsCards or John at TradeUatRecess. You can also check us out at 5cardguys.com. Thanks again and hope to connect soon.