Will New Walmart Live Breaking Platform Succeed With We The Hobby Card Store? More Partnerships A Good Sign For Hobby (ie. PSA + Burbank Sports Cards); PSA 10 Base Vs. PSA 9 Refractor?

You're listening to Cards to the Moon, a podcast about trading cards from both a collector and investor perspective. We hope you'll stick around for the ride as we take a deep dive into the state of the hobby, share some hot takes, hopefully some useful advice and fun stories along the way. Hey guys, welcome back to Cards to the Moon. This is episode 295, my name is Clark from 5cardguys.com, and you can also find me at 5cardguys, all one word, on Instagram, YouTube and on Facebook. Co-hosting with me is Hyung, and you can find him at ChoHyung on IG and YouTube as well. Johnny's away this week again, but it's all good, hopefully he'll be back with us soon. Alright, off the top, it's funny that I think in our last episode we were joking about how Eli De La Cruz has like several rookie cards over different years, and part of the problem really is that he was called up mid-season. And I looked it up, he was called up June 6th, 2023 to be more precise. And so really that means he couldn't be in top series 1 of that year, because obviously it was released just before the season starts, and it was too late for him to be in top series 2, which is released mid-year, and I believe he didn't even make the cutoff to be in tops update, which is released at the end of the season. So if you look for Eli De La Cruz's rookie cards, his tops flagship, it's actually in 2024 tops series 1, although his rookie season was technically 2023. Anyway, I bring this up because I saw a recent article that now definitively states, moving forward, the end of May is the cutoff date for rookies to get their cards in that year's product. That's I guess what tops announced. It used to be a little bit more fuzzy when the deadline was, because some rookies were called up late May, which was fine, and some rookies were called up early June, and they still made it to the tops update box. But now the hard cutoff date is end of May. I'll just add this one thing before I ask for your thoughts, Hyung. The confusion really is, just for Eli De La Cruz's card in 2023, since he was called up in June 6 and didn't get into tops update, that didn't mean he didn't have any cards in 2023. It was actually in the tops now cards, which is growing in popularity, and it was branded call up baseball card, essentially, and it didn't have the RC logo on it. So, Hyung, first your thoughts on the hard cutoff date, end of May. Do you like it or do you think it should be case by case? I think setting standards, boundaries is good. As a hobbyist, we want to know as well what we're waiting for, what sets, what players. So now that we have a standard, I think it's gonna, I prefer it personally. I think there are a couple strategic moves that, I guess, tops is thinking of, maybe. Because if you limit, one, I think long term, it's great for rookie cards in general. Because I think it limits rookie cards, it keeps top series one and series two and chrome very relevant. And then as well, you know, the tops chrome update. Now that becomes the debut patch at the end of the year, the chase. So I like that as a whole concept and idea. And I didn't like the fact that you get so many different versions of rookie cards. If you think about it, like Otani, for instance, let's go back to 2018. You could go to Aaron Judge, you could go to Acuna in 2018, Soto in 2018. I mean, Acuna was called up after April 15th, I believe, but before May. So he fell in that top series two. So that's where the bat down image was a short printed run. But then they included him in update, which is the bat up. So think of the scarcity of Ronald Acuna series two card compared to if they didn't print update that year. And same goes with Otani. Think of the craziness we would have had. Because I think one of the reason why Otani flagship rookie cards don't sell is no one knows which one's which. There's so many of them. Right. Do you know what I mean? And same with Acuna. Same with Soto. Judge is not that bad. But starting 2018, I feel that's when there was so many different standards that kind of ruin not ruin. But like, like I said, Otani's base rookie cards and that flagship, you have two options, you have tops 700. And then you have us update, right? So having to kind of rookie cards with different parallels, I think it ruins the scarcity of the card in the long run. So I like, I like the idea. I don't know how it's all going to unfold and what it looks like and how tops Chrome update is gonna do the debut patches reflecting on only people in series one series two. I don't know what what the deal is. Does that mean tops finest Bowman's best follows the same thing like, you know what I mean? So yeah. You know, something I didn't even think about until you were talking is yeah, what happens if they get called up before that made end of May deadline? Right? Do they include in top series to end tops update like there should be a standard for that as well. I think I think that that cut off should be anybody in top series one and series two should be in Chrome and update. Right? If that makes sense. Yeah, that is it's all standard. It's you're in you made series two, you if you make series one and series two, that means you're in Chrome plus you're in tops Chrome update as a debut as a debut patch. Yeah. Yes. Yeah. I think that's simple enough. Yeah, that's pretty simple. Put in rules and rules. Come on. Yeah. No, that's I I'm with you. I like standards, you know, and and I would like to say this is why baseball card collecting is a little more complex than other sports, right? Because you can get called up as a rookie at any time during the year, you know, pretty much. Whereas in football and basketball, you usually start at the beginning of the season, you know, when you're going to start and, you know, and also with baseball, you could be in the minors for a long time. You just don't know exactly. So that's what's unique. And I think this is where the distinction comes in play. I know we get or I get a lot of slack when I say their first Bowman Chrome, which is I give you a lot of slack inside to Clark and it's not it's not his rookie card, Clark. I hear that quite a bit from the purists. OK, the purists like to say, hey, stop calling it a rookie auto. It's a prospect auto. And you know, for all intents and purposes, we see that as the best rookie auto. OK, sorry. Sorry to say. But while we're talking about this now, I can see, you know, or this is more relevant to that debate prospect versus rookie, because the prospect autos usually are issued first Bowman Chrome anyway, like two or three years before they actually make it to the big leagues. Right. So just throwing that out there. People might call me hypocritical, but I'm just throwing it out there before you call me that. OK, I think going back to your point on Tops Now as well, I think that it makes Tops Now more valuable, in my opinion. Sure. Right. So you have a flagship Chase and then you have your Tops Now and then your Chrome Parallels and then your debut auto. So it kind of makes sense in that in that regards. Yeah, I think it's good. I think I'll be less confusing moving forward. And to your point, I'm glad you brought Otani and Acuna as examples, because even I'm confused. I'm like, which one's the one to get? Which one do I really like? Which is more valuable? Yeah, I'm sure I'm not. I'm definitely not the only one that thinks that way. All right. Let's move on to hobby headlines. OK, so this is an interesting development in the breaking space of the hobby. First, we know that Walmart previously launched their own marketplace online to sell trading cards, if you remember, Young, and we covered it on this podcast. Not sure how well that's going, but I think I can safely say eBay has nothing to worry about yet. All right. I'm not on Walmart, their website to sell cards. But anyway, Walmart is doubling down, it seems, on the hobby because they're getting into the breaking business, having recently partnered with We The Hobby, which is a card store and a breaker in Rochester. I believe I was in Rochester several months ago and they have their shop there. So yeah, they're partnering up with We The Hobby to start breaks on the Walmart live platform. So your immediate thoughts, Young, about hearing this news. And yeah, right after I got some more broad follow up questions for you in regards to what you think about, in general, big corporations and companies partnering up with local hobby shops in general like this. But first, yeah, what do you think about the whole Walmart news? It's interesting that it's not something direct from Fanatics. It's partnered through a hobby shop. At first, I didn't even know about this one when you mentioned it. I thought it was interesting that somebody like Walmart is continuing, I guess, this path. Because I don't know. We talked about Walmart getting into it and I didn't hear anything after that, nor did I follow up. So I don't know how successful it went. But I imagine that Walmart sees the potential of the hobby based on just the retail sales alone. Their issues with the retail, people returning stuff. It's a big industry and they see it as that, right? So I feel as though Walmart does see the potential. So one, it's interesting that it's not Fanatics directly with Walmart. It's WeTheHobby, Walmart Club. Maybe that was intentional to keep breakers or retail shops relevant as well, or hobby shops relevant as well. But I think this is a birth also of just retail in general. I think Target, even Amazon, all these massive, massive corporate platforms have huge, I guess, opportunity in the card space because retail has always been part of the hobby. It was always retail. You could get the not so, I guess, the cheaper boxes and long shot hits. And then if you're a hobbyist, you pay a little more and go to a hobby shop. That's kind of like the old school setup of the way we purchase cards. So it's always been a history for retail to be in the space. We're just seeing it, I guess, as technology increases, Walmart's saying, okay, are we just the standalone retail space? Is this where we see the hobby going where it's just the standalone retail space? And I think based on their decisions and their actions, they see it as more. They see the opportunities, whether it's breaking, whether it's online. And I don't know that analytics or data, they have to have a lot of it. And that, I mean, people running it, they're not dumb. They're not in it to not make money. So I imagine it went well, or they see at least the potential as long as they put the necessary investments into the ecosystem or platform. Yeah, that all makes sense to me. And I think for Walmart, it's almost a no brainer, right? Like you were saying, how retail has always been part of the hobby. I think it's going to continue to be part of the hobby. And this is just kind of another marketing vehicle for them in a way, right? They're breaking retail products on their platform, and that just gets eyes on the product that they sell, especially cards specifically, right? So I think when people, if they do come onto the breaks, or they actually see it streamed on wherever, Walmart Live, they're like, wait a minute, I could just... I think it's more likely that people who collect will go to Walmart to just pick up their own box because it's generally cheaper than hobby boxes or jumble boxes that you get at hobby shops, right? It's a different skew altogether. So I like that about it as a marketing play. So that's kind of my first thoughts. And I think Walmart and other retail places like Target, Amazon, they have so much potential to... For instance, if I'm Walmart, I'm investing in a purchaser or buyer who understands the hobby. That's his specialty. And if Walmart were to, let's just say, put a whole section, they have entertainment, they have groceries, they have... If they had a hobby section, or even a whole hobby section in general, I think they could capitalize so much. And it's different than hobby shops. It's a totally different product because retail is a different product in general. You have mega boxes, you have other different types of sets that's not available necessarily in the hobby shop. And we've even seen it. In any time there's a massive set release, whether it's basketball, football, baseball, hobby boxes are so expensive that people go to retail. You know what I mean? And then it's the problem of those scalpers who end up taking all the retail. We see all the memes and especially in Pokemon you see it a lot. So I feel like Walmart hasn't even touched the surface in terms of... Or any retail. I'm not even talking... When we say Walmart, that includes Target, Amazon, or whoever big platform wants to kind of participate in this. Because if they're already purchasing, already going inside the store... Why wouldn't you expand that, especially if the whole marketplace is expanding? It's you gotta jump on that side of things and be kind of the front runner, I would say, and that's what I'm glad Walmart's doing. If I'm running a big company like Walmart, that's exactly what I'm gonna be the innovator into a marketplace like sports cards because I know how much growth is in that overall marketplace. For sure, for sure, I love what they're doing and it's only good for the hobby that things like this are happening. It means that it's growing, that bigger companies and corporations are actually paying attention and investing in the space and who knows if it'll work out exactly the way they had envisioned. Maybe they have to change a few things, tweak a few things here and there, but the fact that they're trying things out is always a good sign. And like you, I really like the idea that they've been partnering up with We The Hobby, which is more knowledgeable about the hobby space, and instead of hiring their own guys to start their own, be the breaking host, that might work, but why don't you start with a reputable hobby shop that can help out in this way? So I like that move by Walmart. I could totally see Target jumping on board if that's kind of the playbooks out there now, right? And maybe they could innovate on top of what Walmart's doing. So I wouldn't be surprised at all to tell you the truth if Target makes an announcement soon about what they're doing. And you know, like with bigger, the only criticism is with the bigger corporations and like bigger retailers specifically, usually their websites are pretty junky, clunky, so they might have to just hire a website designer. Okay, please hire just, you know, out of that multimillion dollar budget, I'm sure you could hire like a nice marketing designer type role and fill that in and just make the user experience better. I think that's half the battle. For sure, the user experience, going back to the user experience, I think the hobby itself has not experienced user experience at the potential it has, because we have not reached the technologies that we're gonna reach in the next few years. So I'm interested to see what type of technology comes into play. Even like, I'm just thinking of shopping online at Walmart. Like anytime you look for cards too, you don't know if it's directly at Walmart or if it's a third party. So there's a lot of things that from a user experience that Walmart online kind of sucks, right? But like I said, as technology increases, as our platform, you know, potential increases, this is where I think someone like Walmart, like you said, they have really big budgets. There's no reason why they can't create an incredible user experience, especially if it's aligned with kind of the future path of what they're trying to do. So yeah, I think it's gonna be interesting in the next few years. I'm a big believer on technology itself, just because we've made that shift. Even when we started getting back into the hobby, 2018, 2019, to see it now based on where we are, it's incredible. Even grading companies, you know, it was only Beckett and PSA, and Beckett was such a big player in the game, you know, probably more reputable than PSA at the time. And now it's just like totally different within, you know, five, six years. And that was a quick five, six years. So the next five, six years, where do we see the hobby is all I'm kind of looking at. And based on what Fanatics is doing every week, it took the card hobby 15 years to do a fraction of what Fanatics is doing right now. So we're going in kind of like quantum timeline jumping, fast forward, like, you know, so. No, for sure. And going back to your point about, you know, and tying in with what you were just saying, four or five years from now, I wouldn't be surprised if we do have a hobby section in Walmart. I'd love that, yeah. Right, and I think we even discussed that idea the last time we talked about, you know, Walmart coming into the hobby space, just having that marketplace online. Like, hey, why don't they have a place where you can rip and submit your cards to PSA or to a grading company? We, I distinctly remember that discussion. And that's a good segue to, I also wanted to bring up quickly that Burbank Cards in California, they just opened up their new shop. From what I've seen on Instagram, it looks huge, it looks clean. It's great for the hobby too, you know, to have a place like that where you can visit. And almost like for hobbyists, it's kind of a destination if you're in California, you gotta visit their store now. And as part of their store opening, they also announced that PSA is officially setting up shop permanently in their stores where you could just walk in and submit your cards to PSA at, right inside Burbank Cards. So that's another example of a bigger company or corporation partnering up with essentially a local hobby shop. So what do you think of just that general kind of model in advancing the hobby? And can you picture anything else in terms of those kinds of partnerships for the hobby? For sure, I think it's smart on PSA's behalf. These guys are the ones pushing your product that are face-to-face with the consumer. So PSA's doing a really good job with marketing the digital presence. And we've seen it, I think, I forgot where I've seen it. Maybe it was scrolling or one of you guys sent the link where it's another record-breaking month for PSA submissions. Again, fourth month in a row or whatever. It was fifth month in a row. That data alone shows you that people are submitting. So why not partner up with the biggest names, the most reputable names to create that user experience a lot more fluid, a lot more easier, where I could go, I don't have to ship out these cards. One of the biggest problems with a lot of newcomers into the hobby, and I was included. When I did my first submission, I was like, man, is somebody gonna intercept this package? You know, because you hear the horror stories, right? And if you're new to the hobby, that's the first thing. You don't want to send $1,000 cards, right? You're more comfortable with going into a reputable dealer saying, you know what? It's insured, it's all protected, they're reputable. I trust them, I handed it off. And to me, that's thinking about the user. That's thinking about us to make that process a lot easier because the data shows that millions and millions of cards are getting graded each month. So it's like, how do you continue that scalability to make it easier? Because you're still gonna get the online submissions. It looks like they're tying in retail and face-to-face transactions, customer experience as a priority, which should be. So for me, it makes sense from PSA. I think companies that don't do that end up regretting it two, three years down the road because they don't end up capitalizing when they had the momentum going on their side. So I see it as protection, growing, and security for PSA by these partnerships and vice versa. These are the guys you want to be credible because they're online as well. They're pumping the digital media content out to be relevant within the card market space. So you gotta do collabs. You gotta do partnerships. Right now is the time to capitalize on that. Yeah, and from that, two points that I immediately thought of. Beckett, you could do this too. You could partner up with big retailers, take opportunity. It's very much in the early stages, right? Why not reach out to Walmart or another retailer, Target, and say, hey, can we set up a, give us a corner piece of your retail space and we'll work on security and making sure that everything, that's another thing altogether, right? We joked about Walmart should have a PSA submission, but do we trust the teenagers that are working at Walmart? It makes sense not to do that because I would say submission is more like, okay, you're serious about this, so go to, yeah. Okay, fair enough, fair enough. But as the hobby grows, you go where the people are at. Absolutely. Hey, we have already seen those adult scalpers going to retail stores, okay, to take advantage of those kids. But you never know how the hobby grows and the businesses can flourish and that essentially dictates your decision-making process, right? So Beckett could do that. And the other thing is, and I was gonna edit this out, but I can't think of it. So if it comes back later on in this podcast, I'll just kind of bring it back. But yeah, at the end of the day, I think there's so much opportunity that seeing examples like this could even get other retailers and other people within the hobby, broadly speaking, have more creative ideas on how they could grow the hobby. So I love seeing news like this and yeah, it'll be kind of cool. Of course, we're up here in Canada. Things happen much later than when it happens in the States. Hopefully, yeah, we'll start to see this kind of innovation development here north of the border as well, right? So, okay, you know what? Let's go on to our next segment. It's called Would You Rather? All right, so I can't remember the last time we did this, but it's essentially a glorified pick one, right? But it's gonna be, I'm gonna give you two hobby-related choices and you essentially choose which one you would rather do or have, okay? So I got five for you today. The first one is from one of our podcast listeners, Joel Cratter, shout out to Joel. And he submitted this to us through DMs. Would you rather have a first Bowman autograph base card in a PSA 10 or a first Bowman autograph refractor card in a PSA 9? And he says, any player, it doesn't matter who, but basically a base auto PSA 10 first Bowman or a base auto refractor PSA 9? This is one of the greatest questions in the hobby, in my opinion, because I still fight over it for the last like five years. I think for me, at least, we always preach, you know, buy the card, not the grade. But I think it has to be done on an individual basis. And depending on what your whole end goal is, because if a PSA 10 is scarce, I'm in on the PSA 10 base. But if it's not scarce, I'd rather have the numbered refractor in a PSA 9, if that makes sense. And there's a couple of reasons for that, is one, obviously values, you know, over time, if you get a scarce PSA 10, that's, you know, they don't have that many, you're gonna, the liquidity is gonna be better. So on ups and downs, your liquidity is gonna be way better than a refractor PSA 9, right? But it goes back to a hobbyist in you. Are you collecting the card? Are you collecting, you know, a scarcity grade about that card? And I get both because a PSA 10 slab still is valuable, regardless if it's a base auto, because now you're dealing with the scarcity of graded cards, instead of scarcity of production run cards. So, but refractors look way better, right? So there's always that push and pull from me as well, where I've had both. But in my personal experience, when I do liquidate, that becomes the deciding factor. Usually, PSA 10s are a lot easier to sell in the long run. When there is a bump, they get the bump. PSA 9s can always be low balled, I find. And I always said too, any PSA 9 is a great value buy, where I'm thinking BGS 9, five crossovers. So there's so many different variables to it. But with that said, you know, it's all dependent on the card. I think that's a really good answer though. It's very nuanced. And you know, just the way you explained it, I couldn't say it better myself. But in general, the purest in me, I'm always going for the refractor. That's more actually more scarce card, the numbered one. And especially if it's just a PSA 9. It might be different if it's a PSA 8 or 7, then that comes into play as well. But if you're giving me a PSA 9, fractor numbered, generally I'm gonna go for that, because I think the value is much better than the PSA 10 of the base. What if the pop counts were the same? Then that's different. But I'm generally, the reason why I'm saying generally a lot, right? Is that modern cards these days, you're gonna get a lot more PSA 10s now than, right? When you're collecting Buster Posey, or that era of cards. You know, when it was a little bit more strict. And back then Beckett was still predominant, you know, predominantly the greater you send to for your first Bowman Chromes, right? So, but nowadays everyone submits to PSA. A lot more PSA 10s come back. You could check the pop counts. I'm sure the more modern players in the 2020s, you're gonna see a lot more PSA 10s to tell you the truth, because it's fresh out of the pack. There shouldn't be any, unless it's miscut, right? But yeah. So I think generally speaking, if you're collecting now modern baseball, especially we're talking about first Bowman, I guess it could be football too, but for us mostly baseball, then I'm still going with the refractor, which is numbered. You know, that's my play, but it's a good question because even then if it's a refractor, it's 499, right? So, there's still you know there's a green there's a blue there's a gold right as until you get you know when you get to the more rare ones like the gold and the blues then the grading matters less i think in my opinion do you know i mean so i'd rather have a psa 7 gold of a good player than a psa 10 base yes yes i agree 100 agree and i think that's where the refractors get tricky is because it's like there's a little too many and then there's psa 10 refractors there's a bunch of those so it's like okay do i want to and that it goes back to that short term if i'm short term the liquidity and i want to make you know maximum dollars potentially at the right time i unload a psa 10 that is inflated in value and i could maybe move it into a numbered card of that version where it's a lower grade and people are willing to kind of get rid of that that would be my long-term play if i really like the player there you go joel your uh complicated complex answer to your your simple good question straightforward question yeah it's a good debate for sure okay the next four are much simpler and more fun i think in terms of being more light-hearted but i saw this tweet would you rather have or i saw this card specifically a game used shoelaces relic card okay right you don't see that often but i just saw a tweet about that oh my god that's interesting or a game use cleat relic card oh man well i was never a fan of the cleat like i just like eye appeal wise it just looks like yeah any any type of base cleat um unless the cleat is like it's like the nike patch of the cleat nike patch of the cleat not not the cleat itself not the spike itself like it's part of the shoe right you know i'm talking about but you got to see some cleat that's what i'm talking about you know that's the bottom part because in baseball i call the whole cleats the whole shoe is the cleats but if we're talking about the metal spike in the within the cleat then to me it's just like uh but then shoelaces like i just think shoelace looks better if i pull the shoelace patch out and i'm like damn like what is what is the shoelace like cool but then if i got a cleat i'd be like like cool it's a cleat but it looks ugly it's just a metal piece sticking out right so hey and how thick is that card like yeah they're both pretty thick they have to be shoelace doesn't have to be it's pretty flat i would i would think but that cleat has to be like a 3d 3d card right like it's a block so i'm gonna go with shoelaces in this case i know that that that sounds crazy but you're very limited i'm not a big cleat collector i guess or spike i usually say cleats spike collector that's fair fair enough i thought i don't know i i envisioned that you would appreciate the cleat more because you played pro ball so i don't know or maybe maybe it's for the you know the regular fan finds it more much more cool than than potentially i i could i could see the appeal i could see the appeal yeah um with that said i think the shoelaces looks better too and maybe it's it's a picture they tied in a nice bow you know if you're bored you can untie it and tie it if you want so you can do more things with the shoelace than with the cleat so i'm gonna go with shoelaces as well all right uh we kind of brought this up last week in our previous episode the t206 honus wagner that's currently up for auction on golden i think it's over three million still crazy but golden was on a news show just recently i think fox news or nbc i can't remember which one and he was talking about this card and uh specifically in a psa one he's hoping that it goes anywhere from six to seven million when the auction's over in in a couple weeks wow would you rather have that card or i was looking for comps what costs six million dollars um you know that what's sold for six million the closest thing i found that it's more appealing to me i don't know for you um for any nirvana fans kurt cobain's guitar the one he played in the mtv unplugged the you know back in the day people our age will know what i'm referring to girl if you grew up in the 90s yeah you know exactly what i'm saying his guitar sold for 6.1 million recently in an auction so interesting very very interesting um you know and i'm probably the wrong person to ask i i'm a music guy though i will say i love music i grew up in the 90s you know nirvana was massive uh grown up but for me i'm baseball at heart like to me the t206 is a piece of mona lisa piece of art it's a 52 mantle it's it's it's a grail that's probably even more than the 52 mantle a lot more rare um so for me this is the easy one it's the t206 i thought you would say that for me it's harder um little you know unknown or relatively unknown fact about clark kim long hair clark kim i didn't have i didn't have long hair but i did have the the middle part where i had long bangs that's as close as i got right back in the day but it's that era actually that era of the haircut um i i learned guitar because of nirvana i wanted to learn every never mind song you know and so it means more to me as a nirvana fan kirklebane fan that being said i just think there's more value in the t206 there's more baseball card collectors out there than probably nirvana fans right so now now at least and and so i'm going with the t206 as well although the the kirklebane guitar is pretty cool all right um next one i put this poll on instagram stories with my bobby wood jr home field advantage super factor and um on the friday episode that i recently ran i was talking about how the ig story poll suggests that most people would rather have the psa 8 versus the psa authentic it wasn't even close right right and um so i i pondered to myself i wonder at what number grade you would start to change your mind okay and there was a paul skeen's home field advantage super factor that sold on golden for under 9 000 it's actually relisted now on ebay and the auction has about five days left it's at i think 1300 now i'm sure that'll go up in the last days of the auction but that psa um sorry that paul skeen's home field advantage super factor is greater than psa 6 okay so would you rather have that card in the psa 6 or would you crack that out and get a psa authentic that's interesting um one i think because it's a super factor i wouldn't care i'm okay with the psa 6 i don't think i need to crack it out into authentic i think any other card i would not a super factor i i at least i wouldn't have the need to i rather take my chances and recrack it hoping that psa will give me an eight okay that's uh yeah i call that the dc move just recrack it i'm okay with that i i think i would do that over going straight authentic right away but i think i would just hold the psa 6 just because it's super fractal you know it's it's a super frac it's a one-of-one it doesn't matter what grade it's it's the only one available and no one if as long as visually appealing right i think uh yeah i wouldn't uh the only case i would do that if i think is if it was an auto um so if it was an auto i would probably crack it into an authentic hoping that i would get an authentic auto 10 right yeah i can see that yeah i think you could argue the same thing if it was already in a psa authentic right it's a one-on-one it's a super factor so it doesn't matter what the number grade is so i'm for sure if it was already an authentic i'm just going to keep it authentic right right yeah so i think you can make that same argument and that's the argument i kind of made like even before it was graded i think if you see that okay there's there's some surface damage so it might come as a low grade then would you just not even risk it and and i mentioned that now that psa has the option of minimum grades like if it doesn't hit a certain grade yeah to say authentic so you don't have to make that decision right yeah i mean i would yeah i would definitely if i seen a physical mark and i'm the one submitting it i would just straight go for the authentic uh uh slab sure no we and we did this actually with um andrew's card so uh andrew uh one of our buddies in the chat group he and this was before the otani hype this is a massive massive card but he got this is a funny story i'm just going to quickly tell it because it's not really funny but because he got the crappy end of the deal uh where uh the card it was an otani exquisite auto which is an insane card now at the time he bought it for relatively cheap it was still overpriced at the time but now looking at hindsight but right the guy shipped it in like a paper towel and the corner was absolutely mangled oh man yeah so it was kind of one of those things where he he wanted to submit it but the auto was amazing it's a beautiful auto and we we knew that it wasn't going to grade well but we both agreed that we need to get this uh slabbed one but because the auto's so uh crisp that we're going for the authentic auto 10 and he got that slab um uh as an authentic auto 10 and even that even though the grade is not great just having that auto 10 grade makes that card so much more valuable than what it would have been even sitting raw right so sure yeah i would do that directly but that but in the end it's a massive car heard huge win for for for andrew but yeah it was a pretty pretty big dick move by whoever shipped it in a paper towel yeah i think i'm hoping that people know by now don't ship things in paper towels yeah that's uh we're more knowledgeable about things like that that in the hobbies so yeah so um i remember that i remember that but um huge card now like you're saying i think i'm sticking with the psa authentic i think i'm gonna six is uh i know it doesn't matter if it's a one of one but seven's my cutoff seven is seven right that that's what i usually say seven is good but i wouldn't go out of my way is what i'm saying if it was already in a six and it's a home field advantage and it's a one-on-one then i would go it all depends on the card because like i said if it was an auto that was good definitely yeah fair enough okay last would you rather would you rather buy high on otani we're joking about this in their chat like i don't think i don't think there'll ever be a buy low opportunity for otani the way he's playing these days he's on pace to hit like you know like 175 runs which what what that happened in the 20s 1920s yeah anyway uh buy high on otani or buy low on trout how low is going guys um and and otani new current highs are future lows i guess right so are we really potentially potentially potentially that's what we've been saying for four years potentially potentially but every single high is a new low just remember that you know when the new low is going to happen when i buy an otani 100 it's waiting for us to be one of the guys that go all in on a card and then that's when it all happens i'm not going to be that guy i might i'm getting fomo now so we'll see i i think um wow this this is tough and it's mike trout is back now which is good he's back 10 home runs you know he's he's hitting home run what's he hitting under 200 still no 230 now okay okay good th every day right now so yeah yeah i think any time like emotions are saying buy high on otani right now emotions and we know that you know emotion buying on emotions is not a good thing right so i think the right move definitely is buying trout at a low um i think he's still done enough to rectify and it all depends on if you're a super fan of otani then it becomes invaluable but if you're doing it just based on oh what's going to be worth more or at least what's the best roi for my money i think trout might be be the way i think otani still he's he's still relevant so i think in the long term it's still going to be an upward trend but we don't know how downward it can get in terms of correction and i don't no one knows because no one knows how big the marketplace is going to be no nobody's going to know how otani is going to continue this or if he's going to settle down for a few years and then continue it it all depends and that's the trend of the price right the the fact is that otani has been doing this for the last four or five years on a consistent basis i don't know is is he gonna stop i don't think so unless something really bad happens it's like we've seen incredibleness so i don't mind either is what i'm saying but the trout has to be of good value and i i said this to myself too would i ever invest in a super high end otani and the answer is yes so i i because i think even if you put cash into otani like a high i think it's still a decent investment because if if it's a if it's the right card and if it's long term and you believe in it right where it's like 20 you're dropping 25 grand but you you see it as a hundred thousand dollar card i think i'm okay with that okay but yeah but i don't think I don't think a lot of the cards are there it has to be the right card so I think there's a couple cards that people are overpaying that's gonna sit sideways now no matter how much Otani does just based on scarcity alone so it's the right card I would do it but the non-emotional me is saying trout is the right play okay so you're leaning toward by low on trout after all that yeah like I said it's it's it's emotion versus logic yeah yep this is a hard one for me that's why I asked it and I was I'm glad I'm not the only one that thinks this one was difficult but mad FOMO right now I'm like always looking for Otani cards I'm like should I pull the trigger on this specifically there's a red ink heritage auto card first one in a Dodgers uniform it's a 5k now I'm like that's I don't want it raw right so I don't want to do that but the more I look at I'm like I might that's a long-term play like to me that's that's a great I don't even think that's necessarily overpaying sure as you can buy yeah I when I say overpaying I we're talking about tops chrome colored that's golds are going for 30 40 K oh I'm not even thinking that I'm thinking like even base first Bowman chrome base we're talking about first comment okay base PSA 10 over 10 K yeah that's that's maybe overpaying yeah whereas a numbered red ink auto of a Dodgers uniform could be a great buy at that point right yeah because and it goes back to is is rookie cards the only valuable card right right so and you know like I've had discussion with Brent aka deep value investor he thinks I'm stretching he's like would you would you do this with other players and then I joked I'm like no but he's Otani singular she's the only one I would make many exceptions for essentially at this point yes so anyway that's an aside but call me a fool call me an idiot I'm buying low on trout I'm going back to the well if I had to make this choice I'm going back oh man but what that said Clark I think there's opportunity to do a hybrid approach here and because I feel like there are Otani cards that are on sale mmm so maybe maybe not buying into the Otani hyped up cards and go into a second tier card with a trout by lower right I think that's the right play we've created a third option for you guys always love third options young is a master of creating third answers third options all right okay let's finish our show with a regular weekly segment we call pick one and I'll go first this time because I gave you a heads up on what mine will be sure right I saw a Instagram clip of I don't think it was a hobby podcast but I think I was as a general sports podcast and they were highlighting three young outfielders right or three young I don't just James what I'll feel there yeah right field yeah or is he first base outfielder so okay three young outfielders and they're essentially saying you know regardless of their cards as an outfielder as a player who would you want on your team for the next five ten years that was a question so I'm relating this to the hobby and the three players are Pete crow Armstrong phenomenal season this year James would also hot start and also has a pedigree and then Corbin Carroll an amazing rebound year from last season last season he picked it up in the second half so he's continuing that you know continuing his hot ending with a hot start for the 2025 season so I picked out their gold refractor okay so the equivalent of investing five ten years you're going for their first Bowman gold refractor card okay and I this is the best concept I could come up with two of them are BGS 9.5 auto 10 and once a PSA 9 because I couldn't find a BGS 9.5 okay so the first one Pete crow Armstrong gold refractor first Bowman PSA 9 sold for $2,609 $2,600 okay PSA 10 sold for $11,000 recently so that's your comp but PSA 9 $2,600 will make that kind of equivalent to a BGS 9.5 maybe a little bit under James would gold refractor first Bowman BGS 9.5 sold for $4,400 and a Corbin Carroll gold refractor first Bowman BGS 9.5 sold for $4,500 what was the PCA's gold 9 was it 26 2,600 yeah that's pretty so if you if you get a BGS 9.5 right it could maybe bump up to a 4k yeah yeah make sense so yeah for me I'm going based not on price here because I feel like they're all equal in terms of price right now comp like I it seems about more or less yeah more or less yeah because Corbin Carroll is around 4k for a 9.5 wood is for four and a half and then PCA is 10 10k for 10 right yeah I'm going this is actually interesting because I thought it was gonna be who am I if I'm investing in as a player versus what's the better buy but I think they both go hand in hand because I'm you know how big I'm on well one all three guys you could build your team off of that's the beauty of it all three are studs I like the upside of James would the most out of all of them I just think that he hasn't even reached what we've seen from Corbin Carroll and Pete Krohn strong right now what we're seeing from PCA is his potential right so for me he was he was a guy that you know I was luckily enough to see actually put play same with Corbin Carroll so these guys are incredible baseball players and they're gonna help whatever team they're on but I think James would could potentially be in a different category I see James would as if if there's an Aaron judge type player who is it gonna be and the only person I could think of is someone like James would and for me I think he's gonna reach his potential in the next two three years where we're gonna be like whoa this guy is the real deal the problem is he is on Washington right so I'm going James would for four and a half on the gold I'm in on that for sure okay yeah just look at their stats and if you just look at their home run stolen bases I know it's just early ish in the season but PCA is 15 homers 21 stolen bases so he's stealing a lot a ton this year 276 average James would 16 homers 9 stolen bases actually that surprised me I thought he was not much of a runner but 9 stolen bases for a big guy to write 283 average which is pretty good and Corbin Carroll 259 average but he has 18 homers 10 stolen bases so the most which is a little surprising to being a smaller guy but showing a lot of power you're gonna say something yeah no I yeah I was just gonna say as much as PCA and maybe this will change your decision a bit or affect your decision as much as PCA and Corbin Carroll are hitting home runs right now I don't see them as 30 plus home run guys in general throughout their whole career as every year you're gonna get that type of production you know even Acuna is not like obviously Acuna you're you're hoping a good season he'll hit 30 plus no problem but even Acuna will have 20 to 30 home runs a season I think Corbin Carroll and Pete Crow Armstrong fall into that 15 to 30 home runs a season 30 plus would be a massive season James would on the other hand would be a 30 plus home run season every season with the upside of 50 plus that's the way I see yeah I mean even in our chat you've been playing up James Wood so that's kind of persuading me a little bit more but as of today I'm still going with my with my boy Corbin Carroll just a yeah last year I should have bought I'm like oh there's a great buy low opportunity when he had that slow first half and of course I didn't do anything about it but now I'm like FOMOing a little bit and I'm like I should have bought last year but and maybe it's the Asian bias he's half Asian maybe that's coming into place of consciously but I think it's I think he's a stud man and I think in this day and age there's something to be said about guys who can hit adequate power 20 to 30 home runs with the upside even of 30 plus 40 plus stolen bases I think Ronald Cooney has shown that you know that upside to have that kind of power speed blend of player and PCA of course has it I just think Corbin Carroll has a slightly longer track record already so that's why I'm going with Corbin Carroll in this case but if James Wood does start starts doing things like Aaron judge type things that can easily change my mind very quickly so so yeah I'm going with Corbin Carroll in this case nice all right you got a pick one that's good one yeah the show yeah I'm I think I'm gonna stay on Aaron judge until there's no good deals anymore or there's no yeah there's no cards left of him because he's so overpriced like Otani I still think he's underpriced compared to Otani like I said every week Aaron judge is doing Aaron judge things I don't think anybody in modern history is as close to Barry Bonds as Aaron judge even what Shohei Otani is doing I think Aaron judge what he's doing is just as spectacular if not more so I'm gonna stick with Aaron judge and I'm gonna go with like I said I think tops chrome is starting to really get expensive and you seen it if you bought tops chrome autos earlier this year you would have done really well and prices are starting to really go up and I chose two cards within that thousand to two thousand dollar range of Aaron judge auto because if I told you hey Clark there's a thousand to two thousand dollar autos of Shohei Otani in his rookie year you would totally be in on it right yeah a hundred percent Aaron judge we're gonna go with the color green because we love it so much okay so the green out of 99 a 2017 tops chrome auto raw of Aaron judge sold for 1450 Wow out of 99 so that's not bad a rookie out of 99 auto for 1450 raw June 1st I'm gonna pair that up with another green okay it's a little more expensive it's uh it's actually a year before it's Bowman's best green refractor auto at a 99 so this is one of those cards where it's not technically as rookie card it was kind of like a prospect auto but it's a PSA 10 and it sold for 2,000 bucks so Bowman's best a year before 2016 okay so these are like the best of 2016 autos right like the and they do have history to to be good cards if you see Oh Tony's Bowman's best they sell pretty decently but this one's a PSA 10 that sold for 2,000 bucks I see the listing actually on car ladders 1600 it sold for 600 offer oh it was the best offer okay perfect so it's it's right up the same price 600 yeah for a Bowman's best 2016 PSA 10 out of 99 for 1600 or a raw tops chrome at a 99 2017 rookie auto this is good because there's a lot of variables that makes it a little bit more complex right card for card ungraded raw if they're both raw I mean it's easy no tops chrome yes yeah it's got the brand power but the raw versus PSA 10 does that have enough of a factor is that enough of a factor to change my mind that's essentially the question because I'm like I mean if it looks good if the raw card looks good right assume that it doesn't look good because you got it you got it you got to remember there's a reason why it's raw that's true and PC sports cards the consignor sold it so they're a big consignor yeah they're just taking whatever and pumping it out right but does that really matter I would have to do I'm not gonna do it now but I'll have to do additional research I'm like what's a PSA worth yeah what's a PGS 9 worth or a okay I believe a blue wave auto mm-hmm I think recently a BGS 9 5 recently went on bids for like 4600 okay and I think that's out of 75 I could be wrong I didn't fully check that's a tops chrome BGS 9 5 blue wave I'm gonna take the risk I'll go for the tops chrome okay I feel like you know if it's a even a PC 7 let's say right I think over time if you're if you're a big believer in Aaron judge people are gonna know the tops chrome card that's gonna be more liquid in the long run I think versus like I didn't even know this 2016 Bowman's Best exist until you just mentioned it right now yeah you know and I'm like 2016 that's an odd year for him to have a Bowman's Best card so yeah I'm gonna go for the more familiar more reputable even more iconic tops chrome Brenton honestly we joke or I joke that we're you know big fans of the green refractor I don't like the green fracture but Aaron judge is the only one I'll make an assumption for just because of his jersey number 99 I can make that exception for. So, Topps Chrome Green, give that to me. Speaking of green, I don't know if you remember, during kind of like the hype in 2022 I would say, I bought a box of 2020 Topps Chrome, and it was such a bad box, but I got one hit. That was, and it was the last pack. And I pulled a green, Aaron Judge, Topps Chrome, out of 99. It was the SP, that was numbered 99 out of 99. I saw it, and you're in the showroom. Yeah, and then I graded it, and it graded it SGC 10. I ended up selling it though, but I should have kept it. You should have kept it. Hindsight's 20-20, but. I got my money back and more off the box, but like still, I should have kept it. But that was the story. And with that said, I think still Topps Chrome, just based on the way Fanatics is presenting everything, just based on history, flagship is gonna be king in the long run. And I think the Topps Chrome auto, rookie auto, regardless if it's not a hitting image, it's him jumping, right? Which is probably the worst image. But like, I think that will be the buy at that price point, regardless. Because I think the Bowman's best, I still like the Bowman's best card, but Topps Chrome flagship of someone like Aaron Judge, like look at Otani's Topps Chrome flagship rookie autos. Ridiculous, compared to Aaron Judge's. So to me, the opportunity is right there, regardless if it's raw. The auto looked semi-decent, so it's one of those things where, hey, what we talked about in the previous should be authentic auto 10 this, would be kind of like- It's a good candidate. Yeah, 100%. Yeah, that's a good one. I like it. And yeah, honestly, if you don't know what Judge is doing now, like there was a recent article on USA Today, just check out that article. Like his stats are unworldly right now. I think one of them that's really surprised me is like, if you include his walks and the number of hits this season, he's been on base every other at plate, essentially. Like who does that as a baseball player? He's guaranteed to be on base. That's essentially what the stat is saying. Yeah. Which is- Yeah, it's 500 OVP. I thought baseball was a game of failure. Not to Judge this year. Yeah, it's been a success. So that's kind of puts things into perspective on what Judge is doing. And telling you, I think at some point, you'll stop giving Aaron Judge a pick one because the value won't be there anymore. It won't be there anymore. And we won't talk about it. But we still talk about Otani, so who knows? Yeah, that's true. All right, another great show. I appreciate you guys. And yeah, we'll have a brand new episode for you on Friday. Talk to you then, bye. Hey, thanks for listening to Cards to the Moon. We'd really appreciate you subscribing to our podcast wherever you listen to your podcasts. And you can also connect with each of us on Instagram at fivecardguys, or you can follow Hyung at Integrity Sports Cards or John at TradeUAtRecess. You can also check us out at fivecardguys.com. Thanks again, and hope to connect soon.