What To Collect When High-End Rookie Cards Become Too Expensive; WNBA Prizm Worth Ripping?; Pick 1: Tom Brady Bowman Chrome Refractor Vs. Patrick Mahomes Gold Prizm

You're listening to Cards to the Moon, a podcast about trading cards from both a collector and investor perspective. We hope you'll stick around for the ride as we take a deep dive into the state of the hobby, share some hot takes, hopefully some useful advice and fun stories along the way. Hey guys, welcome back to Cards to the Moon. This is episode 273 and my name is Clark from 5cardguys.com and 5cardguys on Instagram. You can also find me on Facebook and on YouTube. Co-hosting with me as usual is Hyung of Integrity Sports Cards on Instagram. John's away this week but we're hoping he can join us next week. Off the top, I want to talk about the release of WNBA Prism, which is arguably flying off the shelves at premium prices because of one player and her name of course is Kaitlyn Clark. I saw one social media post just the other night and it showed that hobby boxes for WNBA Prism are selling on average for about $1,200. Wow, that's crazy. If you compare that to a hobby box of regular WNBA 2024-25 Prism, it's selling for $700. That's nuts. $1,200 versus $700. Like I said, the chase is obviously Kaitlyn Clark's flagship Prism rookie, which is in that box. The latest sales I've seen on eBay, and these are all raw just to give you some comps, they're going for $500 for silver Prisms, $800 for red Prisms, which are numbered to $299, and blue Prisms numbered to $199. The last one sold for $1,800. Wow. Again, all raw. So Hyung, your thoughts on this year's WNBA release and do you think Kaitlyn Clark cards are overvalued, undervalued, or just right at this time? Oh, man. We can't say that we haven't seen this before. Right. Just in general. Like you take Victor Wenbinyama, you go all the way back to Zion Williamson. Yeah. You know what I mean? So I feel like we're in that repetitive cycle again. Obviously, there's a lot of hype around it, and it's a first release. My question is how many people are in it long term versus the flip? So let's just say you have like 90% of people that agree that there's great opportunity with Kaitlyn Clark, her being in the spotlight, how many eyes are on her right now. What percentage of the hobby is actually collecting Kaitlyn Clark in the long term? Hmm. Right? That's the question. Yeah. And for me, that's going to dictate whether or not it's overvalued or undervalued. So for me, it's easy. It's definitely overvalued. And we've seen prices, and maybe they sit sideways for a bit or even go down like in the short term. But I think long term, it's the same hype that we see with every rookie. But I think if you're going to go in on a rookie early, it would be Wenby over Kaitlyn Clark. Right? Like for me, that's the only thing. But if you believe long term in the WNBA and Kaitlyn Clark as a whole, and you're a long term collector, then great. Yeah. You could justify it. But definitely overvalued in every single aspect. Because how many autos are there in a Prism Hobby box? Oh, man. I didn't look that up. But yeah. Maybe two? Mm-hmm. I don't know. But that's some serious... If you're talking about gambling, that is the ultimate gamble. I mean, release of any hype product in the first couple weeks is the ultimate gamble. Right? Yeah. But no, I get your point for sure. And I think I've already seen a lot of comps between Wenby and Kaitlyn Clark. Like these are players that transcend their respective sports. Do you know what I mean? Like other people from different sports kind of know who they are because they just stick out. They're not even fans of the sport. Right. Yeah, yeah. I get it. So I mean, I agree with you with the WNBA box. It's overvalued because you're only going after one player. Yeah. I'm not hating on any other WNBA players. But let's be real. Kaitlyn Clark is the only player that you're going after if you're not a WNBA fan. Right. So I'm going to just focus on Kaitlyn Clark cards. Okay. And I think I don't want to say she's 100%. Right now she is. But I think in a month or two when prices start to settle down, I think those prices will be reasonable. So I'm also looking at Victor Wenbenyama. Look at his cards. Right. When his rookie cards came out, his flagship rookie in the Prism set. What was it? Just last year, 2023. Right. Yeah. And of course, you see the initial and I'm looking at PSA 10 values. So these are already graded. But the initial PSA 10 values, they sold for over 2,000. Wow. In February of 2024. And then it dips in May of 2024. So March, April, May. Three months later, it cuts the prices chop in half to 1,150. Okay. Yes. So three months, you got a 50% discount from the initial sales. Ever since then, it's been flatlined. You know what I mean? It hasn't been going down any further than that. I think that's the trend I'm expecting for Kaitlyn Clark. Wait for three months, it'll drop to a value. And I think that'll be the floor because I think Kaitlyn Clark has the notoriety and has the fan base to support the floor even after three months of the release. Right. So that's my thought. So PSA 10 would be, I guess, similar. Probably most likely. So you'd see almost an identical trend with Victor Wendinyama. Right. Because if his PSA 10s were like 2,000 at one point, I would assume that based on a $500 raw silver prism, if somebody PSA 10s, it depends. And that's another question. Do you know if these WNBA cards, these prism cards are short printed in general? I would assume so because the market would be a lot less than NBA prisms. And maybe that's why prices are bonkers because they still have enormous demand for the product. But they've scaled it probably down compared to a hobby box of NBA prism. You think so? But I don't know if I believe that 100%. You think they're printed? Prism, I don't know what their license deal is with WNBA. I'm sure it's similar to the NBA. So they're going to lose it. Are they? Someone can fact check me. But if they are, then don't they have every incentive to overprint? This is their last hurrah. Yeah. I mean, it makes sense. But I think overall, just in general, it would be dependent on the WNBA and their ability to market the game beyond this year. I think that's crucial in terms of whether or not this would be a sound investment. And obviously, we agree that prices are inflated right now just based on release and then based on hype. So I agree. You monitor prices in about three months, four months, see where it is. But then again, it's like you want to take that risk because most likely the trend is you're sitting sideways. And that's to prove it's like Victor's having a pretty good season at the end of the day and it's still sitting sideways. So that will give you context of what happens if the opposite happens. You're going to see a massive decline even further. Because if Victor's doing what he's meant to do and prices are sitting sideways, that tells me that the true value has not yet caught up with the inflated prices. Sure. Yeah. And you know what? That's a good point. Because at the end of the day too, like Victor Wambayama, NBA, it's a viable league. Whereas the WNBA, can one person really sustain the whole league for how long? Right. So to your point, the WNBA has to be able to market their league better beyond even Caitlin Clark if they want to have some kind of sustainable business model. And just to throw on that from a sustainable perspective, WNBA, invest in grassroots sports. That's how you do it. You got to go all in on grassroots sports. You got to grow the game from that level and get the hype going from the early ages to buy into the culture of women's basketball in general. So that's my two cents on that. I'm just involved in development in baseball side, right? So I always see kind of like the hurdles that you have to overcome from a macro scale of the whole sports lens, right? It's like how do you create that sustainability? So yeah, that's my two cents on that. Agreed. Agreed. All right. With that, let's move on to hobby headlines. So I was reading this Sports Illustrated article recently, and it's titled Could Paul Skeens Help the Popularity of Second Year Cards? And the crux of the article argues that just like what happened in the hobby boom during the pandemic, when the rookie card prices just skyrocketed, some collectors started going for second year cards as cheaper alternatives of their favorite players. Now, we see history kind of repeating itself in 2024 and into 2025 with card prices creeping back up, especially of key rookie cards. And the article actually uses Paul Skeens as an example, as well as Conor Bedard, where the one of ones or the high end rookie card chase, they're just unattainable for regular collectors. You got to be lucky to hit them. And even then, if you're trying to buy hobby boxes, those cost hundreds of dollars. And you're just gambling. So what they're saying in the article is that, okay, now the collectors are turning to cheaper alternatives again, like second year cards. So my first question for you, Hyung, is what do you think of collecting second year cards? And do you think there's any upside in collecting them as an investment? We've said it on this pod many times. I'm a huge fan. I think second year cards have always been a thing. And we've always said that second year cards are the most undervalued, probably, investment that you can make in this hobby is because everybody's on that rookie card chase. When is that time when the rookie card chase dies down? Because there's not enough supply for that demand. And we're going to always see an overinflated price on the absolute studs, right? And history, like you said, repeats itself. You take a LeBron second year Topps Chrome card. Would you say that, hey, during the rookie card chase of LeBron, that probably would have been a good alternative to chase? Like a gold out of 10 second year versus trying to get like a gold first year card, right? And I think you see that a lot. And I've played that game too because I had a Pop One Juan Soto second year Independence Day PSA 10. And it's second year Rookie Cup. And at the time, I bought it for off Chris Jones, I remember. And Chris Jones is well known in the hobby, I guess, in the Midwest. But he sold it to me for 900 bucks. And I remember at that time, it was like, whoa, you're really overpaying for a second year card, right? And then on Juan Soto's hype, I actually tried to sell for 3000, but I couldn't. And I ended up settling at like 2100 or something like that, which is a great sale at the end of the day. But I think it's always been in play. And I'll take it even a step further. I don't even think it's now second year cards. I think there's opportunities on just rare cards. So like I said, we go back to Otani's Dodger uniform. I think as it ages, it's going to be a very desirable card in terms of, let's just say a rare version of that card, right? So I think it's giving collectors an ability to see outside the typical norms of rookie card chasing. And for me too, I don't mind not having a non-rookie card. If I really like the card, and it's super rare, and I find it like, hey, this could potentially be a big card down the road. I'm all for that. And I think like, for instance, we talked about this on the pod on the Otani hype. It's like Otani autos are overpriced. A good alternative is like a red ink second year. That's really affordable. It has the old auto. So 100%, whether or not this is propaganda by Sports Illustrated and fanatics to hype up different cards, I think it's still a viable option. I love that game. So I've always believed that to be true. And maybe it's more making the mainstream right now just based on kind of like the hype of the hobby. But yeah, I think. It's always been a play and there's great buying opportunities. Yeah. Hang on. I agree with you a hundred percent. And Otani was the cop I was thinking of right now, especially because Otani rookie autos are just ridiculous. Right. And, and for obvious reasons, but like you said, the, you know, the first Otani auto where he's in a Dodgers uniform, you know, I'm sure there's going to be a chase for that. And, and not just, you know, like I, I wrote this down even before you started to kind of share your thoughts first year of any player in on a new team. So Juan Soto and his Yankees uniform, Matt's uniform. I think the Yankees Juan Soto is going to age really well because you're going to look, you're going to look at his career and you're gonna be like, what the heck happened in New York? Like there's, there's not a lot of those cards. Yeah. Especially the rare ones. And especially of a player like Juan Soto, if he has a hall of fame career, you know, there's going to be Juan Soto super collectors, you know, 10, 15, 20 years down the line. Like that's going to be desirable for sure. And, and it's like, it's Yankees too. So there's extra premium for that as well. Right. I'm the only ones that you probably won't collect it. So you know how, um, a lot of these players, when they do get older, they start to bounce around teams. Yeah. Yeah. And then it's like, oh man, they just ruined it. It's like Shaquille O'Neal in a Boston Celtics uniform. I don't know if I need that. No, you need him to just end off as a New York Met have like a hundred plus war career. And then it's like, you have the only like Red Ink Yankee auto of Juan Soto of that, you know, whole career. Right. So yeah, no, I love that. And, but I will say the dangers of this game, Clark, be prepared to sit sideways. Right. I mean, be prepared to sit sideways, but that's why it's a more long-term smart play because you don't know when that market's going to hit. Right. So just treat it as, you know what? I truly believe in this market. I truly believe in this price, right? That's the key is the buy it, not where you sell it, where it goes. It's what you buy it for. And you're like, this is a solid, solid buy because I believe in the future longevity of this card. And the best part, I used to love that card, that Juan Soto second year independence day, because even though it was a horizontal card, it had Juan Soto in his Washington nationals uniform, but the independence day parallel in 2019 was like the whole, the whole card. Right. So the eye appeal on that thing was insane. So I enjoyed holding that card even though it sat sideways for a long time. Again, you said, well, I was going to say you got to collect what you love. Essentially that's, that makes it easier to hold for a long time. Yes. You know, the price has to justify you selling it. Yeah. And I actually, that's why, that's why we're talking about this, right? Like it's a cheaper alternatives. So if you're investing in something, we're assuming that you're not investing thousands of dollars into it, hoping that it's going to 10 X from that point on. Right. Right. So these are smart plays potentially, but if they aren't, you're not, you're theoretically not in it for a lot of money anyways, relatively speaking. Do you have any other card ideas? Like in terms of second year cards, if you would go beyond that, you know, something I've been thinking about is like insert cards, you know, insert cards that, you know, usually they're not as, you know, costly, right. Especially if it's not their rookie year, but there are some insert cards like kabooms and downtowns, you know, when they first came out before the, before the hype, they're probably relatively affordable. Now everyone wants them. So they're at a certain level, but then, you know, every year tops or panini, whatever the set is, they come up with new insert cards and you know, some of the artwork is amazing. Right. And, and maybe if you like the visuals or you think that they're really cheap and like home field advantage, people know on this podcast, I'm a huge fan. They're so cheap right now, relatively speaking, and I'm just collecting them and who knows what will happen in the future, but I like them anyway. So insert cards might be a play. Yeah. A hundred percent insert cards have tremendous eye appeal. So I think, I think that's why people like inserts, but then you have to make sure that those inserts are the desirable ones. You know, people know about that. Oh, Tony Carter people know about that Steph Curry insert like a kaboom or something like that, where the brand is strong. Right. So there is that. And I will say to add onto that, I would say a safe play usually is Topps Chrome, just the flagship version any year. Because if you think about like a, even a LeBron James or Steph Curry, let's just say fourth year that, that is a popular image and you have a super rare card of that or parallel of that. I think Topps Chrome in general is your safe bet. Like if you look back in time, it's like a 2004 Topps Chrome, LeBron James, you know, refractor even. Right. And then the chalk toss became popular. Right. So it's like, those are the cards that you kind of want to really lock in a hone in on where there's not too much risk because it ages really well. It aid, the more it ages, the chalk toss card becomes more valuable. Right. Just in general. Right. Because the limited run. I like that. Yeah. Topps Chrome. Yeah. Iconic brand. Yeah. Usually a great play. And some of these lower numbered cards, like even with the insert cards that we're talking about, they probably should be an SP or an SSP. Right. Not a generic case hits. Yeah. Yeah. Even if they're not numbered, but you know that they're kind of short printed. Keep that in mind as well. Cause you know, there are insert cards that are printed to the moon. You don't want you to collect those for PC reasons, but if you're hoping that they'll start to skyrocket in price at any point in the future, it probably won't because there's been a billion printed. So look for short printed insert cards, short printed cards in general. And then there might be a play for you there. Any other way? Oh, you know, I was just trying to think in my head before we started recording. This is kind of different, but cause it has to do with grading, you know, so PSA tens is what everyone wants now. But I think if you target even first year rookie cards in BGS or SGC or CGC slabs, you could see some of the price differential on some of these cards compared to PSA 10. It's just ridiculous. I think, I think if it's like at least 50% of the price of a, you know, between a, for example, PSA 10 and a BGS nine, five, I think that's a solid deal. Most of the time. Always. And that's why it's like at the end of the day, if you're, if you're buying on value, that's where you go. If you want value, look away from the PSA 10. Remember PSA 10 is more about liquidity, I think. And, and the value is in the BGS slabs. The value is in the SGC slabs. The value is in the wrong slab meaning, you know what I mean? Like if, if it's like a, it's like, what is it doing in this lab where, you know, you don't understand the grade and maybe it's like dirt cheap, you know, fractions of a PSA 10. Hey, that's a, that's a great, that's a great purchase. Right. So I think, yeah. Buying based on value on grading is always a strong play. Yeah. Yep. I'm always looking for nice cards that are just too expensive in a PSA 10, but in a BGS nine, five, you know, BGS nine, five, it's like, it's like 50%, right. Yeah. Or a lot of these cards. Yeah. Depending on the card for sure. Yeah. I was just going to say shout out to our friend DC who's the king of cracking slabs out of, out of what they're in. And then I feel like he says it's, it's in the wrong slab a lot of times. Yeah. A hundred percent. Yeah. Any other ideas before we go on or no, I don't really have any, any more ideas. I'm just, I'm just thinking what I, what I see value in. And like I said, I'm always like, it's on the buy. So that's where you have to look because if you're always looking on what the hype is, that's you're buying on the sell. Right. So it's like, you gotta buy, you gotta go in on the buy. What's like, this is worth it. And that's why for me, it's all about collectability. Like for me, it's like, I generally like to collect, like I appeal and rare stuff. I think that's my biggest, like what I've summed up in the last four or five years of doing this podcast is like, this is what I like. I don't really care for the rookie hype cards. I look at the chalk toss card in 2010 or whenever 2009 or whatever it was. It's like, that's the play you would want to make longterm. Right. So it's the same thing. There's so many amazing, I appeal cards in a, in a marketplace where sports has never been marketed this much in general. So if you take these iconic, iconic images that aren't like necessarily the Bowman chrome 2018 of show a, there's new cards that are released that are like, wow, this is an amazing card. That's it. That's, that's the way you need to purchase. And in, in my opinion, as a collector slash someone who likes to also sell for a profit when the time is right. Yeah, no. Great, great piece of advice. I'm, if I'm, if I'm truthful, if I'm honest with, with you, I'm getting there. I love the rookie car chase. Yeah. That's like 80%, 90% of my collection too. I FOMO into the, you know, the rookie cards that everyone else wants as well. I'm like, dang, that's, that'll be nice in my collection. But I am learning to appreciate other cards of those players. So case in point, actually, you reminded me of this. I almost pulled the trigger on a Bobby Wood jr. It's a Bowman chrome mojo. It's one of the, I think it comes out of those silver packs or, you know, it's like a, uh, this is first, he's batting in it. Like it's better visual than even his, that was pretty rookie card. So it was Bowman. So it's a mega box. That has to be mega box. That's right. Yes. It's a mega box. Yeah. And there's a white, uh, there's a blue number two, one 50. There's an orange number two. You know what I mean? Like it's, there's, there's less parallels, but there it's a sweet card and it's going for a fraction of the price of its first Bowman, you know, where, you know, will, our, our buddy, um, likes to make fun of the highly Photoshop picture in those in the, in that set. Right. Right. But it's just a better looking card. And in my opinion, I'm sure in a lot of other people's opinion as well. And it's like eight, 900 bucks for even a blue raw, you know what I mean? Yeah. A blue raw of a first Bowman's going to go cost thousands of dollars comparatively. So that was always an interesting play. And I'm glad you brought this up because like I always monitored that because that was always the move. It's like during that time of Bobby Witt hype, it was like the first Bowman obviously was a chase. And then he went through enormous pricing. So everybody fell to the next available, which was, you know, the 2020, you know, Bowman Chrome, right. Cause he was in the original Bowman, uh, or 2021 Bowman draft or whatever it might be the auto version of that. Right. So, but then what happens when 2022 hits, for instance, Bobby Witt jr tops Chrome comes out. So I see cycles of huge demand of those secondary Bowman cards and then kind of like a crash of those when the tops Chrome, but then I think in the longterm, those Bowman non first cards end up longterm. People start really liking them after they established their careers. Right. So I think they go through that transition because there's no Bobby Witt cards at the time, but then there's this huge hype. So there's this huge surge of demand for the second, second tier, but then when he becomes a superstar, his tops Chrome becomes one of the chases and then people forget about that. So there's more supply and then, you know what I mean? And then it recorrects itself kind of like, uh, in the future. No, that's yeah. That's awesome to hear because, um, and because it's amazing advice. So if you're really bullish on a player, you know, during that initial crash, when there's more supply in general, if they're autographed rookie cards, that's when that's the time to get it. Cause I think even with this, like, uh, I'll show you on the screen, but this card, like it had that similar trend where, um, it peaked and then it kind of dipped when tops Chrome came out and then, um, and then it's kind of creeping back up again. Yeah, exactly. This is a perfect example right here. Cause that blue, so a 2020 Bowman. So that's from Bowman Chrome. So that was released the second release. This is his second release. He was an original 2020 Bowman, a blue version of that Bowman Chrome. His first auto is thousands of thousands of dollars, right? This one sold for five 50 just recently. Yeah. Yeah. Raw, which is great because then you, and I guarantee you that card in 2020 when this came out, this was probably like 2000 bucks. Hmm. You know what I mean? Or whatever it was. I don't know if you have that data, but I guarantee you it was a lot more than 550 bucks that release, right? No, that's crazy. So this is not as a rookie card. No, that would be so 2020 Bowman was released. That was his first. And then in the summer Bowman 2020 Bowman Chrome was released that summer. So he would have, he would have played his first minor league season. And then this was his second, second, technically card release. Yeah. Well, there you go. That kind of puts a nice bow tie on the segment. There's an example of a card to go after. If you can't afford a first Bowman Bobby Witt, I'm super bullish on Bobby this year. Again, obviously the, the profit levels won't be there because everything, his floors are, you know, inflated now. But if you look at what was the website I was on, maybe steamer or, you know, they, they ranked the projections by war. I guess he's number one, Bobby Witt. Yeah. I don't. Yeah. I mean, he, he, he, he could change the game in so many different ways and he's proof that he's going to be a war monster. Like this. what and I whether you're for war or not and I see both sides of the story it doesn't really tell the whole picture but I think it's the closest way to gauge and a player's impact within the game itself so Bobby what jr. Aaron judge those are the really like high war performance Acuna would be there Oh Tani obviously so you want to stick with the high war players I think people who don't produce a lot of wars and that's that's why I think guys like Raphael Devers they don't get love because like you see the whole Bregman and Devers thing where defense yeah yeah it's just it defense really kills their overall performance when offensively they're one of the better hitters same with the Jordan Alvarez these these are guys that should be 10 war type players if they could play you know defense pretty well so that's one thing to kind of notice and Bobby what does it on both sides that's why he's such a game changer both defensively and offensively in many ways that he becomes one a massive fantasy league player and to a massive like chase in terms of an investment piece yep and that reminds me I'll reach out to Chris bag and Jason Willow we'll have him back on before the season starts and then we'll do a deep dive into like maybe the top 10 war projected players of this season and and then we'll we can we could have a say in terms of like are they collectible or you know are there opportunities to invest in players because you know some of these guys might be surprising to you well most of them aren't but then in terms of the hobby you know hobby logic you have to consider that I think because some guys are just not collectible for whatever reason as collectible but yeah I was looking at this and it's an interesting list I'll give you the top five we won't talk about it but number five projected war Mookie Betts not a big surprise but again falls at the hobby logic category in terms of you know he should still deserve more luck with everything that he's done Juan Soto number four six point one for Mookie six point four for Juan Soto the top three are Gunnar Henderson who I think it's kind of sneaky play still like everyone's talking about Jackson everyone's talking about all the other top prospects and rookies but Gunnar's killing it you know he's projected for seven point one war and number two no surprise Aaron Judge at seven point two and then again Bobby Wood at seven point four this coming season there you go can't wait for the baseball season to start but yeah we'll have those guys back on and then that'll be another fun episode with them okay let's go on to our next segment and it's another round of over-under all right initially I wanted to do a quiz show with you but we'll save it for when John's back on because I feel like it's more fun when both of you guys are on to deliberate so we'll just do a quick round of over-under I got four cards for you at different price levels and then yeah you tell me if the last sold price was over or under the amount that I give you okay so we already talked about this player Victor women Yama I'm going with the silver prism PSA 10 2023 $1,000 over under that amount a silver prism rookie card didn't you tell me that what it sold for earlier or did you not so sitting sideways since that may point but you know what there might it might have been there might be there might have been a sale that was my nice that do you know the pop count on that I'm gonna tell you right now it is take a little dive into this pop count is four thousand two hundred ninety four for a PSA it's a lot it's a lot it's a lot let me just check what's San Antonio doing this year they're 500 team right that's what that I I said that before they're gonna be in the fighting for kind of like oh they're under their way under 500 now 2329 standings six games below so I'm taking a long time just looking at NBA standings right now where the Spurs are and how far they are from playoff contention so 12 8 yeah that's gonna be tough 40 something games like so with that high pop count and with it sitting sideways with many options that when B has and this could go either way because I'm feeling it's gonna be just over just under but I'm gonna go under in this case you're right it's all for 840 Wow yeah yeah yeah so I think that part of that is the high pop count yes the tremendous amounts of releases that when B has so a lot of people are kind of off the silver there's a lot more options I think at that price point too I'd rather have an auto right so yeah and he has plenty of autos too so yeah like I said lots of choices for when B collectors all right one for one next one another silver prism of Patrick Mahomes 2017 his rookie year I'm gonna give you $5,000 5,000 man just lost the Super Bowl I know that that's that's why but I'm not normally I would say under but I think there is support at 5,000 I want to think that there's support at 5,000 but it could be like 4,500 or whatever so normally I would say lower just because of the Super Bowl but I think there's enough support enough hype on Patrick Mahomes especially that silver prism because I think we're at close I think it dipped when like my homes had his dump but I think there's support at like that 45 to 5 grand level so I'm gonna say it's still over yeah your reasoning is is right on but it is 4,600 so dip under 5,000 but it is pretty stable between 45 and like even over 5,000 right now to your point yeah okay nice a week before the Super Bowl it was at 5,800 so it dipped to 46 right so 46 I think was a great buy yeah so that's kind of the floor now I think that's what you're looking at I don't think it's gonna go below 4,000 I think those days are gone for for Patrick Mahomes I agree I'm actually looking for Mahomes card in case there are panic sellers out there 100% because you have you have the right years on those cards because those are the ones that like that that year prism yeah was not over produced and like I said I talked about his XRC card I think that's a lot kind of like that I mean it's that's 2016 that's his first prism true first prism right so I'm all in for the XRC too yeah but to your point again his pop count for the silver prism PSA 10 is 968 Wow super low yeah compared to what we were just talking about one B was this over 4,000 that's crazy yeah all right two more speaking of high pop counts for silver prism Luka dodges but I'm going with his 2018 blue prism so a nice color match blue prism card number 2199 these are all PSA 10s I'm gonna throw out 17,000 Wow this one's tough because I don't know Lucas like high-end market I haven't followed it in a while but 17 seems really high but it is a color match PSA 10 and with the hype of the LA Lakers I'm gonna say when was that sale that sale it was had to have been in the last week or two weeks recent this past week this past week I'm gonna say it's over it's over 17 it's gonna be in 20k it sold for 14,500 your instinct was right it was high but I you know I'm sure a lot of people thought it would be around that number two because of the hype and everything but yeah but yeah no that card is amazing by the way that's one of Lucas best-looking cards yes if you can afford it oh man that's a sweet card to have for sure all right last one this is super high-end now because the over under number is a hundred thousand okay okay 1996 97 tops chrome we're just talking about the iconic brand of tops chrome refractor of Kobe Bryant his rookie card iconic brand iconic card sold recently PSA 10 do we have a pop count yep now I know what to prepare before we do the segment again that pop counts everything to me no it's for sure this pop count is 63 and a PSA 10 tops chrome refractor Wow is this all-time high all-time high is 500,000 in February of 2021 yeah so I'm gonna say it's over I'm gonna say there's gonna be another Kobe like long term I'm just basing this off marketplace just in general what the sports card market is doing so I think as a whole you got to categorize Kobe in that as like a class a share like this is the this is the blue chip blue chip so it has to be over 100k you're right it's sold for 104,000 432 but in December it's dipped to 93,000 so that's the more recent low but it looks like it's back up at 100 and that's kind of the floor if you look at the last three four sales it's hovering around the 100k mark I don't think to your point it's gonna dip any lower than that there you go you did pretty well for this over-under good reasoning at least yes and honestly I have I have not been admittedly like I haven't been in on the hobby every day like I used to so these are like yeah life life is happening fast right now for me so like but at the same time I love this because it makes me hone in on the hobby because I love the hobby keeps you updated current values yet you know what that's why I do this podcast because it's it's actually for selfish reasons it's actually keeping me in the hobby which which I love yeah and it's forcing me it's it's self-accountability you know you know what to all our listeners to Young's credit it's absolutely true because I know how busy he is these days and this is why I do for you know essentially full-time so I sometimes feel bad like you know I love it I can you know that's why I like to book guests and and you know try to give both young and John a little break every once in a while but to Young's credit he's like no I'm good to do it this week too so what episode 270 270 episode 273 yeah 273 273 episodes starting way back in 2021 mm-hmm was it yeah we did a half year then yeah starting in Jersey yeah I mean like collecting like we were talking about earlier collect what you love do what you love you know I mean like and that's that helps you be able to sustain what you're doing and this is one of those examples so for sure let's finish off this episode with our regular weekly segment we call pick one and this is why we debate two cards and that we choose which one we were rather invest in for any of our new listeners young do you want to start things off for us sure I'm gonna go baseball as people know and we're gonna we're gonna we're gonna do an interesting take here I'm gonna go Acuna and Tatis so you have a stain resume versus two ACL surgeries what's gonna happen in this hobby in 2025 with these two guys okay so right now there's two sales that were somewhat within the last I would say month three to four weeks because their Bowman chromes don't sell often I would say anymore as often as they used to yeah so the Ronald Acuna 2017 Bowman chrome refractor a PSA 9 Auto 10 so dual dual grade sold for 1300 Wow so 2017 Bowman chrome refractor yeah 1300 for Ronald Acuna his PSA 10s go for about double that all right say yeah this is PSA 9 gotcha okay so I'm out of 499 and I got to add Acuna's auto is is legit this is the Acuna auto you want everything else is auto suck okay I'm gonna pair that up with Fernando Tatis Bowman chrome okay his Bowman chrome came from 2016 his first a BGS 8.5 Auto 10 a blue refractor out of 150 it sold for 1250 so same price as a refractor PSA 9 Auto of Acuna what are you going with because they're the same price that's a good one there's two perspectives yeah one person spent 1250 one person said no this is the better investment 1300 what do you think the justification was okay or what would you pick I know what I would pick I know what you would pick because this is a test actually you know what I don't know if you do oh man here's my reasoning though I'll tell you my reasoning I'm gonna pick Ronald Acuna really yeah because the justification for Tatis is the card itself it's more rare right it's a blue you know it's a nice-looking card BGS 8.5 whatever it's still numbered to 150 so you know you give you give points for the rarity of the card I'm choosing Acuna because of the player there's there's thing there's a you kind of mentioned it before there's a certain stain on Tatis you know I listen there's room I know there's just rumors of you know, let's make a trade for tatties to the J's. I'll be all for that I'm like, okay, we could use the guy like titties, you know, I don't care about a stain whatever, you know Whatever his reasons are as long as he's producing so I have no problem personally But in the hobby there might be some that are like, you know what? I'm just not looking at tatties anymore I don't want to take that risk or I just don't assume it. I thought all the Barry Bonds conversations were gonna sway that You know But Barry Bonds were waiting like decades, right? Tatties, I have to wait. He's gonna do it for everybody though. He's gonna do it for everybody. He's he's he's the guy That's an interesting argument. Yeah, that's interesting And I have to think about this a little bit longer but right now at this moment I'm going with the kunya the player if he has another phenomenal high home run high stolen base total I think the stats will show for itself. And even though it's you know, less scarce. It's still $4.99 You know, I think I think there's a play for it and honestly Ronald Cooney is one of those guys if I'm you know voting based on what I'm actually doing Acuna's on my watch list over tatties even now, so that's why Interesting. So the test Clark was actually that you didn't ask for the sub grades of The tatties because you're supposed to crack it out Yeah, and that was the play because you know, we we talked about it with DC He's the king of crack crack and submit right and this would be the perfect example Practice. Yeah, and it would be a PSA 9 auto 10 I felt the test and this is if you listen to our Friday episode when I talked to DC We're just we're talking about this extensively. So I have a short-term memory. Okay, I'm getting older. I just I guess I blocked that part out already. But yeah, that'll be the right play if you're my answer so my answer to this is tatties, okay, because it is a 8-5 and The only sub grade is a surface Right, so it has good eye appeal center. It was a lot better centering is great It's not perfect, but it's definitely over a 9-5 But we talked about this on Friday's pod episode with DC, you know PPS a is coming down hard and DC's already seen No on centering remember they change Right, so I agree with that though, I think they were way too lenient with the centering But this is what I'm saying DC already got his recent PSA sub back if you listen to a Friday episode And he says oh I'm getting a lot more PSA nines now So, yeah, I mean I would I would shoot for a PSA 9 on this card like Because it would be a it would be a 8-5 similar to kind of like I guess the trout right? right kind of similar where it's like I Would expect a big upgrade would be a 9 and I've done that on that max for a stop in one of one card Where it was a 8-5 and I got the PSA 9 bump So it'd be in this same situation where I got you Hey, it's a blue out of 150 first Bowman for 1250 crack that Resubmit it that would be my play but that's what that's why I brought these up because I thought you were gonna be you're so obsessed with crack and submits in the Last like few months because you even did it with your trout. Yes, and we recorded that If my BGS 9-5 refractor that I got starts to dip we're gonna have to do another crack and submit I'm not letting you do that one No, why I don't think I'm so like the reason why is like there's a good chance you get a PSA 9. Mm-hmm Just based on just based on subjectivity and pop count Right, right. So and and it's numbered so you never know they might do research and say, okay, it was a BGS 9-5 That's true, right? We're not gonna give this a PSA 10. That's what I'm scared of is like it's so subjective if it was like That BGS grades it properly and I'm confident that PSA is gonna grade it properly then Yes, let's let's go ahead because the upside of the PSA 10, but like you said what what? DC's been experiencing too and I get it is because they're seeing so many of these older cards that look great But then they're like why are so many people submitting all these big cards? Why weren't they graded before? Yes, they were obviously graded before and more people are cracking and submitting hoping for that PSA 10 So they're cracking down on the pop count in my opinion Yep, that's a good reason. But at the same time I'm telling you, you know, like The so we heard from DC to the BGS bump right from his graded card review I don't get how it goes from a 9-5 or 10 to a black label from the same company So you're not gonna complain you you're benefiting from it. But was it was it in a in a RC? No, like it was a graded Slap card and they they just request that they cracked it or they requested it was So it's not a 1010 slab, right? So I guess yeah, I guess during the GCR review. They're like, oh, yeah Well up it to a black label Without cracking it. Yeah, isn't that what GCR is? You don't crack it, right? Oh, it was a it was a rock hard review No a graded card review, there's a GCR graded card like yeah, yeah like oh great. Okay. I see. I see. I see Yeah, that that's that's a little Anyway, this is why I don't understand so, you know, I guess it depends on the day, you know Maybe the reviewers like I'm not gonna look at past references. Yeah, it's very subjective You know So and it depends on the conditions and of the what the situation is You know, I mean like there's so many factors that can play into this. But anyway, that's another episode all together All right. Let's go finish this with my pick one. If you remember the last time we did pick one together I did Brady vs. Mahomes. This is Brady vs. Mahomes part two. Okay, and I think we chose Mahomes cuz the card for Brady wasn't the right one. It was the Bowman not the Bowman chrome rookie Okay, so I'm going really high end here. We're going for this Bowman chrome. Not just as Bowman chrome His Bowman chrome refractor BGS 9-5. Okay of Tom Brady sold for a hundred two thousand right, and this is a October of 2022. So these are the variables now so sold a right few years ago, October 2022 102,000 for a Bowman chrome refractor rookie BGS 9-5 versus Patrick Mahomes gold prism number 210 BGS 9-5 sold May of 2023 for a hundred three thousand so Pretty much the same price one sold in 2023 one sold in 2022 closer to the peak What are you going for? I'm going I'm this is easy for me not because I have a hundred three thousand dollars lying around but because When you said gold Mm-hmm. Now that it's done Prism gold. Yeah that that's all you need to say and For me, I I think there's so much more upside on that Patrick Mahomes card because of that Whereas the Brady is kind of like, okay, it's it's like those long term Keep it in the safe You know, I mean it's in in ten years. It's probably gonna have a nice steady increase Sit sideways a bit maybe What was the peak of that? The Brady refractor in if is there any PSA 10 sales the peak looks like it was 462,000 Right, so it's pretty low. Yeah, so it's pop count is 32 for a BGS 9-5 and the PSA 10 sold for 336,000 February of 2023 Okay, so it's not a bad investment I don't think it's a bad invest I think it's still reasonable by at 103 based on cops I think it could dip below 2 but the pop count is super low on that and But Mahomes is out of 10 and The gold prism the amount of I appeal on that gold prism Mahomes to me. That's that's up That's a card that I think has massive massive legs Yeah massive, so I'm gonna go Mahomes. I don't know with my homes as well But I should have done more research because I filtered the card ladder By price, so that's why you're getting these dates 2022-23. Okay. There was a more recent sale of the Brady chrome refractor in a BGS 9-5 67,000 Wow So that's a great buy. Are you buying that card at 67,000 or? The Mahomes gold, I I think I would See, that's different now 40% discount on the Brady PSA 10 sold for 300 K You're gonna crack Henry's admit. No, definitely not crack Henry submit just because of the pop count But I would say I would say that was a high price point. It's still 2022-23 was still high true value of the PSA 10 might be 200 K maybe a BGS at half of that to So I think I think it's still it's a really good buy at 60 K Based on where the price is So to me it would be like now you're talking a little more like even I would say at 67 K but still going my homes That gold prism man. You got it. I think I think we still got to go my home Yeah, I I agree. I think the gold Mahomes just because it's gold prism. Yeah, I think that's like the seal I'd rather spend the premium for that card, although Like if you're talking now 50 K 40 K for that, maybe I think that's where it's like, okay Yeah, I think that's the price point where I would say I would move over I think 50,000 would be that price point if I move over. Yeah I mean one of the and it went off with this One of the reasons is for me for this pick one is I think my homes has done enough People forget that he's won three Super Bowls already, you know, I mean like people are he lost another one So two Super Bowl, but he's still young and he's still I think Casey Chase will always not got under Yeah, it's not done and you know, I Brady respect. Obviously. He's a goat I think he's in the goat category, but yeah, my homes isn't done either So and I think it's it's it's based on how his body matures, right? Cuz that that's the thing that Brady had his upside. He got better as his career progressed So it's like your body has to be different than you know I mean and that's up to Patrick Mahomes at the end of the day and what also how much abuse he takes on the field Right now and is his longevity there, right? So that's the only thing that you would have to gauge It's like okay would do I see Patrick Mahomes as long-term or is this more of a next bump? Sell take profits, right but Tom Brady. He's already done it, you know, he's it's it's a grail card, right? So hundred percent. Yep, I agree All right with that. Thanks again to all our listeners and subscribers for tuning in We appreciate you guys and we'll have a brand new episode for you next week. Talk to you then Hey, thanks for listening to cards to the moon We'd really appreciate you subscribing to our podcast wherever you listen to your podcasts And you can also connect with each of us on instagram at five card guys Or you can follow young at integrity sports cards or John at trade you at recess You can also check us out at five card guys calm Thanks again, and hope to connect soon