The PSA Saga Continues: What Will Happen Next Once The Value Tier Returns?

You're listening to Cards to the Moon, a podcast about trading cards from both a collector and investor perspective. We hope you'll stick around for the ride as we take a deep dive into the state of the hobby. Share some hot takes, hopefully some useful advice and fun stories along the way. Hey guys, welcome to another Friday edition of Cards to the Moon. My name is Clark from 5CardGuys.com youm can also find me at 5Card Guys all spelled out all one word on Instagram, YouTube, Facebook and on TikTok. This is episode 372 and I'm flying solo again. And just like the last time I went solo on Friday I'm going to talk PSA. But before I do a quick plug for my YouTube channel at Five Card Guys, I just posted 20 lessons I learned setting up at my first card show. Please check it out and give my channel a like and subscribe. I'll include the link in the show notes below. And with the summer coming up, I do have some plans to upload more videos for the YouTube channel, including a big hobby trip I'm planning out right now. So that's a little teaser. All right, back to psa. In the last Friday episode I was mentioning how that despite the $200 million investment into its grading infrastructure, it seems not hardly enough to improve turnaround times or even better accuracy in grading and just the overall grading experience, especially as they're making money hand over fist. Now, since that episode, we've already discussed on this podcast the news that they're halting the value service tiers. That is the cheapest level and it's all over social media. So I don't have to rehash how a lot of collectors are feeling. But I'll give PSA credit for being transparent on one thing, and that's the news release in which they shared that they had a 10 million card backlog, which is of course a huge number. Now, since the deadline on June 2nd when they temporarily paused the value service levels, it's been reported that another 2.5 million cards were submitted just before the deadline. And if you do the simple math, there is now a 12.5 million card backlog. So what was initially proposed to be a four month pause? I think now it wouldn't be that surprising if it took at least six months before we get the value service tier opened up again. Now in this episode, like I said, I don't want to rehash all the initial responses to this announcement, but instead I want to play out different scenarios and and what could happen over the course of the rest of this year and even into 2027. And I might add my own thoughts here and there about this whole situation and what I hope ultimately to see happen. So first, was this the right move by psa? And I think unfortunately they had no other choice because if they hadn't and you just play everything out, the backlog could have grown to be even larger with the rate of submission just not slowing down at all. Of course, on a positive note, that's another bullish sign for the hobby in general. But to try to maintain operational status quo with the sheer amount of cards coming into PSA's grading centers, the turnaround times would have gotten longer and longer and longer. It would be like trying to fix an airplane while flying the airplane at the same time. That being said, I just can't get over the feeling that PSA could have anticipated this growth a little better. Maybe instead of announcing a $200 million investment into its grading infrastructure last month, they should have probably just invested that money a year ago to begin future proofing their operations for the growth we're seeing now in real time. But I guess that's a case of shoulda, woulda, coulda. So I'm gonna move forward and focus on what I think will happen next. So with the value service tier shut down all the cards that are more low end, those submissions should significantly slow down. And I think that includes a lot of the TCG Pokemon cards, which I believe has contributed to much of the current backlog. I'm not blaming the Pokemon card collectors at all, it's just how hot the market is right now. But I think you'll see an uptick in regular level submissions, which are currently going for $80 per card. Obviously to send at this level at that price point, there will be more scrutiny involved in regards to which cards you submit to psa. But the question for me is how many more will be submitted at this tier by collectors who just want their cards graded? I believe PSA has already said that they could handle the amount of submissions at the regular level right now because it's at a stable volume. But would I be surprised if the regular level gets a bigger than expected influx of cards? Not really, because I think there's a lot of collectors out there, if they're honest with themselves, who knew their cards could receive a healthy bump in value and they should have probably submitted at the regular level to begin with. They probably tried to save an extra few bucks and just funnel everything into the value service, hoping they'll bypass the upcharge. I think that's the game I'm sure a lot of collectors are playing right now. It's just how the system is set up. Why not try for the value service tier and if you get upcharged, you get upcharged. But I digress. That's another issue altogether. So the question I have now is how fast can they fix this overall grading system with a pause on the value level? Like how fast can they hire more graders? How fast can they implement AI technology? Those are the bigger questions that I think we want to see answered. But if we just take a step back and look at this from PSA's perspective, man, what a business they have running here. They can halt a major part of their business that is the value service tier and still make money because the more costly tiers are still open. And like I said, I wouldn't be surprised at all if a significant amount of collectors are are still willing to pay the extra money to get their cards graded at the regular and even express levels. Now the tricky balance for PSA is to not royally piss off all their paying customers because of course they do want them back. But I think that knowing that they're still able to make good money even during this temporary pause, I'm sure they won't have any trouble sleeping at night. So as a collector, what are you going to do with those lower end cards that you wanted to submit to PSA at the value tier level? For me personally, I know that PSA and BGS are owned by the same company now, but I think Beckett is an option, at least theoretically. You should get your cards back faster and if it gems, it might be worth the added premium, especially if you want to flip your card and reinvest it into another card. And this is more for TCG collectors, but same goes with submitting to cgc. I actually wrote a blog post recently about doing this with the Charizard card from the 151 set and I'll include that link in the show notes below as well. But TL Dr. It could be another smart play. Another option of course is you can always wait it out. Wait till PSA reopens its value tier. But honestly, if you're waiting at least eight months, the value of cards can fluctuate greatly. So that's a risk you need to consider. And for me, what I'm more curious about after eight months is how much better will the grading system be at psa? Honestly, if it's more of the same and you could just see the writing on the wall that we're going to see another backlog sooner than later. I think I'm done with submitting to PSA until I believe they have resolved this ongoing issue. And I know some of you might not believe me, but I don't think it's really worth the wait. And like I said in the last Friday episode, there's a level of accountability. We need to take ourselves as collectors if we really want to see change happen in the grading industry. And with PSA specifically. Now I'm not going to lie, if I did have a big card, financially it just makes sense to submit to psa. So I would still submit it either at the express level, which of course it's still open, or just wait till a big card show and do an end of show turnaround submission, which I've done before with my Bobby Witt Jr. Superfractor. But for all other cards I think I'm gonna start looking elsewhere. And the bonus for me as a content creator, I actually thought of a new series recently that I wanted to do, which is kind of loosely titled Things I've Never Done in the Hobby until now, and I have one in the pipeline, so stay tuned for that video. But another good video that would fit in this series is making a bulk submission to CGC or bgs. Now, speaking of what to expect when PSA clears their current backlog, what would be some actionable items I hope to see moving forward to make the grading experience a much better experience than it has been. And I like DC's one suggestion who was on the pod last week and he said why not have TCG and sports cards in two different submission streams? Because if it's true that the backlog right now is largely a result of the enormous influx of TCG cards, well, as a sports card collector, it shouldn't have to impact your submission levels at all. And honestly, vice versa. If there ever comes a time when sports card submissions greatly outnumbers TCG, one shouldn't impact the other. Now 2 can PSA please start using AI technology and implement it more thoroughly like the rest of the big corporations in the world are beginning to do? Because it just seems to me they're very slow to adapt AI their grading process. And if I'm wrong about that, I would love to hear from PSA on this pod. And three, I've said this before, I think we need to give other grading companies a try. It's just a healthier hobby if we get to the point where there are other viable competitors that can provide just as good roi as well as provide trustworthy authentication services. And we have more choices. We can spread the wealth. And you know what? Turnaround times won't be much of an issue anymore. Now, is this wishful thinking? Maybe. But everything starts with a dream and a hope. So maybe that's a good way to end this episode. I'd love to hear your thoughts on what's going on now with psa and you can reach out to me by dmvecardguys or at Cards to the Moon on Instagram. Oh, and one last request. Follow us on our weekly newsletter. We just relaunched@5card guys.substack.com I'll include that link below as well. And as always, appreciate you guys and we'll have a brand new episode on Tuesday. Talk to you then. Hey, thanks for listening to Cards to the Moon. We'd really appreciate you subscribing to our podcast wherever you listen to your podcasts. And you can also connect with each of us on Instagram @5Card Guys. Or you can follow Hyung at Integrity Sportscards or John @TradeYoueccess. You can also check us out@5CardGuys.com thanks again and hope to connect soon.