THWC 401: Changing on a Dime

What's up? Everybody happy with Cage episode 401? If you did not listen to episode 400, I asked you to hit pause, you can come back to this one. Go listen to 400. It was a fun episode, A very different version of me to commemorate the 400. A lot of people really liked it, Got some great DMS yesterday, you know, people enjoying the conversation. It is a topic I don't think I've heard anyone in the hobby, in the, you know, millions of pieces of content that are out there. I don't think I've heard anybody kind of discuss it the way that I did, you know, kind of about knowing your identity in the space. And, you know, once you have that understood, even though it may be something that changes, you know, at least you're being honest with yourself and you understand what it is you're doing in the space. And, you know, it makes it a little bit clearer, you know, where you're going, what you're doing, where you're spending your money, etc. Etc. So anyway, if you haven't listened to that one, I ask you to kind of give it a listen because I, I enjoyed making it. It's a little different. It's different than just going on and saying, you know, buy this, sell that, the hobby's terrible, PSA is closed. And, you know, it's a little bit different. So, you know, if you did listen to it, I hope you enjoyed it. If you didn't, I mean, go ahead and drop a thumbs down and a comment telling me why you didn't like it. For today, back to normal, back to me saying, you know, the hobby can change, man. The hobby changes on a dime. And there's a bunch of those things that are out there, right? And it's something that, you know, it creeps in when I wake up. My hobby, wake up brain. Every day, it could be going one way or the other. I'm a coin flip away from, you know, on any morning, waking up, saying, I gotta sell it all. You know what I mean? I'm gonna sell it all because the warning signs are there and, you know, I want to put my money in the SpaceX IPO, or that IPO is going to crash and burn and take the whole market with it. And, you know, I, I of course exaggerate a bit, but the, the thought process is there. It is sound, you know, a lot more of it, really less than SpaceX is, you know, has the market run so much that it, it's okay to just kind of take your Profits and maybe you're not calling the top, but you know, eventually this kind of chart that just goes straight up into the right, you know, at some point it does become less sustainable. Know what I mean? So there you go. That's, there's my intro. Today's 401 is going to be brought to you by Arena Club by card ladder use code cage. Save yourself a couple bucks and buy the Philly show. And I mean we'll jump right into it. The hobby could change on a dime. I have not looked, but I would think that Brunson's cards might be a little bit cheaper today than they were yesterday. I didn't look at the card ladder. I probably should have done that. You know, in my, in my lead up to this, you know, my, my Brunson silver. I had some fun story posts yesterday. If you haven't seen those, take a look at those, you know, and it shows you that six weeks ago you could have brought a, could have bought a jail and Brunson, you know, for, for 250 bucks prison silver. And now they're 2400 bucks 10 times, you know, so, and, and I got a lot of, I got a lot of people messaging me in the DM saying you're wrong, it's going to go up, you don't understand, this guy's bringing a championship and blah, blah. Okay. I mean entirely possible. I just am of the belief that a lot of the, the finals winning was already baked into the, the sale price and I mean there's only one of 2100. So it hasn't really gone down per se, but there's none really no sales for today. But last night the Knicks lost and I mean the Knicks are still favored to win the series. They took two on the road, but the odds are a little less in their favor now and there's a little more risk to it. So it's not, you know, as of yesterday, you know, prices were, we're basically baking in almost a guarantee that Brunson was going to win a title and you know, he's going to take a championship back to New York. All right, well, you know, let's remember game one, the Knicks were down 14. Game two was a one point game. This was a close game that the spurs won in New York. You know, it has been a very hotly contested, closely fought back and forth series that you know, we could have woke up this morning and said three zero, all right, it's the Knicks. But instead it's two one and we got a Game tomorrow, which if it gets to two two, we got a whole new series. We got a three game series, but now the spurs having two at home. It's, it's, it's funny how things can change on a dime and in the hobby more so than anything else. Especially if you're buying cards, selling cards of somebody who, you know is an active player and still playing in the high stakes of something like the finals here. And I'll give you, you know, a great example. I mean, you guys know I had a bunch of these Wemby Silvers, you know, I've, I sold off almost all of them. And now if he comes back and wins, I wish I didn't, but that's sort of the, you know, know the fun push and pull, the risk management of this, you know, the, the, the gains and losses and you know, when the Knicks were up to nothing, I feel like a genius. Now it's 2:1. If it goes 2:2 and you know, spurs take a 3:2, etc, etc, you're like, oh man, you know, so, so it was, it was interesting to go to a show with the Wimpy cards that were as hot as they could be, right? I mean, here he is in the Western Conference finals, but they're down two games to one when I have a card show to go to and I'm handing the people. No, no, no one's buying those right now. Our repackers aren't buying them. The repack company is not buying them. We'll buy them tomorrow. If he wins and they won and then the next game is he gonna win? It's a game seven. We can't buy it right now. If he loses. We know what's gonna happen. And think about that for a second. You know, we know what's gonna happen if he loses. That's pretty crazy. That's pretty crazy because things change on a diamond and when you have a current player like this, you have, you know, a lot more risk, a lot more potential upside, a lot more downside. And what I'm saying on these guys is when Jalen Brunson Silver gets to $2300, how much more do you expect it to go up? Right? And in my DMs, people expect it to go up a lot more. And I tried to explain why I don't think that's the case and why you'd be smart to take the money now on something that has gone 10x basically, you know, even if it's 5 or 6x in six weeks because that momentum will not be there even if he wins, that the win is kind of already there. Even if you want to say only 80% or 90% of it is there. Great, take that. Because if he doesn't win and spurs come back and win now, there's no way that card is worth what you could have sold it for. So it's an interesting thing to think about changing on a time. We have a lot of this and you have to be mindful of it in the space, you have to be mindful of it in the hobby. Because World cup is a great example. Only one guy is going to win the World cup and it may not be any of the hobby heroes. I mean, who knows, maybe Croatia wins and people looking for Luca Modric cards. Who knows, you know, I mean, you know. But is it, do we know that Ronaldo or, or Messi are going to win? Yamal, is he going to win? I don't really hear a lot of talk about Mbappe. I mean, maybe he wins and maybe his cards are going up. This stuff changes on a dime, especially when it's active and you have stuff like this happening. And anybody remembers the last World cup, there was a crazy run up with the cards. And not just player wise, all of it. Soccer. There's a reason why golden has a soccer auction going right now. Why all of the, you know, there's so many cards coming up for sale, soccer, why you didn't see a sold a game sell for a long time and then boom, one sells for half a million dollars, another one sells for 200,000 and there's more of them. There's Ronaldo cards and messy cards just everywhere coming out of the order. Why? Because smart people are trying to capitalize on the excitement of the World Cup. But the flip side to that, the thing that changes on a dime is that that excitement, I don't want to say it's fleeting, but it's fleeting. The World cup will be over. Fanatics fest is right around the corner. That's when the World cup ends. It's safe to say that some of the excitement will wear off thereafter and you don't have another World cup until 2030. Now there's other, other things in soccer to get excited about. Of course, you know, there's plenty of other great soccer being played between now and 2030 and there are reasons to buy the cards of the greats and the people who are doing well and all the goals being scored, etc, but. But the same type of risk management mindset that goes into potentially taking your profit On Brunson, when they're up two games to zero also comes into play when you're thinking about soccer. Maybe you don't have too many messy. Maybe have some Mbappe cards, maybe have some stuff you're holding for a year or two. Maybe you bought some Yamal. Maybe you have no soccer. If you have it, think about selling it. This is how my brain works. I wake up every morning saying, okay, do I hold? Is it very possible that Lamina Malcord goes up even more if he wins the World Cup? Sure, but you can capture a lot of that in the hype, excitement, and run up to it. Now, forget about soccer, because if you have soccer, great. You know, if you don't have the soccer, you know, I mean, maybe resist the urge to buy it now, you know, but it's not just that. It's everything. And this is a fun thing. You know what I get in the space all the time, you know, even at the show I was just at this past weekend, you know, guy came up, he said, should I be buying Ohtani cards now? There's a guy with an awesome, flawless, blah, blah, blah. And you know, eventually they get around to, well, what are you buying now? And I have to ask a question back. I hate the question in response to a question, but it's, well, what are you trying to do? Are you trying to make a few bucks? You try to have fun? Are you an action seeker? Do you want to be buying and selling and just kind of playing in the space? Or do you want to hold something long term? Just buy it and put it on your shelf or put it in a safe deposit box and never look at it again. Who are you? Right? Most people tell me they want to buy something that's going to go up in value pretty quick because that's the allure of the space. The Brunson for $250 in April, that's $2,300. Now. Everybody wants to try to find that. Everybody wants to do that. Those are few and far between. They're hard, hard to find. But if you're somebody who's looking for action, I tell them the same thing. I'm going to kill myself here because, you know, I love sharing with you guys what I'm doing, but it makes it harder for me to. To do this. But I'm buying quarterback cards. This is not a secret, right? I have bought almost every Jackson Dart downtown card that I can get. The PSA 10s for a reasonable price, because I expect not Jackson Dart to win the super bowl, you know, if that happens, great. That's fantastic. He has a great season. You know, I will not capture that. You know, these cards will be three, four thousand dollars if that happens. I don't need that. I'm buying them for 15, $1600, expecting them to be $2000. This is not financial advice. I'm telling you what I'm doing right. I expect to be $2,000 next month when Fanatics Fest happens, the national, because that's the cycle. The hobby changes on a dime. But here's the fun part. If you're a Jackson Dart and a Giants fan, you could get caught up in that. You can buy it for 15, 16, $1700, see at Fanatics Fest themselves for 2000, 20, 100, 20, 200. At the National, 23, 20, 400. And say, you know what? Look at how quickly it's gone up. My cards are already worth so much more. I'm going to hang on to these. I'm going to hang on to these because I think he's going to have a great year. Great. You've now taken a risk for potential upside. There's also potential downside. I like to move those cards before he even sets foot on the field because the upside is there. I'll take my small win and maybe I miss out on that huge win. I have to know who I am. If you're more of a gambler and a fan and a believer, it doesn't have to be dart. It could be Caleb Williams. It could be anyone. Right? It could be Drake May. If you're a Patriots guy. When you're buying it, there are different exit ramps. I like to talk about this stuff. All changes on a dime, especially with the active players. If you don't sell the Jackson Dart at Fanatics Fest or at the national, what happens is the hype wears off and reality sets in. And then the value of your card is going to be dependent on what he does on the field. And if he comes out there in week one, loses and throws three interceptions and no touchdowns, even if it's not really his fault, the card will most likely be worth less than it was before the season started. Now, he could go out there and have, you know, four touchdowns, no interceptions, and do that for four straight games, the card's worth more. That's the fun of our hobby. That's the fun of buying this stuff. And you have to understand the risk involved. You have to understand how this stuff all changes on a dime. Ohtani, great example. Baseball players, a great example. Right the beginning of the season, there was hype for Ohtani. People were offering money. People were trying to buy Otani cards. It sort of died down a little bit. He had a little bit of a slump, and right now it's. He's batting well and he's pitching well, and he. The. The momentum is picking up a little bit, but it's still tamped down because people are putting their money in Wemby. People are looking at Jalen Brunson cards. But that will end in a week. A winner will be crowned. Your Brunson cards will be worth more or less. Your Wemby cards will be worth more or less. And after the parades and the dust settles, you know what happens? MLB All Star break, where the stars are on display, and then the season starts to wind down and you start to read all the articles about what a great season Ohtani is having. He's flirting with one of the best WAR seasons of all time, like Babe Ruth style. Is he going to win the Cy Young and the MVP doesn't need to. Are they favored? Did they make a big trade and bring in Derek Skubel? Are the Dodgers going to win another World Series? Are you talking about somebody who now has five MVPs and three rings? Never been done. And then the excitement comes in. It changes on a dime. But cautionary tale, you may be somebody who spent millions of dollars on Aaron Judge cards, and now he's out for six weeks and probably not playing in the All Star break. He might be there taking some pictures. He's got a fractured rib and he's got a weight that has rest, and hopefully he comes back and plays meaningful baseball. But he's probably not going to win the MVP because he's just not going to have the numbers because he's going to be out for about two months when it's all said and done. I mean, you know, four to six weeks, they said. But then he's got to ramp up the baseball activities and stuff like that. I expect him back August 1st, probably. And that's another thing that can change on a dime, especially when you're talking about active players. I don't want to, you know, trample the Aaron Judge guys. They've not had a good week here, myself included. I have some nice Aaron Judge cards that, you know, probably don't have the heat on them that they did. You never know. Things can change on a dime. And maybe he comes back in August, heats up, takes the Yankees into the playoffs, and maybe they're in the World Series again. And then the action is back. Anyway, the point of this is in addition to 400, I almost like a AB episode, knowing who you are, knowing your risk, knowing what you want to get out of it. If you're somebody like me who, you know, doesn't mind taking a small win here and there to, you know, maybe not get the full upside but limit some of the downside. Great. Be mindful of how this hobby, this sport, especially active players, change all the time. If you are somebody who's just buying goats, you're sitting back laughing and saying, I don't have to deal with any of this stuff. I don't have to think. I just said it and forget it like Ron Popeil. And that's another episode, guys. Hope you enjoyed episode 401, the hobby with Cage, brought to you by Arena Club by card ladder use code Cage, save a couple bucks and by the Philly Show. I'll talk to you guys tomorrow. Take care, everybody.